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Researcher & writer based in Hong Kong. Former academic. Longform articles archived at https://lauraruggeri.substack.com and https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com. Email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
Bruxelles ha deciso: un dazio del 79% sulle stoviglie in ceramica cinesi. Tazze, piatti e ciotole — quegli oggetti quotidiani "dual-use" che, se lanciati, potrebbero fare male a qualcuno. Scherzi a parte, la Commissione Europea la chiama una "misura antidumping", per contrastare esportazioni vendute al di sotto del “valore normale”. Valore stabilito da chi? Da qualche lobby di settore, come Cerame‑Unie?
Il risultato è facilmente prevedibile: i consumatori europei pagheranno di più per beni essenziali, in un contesto già esasperato dall’inflazione. I prezzi bassi dei prodotti cinesi non derivano da sussidi “sleali”, bensì da scala produttiva, efficienza e costi energetici inferiori. E chi ha privato i produttori europei dell’energia russa a buon mercato? Sempre Bruxelles.
Non si tratta di un episodio isolato, ma dell'ennesimo tassello nel mosaico delle barriere commerciali che l’UE continua a innalzare contro la Cina. Quanto ai produttori e ai consumatori europei, sappiate a chi rivolgere i ringraziamenti. Un consiglio: maneggiate con cura i piatti che lavate. Sostituirli ora vi costerà molto di piu'. @LauraRuHK
China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said China “will do what it can” to assist Havana and again condemned “inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban people of their right to survival and development”. Beijing has pledged to continue supporting Cuba to the best of its ability.
Lin emphasized China’s firm position in defending Cuba's national sovereignty and opposing any form of external pressure or intervention.
Lin didn't mention any concrete programme, saying the next moves would “depend on bilateral consultations” with Havana. Any help is likely going to be pragmatic and under the radar. @LauraRuHK
Why J.D. Vance's nuclear promises to Armenia are ridiculous. To displace Russian peaceful nuclear energy he promoted "US modular nuclear power plants". Problem is, they only exist on paper. While the US has invested billions (via DOE programs like ARDP, recent $800M+ awards), streamlined licensing, and pushed aggressively under recent administrations, no modular nuclear power plant has been physically built and made operational on American soil.
Meanwhile, prior to Vance's tour of South Caucasus, a disinformation campaign had tried to convince Armenians that their Soviet-era nuclear power plant was unsafe. Read more ➡️
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US Vice President J.D. Vance arrived in Armenia February 9 and is due in Azerbaijan on February 11–12 as part of a trip aimed at advancing the peace agreement between the two countries brokered in Washington last August. The US intends to accelerate development of the 27-mile strategic transit corridor running through southern Armenia along the Iranian border and linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. The US is clearly seeking a geopolitical realignment across the South Caucasus and Eurasia to create a new geo-economic space controlled by the West stretching from Eastern Europe and the Black Sea through Türkiye, the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Central Asia, South Asia, and the Arabian Sea. I don't need to tell you that this has serious implications for Russia, China and Iran. During Vance's visit, the US and Armenia announced the completion of a civil nuclear energy accord, known as a “123 Agreement,” which paves the way for U.S. participation in Armenia’s nuclear projects.
Vance also confirmed the approval of $11 million in V-BAT reconnaissance drones for Armenia.
The two sides further explored opportunities for cooperation in strategic sectors, including the extraction and supply of critical minerals and rare earth elements. @LauraRuHK
The plan outlined in the Politico article for fast-tracking Ukraine's EU membership by 2027 is the epitome of wishful thinking. The Ukrainian-born journalist who put it together is as divorced from reality as the drugged up comedian in Kiev. The 2027 plan is predicated on accelerated reforms in Ukraine, phased "membership-lite," overcoming Hungary's veto, leveraging Donald Trump, and potentially suspending Hungary's voting rights. However, multiple structural, political, and practical barriers make this timeline unrealistic and improbable. Diplomats have dismissed the idea as "nonsense," noting Ukraine is "nowhere near ready". The plan relies on Orbán's electoral defeat in April 2026 which is far from certain. Even if defeated, a new government may not immediately shift stance. As a last resort, invoking Article 7 to suspend Hungary's voting rights over rule-of-law issues has never been fully implemented due to political risks and lack of consensus among other EU members. A "reverse enlargement" or phased membership would erode the merit-based process, creating double standards for other candidates (e.g., Western Balkans) and risking "second-class" membership perceptions. The vast majority of Europeans reject Ukraine membership and even Berlin expressed reservations.
