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Independent researcher/writer based in Hong Kong since 1997. Reformed academic. My long-form, analytical articles are collected here https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com/ email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
Ouch, that’s gonna leave a bruise on US producers. China is the biggest market for U.S. agriculture products despite a decline in imports since 2018 after Beijing imposed tariffs on soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum in retaliation for duties on Chinese goods imposed by Trump.
China imported $29.25 billion worth of U.S agriculture products in 2024. @LauraRuHK
Six months before Trump was elected president, Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank that led Project 2025 – a sort of road map for Trump 2.0 – recommended a policy of deliberate ambiguity toward China to determine the tempo, tenor, and contours of Sino-U.S. competition in the coming years.
A bipartisan think tank, Brookings, echoed that recommendation as Trump was forming his cabinet. ▪️Some researchers have suggested that Trump’s seemingly erratic behaviour makes him an ideal conveyor of a U.S. policy based on the strategic ambiguity that gained much currency during the Nixon’s administration and was described as the Madman Theory. It dates back to at least 1517 when Niccolò Machiavelli wrote in The Prince that sometimes it is “a very wise thing to simulate madness.” The inklings of an idea that appeared in the work of Machiavelli eventually inspired a coterie of Harvard University scholars that included Henry Kissinger to ponder the limitations of rationality in grand strategy during the late 1950s and early 1960s – a rational U.S. president would seek to avoid a nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union at all costs, but a “convincingly mad” one could credibly threaten large risks and therefore make the adversary blink first.
▪️What is certain is that the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity vis-à-vis China long predates Trump’s presidency and will likely continue to underpin Washington’s diplomatic engagement with China and Russia. Such engagement is being conceptualized as the most promising one to both avoid military confrontation at a time when the U.S. isn’t prepared for it, and to offer both real and imaginary incentives to ensure the Sino-Russian partnership won’t deepen even further. ▪️Read more in my latest article https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/03/01/maga-effect-on-us-china-relations-strategic-ambiguity-on-steroids/
Keir Starmer confirmed that Zelensky will star in the British sequel of "Our Ukraine" - the large budget film that propelled the obscure Ukrainian actor into a blazing career. They signed a £2.26bn ($2.8 bn) loan for military supplies. The film producer claimed that the loan would be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets. @LauraRuHK
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The Machiavellian "Madman Theory", strategic ambiguity, hybrid warfare, tariffs galore, attempts to derail the "no-limit" partnership between China and Russia, the emergence of a multipolar order, efforts to stem imperial decline. This, and more in my latest article.
▪️Six months before Trump was elected president, Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank that led Project 2025 recommended a policy of deliberate ambiguity toward China to keep Beijing off balance and determine the tempo, tenor, and contours of Sino-U.S. competition. ▪️Trump’s “revolution of common sense” is a return to conservative values, but the economy and society are so broken that it will take a long time for the country to gain a competitive edge over China, if ever. MAGA appears as a clumsy attempt to install a new cultural software without upgrading the system and that’s why it is doomed to fail. https://lauraruggeri.substack.com/p/the-maga-effect-on-us-china-relations?utm_source=activity_item
Four years ago, when the Biden administration took office, I mapped out the likely trajectory of its future policy toward China in a lengthy article titled Hybrid War on China that was subsequently published in a Chinese news outlet. I argued that the U.S., faced with the emergence of a multipolar world order, was growing increasingly desperate to arrest the decline of its hegemony and would pursue an aggressive policy based on the rigid assertion of its liberal ideology. I expected it would continue to frame it as an existential battle between democracy and authoritarianism although that narrative, and the ideology underpinning it, was becoming increasingly ineffective — many societies had developed antibodies against the messianic promotion of Western liberalism. My analysis stood the test of time until the Biden administration was relegated to the dustbin of history. Now, in order to speculate about the evolution of China-US relations we must overhaul that analysis and take into account the ideological thrust, ambitions and sweeping reforms of the new administration. And that's what i intended to do in an article i finished last week. It will be published soon, in English and Italian. Stay tuned. @LauraRuHK
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The rare earths market is currently over-supplied, and has been so for a few years, prices are down due to strong output from China and a slowing demand. metal.com/Rare-Earth-Me…
Sure, the US and Australia are trying to challenge China’s market dominance by unlocking significant deposits, but price decline has made it unprofitable to develop new projects.
