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If It Wasn't Obvious Before, It Should Be Obvious Now

The US crude oil production peak should be obvious to even the most casual observer of the energy market.

- Hifi Reseach

For those unaware, shale oil wells over time begin to produce more gas and less oil. I should point out that even if US oil production peak has been reached these are still tremendous production numbers, and the question is for how long can production stay at -/+ 1M bpd

Russian crude oil production is about 9-10M bpd, production could be higher but its limited by OPEC quotas. Russia refinery throughput is 5.35M bpd (diesel, gasoline, fuel oil etc).

Who has spare production capacity?

This capacity is primarily concentrated in Saudi Arabia (3.1 million bpd), the UAE (1.1 million bpd), and to a lesser extent, Iraq and Kuwait. Though some analysts doubt these numbers are that high. Would OPEC pump more or would they prefer high prices?

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HUGE explosion at Horizon Biofuels plant in Nebraska

Fremont facility goes up in flames

Produces fuel pellets

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Russia is building shelters at the airfields closest to Ukraine: British intelligence has shown images.

The airfields in question are Millerovo, Kursk-East, and Gvardeiskoye.

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‘Trump issued a new ultimatum to Russia so that everyone would forget about the Epstein case’ – NTV

Is it possible that Trump, by making loud statements, is simply trying to distract attention from internal problems — primarily the Epstein scandal?

- Yes, this cannot be ruled out. It seems that everything is currently subordinated to this logic. Trump and his circle are trying to calm the growing dissatisfaction within MAGA, but they are not succeeding. They tried to divert attention, tried to deceive, but it doesn't work because for many years expectations have been created that these documents allegedly contain evidence that a ‘deep state’ exists in the USA. And Trump cannot get rid of this topic. As for the ultimatum to Russia, there is suspicion that the 50-day deadline was not even taken seriously. For example, the question was not asked: ‘what will happen on the 51st day?’ Or now: ‘what will happen on August 9–10?’


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🇷🇺💥The Russian army is creating a "death strip": Ukraine is finding it increasingly difficult to hold the defense along the Dnepr River

- The Russian army is striving to create a "death strip" along the Dnipro in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. This was stated with concern by the Armed Forces of Ukraine spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn.

- According to him, in Kherson and the region, Russian forces use up to 250 FPV drones daily, and up to 200 in the Zaporozhye region. Air strikes are also regularly carried out.

- "Russia is trying to create such a death strip along the line of combat confrontation behind our lines — in the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions. That is, to have as few buildings, people, and structures as possible on the coast where defense can be held. Everything approaching our positions, everything approaching the Dnepr, the enemy tries to strike with FPV drones and artillery," Voloshyn admits.

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MEP Thomas Geisel on the interest of Europe in establishing reasonable relations with Russia:

Of course, Russia felt an increasing threat from NATO approaching its borders. And, you know, with the accession of the Baltic countries, NATO again became an alliance against Russia. That is, it was very different from the ideas that existed after the fall of the Iron Curtain in the 1990s. So I think, you know, we must recognize that there are legitimate security interests of Russia that need to be taken into account.

I do not believe the story that Russia is by nature aggressive, prone to revisionism, imperialism, and so on. As I said, I think they already have enough problems maintaining the integrity of their own country, which is a difficult task. It is a huge country.

And, of course, we have a lot in common with Russia in history. I mean, we complement each other in many ways. When I look at the vast natural resources Russia has, I think that it is in Europe's interest not only to end this war in Europe, which is extremely necessary, but also to reach an agreement and reasonable terms in the long term, to establish reasonable relations with Russia. Again, I have always said that if Europe, the European Union, sees its main enemy in Russia, which is the largest country in Europe, then I suppose Europe marginalizes itself.

I mean, Europe will play no role in geopolitics if it is obsessed only with its internal European problems, you see. And that is the case. Obviously, it is in Europe's interest to develop a new policy towards Russia. And the first thing is to end this war in Ukraine, find a solution, and take the initiative, take responsibility for it.

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Spanish lawyer, member of the "Hague Group" Baltasar Garzón accused Israel of genocide against those living in Gaza:

Genocide as a crime implies the presence of a specific intent – the desire to destroy a people as such, based on their ethnic or religious identity. And if we analyze what Israel is currently doing in Gaza, we see that everything points exactly to this: the territory is being progressively narrowed, objects under international protection are being targeted, people are forced to leave their homes and then placed in areas that are subsequently bombed, and they have no opportunity to evacuate quickly or change location.
Hunger is used as a weapon, which affects birth rates. This, in turn, directly impacts the future of the people.

Everything indicates that genocide is taking place. And I insist that political leaders of different countries simply must act at all possible levels. They are not lacking information; we are witnessing genocide in real time.