Last but not least, the plan assumes Trump will tie EU accession to a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but the conflict shows no sign of ending any time soon.
@LauraRuHK
https://www.politico.eu/article/5-steps-ukraine-eu-membership-2027/
La scadenza del trattato New START, che in passato limitava gli arsenali nucleari strategici di Russia e Stati Uniti, ha modificato in modo significativo il panorama della sicurezza globale. Il rappresentante permanente della Russia presso l’Ufficio ONU di Ginevra, Gennady Gatilov, ha dichiarato a Izvestia che l’estensione del “ombrello nucleare” statunitense all’Asia rappresenta una minaccia ulteriore per la sicurezza russa e mina la stabilità internazionale.
Ha sottolineato la crescente “pianificazione nucleare congiunta” tra Stati Uniti e Corea del Sud, con un possibile coinvolgimento del Giappone, nonché lo sviluppo di infrastrutture militari nucleari in Australia nell’ambito di accordi come AUKUS. Praticamente, si replicherebbe in Asia quanto avviene in seno alla NATO, in cui alleati non nucleari come Belgio, Germania, Italia, Paesi Bassi e Turchia già ospitano armi nucleari americane.
Come possibile risposta militare, la Russia potrebbe dispiegare missili a medio e corto raggio — incluso il nuovo sistema ipersonico Oreshnik — nel suo Estremo Oriente, ad esempio in Chukotka, secondo l’esperto Tigran Meloyan della Higher School of Economics. Meloyan ha aggiunto che il crescente coinvolgimento degli Stati Uniti nella regione potrebbe accelerare e rafforzare la partnership strategica tra Russia, Cina e Corea del Nord, portando a una maggiore prontezza nella deterrenza nucleare e a esercitazioni congiunte più frequenti.
In uno scenario estremo, Mosca potrebbe persino valutare il posizionamento di missili ipersonici a medio e corto raggio in Corea del Nord, sebbene abbia sottolineato che ciò rimane prematuro e che la Russia reagirebbe solo in base alle azioni delle altre potenze nucleari, senza avviare un’escalation. L’accordo di partenariato globale firmato nel 2024 tra Russia e Pyongyang, che include elementi nucleari, fornisce una base per tali considerazioni, ma Mosca privilegia la moderazione a meno di provocazioni.
Nel complesso, questi sviluppi evidenziano le crescenti preoccupazioni per una nuova corsa agli armamenti e per il mutamento delle dinamiche di deterrenza in Asia dopo la fine del trattato New START. @LauraRuHK ➡️ https://iz.ru/2038217/kirill-fenin/yadernyj-zond-rf-predupredila-o-novyh-ugrozah-v-azii
La Russia ha tutto il diritto di considerare il Regno Unito come un co-beliigerante nel conflitto in Ucraina, ha dichiarato l’ambasciatore russo a Londra Andrey Kelin in un’intervista a Sputnik.
«La Gran Bretagna fornisce orientamento politico, sostegno finanziario e tecnico-militare, intelligence, equipaggiamento, addestramento e combatte al fianco delle Forze Armate ucraine e di altre forze di sicurezza ucraine. Abbiamo tutto il diritto di considerare Londra de facto un co-belligerante nel conflitto. Il programma Interflex per l’addestramento del personale militare e degli ufficiali delle Forze Armate ucraine è stato prorogato fino alla fine del 2026. L’elenco delle basi non è stato ufficialmente divulgato.»