For this reason, we need to consider what could be the undeclared motive behind Trump’s mineral deal with Zelensky, given that Ukraine’s mineral wealth is overestimated, resource-rich regions are under Russian control, and Trump hasn’t taken into account the viability or cost of developing Ukraine’s mineral reserves.
The latest draft of the agreement would see Kiev pay 50 percent of revenues from its state-owned natural resources into a fund that would invest in Ukraine. There would be no U.S. security guarantees in return.
Sergey Savchuk in an article published today by RIA Novosti outlines some of these ulterior motives. I invite you to read it, with the help of a translator if you don’t understand Russian.
By gaining control over Ukraine's rare earth metals the U.S. could also gain control over its economy. If the agreement is signed by Zelensky and ratified by the Rada, the U.S. will be able to prohibit transactions, will receive a mandatory share, and will be able to manipulate the issuance and revocation of subsoil use licenses. But the main thing is that the U.S. will be able to legally seize Ukraine's external assets, at the slightest, most far-fetched pretext. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, these assets are now estimated at more than $ 40 billion.
In addition, the charter of the Ukraine Recovery Fund is expected to include a clause according to which the U.S. government will be able to independently, without consulting with Kiev, invest in the most promising sectors of the economy. Among them, nuclear energy.
Ratification of the agreement actually opens a legal corridor for the United States to establish control over all the most important and profitable sectors of the Ukrainian economy. At the same time, since there is no deadline or termination conditions in the agreement, the United States receives full indirect possession of the entire country, the largest in Europe. @LauraRuHK https://ria.ru/20250227/soglashenie-2001808132.html
Ukraine has agreed terms with US on minerals deal - with no security guarantee for Kiev. Trump told reporters on Tuesday evening that his Ukrainian counterpart is "coming to visit on Friday".
He added: "We have pretty much negotiated our deal on rare earths." The deal sets out the terms to create a new fund to invest in Ukraine's minerals, rare earth materials and other valuable natural resources.Washington views the minerals deal with Ukraine as a way to recoup the billions of dollars that the US has given Kiev. Of course, US companies won't be able to access these resources until the war stops, and even then it will take a long time before they can ensure the safety of their operations and rebuild the necessary infrastructure to start mining. Now the question is, how are EU countries going to recoup the money THEY have handed over to Zelensky and his gang? In order to get their slice of the mineral pie they will have to come to a compromise with the Americans. And even if they do, their share will be pitiful and insufficient to offset the damage they have done to their economies by breaking ties with Russia and buying liquefied gas instead of relying on the gas pipelines that delivered cheaper gas from Russia. They supported the criminal regime in Kiev and all they have got to show for it is a wave of Ukrainian immigrants. The day of reckoning is approaching and the blame game may even destroy the EU. @LauraRuHK
Kirill Dmitriev | World Economic Forum
https://www.weforum.org/people/kirill-dmitriev/
The German Government has, since the start of the war, made available around 43.62 billion euro in bilateral support for Ukraine (as of 31 December 2024) according to auswaertiges-amt.de, the federal foreign office. Now take a look at this 👉 /channel/geopolitics_live/44638
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Today i received a message from a friend who wondered if i knew Jianwei Xun, the Hong Kong author of a book titled Hypnocracy: Trump, Musk and the New Architecture of Reality. I had read a paper published by Jianwei Xun last year, but couldn't find any information about him. Prompted by my friend's question, today i decided to dig a bit deeper. On academia.edu Xun claims to be a Research Fellow at the Institute for Critical Digital Studies in Berlin. Well, the institute doesn't exist. Xun writes on his website that he studied political philosophy and media at Dublin University (which one??) and spent years consulting on strategic narratives for global institutions before dedicating himself to writing. Again, there is no trace of his academic output or professional activity anywhere. So, i asked a few ex-colleagues who still work at Hong Kong universities, and not a single one of them has ever met Xun or heard his name before 2024 when the book was published and promptly translated into Italian and French. The author asks What if the truth is no longer something to be revealed, but something to be constructed, engineered, and sold? Maybe that's the answer to my friend's question. https://www.academia.edu/125645811/The_Hypnotic_Architecture_of_Digital_Power_Algorithmic_Trance_and_the_End_of_Shared_Reality
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Terror attack on Russia’s Consulate General in Marseille.
According to preliminary information, there have been no casualties. Russian Foreign Ministry's response
- The explosions at the Russian Consulate General in Marseille resemble a terrorist attack. Moscow demands a thorough investigation from Paris, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told TASS.
