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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: Oil prices are nearing $70/barrel as President Trump threatens to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
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JUST IN: US and China have agreed to prolong their trade truce, according to comments by Li.
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JUST IN: India anticipates US tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% and is hopeful for a deal by September or October.
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Fed week is here ❕
Kalshi now sees a 95% chance of no change in interest rates this week.
However, all eyes will be on the Fed’s outlook, with 2 rate cuts expected between July and January.
Guidance will be all that matters.
💰 What is Valuation?
Valuation = estimating what an asset is really worth.
The image covers the core methods — DCF, multiples, net assets, reverse DCF.
But here’s what’s equally important 👇
🟡 Valuation ≠ price — Market price is what people pay. Value is what something should be worth. The two often diverge.
🟡 Intangibles matter — Brand, network effects, IP, and data often hold more value than factories or cash flow.
🟡 Context is everything — A great valuation in 2020 looks insane in 2023. Interest rates, cycles, liquidity all shift “fair value.”
🟡 In crypto, valuation is even harder —most tokens have no cash flows. Look at usage, token sink mechanics, emission schedules.
🟡 Margin of safety — Smart investors never buy at fair value. They want a discount — to account for being wrong.
Valuation isn’t exact.
It’s a tool, not a truth.
Use it wisely — and never in isolation.
⚠️ M2 money supply is now expanding at 4.5%
After reaching its deepest contraction in 65 years
This is very constructive for the US stock market
90% of trading is doing nothing.
The other 10% is undoing what you did when you got impatient.
Patience isn’t optional.
It’s the edge.
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📈 How to Become a Profitable Trader
Trading isn’t about guessing the market or winning every trade.
It’s about building a repeatable system where the math works in your favor over time.
Here’s what actually makes a trader profitable:
🟡Build a system with edge
Your strategy should produce only four types of outcomes: big wins, small wins, breakevens, and small losses. The key is cutting out big losses entirely — they kill your equity curve.
🟡 Use stop losses and trailing stops
Stops keep your downside controlled. Trailing stops help let winners run. Together, they shape your win/loss profile.
🟡 Backtest and refine your entries/exits
Your edge needs proof. Backtesting helps you understand how the system performs over time — not just on one trade.
🟡 Control position size
Never risk more than 1–2% of your capital on a single trade. Sizing based on volatility helps you stay in the game when the market gets rough.
🟡Only take trades with good risk/reward
Before entering, ask: “Is the reward at least 2x the risk?” High R:R setups reduce the need for a high win rate.
🟡Track your expectancy
Expectancy is how much, on average, you make per dollar risked. If that number’s positive, your system is working.
🟡Know your profit factor
It’s your gross profit divided by gross loss (including fees/slippage). A profit factor above 1 means you're net profitable.
This isn’t about luck or intuition.
It’s about math, discipline, and sticking to a system that works.
JUST IN: TRUMP ON FED CHAIR POWELL: “HE’S LEAVING VERY SOON. I’LL MISS HIM”
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This Week's Most Notable Earnings 👆
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JUST IN: China and the U.S. have commenced trade discussions in Stockholm, according to Xinhua.
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JUST IN: The U.S.–EU trade deal averts a trade war but may slow Europe's growth.
• Germany and Ireland, major exporters of cars and pharmaceuticals, will suffer the most.
• France and Spain are expected to see minimal effects.
• U.S. tariffs could decrease EU GDP by 0.2% over three years, according to Capital Economics.
This situation could further weaken growth in the EU, especially impacting the already struggling German economy, which might affect market sentiment negatively.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Thailand and Cambodia have reached an agreement for an "immediate and unconditional" ceasefire.
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Important chart 👆
Gold stocks vs. S&P 500 sectors
We are likely only seeing the beginning of this outperformance.
💧 Understanding Liquidity, FVGs, and Smart Money Zones
To understand market moves, you need to see where money flows — where it hides, and where it gets hunted.
📍 What is liquidity
Liquidity is what fuels market movement.
Price doesn’t move randomly — it seeks out clusters of stop orders where large players can fill positions.
📈Buy-side liquidity sits above resistance or recent highs — stop losses from shorts.
📉Sell-side liquidity lies below support or recent lows — stop losses from longs.
These are the areas smart money targets to enter or exit positions with minimal slippage.
📍 Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
Before grabbing liquidity, price often rebalances.
That’s where Fair Value Gaps come in.
🟡 A 3-candle pattern showing price imbalance.
🟡 It occurs when there’s no overlap between the first and third candles.
🟡 This creates a “gap” where one side (buy or sell) is inefficient.
📍 Internal vs External liquidity
Price usually moves in two phases:
🟡 Internal Liquidity (IRL) — rebalancing inside the range (e.g. FVGs)
🟡 External Liquidity (ERL) — taking out old highs or lows
This structure helps explain why price doesn’t go in a straight line — it clears inefficiencies first, then targets stops.
📍 Premium and Discount zones
Use the Fibonacci tool to map fair value:
🟡 Above equilibrium (0.5 level) is premium — an area to look for shorts.
🟡 Below equilibrium is discount — a zone for potential longs.
Smart entries often happen around the 0.618–0.705 zone — called Optimal Trade Entry (OTE).
Liquidity is the invisible hand behind price action.
Learn to follow the footprints — not the noise.
JUST IN: Lutnick expects a new pharmaceutical plan announcement in two weeks with higher tariffs if pharma is not produced in the US.
• Lutnick confirms Trump will reveal pharma policy soon.
• A significant tariff is anticipated for non-US pharma production.
• EU trade talks are expected to continue.
• On India trade, Trump will decide on pursuing a deal.
• Resolution on some trade issues is anticipated by Friday.
The potential for higher tariffs could lead to increased costs for pharmaceutical companies that manufacture abroad, potentially impacting their stock prices and market performance.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: The European Union has agreed to purchase €40 billion worth of AI chips under a new trade agreement with the U.S..
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It was a hell of a ride for Palantir $PLTR.
Will cherish the memories 🫡
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JUST IN: Trade discussions between the US and China in Stockholm have wrapped up for the day, according to a source familiar with the proceedings.
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⏫ If the S&P can stay above the 20-DMA through next Friday, it will be the longest stretch since 1965.
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BREAKING: President Trump says “we are going to be setting a tariff for the rest of the world and that is what they have to pay.”
He is so back
JUST IN: Donald Trump has set a new deadline for Vladimir Putin of either 10 or 12 days.
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JUST IN: Bessent arrives at the building for China discussions.
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❕ This is exactly how the 2008 Financial Crisis unfolded
It didn’t happen overnight.
It was a slow-motion chain reaction.
🔊Liquidity vanished in silence — BNP froze redemptions
🔊Bear Stearns went under, and the Fed started cutting
🔊A clean bull trap gave false hope
🔊Then came the wave: IndyMac, AIG, Merrill, Lehman
🔊The Fed held at 2% — until it was too late
🔊Market capitulated. Only then did recovery begin
Zoom out next time you think "this looks like 2008."
It always starts slow — then all at once.
Geopolitics, American edition.
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👆 Here’s the economic calendar for this upcoming week
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JUST IN: Trump announced a significant deal with the EU involving trade and energy purchases.
• EU will buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy.
• Trade will open with 0% tariffs.
• Hundreds of billions of USD in military gear will be purchased by the EU.
• $600 billion in U.S. investments by the EU.
• $150 billion in U.S. energy purchases.
• Von der Leyen claims the deal ensures stability with a 15% tariff agreement.
The removal of tariffs and significant energy purchases could positively impact market sentiment, potentially boosting U.S. economic growth and European access to energy resources.Читать полностью…