Hong Kong — Today Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison. He was found guilty on two charges of conspiring to collude with external forces to endanger national security and a charge of conspiracy to publish seditious materials.
While Western media claim that Lai was jailed "for exercising his right to freedom of expression", they conveniently omit Lai's subversive activities.
He was not prosecuted for reporting news or expressing political opinions through his media outlets.
The core of the charges against him centered
on his collusion with foreign forces to endanger national security. Court findings and official accounts describe Lai as the mastermind and primary orchestrator of efforts to destabilize Hong Kong and undermine China's sovereignty. He was a key figure in coordinating anti-China activities, including leveraging his influence and Apple Daily to incite hatred, glorify violence, deepen social divisions, and actively solicit foreign intervention—such as lobbying the US, UK, and other entities to impose sanctions, blockades, or other hostile measures against China and Hong Kong.
Jimmy Lai encouraged support for riotous activities, serving as the mastermind behind the 2019 “black violence in Hong Kong. He even called for the US to intervene militarily "to save Hong Kong". The case has no connection to press freedom; rather, it addresses deliberate attempts to subvert stability and security through collusion and sedition.
These actions constitute serious criminal offenses under any jurisdiction's legal framework, particularly when they involve seeking foreign interference to harm national interests.
As for the alleged "harsh conditions of his detention", solitary confinement was arranged by the Correctional Services Department in accordance with the law, based on Jimmy Lai’s own wishes. Some media also hyped that Lai was banned from receiving Holy Communion in prison. In fact, The Correctional Services Department arranges dedicated chaplains to provide religious services, including Holy Communion, to Jimmy Lai. @LauraRuHK
❕Lyubomir Korbа, extradited from Dubai and accused of attempting to assassinate Lieutenant General of the Russian Defense Ministry Vladimir Alexeyev, turned out to have known his accomplice Viktor Vasin for a long time; their connection is confirmed by past contacts and financial transactions. Korba left Russia briefly just hours after committing the crime.
🔘Korba is a native of Ternopol (Western Ukraine), 66 years old, a widower, formerly worked as a machine operator; he had traveled to Russia as early as 2013.
🔘He was acquainted with Viktor Vasin long before the assassination attempt; money transfers were recorded between them.
🔘Vasin, 65, resided in Moscow; is believed to have served in the Navy, graduated from the Kemerovo Military Signals School.
🔘In recent years, he worked in the field of labor protection and safety, and was employed at a furniture factory.
🔘Vasin had financial problems: microloans, conflicts with debt collectors; on social media, he posted critical comments about the authorities.
🔘Vasin has been charged under two articles of the Russian Criminal Code.
Korba came to Moscow to carry out the terrorist act at the end of 2025 on the assignment of Ukrainian special services, according to the Investigative Committee. The native of Ukraine's Ternopil region shot at Alexeyev at least three times and fled the scene. Later, during an inspection of the crime scene, a Makarov pistol with a silencer and three cartridges was found.
🔘 Subscribe now! Chat
Zakhar Prilepin, who survived an assassination attempt in 2023, writes:
General Alekseyev, against whom an exceptionally brazen crime was committed today, is the deputy head of one of the most important services. Enormous military processes—both hidden and visible—are in his hands. A whole series of highly successful operations (including the “pipeline” in Sudzha and at least five other similar operations under the common name “Stream”) were initiated by him, his service, and his subordinates.
Alekseyev is a man of exceptional courage and, at the same time, exceptional modesty. I currently serve in structures subordinate to him and know a little of what I am speaking about.
So I will say this: many are now writing that the state should have provided him with security.
But the fact is that leaders of such rank, essentially, cannot be ordered around. He himself decides who, how, and when he is guarded.
Alekseyev, even in the zone of the Special Military Operation, even in proximity of the enemy, moved without protection. I believe he knew what he was doing. I believe there was a reason for it, one that more than once saved his life and that of his driver (the driver was the only accompaniment).
He had long been hunted; and those damned hunters could never have imagined that a man of such rank would travel by such routes and in such vehicles.