SVR’s alert
- On February 19, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported that Ukrainian authorities are considering the possibility of carrying out terror attacks against Russian diplomatic missions in Europe, particularly in Germany and the Baltic and Scandinavian countries.
- According to the agency, it is not excluded that the Ukrainians may choose Slovakia and Hungary for these purposes.
- The SVR believes that this will provide "additional advantage" to the Kiev regime because it will discredit those EU countries that have adopted a unique stance with regard to the Ukraine conflict. @LauraRuHK
Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski has stated that he does not believe it is possible to disconnect the Starlink satellite communication terminals in Ukraine because....Poland signed the contract and pays for them.▪️Warsaw bought and transferred nearly 20,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine and will continue to pay the subscription fees.
On 22 February, Reuters reported that US negotiators have been considering the possibility of disconnecting Ukraine from Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system if Ukraine does not agree to their terms on the mineral agreement.
@LauraRuHK
Like everyone, I read and discussed Kishore Mahbubani's latest article. I have quite a few reservations about his analysis and recommendations. First, he talks about Europe as a geopolitical actor but doesn't define it. Is he referring to the EU? To European states, including those outside the EU? Or to European states that are members of NATO? He probably means the latter, as he writes
"Europe should announce its willingness to quit NATO. A Europe that is forced to spend 5 percent on defense is a Europe that doesn’t need the United States."
"Eventually, Europe need not quit. But only a credible threat to leave would wake up Trump (and Vice President J.D. Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth) and force him to treat Europe with respect."
Europe should "work out a new grand strategic bargain with Russia, with each side accommodating the other’s core interests.[...] The Russians would likely be happy to work out a fair compromise with the EU. [...] Ukraine could gradually serve as a bridge between the EU and Russia rather than as a bone of contention. Brussels should consider itself fortunate that, in relative terms, Russia is a declining power, not a rising power."
I’ve been summoned by a subscriber to quit my secret side gig of "propping up authoritarian regimes." Well, that was the gist of the message, which contained a few expletives i am too ladylike to repeat. So, just because it's Sunday, i have decided to take a break from that dishonourable activity and post something that will restore my reputation in the eyes of sincere democrats. https://www.academia.edu/11537403/_The_Poetics_of_Urban_Inscription_from_Metaphorical_Cognition_to_Counter_representation_Critical_Architecture_edited_by_Jane_Rendell_Mark_Dorrian_Jonathan_Hill_Murray_Fraser_Routledge_2008
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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed a declaration to expedite delivery of approximately $4 billion in military assistance to the genocidal entity.
The Trump administration has approved nearly $12 billion in military sales to Israel, Rubio said in a statement, adding that it "will continue to use all available tools to fulfill America’s long-standing commitment to Israel’s security, including means to counter security threats."
Rubio said he had used emergency authority to expedite the delivery.
@LauraRuHK
A show in the Oval Office... and the reality of war. Elena Panina writes:
"In accordance with section 202 (d) of the Law on National Emergencies (50 U.S.C. 1622(d), I am extending for one year the state of emergency in the country declared in Decree 13660," with this phrase, on February 27, Trump extended for a year the anti—Russian sanctions imposed by Barack Obama on March 6. In 2014, due to the reunification of Crimea with Russia. Further, during the years of his first presidency, Trump and then Joe Biden expanded the list of sanctions under this "emergency regime" several times.
It is noteworthy that on the same day, February 27, negotiations between Russia and the United States on the normalization of diplomatic cooperation took place at the American Embassy in Turkey.
The other day, the same US president said this: "Right now we are not providing anything [to Ukraine in the military field]." However, the facts suggest otherwise. Just during the period from February 21 to February 24 at least 6 commercial airline Boeing transports, two C-17A transports of the US Air Force and one Ukrainian An-124 with military assistance for the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrived at the Polish airfield in Rzeszow (/channel/operline_ru/42366 )
And here is the data (/channel/operline_ru/42327 ) on the work of the Ukrainian Express in Rzeszow during the first month of Trump's presidency: at least 54 flights of commercial Boeing transport aircraft from US air bases and the Arabian Peninsula, at least 10 flights by C-17A and C-130 military transport aircraft of the US Air Force from US air bases, Europe and the Arabian Peninsula, at least 6 flights by Ukrainian AN-124 transporters from US air bases.