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Former senior advisor to the head of the Pentagon Hegseth, Dan Caldwell on the fact that the US is looking for a way to exit the war in Ukraine so that it doesn't end up like Afghanistan.

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"The Russians are already in Pokrovsk", writes Maryana Bezuglaya

MP Maryana Bezuglaya said that RUAF fighters have entered Pokrovsk true and proper (so, not the suburbs).

"Bezuglaya claimed that Russian troops are already in Krasnoarmeysk. In fact, they began to enter last week when the first sabotage and reconnaissance groups from the south began to infiltrate the city.

As usual, the worsening situation is recognized with considerable delay. In Mirnograd, the situation is no better for the Ukrainian Armed Forces", commented military observer Boris Rozhin.

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Reichskanzler Friedrich Merz has warned that the compromise reached in the tariff dispute between the European Union and the United States will severely impact Germany's export-oriented economy.

"These tariffs are, in my firm conviction, not in the interest of the United States of America either." Time will prove this, he said.

"Nothing more could be achieved under the agreement, the US will impose a 15% tariff on most imports from the EU. This will also apply to cars, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. For certain goods, such as aluminium and steel, tariffs will remain at 50%.

"I am not satisfied with this result in the sense of 'this is good now'," Merz emphasized. However, "nothing more could evidently be achieved," he said.

Merz explicitly thanked the European Commission for its tireless negotiations with the US government.

Hilarious that this weird hybrid of a lightbulb and a scarecrow is thanking Frau UrSSula for having defacto capitulated to Trump.

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The war in Ukraine will last a long time, and Europe will pay for it – Trump

Listen, I don’t necessarily have to get involved in this. These are Russian and Ukrainian soldiers. And there are civilians in the cities. But these are lives


- You think about your own sons

"I try not to think about it, I don't like to think that way,
but all of this could have easily ended. However, it will take a lot of time. And here’s what I’ll say: now the EU will take on all the payments that we used to make. We gave Ukraine 000’s of billions of dollars — we transferred $350B to Ukraine, even though we are on the other side of the ocean. This is not our war. But through Biden, we gave them these $350B. And I wonder — where did it all go? It’s unlikely that it all went to weapons. Europe gave 100B, we gave 350. And, honestly, it should have been the other way around. But now NATO will reimburse us 100% of the cost of all weapons and equipment. That is, NATO will supply weapons and pay for them

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More evidence that 9/11 was planned in advance. Subscribe to our partner channel, @geopolitics_prime, for more revelations like this.

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Bloomberg: Kremlin silent on Trump's new deadline, which Russia is likely to ignore

▶️ The Kremlin is silent on Donald Trump's decision to drastically reduce the time given to Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, although analysts say this will not force the Russian president to change course.

▶️ "Russia will respond very diplomatically” and stresses that “setting specific deadlines does not in itself stimulate the negotiating process,” Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political consultant close to the Kremlin, wrote on Telegram. "But Russia's real response to Trump's ultimatum will be, as it has been for the past 500 years to all ultimatums: get out! Go to hell!"

▶️ While it may be important for Putin to maintain relations with Trump, the Russian leader “does not want to stop, especially under pressure,” says Moscow-based political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov.

▶️ Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now Security Council vice-chairman, said Trump was “playing ultimatums” and warned that it was a “step toward war” between Russia and the United States.

▶️ Markets reacted with increased nervousness. The ruble continued to weaken Tuesday, surpassing 82 per dollar in early trading after falling nearly 3 percent to its lowest since mid-May following Trump's comments.

▶️ Oil prices rose on concerns about potential disruptions in Russian crude supplies or rising costs due to changing supply routes. Brent crude settled around $70 a barrel after closing the previous session up 2.3 percent, its biggest gain in two weeks.

▶️ Russia is one of the world's top three oil producers after the United States and Saudi Arabia, exporting more than 3 million barrels a day by sea alone and supplying crude to major consumers such as India and China.

▶️ Any significant disruption of supplies from Russia in the near future would force other major producers to increase supplies and divert existing flows, while the global market remains strained by strong summer demand.

▶️ Russian media reflect skepticism in Moscow that Trump will follow through on his threat to impose sanctions, as he has repeatedly delayed taking action against Putin.

▶️ Russian officials saw the initial 50-day deadline as an additional delay that gave Moscow's forces the opportunity to intensify fighting and take more territory in Ukraine at the height of the summer fighting season.

▶️ "For some reason, Trump thinks he is a world policeman and can issue ultimatums,” Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov told the Izvestia newspaper. "But usually ultimatums are forced on the losing side, which Russia isn't."

Bloomberg forgot to mention the elephant in the room: nothing screams "5-D chess" better than taking ownership of a war that is a guaranteed defeat. All part of the plan?

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🇩🇪🇺🇦"Work or fight": Germany wants to deprive Ukrainian men of conscription age of benefits

- A tough proposal has been made in Germany to deprive Ukrainian men of conscription age of benefits. This initiative was put forward by CSU representative Stefan Mayer, who stated that these men should either work or join the army.