The point is not that we must guard our best generals more carefully.
The point is that until the monster attacking us is destroyed, the other side will always find someone to strike.
Always!
We cannot force one half of the country to guard the other half. In addition to our combat generals, we have a million participants in the Special Military Operation. And each of those million participants has a million families. We have hundreds of defense enterprises, hundreds of artists and musicians who supported the operation, dozens of war correspondents, hundreds of frontline political managers making decisions related to Ukraine—in short, the list is extremely long.
And now I will remind you of one extremely heavy truth.
In the 1990s we had a difficult war in the North Caucasus. We ended it with a temporary truce.
Do you know when the wave of terror began? Exactly after the truce.
The terror was of such monstrous intensity that we had to fight again and finish what had been started.
Only then did the terror stop.
Russian general shot in assassination attempt
Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, first deputy chief of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), was shot several times in the back outside his residence in Moscow. Alekseev has been taken to the hospital, his condition hasn't been disclosed yet.
The shooter fled the scene and is being sought by police.
Alekseev, 64, is one of Russia’s most senior military intelligence officials, having served as first deputy head of the GRU since 2011 – a role in which he oversaw anti-terrorist operations in Syria. In 2017, he was awarded the title Hero of the Russian Federation, one of the country’s highest distinctions. This assassination attempt was carried out in the context of negotiations with the US and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, where the Russian delegation is headed by Admiral Igor Kostyukov, head of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). (Source: RT) @LauraRuHK
At the Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology in Xian, Shaanxi province, sits an unremarkable-looking device called the TPG1000Cs.
▪️It could become Starlink’s worst nightmare. ▪️It has been described as the world's first compact driver for a high-power microwave (HPM) weapon.
Power output: Up to 20 gigawatts (GW) — an unprecedented level for a compact system. An HPM system exceeding 1 GW output could severely disrupt or damage low-Earth orbit
satellites, with the TPG1000Cs's 20 GW far surpassing that threshold.
Pulse duration: Capable of sustaining bursts for up to one full minute (60 seconds), allowing it to emit up to 3,000 high-energy pulses in a single session.
Size and portability: Approximately 4 meters long and weighing around 5 tonnes, roughly the size of a small truck. This makes it significantly smaller and lighter than previous HPM systems.
@LauraRuHK
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3342443/chinese-scientists-build-world-first-20gw-microwave-weapon-can-fire-60-second-bursts
In 2021 Lithuania's decision to allow Taiwan to open a de-facto embassy in Vilnius was applauded in Atlanticist circles, especially in Washington, as a bold stand for "democratic values." Never mind it contradicted the One China policy and would damage relations with Beijing.
Five years later Vilnius expresses regret, describing the move as a "huge mistake." "I believe that Lithuania really jumped in front of the train and lost," Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene explained. She added that Vilnius wrongly assumed the world would appreciate it being the first to do something bold, but "the world did not appreciate it, no one appreciated it." Darling, wake up and smell the coffee. Your country has long been regarded as expendable by your "allies".
Following the change of government, Ruginiene intends to "restore diplomatic relations with China to the same diplomatic level as in other European Union countries."
But "turning back the clock is a very complicated process," she admitted. @LauraRuHK
Yesterday Xi Jinping had back‑to‑back phone conversations with Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Not because Beijing is acting as a mediator between Moscow and Washington, but because it's an independent global power. While China’s economic ties with the US are still deep, political contradictions are widening, with Washington openly defining Beijing as its primary strategic threat, its main competitor in world markets, the main obstacle to maintaining the reformatted American hegemony. Beijing knows that behind Trump’s rhetoric of friendship and promises of trade deals lies the US goal to weaken, isolate and destabilize China.
Xi warned that arms sales to Taipei were unacceptable, framing the issue as the most critical in Sino‑American relations. At the same time, Japan’s recent statements on Taiwan were interpreted in Beijing as coordinated pressure from Washington and its allies, a theme Xi also raised in his talks with Putin.