In addition, since February 10, Rzeszow has received at least 11 flights of Canadian Air Force C-130J aircraft from Air Base Karup in Denmark — with military cargo, most likely they arrived from the US to Europe by sea.
Apparently, this is what the Trump administration understands by a "favorable" negotiating background, constantly repeating that they have made "very good" progress in resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
Today the new American authorities continue (/channel/EvPanina/15954 ) the policy of the previous administration towards Russia, including regularly supplying weapons to Kiev and extending long—term sanctions against our country. Against this background, Kiev's relentless terrorism is casting a shadow over the new US administration, which is not in too much of a hurry to stop it. /channel/EvPanina/15954
Dmitry Medvedev:
For the first time, Trump told the cocaine clown the truth to his face: the Kiev regime is playing with World War III. And the insolent pig finally got a proper slap from the owners of the pigsty. That's good. But not enough - military aid to the Nazi machine must be stopped.
Russian Security Council Chief Sergey Shoigu is in Beijing for bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping & FM Wang Yi. /channel/smotri_media/103524
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Teoria machiavellica del Pazzo, ambiguita' strategica, guerra ibrida, dazi dazi dazi, i tentativi di far deragliare il partenariato "senza limiti" tra Cina e Russia, l'emergere di un ordine multipolare, declino imperiale. Questo, e molto altro, nel mio ultimo articolo per L'Antidiplomatico.
Il MAGA (Make America Great Again) appare come un tentativo maldestro di installare un nuovo software culturale senza aggiornare il sistema ed è per questo che è destinato a fallire. @LauraRuHK https://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-leffetto_maga_sulle_relazioni_usacina_cresce_lambiguit_strategica/5871_59336/
Something doesn't add up in the arrest of Calin Georgescu. Elon Musk defended him, reposted Georgescu's comments as well as podcasts, labelled the chief judge of Romania's top court a "tyrant". US vice-president JD Vance questioned the cancellation of Romania's election at the Munich Security Conference, using it as an example of undemocratic censorship of free speech and political opponents by European governments. And in the context of the war of words between the EU and Washington, Romanian authorities arrest Georgescu. Is this just sheer stupidity? Persecuting the most popular candidate will add to his popularity and if he isn't allowed to run, the elections will be regarded as a farce. Or is there more to it? @LauraRuHK
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Modi likely to attend Victory Day parade in Moscow
The Indian prime minister could attend this year’s event on May 9, which marks 80 years since the Soviet Union declared victory over Nazi Germany. (Source: TASS) Xi Jinping has also accepted the invitation and will be watching the military parade on Red Square, among several other leaders. @LauraRuHK
Kirill Dmitriev was part of the Russian negotiation team that met its US counterpart in Riyadh. And Vladimir Putin officially appointed him as a Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries. 🤔 What is going on? Is this a case of "it doesn't matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice?"
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https://en.interaffairs.ru/article/vladimir-putin-in-order-to-resolve-challenging-and-urgent-matters-including-on-the-ukrainian-trac/
President of Russia Vladimir Putin answered questions from journalist Pavel Zarubin, Kremlin informs. February 24, 2025. Novo-Ogaryovo, Moscow Region. Pavel Zarubin: Mr President, we have just watched your meeting on rare-earth metals. Forgive me, but I believe that right now, all journalists around the world are interested in rare-earth metals, …
read more on our website https://en.interaffairs.ru/
Russian soft power - Ahead of Defender of the Fatherland Day, which Russia celebrates on February 23, the Russian army released its own, revised version of Sigma Boy, the Meme song that is driving everyone crazy. The track was originally released by two schoolgirls, Svetlana Chertischeva (11 years old) and Maria Yankovskaya (12 years old), on October 4, 2024 and quickly went viral on TikTok and YouTube. Users began to create dance videos and reels for it, which significantly increased its reach. On YouTube, the track has garnered over 90 million views, and on Spotify, it topped the Viral 50 Global charts.
The expression "sigma-boy" arose at the intersection of social networks, Internet culture and youth communities. This concept appeared as a reaction to existing stereotypes about men, in particular about the so-called "alpha" and "beta" males. Unlike his "competitors", the Sigma Boy does not seek to adapt to generally accepted standards and lives by his own rules. @LauraRuHK /channel/ukraine_watch/37475
In Kiev, the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, didn't pass a resolution on extending Zelensky's powers "until the newly elected President of Ukraine takes office".
