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#USDCAD reversed from resistance level 1.3530
Likely to fall to support level 1.3400
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 1.3530 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of January), intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction (2) from the start of November.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3530 stopped the previous impulse waves 3 and (3).
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.3530, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.3400.
🚦Worse-than-expected retail sales data pushed the euro higher
The euro (EUR) gained 0.59% on Thursday after the U.S. Retail Sales report came out weaker than expected and pulled the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields lower.
#Possible effects for traders
EURUSD rose above the important 1.07500 level yesterday after official data showed that U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in January. However, investors' interest rate expectations didn't change much as other macroeconomic data—specifically, Jobless Claims figures—were better than expected. The market still doesn't expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver a rate cut this spring. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the U.S. central bank will ease its monetary policy in May currently stands at just 38%.
#Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to make dovish remarks. Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the head of the Bank of France and the ECB member, said on Friday that the regulator 'shouldn't hold off the first rate cut for too long.' Indeed, the eurozone's economy continues to struggle, so interest rate cuts may be warranted soon. On Tuesday, an official report revealed that Germany's ZEW Current Economic Conditions Index declined more than expected in February, while the eurozone's Gross Domestic Product figures for Q1 grew by a mere 0.1% in Q4.
#EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, 2 releases will likely trigger additional volatility in all USD pairs and possibly provoke sharp moves in EURUSD: the U.S. Producer Price Index at 1:30 p.m. UTC and Consumer Sentiment reports at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected figures should exert bearish pressure on the pair, while lower-than-expected results may encourage EURUSD bulls. Currently, the short-term technical bias remains bullish as the pair is moving above the pivotal 1.07500 level.
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