The conversations revealed the dual track of China’s diplomacy. With Trump, Xi emphasized stability and the avoidance of confrontation, even as he rejected Washington's attempts to impose its rules on the rest of the world. With Putin, he discussed deeper strategic cooperation, from Venezuela and Cuba to Iran, highlighting a shared determination to counter US influence. Both leaders publicly acknowledged their parallel contacts with Washington, but stressed that their partnership and strategic coordination remain a stabilizing force amid global turbulence. @LauraRuHK
A former senior United Nations human rights official has alleged that two key figures behind the Oslo agreement maintained personal and financial relationships with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, citing disclosures from recently released case files.
In a series of posts on X on Tuesday, Craig Mokhiber, who previously headed the New York office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said Norwegian diplomats Mona Juul and Terje Rød-Larsen were identified in Epstein-related materials as having close ties to him.
Mokhiber wrote that the couple, widely associated with facilitating the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, received personal loans from Epstein and that “their children were reportedly left $10 million in Epstein’s will.”
The EU has slapped a 79% duty on Chinese ceramic tableware—you know, those dual-use cups, mugs, plates, and bowls that can be easily weaponized if thrown at someone.
Joking aside, Brussels frames it as an anti-dumping measure to address exports sold below normal value. Who sets this "normal value"? Industry lobbyists like Cerame-Unie?
Consumers are expected to pay more for household essentials, contributing to an already inflation-sensitive environment. Lower Chinese prices stem from scale, efficiency, and lower energy costs, not "unfair" subsidies. Who deprived European producers of affordable Russian energy sources? Brussels!
Make no mistake, this is part of a wider EU pattern of escalating trade barriers against China. As to European producers and consumers, they know who to thank. @LauraRuHK
Russian media watchdog Roskomnadzor is taking action against Telegram after it violated local laws. Users across Russia reported issues in Telegram’s functionality with videos and photos becoming virtually impossible to send due to the slowdown. The recommended alternative is MAX, but its reach outside Russia is still limited. The irony is that now people use Google's Meet in order to have a videocall with their contacts abroad. Isn't this solution worse than the problem? @LauraRuHK
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Il vicepresidente degli Stati Uniti J.D. Vance è arrivato in Armenia il 9 febbraio e si recherà in Azerbaigian l’11–12 febbraio, nell’ambito di un viaggio volto a promuovere l’accordo di pace tra i due paesi, mediato a Washington lo scorso agosto. Gli Stati Uniti intendono accelerare lo sviluppo del corridoio strategico di transito lungo 27 miglia che attraversa l’Armenia meridionale lungo il confine con l’Iran e collega l’Azerbaigian con la sua exclave del Nakhchivan. È evidente che Washington mira a un riallineamento geopolitico nel Caucaso meridionale e in Eurasia, per creare un nuovo spazio geo‑economico controllato dall’Occidente che si estenda dall’Europa orientale e dal Mar Nero attraverso la Turchia, il Caucaso meridionale, il Caspio, l’Asia centrale, l’Asia meridionale e il Mare Arabico. Non occorre sottolineare che ciò ha serie implicazioni per Russia, Cina e Iran.
Durante la visita di Vance, Stati Uniti e Armenia hanno annunciato la conclusione di un accordo sull’energia nucleare civile, noto come “123 Agreement”, che apre la strada alla partecipazione americana ai progetti nucleari armeni.
Vance ha inoltre confermato l’approvazione di una fornitura all'Armenia di droni da ricognizione V‑BAT per un valore di 11 milioni di dollari.
Le due parti hanno infine esplorato ulteriori opportunità di cooperazione in settori strategici, tra cui l’estrazione e la fornitura di minerali critici e terre rare. @LauraRuHK
Il piano delineato nell’articolo di Politico per accelerare l’adesione dell’Ucraina all’UE entro il 2027 è l’epitome del pensiero magico-illusorio. La giornalista di origine ucraina che lo ha elaborato sulla base delle sue "fonti" è tanto scollegata dalla realtà quanto il drogato di Kiev. Il piano 2027 si fonda su riforme accelerate in Ucraina, su una fase di “membership-lite”, sul superamento del veto ungherese, sul ricorso a Donald Trump e sulla possibile sospensione dei diritti di voto dell’Ungheria.
