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[Why support and resistance are not lines on your chart]
Let me share with you a story…
In my early days of trading, I used to think my support and resistance lines are the best and the market will respect it to the pip.
But it didn’t take me long to realize my support and resistance levels keep getting breached, and I thought it was a breakout.
So I traded the breakout.
The next thing I know, the price quickly made a swift reversal in the opposite direction and I got stopped out.
So, I looked back at my charts and asked myself:
“What the hell went wrong?”
Well, it seems the levels I drew did hold up, albeit not to the exact pip.
And that’s when I had an “Aha!” moment…
I realized support and resistance are not lines, instead, they are areas on my chart. Here’s why…
There are usually two groups of traders in the market:
- FOMO traders
- Cheapo traders
I’ll explain…
Traders with the fear of missing out (FOMO) would enter their trades the moment price comes close to support.
And if there’s enough buying pressure, the market would reverse at that location.
On the other hand, some traders want to get the best possible price (cheapo traders), so they place orders at the lows of support. And if enough traders do it, the market will reverse near the lows of support.
But here’s the thing:
You’ve no idea which group of traders will be in control. Whether it’s FOMO or cheapo traders.
Thus, support and resistance are areas on your chart, not lines.
They say you can never go broke taking profits.
But it only takes one bad loss to wipe out a bunch of small profits.
[This is the most important technical level one the chart]
Here are a few reasons why…
Reason #1: Losing traders hoping to get out at breakeven
Multi-year highs represent extreme optimism in the markets because most traders (and investors) are in profits.
But as you know, the price cannot go up forever. Eventually, it has to retrace or reverse altogether.
When that happens, many traders will exit their long trades.
However, not everyone will do the same. Some will continue holding, hoping the price could breakout higher to give them even more profits.
But when the market collapses even lower, they’ll regret not selling earlier as their open profits have been eroded and they are now sitting on their losses. They hope the market could re-test the highs so they can get out of their trades at breakeven.
Reason #2: Bearish traders looking to short the markets
For bearish traders, multi-year highs present an opportunity to short the market at a “high price” because they can reference the highs to set their stop loss.
So as the price approaches multi-year highs, the short interest from bearish traders will increase.
Reason #3: Momentum traders looking to buy breakouts
Momentum traders buy breakouts as the price moves above a certain level. It could be breakouts of a range, swing high, resistance, etc.
But what’s interesting is if the price breaks out of multi-year highs, it’ll attract attention from traders across different timeframes.
That’s because whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, long-term trader, etc. the multi-year highs will be something visible on your timeframe (and charts).
Now, whether you’re bullish or bearish, multi-year high is a significant level for traders.
If you’re bearish, then you can reference it to set your stop loss above the highs.
If you’re bullish, then you can look to buy the breakout and have your stops below the previous multi-year highs (anticipating that it could become previous resistance turned support).
(And vice versa for multi-year low.)
There are 5 possible outcomes for your trade:
1. Breakeven
2. Small win
3. Small loss
4. Big win
5. Big loss
Eliminate #5 and you’ve just taken a big step forward.
[The truth about support and resistance nobody tells you]
If you read most trading textbooks, they’ll tell you that the more times support and resistance are tested, the stronger they become.
But that’s not true, because the more times support and resistance are tested within a short period, the weaker they become.
Here’s why…
Support exists because there’s potential buying pressure around a certain price level.
(This buying pressure could be institutional orders, retail orders, smart money, etc.)
So what happens when the price re-tests support multiple times?
Well, these orders start to fill up.
Eventually, when all these orders are filled up, there’s no one left to buy and that’s when support breaks.
This means the more times support and resistance is tested (especially within a short period), the weaker it becomes.
Why a short period?
Because it’s unlikely new orders will be “replenished” so quickly.
And that’s why the more times support and resistance are tested within a short period, the weaker they become.
One trade isn't going to change your life. But 1000 trades with a positive expectancy will.
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Do you want to learn how to systematically beat the markets?
Then get your copy of The Essential Guide to Systems Trading (For Non-Programmers).
You’ll discover systematic trading strategies that work so you can beat the markets consistently even if don’t know a single line of code.
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[Always be a student of the markets]
Here’s my learning curve as a trader:
I started with indicators, then price action trading.
And for a few years, I thought that’s all I needed because after all, the price is king and that’s all I needed to be a profitable trader.
But that hurts my growth because I tuned out everything else (and limited myself only to price action trading).
When I realized my folly, I quickly went back to being a student of the markets.
So I asked myself:
“What are other winning traders doing to profit from the markets?”
That’s when I got exposed to trend following, systems trading, mean reversion trading, etc.
