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📈We track everything that moves the markets: fast news, clear context, real narratives. 📩 Reach out: @strategy
JUST IN: The Trump administration has reportedly allowed Chevron to restart oil production in Venezuela, according to sources.
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Bitcoin still tracking the 4-year cycle
New ATH and price action continues to mirror 2013 and 2017 cycles.
Same structure. Same rhythm.
If history holds — the top isn’t in yet.
JUST IN: If a deal for the U.S. to control TikTok is not approved by China, TikTok will be shut down in the US.
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📉 Risk of Ruin — What Every Trader Should Know
The Risk of Ruin measures how likely you are to eventually lose your entire account. It depends on:
🔊 Win rate (% of profitable trades)
🔊 Risk per trade (% of capital at stake)
🔊 Length of losing streaks (drawdown probability)
Even with a strong system, a long losing streak can wipe you out if your risk per trade is too high.
✅ General rule: Risk 1–2% of your capital per trade.
✅ Aim for a win rate of 50–60% to reduce drawdown risks.
❓Ask yourself: Can I survive 10 losses in a row?
🔗 Try this calculator 👈
Because in trading, survival is the first edge.
⚡️Worth highlighting
Despite copper reaching new highs, it remains at one of its most undervalued levels relative to gold in history.
Notice that we are also approaching a potential major breakout in the copper-to-gold ratio.
Copper has officially entered a price discovery phase and this move is still in its early stages.
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JUST IN: Heavy shelling has been reported along the Thailand-Cambodia border.
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JUST IN: The EU and US may strike a trade deal featuring a 15% US baseline tariff on EU goods, with possible exemptions for some items.
• A significant number of EU members favor employing the anti-coercion instrument if no US deal is reached and tariffs hit 30%.
This development may impact market sentiment as traders reassess transatlantic trade dynamics, potentially influencing valuation of affected sectors.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: The EU and US are nearing a trade agreement to implement 15% tariffs on European imports, preventing Donald Trump’s proposed hike to 30% on August 1st, according to FT.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated he will only reduce tariffs if a country consents to open its market; otherwise, he plans to impose much higher tariffs.
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JUST IN: The EU is set to impose 30% tariffs on $117 billion of U.S. goods if no agreement is made by August 1.
• Targets include Boeing aircraft, cars, and bourbon.
• The tariffs may start next month if the U.S. enacts similar tariffs on EU exports.
Such tariffs could increase costs for consumers and businesses, potentially leading to shifts in stock values and market volatility.Читать полностью…
📈 The stock market is trading like how crypto use to
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It's been 18 consecutive sessions without a 1% move in either direction for the S&P 500, the longest such streak of the year.
In those 18 days, the S&P 500 has hit 10 record highs, while the Nasdaq has reached 12 record highs.
Party like it's 1999.
👆 Here are the current richest people in the world
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JUST IN: Microsoft accuses Chinese hackers of exploiting SharePoint.
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JUST IN: The House panel is starting an investigation into the Federal Reserve's renovations, according to Punchbowl.
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JUST IN: Sales of new homes in the US increased by 0.6% in June, reaching 627,000 units.
• Consensus expected 645,000.
• May's sales were adjusted to 623,000.
• The supply of new homes in June stands at 9.8 months.
The lower-than-expected sales might influence market sentiment, potentially affecting homebuilders' stock prices and investor confidence in the housing market's recovery.Читать полностью…
JUST IN: Lutnick states that the EU is eager to make a deal while criticizing U.S. tech companies. He also highlights that South Korea is keen on reaching an agreement and stresses that TikTok should be removed from Chinese control.
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JUST IN: The ECB has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00%; no specific future rate path has been committed.
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📈 Daily Bias Cheat Sheet
Quick framework to define your high timeframe bias:
🔊 Narrative: Where is price coming from and going to?
🔊 Order flow: Bullish or bearish structure confirmed?
🔊 SMT divergence: Any clean mismatch with correlated pairs?