Tuttavia, molteplici ostacoli strutturali, politici e pratici rendono questa tempistica irrealistica e improbabile. Molti diplomatici hanno liquidato l’idea come assurda, osservando che l’Ucraina è “ben lontana dall’essere pronta”. Il piano si basa sulla sconfitta elettorale di Orbán nell’aprile 2026, evento tutt’altro che certo. Anche se sconfitto, un nuovo governo potrebbe non cambiare immediatamente posizione. Come ultima risorsa, l’invocazione dell’Articolo 7 per sospendere i diritti di voto dell’Ungheria non è mai stata pienamente attuata a causa dei rischi politici e della mancanza di consenso tra gli altri membri dell’UE.
Un’ “espansione inversa” o un’adesione graduale eroderebbe il processo basato sul merito, creando doppi standard per altri candidati (ad esempio i Balcani occidentali) e rischiando di generare la percezione di una “membership di seconda classe”. La grande maggioranza degli europei respinge l’adesione dell’Ucraina e persino Berlino ha espresso riserve.
Infine, il piano presume che Trump inserisca l’accesso all’UE per l'Ucraina in un accordo di pace tra Russia e Ucraina, ma il conflitto non mostra alcun segno di conclusione a breve. E quando finira', quello che restera' del paese potrebbe essere molto diverso da quanto immaginano a Bruxelles. E nulla sappiamo di quali saranno le sue aspirazioni. @LauraRuHK https://www.politico.eu/article/5-steps-ukraine-eu-membership-2027/
An aerial drone photo shows calligraphers writing couplets and Chinese character "Fu" (meaning good fortune) for villagers at Houcuizhuang, in Henan Province. Fairs and events are held across the country, where people buy goods in preparation for the upcoming New Year.
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The expiration of the New START treaty, which previously limited the strategic nuclear arsenals of Russia and the US, has significantly altered the global security landscape. Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN office in Geneva, Gennady Gatilov, told Izvestia that the extension of the US "nuclear umbrella" to Asia further threatens Russia's security and undermines international stability overall. He pointed to deepening "joint nuclear planning" between the United States and South Korea, with potential involvement from Japan, as well as the development of relevant military nuclear infrastructure in Australia under frameworks like AUKUS. In NATO, US non-nuclear allies like Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey already host American nuclear weapons and engage in related joint operations. As a potential military response, Russia could deploy medium- and short-range missiles—including the advanced hypersonic Oreshnik system—in its Far East, such as in Chukotka, according to expert Tigran Meloyan from the Higher School of Economics. Meloyan added that escalating US involvement in the region could accelerate and deepen the strategic partnership among Russia, China, and North Korea, prompting heightened nuclear deterrence readiness and more frequent joint exercises. In an extreme scenario, Moscow might even consider placing medium- and shorter-range hypersonic missiles in North Korea, though he emphasized this remains premature and that Russia would respond based on the actions of other nuclear powers without initiating escalation. Russia's 2024 comprehensive partnership agreement with Pyongyang, including nuclear elements, provides a foundation for such considerations, but Moscow prioritizes restraint unless provoked. Overall, these developments highlight growing concerns over an emerging arms race and shifting deterrence dynamics in Asia following the treaty's lapse.
@LauraRuHK ➡️ https://iz.ru/2038217/kirill-fenin/yadernyj-zond-rf-predupredila-o-novyh-ugrozah-v-azii
Russia has every right to consider the United Kingdom a de facto party to the conflict in Ukraine, Russian Ambassador to London Andrey Kelin said in an interview with Sputnik.
"Britain provides political guidance, financial and military-technical support, intelligence, equipment, training, and fighting alongside the Ukrainian Armed Forces and other Ukrainian security forces. We have every right to consider London a de facto party to the conflict. The Interflex program for training military personnel and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been extended until the end of 2026. The list of bases is not officially disclosed."