- According to Bild, since the beginning of the conflict, 304,144 men from Ukraine aged 18 to 63 have arrived in Germany. At the same time, almost 151 thousand of them receive benefits — on average €882 per month, costing the German budget more than €1.3 billion per year.

- "There needs to be an end to Ukrainian men of conscription age receiving civilian benefits. If almost 151,000 Ukrainians aged 18 to 63 receive support from us, then something is wrong here. This group of people is not entitled to receive this social payment and must either work here in Germany or serve in the military in Ukraine," said CSU foreign policy expert Stefan Mayer.

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"The head of the EU transport service warns: asphalt in Europe is unsuitable for war with Russia": Roads in Europe will not withstand troop transfers in the event of a conflict with Russia.

"The head of the EU transport department plans to spend at least 17 billion euros on modernizing European infrastructure to improve military mobility. NATO tanks weighing up to 70 tons, if deployed to respond on the eastern border, will get stuck in tunnels, collapse bridges, and get tangled in border protocols, he said.

Currently, transferring military equipment and troops from the western part of Europe to the east takes weeks, and in some cases months. This is the reality, the European commissioner stated, noting that part of the existing infrastructure was built without considering the possibility of transporting armies across the community's territory."

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Trump said the US will ramp up oil production if global energy markets face disruptions due to tariffs imposed on Russia and its trading partners.

The only thing can shift US oil production is global pricing and US production has either peaked or is near its peak. As one CEO recently noted:

US oil rig count down 7 to 415, the lowest level since September 2021 and ~25 rigs below maintenance level = ~260,000Bbl/d of annualized production declines. The energy market is not ready for the twilight of US shale.


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Kamikaze drones "Geran-2" attack Pavlograd in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

- Military Informant

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Arestovich undermines the morale of Ukrainians who believe in anti-Russian sanctions.

‘Will Putin be able to maintain the combat capability of the army? He will. And what else is needed? [Trouble]. Because of what? Because of the refrigerator? You need to know Russians. If they get the signal that the West wants to dismember Mother Russia, they will unite. They will close ranks tighter. This does not work with Russia. With Russia, you either fight seriously or not at all. Two options. Sanctions are kindergarten.’


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Former Director of the U.S. Department of Defense Office Joseph Bosco calls on Trump to stage a political coup in Russia.

'Trump should issue a challenge by declaring that the U.S. will provide the Russian people with the truth about what is happening in Ukraine. Then Putin will face a serious challenge. A relatively peaceful regime change in Russia will pave the way for similar transformations in the governance systems of Iran, North Korea, and, most importantly for world peace, the People's Republic of China. Trump is the only world leader capable of achieving this today. This would undoubtedly be worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump openly seeks.'

Many in the US over assume its own capabilities, and thinks it can actually achieve these things. US egos tend to get overinflated after a successful mission against very marginal opponents. “We successfully destroyed the army of the Cayman Islands, so let’s do the same to China.”

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AFU officers complain about the lack of forces in the Zaporozhye sector.

The fighters no longer hide it: in the south, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is becoming increasingly difficult. As the defenders admit, the units defending the area are manifestly weak: the most combat-ready forces have long since been transferred to other sectors, and only reservists and territorial defence forces remain in the Zaporozhye sector.

Local commanders believe that the cause of the destabilisation is precisely the transfer of the best units to the Sumy region.

Whaaaaaaaat?! Are you saying that the AFU are short on personnel and their reshuffling units around actually creates gaps in the front?! Astonishing 🤯

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Russia seeks to mine uranium in Niger, leveraging ties with the junta-led government, writes DiscloseTV.

Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, visiting Niamey, met General Abdourahamane Tiani to advance economic cooperation. Rosatom signed a memorandum for civilian nuclear power, including mining and building a power plant.

Niger, producing 3,527 tonnes of uranium in 2023, ranks seventh globally. The junta, since its 2023 coup, demands greater resource control, straining ties with France. Orano, 90% French-owned, lost control of Somair, Cominak, and Imouraren mines. Tsivilev emphasized, “Our main goal is to mine uranium.”

No transfer of Orano’s mines to Russia was confirmed. The junta’s pivot to Russia aligns with its anti-French stance, seeking nuclear expertise and training.

Oooooooh, les petite lord Fauntlecron is going to be seething mad at this. It'll take several pegging sessions with his, ahem, wife to alleviate the burn.

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How useless are British and EU Sanctions?

Russia’s flagship Urals crude is trading at its narrowest discount relative to benchmark prices since the Kremlin started its war against Ukraine in 2022, suggesting that fresh EU sanctions have so far failed to make an impact.