The vote was held in the presence of European Commissioners. 🤣
"Zelensky must exercise his powers until the newly elected President of Ukraine takes office in accordance with Part One of Article 108 of the Constitution of Ukraine." Yes or No? The resolution was supported by only 218 members of the Rada out of 450. @LauraRuHK
Putin and Xi stressed that Russian-Chinese relations play a stabilizing role in world affairs, are not directed against others, and are strategic in nature. ▪️"Vladimir Putin informed Xi Jinping about the recent Russian-American contacts," the Kremlin said in a statement. "The Chinese side expressed support for the dialogue, as well as readiness to assist in the search for ways to peacefully resolve the Ukrainian conflict."
"China is pleased to see how Russia and relevant parties are making efforts to de-escalate the Ukrainian conflict," Xi said.
During their long telephone conversation, the two leaders had an in-depth exchange of views on the further development of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China. Mutually beneficial cooperation in the fields of economy and trade, investment, culture, education and sports was also discussed. @LauraRuHK
FRIEDRICH MERZ: GERMANY’S FUTURE LEADER OR BLACKROCK'S PAWN?
🚨 Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old CDU leader, is seen as a potential German chancellor. Some even call him Europe's "savior." But what do his ties to BlackRock reveal about his true priorities? Let’s dive in. 📈MERZ & BLACKROCK: A STRATEGIC ALLIANCE?
Merz is a career politician who joined the CDU at 17 and served as a deputy to Merkel. In 2016, BlackRock appointed him to lead its German supervisory board, valuing his political connections. 💼BlackRock sought Merz to expand its influence in Europe, grow its business, and deflect criticism. He was highly valued at BlackRock, even by CEO Larry Fink. 🌍By 2020, when Merz left, BlackRock had expanded its EU footprint to hold over 15% of Germany’s top 30 firms (DAX30) alongside Vanguard. 💣BlackRock has been accused of shaping EU policies to serve its own financial interests. "No company in Germany can ignore BlackRock’s opinion," according to Handelsblatt. 🏢This influence extends to major companies like Siemens and more. With this power, what’s really driving Merz’s political ambitions? 💥MERZ’S HAWKISH STANCE: SERVING BLACKROCK?
A staunch NATO and EU supporter, Merz advocates for a centralized Europe under stronger German leadership, reducing national sovereignty. 🛡 He supports dismantling national armies in favor of an EU military force, a move that aligns with BlackRock’s interests, given the firm’s massive investments in global defense. Merz strongly supports sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, risking further escalation with Russia. This militarist approach benefits BlackRock, which has significant stakes in arms manufacturers. 💰BlackRock manages $11.55T in assets and holds $80.8B in arms manufacturers, raising serious concerns about the financial motivations behind its geopolitical influence. (Source: Sputnik, Feb.15) @LauraRuHK
Vladimir Zelensky wildly misled US President Donald Trump when he boasted about Ukraine’s mineral deposits, Artyom Dmitruk, a member of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, told RT.
Zelensky offered the US a partnership to develop Ukraine’s minerals. “The Americans helped the most, and therefore the Americans should earn the most. And they should have this priority, and they will,” he told Reuters this month. He claimed that Ukraine has Europe’s largest titanium deposits, while Prime Minister Denis Shmigal wrote in an op-ed for Politico that the country’s subsoil contains “22 out of the 30 minerals listed as critical for the EU.”
Speaking to RT on Thursday, Dmitruk argued that Zelensky’s tactic was deceptive. “It is an issue on which Zelensky has once again fooled the whole world, and, more specifically, Donald Trump and his team,” Dmitruk said.
“First, all of these resources, the rare-earth minerals, are currently located on the territories with active combat. Second, no one can say what the price of extracting these resources will be,” he added.
“If these precious resources could have been mined so easily and on such a large scale as Zelensky promised, and if it would have been profitable, the companies in Ukraine would have started doing it long ago. It is yet another lie, another farce that Zelensky attempts to exploit.” In an op-ed for Bloomberg on Wednesday, commodities expert Javier Blas wrote that Trump’s expectations of a deal for Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals are grossly exaggerated. He said Ukraine “has no significant rare-earth deposits other than small scandium mines.”
Zelensky acknowledged earlier this month that around half of its rare-earth deposits are “under Russian occupation,” according to Reuters. (Source: RT) @LauraRuHK