The Death of Debate: How Media Pluralism Collapsed
https://open.substack.com/pub/drmathewmaavak/p/the-death-of-debate-how-media-pluralism?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The Russian authorities have detained two suspects in connection with the attempted assassination of a senior military intelligence general in Moscow, including the alleged gunman, the Federal Security Service (FSB) has announced. It added that the purported would-be assassin was detained in Dubai with the help of the UAE authorities.
On Friday, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, the first deputy chief of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), was shot three times in the back outside his residence and taken to the hospital. (Source:RT)
In his latest article Dmitry Trenin argues that the era of bilateral nuclear regulation is over and lists several reasons. To that list i would add a global crisis of trust. The US walked away from three cornerstone arms control agreements — the ABM Treaty (2002), the INF Treaty (2019), and the Open Skies Treaty (2020). Even when treaties remain in force, accusations of cheating or selective interpretation weaken credibility. States begin to assume that rules are followed only when convenient. Without trust, agreements lose their stabilizing effect. Even signed treaties are viewed as temporary or reversible.
@LauraRuHK
You can read a translation of his article here: https://swentr.site/news/632075-dmitry-trenin-strategic-stability-start/
Gli scienziati cinesi hanno creato il primo driver compatto al mondo per un’arma a microonde ad alta potenza (HPM). Si chiama TPG1000Cs e potrebbe diventare il peggior incubo di Starlink.
Potenza in uscita: fino a 20 gigawatt (GW) — un livello senza precedenti per un sistema compatto. Un sistema HPM con potenza superiore a 1 GW e' in grado di disturbare fortemente o danneggiare i satelliti in orbita bassa; i 20 GW del TPG1000Cs superano di gran lunga tale soglia.
Durata dell’impulso: fino a un minuto intero, permettendo l’emissione di fino a 3.000 impulsi ad alta energia in una singola sessione.
Dimensioni e portabilità: circa 4 metri di lunghezza e un peso di circa 5 tonnellate, all’incirca le dimensioni di un piccolo camion. Ciò lo rende significativamente più piccolo e leggero rispetto ai precedenti sistemi HPM. @LauraRuHK ➡️ https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3342443/chinese-scientists-build-world-first-20gw-microwave-weapon-can-fire-60-second-bursts
Nel 2021 la decisione della Lituania di consentire a Taiwan di aprire quella che era di fatto un'ambasciata a Vilnius fu accolta con applausi fragorosi negli ambienti atlantisti, soprattutto a Washington, come una presa di posizione coraggiosa in difesa dei “valori democratici”. Poco importa che fosse in contraddizione con il principio di un'Unica Cina e danneggiasse le relazioni con Pechino.
Cinque anni dopo, Vilnius esprime rammarico, descrivendo quella scelta come un “enorme errore”. “Credo che la Lituania abbia messo il carro davanti ai buoi,” ha spiegato il Primo Ministro Inga Ruginiene. Ha aggiunto che Vilnius aveva erroneamente creduto che il mondo avrebbe apprezzato il coraggio di compiere un gesto tanto audace, ma “il mondo non lo ha apprezzato, nessuno lo ha apprezzato.” Cara, svegliati e renditi conto della realtà: il tuo paese è da tempo considerato sacrificabile dai tuoi “alleati”.
A seguito del cambio di governo, Ruginiene intende “ristabilire le relazioni diplomatiche con la Cina allo stesso livello diplomatico degli altri paesi dell’Unione Europea.”