By expanding my knowledge and incorporating different strategies, I was able to find more trading opportunities (most traders are blinded to).
So here's the deal...
You may (or may not) be a profitable trader but, it doesn’t mean your learning curve is over because you’re always a student of the market.
I encourage you to keep learning and exploring new strategies.
Don't limit yourself to just one approach, because there's always more to discover.
Ultimately, the key is to remain open-minded and willing to try new things. It can be scary to step outside your comfort zone, but it's often the only way to achieve true growth and success.
The markets can reward you for no rhyme or reason.
But if you think you have cracked the code, the market can take everything back and more.
If you don’t want that to happen, always manage your risk—and never assume you know it all.
The Piercing Pattern Trading Strategy Guide
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Do you want to read the price action of the markets like a professional trader?
Then download a FREE copy of The Ultimate Guide to Price Action Trading.
You’ll learn how to better time your entries, “predict” marketing turning points, identify explosive breakout trades about to happen, and much more…
Click the link below and grab your copy, it’s free!
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[The hidden cost of copy trading that nobody tells you]
Copy trading is a business.
So, if you’re not being charged any upfront fee, then you’re paying more for the spread and overnight fees.
I’ll explain…
For most Forex brokers, the spread on EUR/USD is 1 pip. But on a copy trading platform, you might pay 2 to 3 pips more.
But don’t take my words for it because you can compare the spreads of a normal Forex broker with a copy trading platform and you’ll see the difference.
So, what’s the implication?
Two things.
#1: If you’re a trader being copied, then bear in mind your trading strategy won’t work as well because you’re paying more in spread (compared to a typical Forex broker).
#2: If you’re copying another trader, then it’s best to follow traders who trade infrequently so the spread doesn’t eat up a huge chunk of your profits.
Now, the spread isn’t your only cost because you still have to consider overnight fees (if you’re holding positions for longer than a day).
This fee is calculated by taking Libor + X%.
(Libor stands for inter-bank offered rate. It’s an interest rate that banks charge to other banks for borrowing the money.)
So, what is X?
Well, this is the mark up that’s determined by the copy trading platform and you’ll need to check with them for the exact amount.
The good news is, you don’t have to worry about calculating all these because the platform will likely do it for you—so do check it out before placing a trade.
Now, there are probably other fees to consider but the spread and overnight fees make up the chunk of it.
You can give excuses or become a profitable trader. But you can't do both.
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[Pullback stock trading tips]
When it comes to stock trading, it’s possible to have hundreds of stocks forming a pullback trading setup at the same time.
So the question is:
How do you know which stocks to buy and which to avoid?
Well, the secret is to focus on stocks which have increased the most in price over the last 12 months.
Why?
Because these are stocks likely to outperform the market (and it’s been proven in theory as well according to the paper Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers by Jegadeesh and Titman).
So, how do you apply this to your trading?
1. Rank stocks according to their rate of change (ROC) over the last 50-weeks—from the highest to the lowest
2. Look for a pullback trading setup on stocks with the highest ROC value. If there isn’t, then move to the next stock (with a lower ROC value)
3. The top 5 stocks with a valid pullback trading setup are the ones to focus on
Pro Tip:
You can use a platform like Thinkorswim to help you rank the stocks, and it’s free.
There are no perfect entries:
Breakouts may fail
Pullbacks may never come
Confirmation may be too late
Pullbacks may become a reversal
But the good news is this, you don't need perfect entries to make it as a trader
[How to improve your trading results, fast]
Here’s the deal:
You can figure things out on your own which will cost you time and money or, simply follow what works.
You’re probably wondering:
“How do I know what works?”
Well, the key thing is to look for trading books which contain specific trading rules with backtested results.
Here are some books worth checking out:
– Following the Trend: Andreas Clenow
– Trading systems: Urban & Emilio
– Automated stock trading: Laurens Bensdorp
– Short-term trading strategies that work: Larry & Cesar
– Building Reliable Trading Systems: Keith Fitschen
This way, you don’t have to re-invent the wheel and can simply tweak their trading strategy to your needs.
Anyone can make money from trading.
But few are consistently profitable in the long run.
Why?
Because only a few have... Edge + Risk Management + Discipline
Disadvantages Of A Trailing Stop Loss (An Explanatory Guide)
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The Inverted Hammer (A Definitive Guide)
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Do you want to read the price action of the markets like a professional trader?
Then download a FREE copy of The Ultimate Guide to Price Action Trading.
You’ll learn how to better time your entries, “predict” marketing turning points, identify explosive breakout trades about to happen, and much more…
Click the link below and grab your copy, it’s free!
https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/ultimate-guide-price-action-trading/