USDINR:
USDINR is being offered ahead of the Budget. It is going to be a volatile day in USDINR. In the offshore, USDINR is back inside the range of 81.40 and 81.80 on spot, trading near 81.74/75 levels. If prices sustain below 81.80, it would be a major false breakout but such moves have occurred in the past. When USDINR used to be ranged between 82.60 and 83.00 on spot, it broke and closed below that range, only to pull back and close near the upper end of the range, but finally, the downtrend re-asserted. Such price actions would knock any trend trader, but that’s why we have stop losses and proper position sizing. Such erratic moves also underscore the importance of hedged strategies like iron fly over unhedged strategies like a short straddle or strangle.
USDINR has an upward bias as long as prices are not closing below 81.60 levels. Trade within smaller position sizes and large stop losses. The focus will be on the policies on direct taxes and fiscal math. Volatility will be across the board, from equity to bonds to currencies.
GBPINR:
Other than the FED outcome we have a lot of data releases from the US economy, namely the Non-Farm employment change, JOLTS Job Openings, and ISM Manufacturing PMI, these releases are expected to spike up the volatility in the markets. From the UK economy we have the BoE policy, so traders might thread carefully.
The GBPINR has been facing rejection every time it attempts to move higher. On the downside, the pair has been able to find support near the 100.00 mark, so this level can act as support in the sessions to come. On the upside, we might see resistance come in near the 101.50 level.
EURINR:
The EURUSD pair has been witnessing choppy moves. On Tuesday the pair bounced off the 1.08 mark and moved higher towards the end of the session, this morning the pair seems to be under a bit of pressure, which shows classic PRE-FED anxiety. Though the data from the US economy has been supporting a smaller-sized hike, the FED chair has been defending the Central Bank’s hawkish stance. For the day there are a few releases from the US economy that might change the market mood and the risk sentiment, but traders might be careful as we have the ECB policy tomorrow.
The EURINR has been sideways and has been trading between 89.20 on the upside and 88.50 on the downside. In the sessions to come, as long as these bounds are not breached we might see consolidation.
JPYINR:
The FED continuing with the hawkish stance and the BoJ adamant about keeping the policy ultra-loose has been capping the gains in the Yen. The USDJPY pair has been range bound and moving around the 130.00 mark in the past couple of sessions.
The JPYINR pair has been facing rejection near the 64.00 zone, so in the sessions to come we might see this level act as a resistance. On the downside, we might see the support come in near the 62.60 level.
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USDINR:
The rupee has been resilient in spite of the $ 2.5 billion FPI outflow in January, the highest since June of last year. We suspect corporate inflows and some bit of intervention from RBI may have played a part. RBI has seen a boost to its reserves on account of the positive impact of the revaluation of its non-dollar holdings. A weaker US Dollar makes the non-dollar holding grow in value as the reserves are translated into the US Dollar. Higher M2M gains may have allowed RBI the space to intervene in the market and keep currency stable.
USDINR is going into the Union Budget and Fed meeting with low realized volatility. A range of 81.40 and 81.80 is in play in the spot market. We expect the range to resolve into a trend before the weekend. But for the day, one can continue to scalp inside the range. Buy near 81.50 on the spot reference, with SL below 81.40. Sell near 81.80/85 with SL above 82.00. But once the range breaks, we would like to trade in the direction of the break. We would abstain from selling straddles and strangles due to event risks. If at all, focus on hedged strategies like iron fly or butterfly.
(Expected range for the day: 81.50-81.90. Intra-day Bias: Rangebound)
GBPINR:
It is a busy week for the GBP, there are two factors that will be affecting the GBP pairs, one is the BoE policy and the other is the change in the risk sentiment because of the FED policy. The IMF has come up with an outlook and as per an FT report, it suggests that the UK economy is the only economy that could go into a recession. As per the report, the Eurozone economies have shown significant resilience. This could put a lot of pressure on the GBP pairs today.
The GBPINR since the past couple of sessions has been facing rejection near the 102.00 mark, and the sell-off that follows the rejection has been significant. As of now, the 100.00 mark has been acting as a support, so in the sessions to come we might see the pair find support near the 100.00 zone.
(Expected range for the day: 99.70-100.30. Intra-day Bias: Rangebound)
EURINR:
On Monday we had the German GDP, which came in negative for the 4th quarter of 2022. The estimates suggested that the GDP could be flat, and the actual figures came in lower than expected. This put immense pressure on the EURO, and the EURUSD pair moved lower towards the 1.085 mark.
The EURINR pair has been finding hurdles near the 89.20-89.50 zone, so in the sessions to come, the price action around that level will be crucial to watch. On the downside, we might see the supports come in near 88.70.
(Expected range for the day: 88.45-89.05. Intra-day Bias: Upward)
JPYINR:
The BoJ at this point is very stubborn and seems to be standing by its ultraloose policy. This has put immense pressure on the Yen and has kept the USDJPY pair rangebound near the 130.00 mark. Today, there is general positivity around the dollar because of the pre-FED anxiety. This could put a lot of pressure on the YEN and could push the USDJPY pair higher.
The JPYINR pair on Monday attempted to move higher but failed to do so and ended the session near the session low of 63.02. Technically, we might see the pair find resistance near the 63.50 mark, and the support is expected to come in near the 62.80 zone.
(Expected range for the day: 62.75-63.25. Intra-day Bias: Rangebound)
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What is #Bitcoin Dominance?
#Bitcoin dominance is the share of #bitcoin in the crypto market’s overall value. It is calculated by dividing BTC’s market cap by the total cryptocurrency market cap.
Traders have used #Bitcoin dominance to help understand whether #altcoins are on an up or downtrend against bitcoin. For example, one popular theory is that the crypto market is heading into a bull market if #altcoins are trending up. In 2017, for instance, a significant decline in #Bitcoin dominance signaled altcoin prices skyrocketing (rather than #BTC price declining), coinciding with the entire market entering a #bull phase.
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