🔊 Liquidity: Are we targeting internal or external levels?
🔊 PDH/PDL: Any sweep or key rejection?
🔊 Weekly levels: Has the high or low of the week been set?
Keep it simple. Trade with intent.
You should learn to cut your losses systematically.
No reason to feel bad about it.
This is what the job entails.
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JUST IN: The U.S. government plans to publish a crypto report on July 30th.
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The current state of the stock market 👆
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🖌 A clean set of TradingView color combos to level up your charts
Perfect for staying focused without the visual noise.
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📌CISD — clean model for spotting delivery shifts
Price doesn’t reverse randomly. CISD (Change in State of Delivery) helps identify when delivery behavior flips — often before a major move.
CISD entries are based on:
🔊 A close above the last down candle (bullish CISD)
🔊 A close below the last up candle (bearish CISD)
🔊 Happens at key HTF levels after a liquidity grab
Types of CISD you’ll see on charts:
🟢 S-CISD — single candle breaks the prior range
🟢 C-CISD — two candles (opposite colors), second confirms shift
🟢 High probability CISD — occurs with IFVG, SMT divergence, and after a sweep
Entry playbook: HTF key level → liquidity run → CISD → entry
CISD isn’t just a pattern — it’s a narrative shift in how price is being delivered. When paired with the right context, it gives clear and repeatable entries.
⚠️ Credit card debt has been rising aggressively
It has now almost reached the $1.1 trillion mark
People are spending much more than they can afford…
🧠 Ten Powerful Psychological Traits of the Rich Trader
Many new traders are taken out of the trading game through bad mental practices.
Here are some things that top money managers and rich traders have shared through interviews and books that may help traders who are making mental mistakes in their trading.
🔊They have the ability to admit they were wrong and get out of a trade. They know the place where price proves them wrong.
🔊They have the ability to not only close a losing trade but reverse and go in the other direction with the right signal.
🔊The rich trader is not trying to prove anything about themselves they are focused on making money.
🔊They do not fall in love with an idea, currency, commodity, or stock they will make trades based on price action.
🔊Rich traders know that the market action is their ultimate boss regardless of their opinions.
🔊No matter how sure they are about a trade they still ALWAYS manage the risk.
🔊Rich traders get more aggressive when winning and trade smaller or take a break during a losing streak.
🔊A great trader is one that can admit to anyone that they were wrong.
🔊Rich traders do not believe their own hype, they know they can not really predict the future they can only react to current reality and the probabilities.
🔊Rich traders love what they do, win or lose.
When you are trading with a mindset like that, it is hard to be beaten over the long term. Time is your friend.
💰 Want to build wealth? Give up these 4 habits
Wealth isn’t about how much you make — it’s about what you stop doing.
Most people sabotage themselves before they even start.
Here are 4 patterns that quietly kill your chances at wealth:
🟡Telling yourself you can’t — Limiting beliefs block action. Wealth starts with mindset.
🟡Trying to impress others — Lifestyle inflation keeps you broke. Stealth wealth wins.
🟡Wasting time — Time is the real asset. Compounding only works if you start early.
🟡Thinking in scarcity — Fear-based thinking keeps you stuck. Abundance creates options.
🧠The wealthy don’t just earn more — they think differently.
Start there.
📉 Corporate Insiders Are Quietly Selling — A Record Low in Bullish Sentiment
Insiders are flashing warning signs across the board.
Only 11.1% of companies with insider activity are seeing more buying than selling by executives and directors — the lowest level ever recorded.
That figure hasn’t dropped below 15% at any point in the last decade.
🔊 Nearly 90% of insider-tracked firms saw net selling in recent weeks
🔊 10 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors showed neutral or negative sentiment
🔊 Utilities were the only sector with net insider buying
🔊 Selling pressure spans all market caps, from small to large
A rare signal — insiders are stepping back while markets float near highs.
The divergence is worth watching.
👆 Get ready — this week is packed with earnings.
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