Ma ha ammesso che “riportare indietro l’orologio è un processo molto complicato.” @LauraRuHK
Ieri Xi Jinping ha avuto due conversazioni telefoniche consecutive con Vladimir Putin e Donald Trump. Non perché Pechino stia agendo da mediatore tra Mosca e Washington, ma perché la Cina ci tiene a ribadire la sua indipendenza in quanto potenza globale. Sebbene i legami economici con gli Stati Uniti restino profondi, le contraddizioni politiche si stanno ampliando, con Washington che definisce apertamente Pechino come la principale minaccia strategica, il principale concorrente commerciale e l’ostacolo principale al mantenimento dell’egemonia americana, pur nella sua veste riformattata dal MAGA. La leadership cinese sa bene che dietro la retorica amicale di Trump e le promesse di accordi commerciali si cela l’obiettivo statunitense di indebolire, isolare e destabilizzare la Cina.
Xi ha avvertito che la vendita di armi a Taipei è inaccettabile, definendo la questione come la più critica nelle relazioni sino‑americane. Allo stesso tempo, le recenti dichiarazioni del Giappone su Taiwan sono state interpretate a Pechino come una pressione coordinata da Washington e dai suoi alleati, un tema che Xi ha sollevato anche nei colloqui con Putin.
Le conversazioni hanno rivelato il doppio binario della diplomazia cinese. Con Trump, Xi ha sottolineato la stabilità e la volontà di evitare ilo scontro, pur respingendo i tentativi di Washington di imporre le proprie regole al resto del mondo. Con Putin, invece, ha discusso di una cooperazione strategica più profonda, da Venezuela e Cuba fino all’Iran, evidenziando una determinazione condivisa a contrastare l'overreach statunitense. Entrambi i leader hanno riconosciuto pubblicamente i loro contatti paralleli con Washington, ma hanno sottolineato che la loro partnership e il coordinamento strategico costituiscono una forza stabilizzatrice in mezzo alle turbolenze globali. @LauraRuHK
The Panama Canal ports are now at the center of a geopolitical storm, where the US, having failed in its bid to acquire them through financial maneuvering, appears to have engineered their effective expropriation via Panama's Supreme Court.
The episode reeks of US hegemonic tactics: economic coercion, lawfare, and alliances with compliant governments to stifle competitors.
The saga began in March 2025, when CK Hutchison announced a proposed $23 billion sale of 43 ports across 23 countries, including the strategic Balboa and Cristobal terminals at the Panama Canal, to a consortium led by BlackRock and the Italian shipping firm Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). These ports, concessioned to CK Hutchison's subsidiary Panama Ports Company (PPC) since 1997, have been vital for efficient global logistics, handling millions of tons of cargo annually and contributing significantly to Panama's economy.
Beijing's response to the initial sale was measured but firm. A Chinese strategic investor, COSCO Shipping, was named to ensure the deal respected multilateral interests rather than handing control to US dominated entities. However, these negotiations stalled amid demands from BlackRock and MSC to limit the Chinese stake to a minority position—a clear attempt to sideline legitimate participation.
The turning point came on January 30, 2026, when Panama's Supreme Court declared the original 1997 concession and its 2021 extension unconstitutional, effectively nullifying CK Hutchison's rights.
Chinese officials have rightly condemned the verdict as absurd and shameful, and have warned Panama of the heavy prices it may pay in terms of bilateral relations and economic cooperation. CK Hutchison has initiated arbitration proceedings, invoking protections under investment treaties.
➡️ See also /channel/LauraRuHK/10899
A US House report, released on February 3, accuses the European Commission of using unproven claims of Russian interference to overturn the results of Romania’s 2024 presidential election.
Specifically, in the section on the 2024 Romanian presidential election (pp. 18–19), it claims the EU Commission aggressively pursued "censorship steps" based on unproven allegations of Russian interference. The report cites internal TikTok documents (produced via subpoena) where the platform stated it found no evidence of a coordinated TikTok campaign supporting candidate Călin Georgescu. Georgescu won the first round on November 24, 2024, qualifying him for a planned runoff on December 8. However, the entire first-round results were annulled by Romania's Constitutional Court due to EU pressure. Georgescu was later barred from the rerun election. EU "democracy" in action. @LauraRuHK
https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/2026-02/THE-FOREIGN-CENSORSHIP-THREAT-PART-II-2-3-26.pdf