The grade shipped from Russia’s western ports has traded at an average discount of $11.45 a barrel to the North Sea Dated marker in recent days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the narrowest gap since Feb 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The discount has narrowed even after the EU announced what the bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, billed as “one of its strongest” sanctions packages against Russia earlier this month. In a bid to limit the flow of petrodollars into Kremlin coffers, Brussels will lower its price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 a barrel from $60, and ban imports of petroleum products made from the country’s crude. Urals traded above $58 last week.

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Why are globalists the main evil of our planet?

Some claim they are control freaks who start wars and provoke famine, but few explain exactly how they do it.

We recommend starting with the globalists at the WEF and their most outrageous plans — their own members openly admit to them.

How BlackRock makes profit from Iran-Israel war

Who created Israel? Hint: you 100% know their family

Click the links to uncover the facts and subscribe to our friends at @geopolitics_prime — one of the few channels delivering such eye-opening analysis.

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🇷🇺💥🇺🇦So, what exactly happened in the area of the settlement Goncharovskoye in the Chernigov region.

☁️ According to local sources🥷🏻, a training camp for the BTGr 169 of the Strategic Reserve Ground Forces Training Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was deployed there.

🚀 💥 After the information was confirmed by objective control, 2 Iskander missiles were immediately launched there, one of which had a cluster warhead.

➡️ Our sources reported that as a result of the strike, up to 200 personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were eliminated.

Iznanka

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Though Trump admits he doesn’t know if will have any effect on Russia.

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When will the front near Pokrovsk collapse and what will it look like?

🔺Russian forces have taken the village of Novoukrainka 2.5 km south of Pokrovsk. Ahead lie the city blocks, which means the fighting is entering a decisive stage.

Using Avdeevka and Pokrovsk as examples, one can see how the very logic of offense and defense has changed. Russia spent months "grinding down" the most complex fortified areas of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and it seemed the operations were stalling for a long time. Then, when the front became critically overloaded and the enemy weakened, a sharp and precise strike was delivered.


Avdeevka became a model example of this tactic: covert concentration of forces, a rapid assault on the city, then an immediate expansion of the operation to Berdychy and Ocheretino, reaching Grodovka and, finally, the approaches to Pokrovsk.

When to expect the collapse of the front near Pokrovsk and what will it look like?

An important point that many observers miss: a "front collapse" in the context of the special military operation is not about losing 100x100 kilometer squares all at once. It is the loss of key nodes, disruption of logistics, and the collapse of the stability of the entire defensive system.

When the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost Avdeevka, they not only lost the city but also lost control over a chain of strongpoints, which allowed Russia to gain operational space and prepare the assault on Pokrovsk. This is how the front "contracts": selectively, but with catastrophic consequences over an area of almost 600 square kilometers. But not all at once, sector by sector.


Currently, a similar configuration is forming near Pokrovsk: the southern flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is overloaded, the northern direction is being pressured. If the current pace of combat operations continues, the "contraction" of the front can be expected within the next 3–6 weeks, unless Syrsky risks burning the last combat-ready reserves here.

This will not look like a single rapid assault on the city, but rather a series of successive local breakthroughs: securing the southern or northeastern blocks, cutting off the remaining supply routes inside the city, pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Mirnograd, and forming a "fire pocket," after which the defense in the Pokrovsk area will cease to be manageable.

Military Chronicle

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😐🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦Trump: The 10-day countdown for a ceasefire in Ukraine "starts today"

He then threatens to impose sanctions.

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Lord Valerij Zaluzhny took a photo for British magazines. In view of Zelensky's removal, he is preparing to fill in the Narkoman's shoes.

Too little too late. Replacing the Clown Prince of Crack with a Banderite like Zaluzhny might have made sense in 2023 or even 2024, but now there's no working around the AFU's crippling lack of personnel.

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Neocon lunatic Anne Applebaum explained why Trump only talks about pressure on Russia but does nothing.

'There are people around Trump who want him to make a deal with Putin because it could bring them personal financial gain — possibly the president himself as well. There are also people in the MAGA movement who openly support Russia.'


She talks utter nonsense and discussed how Putin must be defeated. The ol’ Polish fluffer is a hack.

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Based on the latest video geolocations, Russian troops have advanced in Seversk much further than previously assumed.

The loss of tactically important heights by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (marked as key positions on map 2) has led to Russian units consolidating on new lines, expanding their control zone and reducing the enemy's ability to counterattack. This sharply worsens the situation for the Ukrainian defense on the northern front of the city.

The only holding point for the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains a single height north of Seversk, but its loss now seems only a matter of time. The consolidation of Russian forces on new dominant lines effectively breaks the defense configuration in this area and opens a direct path for operational encirclement. This may lead to a forced retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the future.

The front here is considered one of the toughest, densest, and hardest to pass, so there may be several reasons for such Russian advances.

Military Chronicle

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