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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg
⚡️Goldman Sachs Estimates US Economic Growth Higher If Democrats Win Elections
🌧In the event of a Republican victory or a divided Congress under Donald Trump, economic growth will suffer next year, mainly due to increased import tariffs and tougher immigration policies. Job growth under Democrats will also be higher than under Republicans.
📍The race between Harris and Trump is close, with the Democratic candidate holding a slight lead in national polls and some key states. The prospect of Trump winning, especially in tandem with harsh China critic J.D. Vance, rattled markets in July.
✨Under Harris, job growth would be 10,000 per month higher than under divided-government Trump and 30,000 higher than with a complete Republican victory, Goldman estimates. A Trump victory would likely lead to higher tariffs on auto imports from China, Mexico and the EU, raising core inflation.
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⚡️Wall Street's Oil Market Forecasts for 2025 Are Getting Gloomier
📈Last week, experts at Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley already lowered their forecasts for Brent oil prices for next year to below $80 per barrel. Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned that futures for “black gold” could even fall to $60.
💸The main reason lies in China, the world's largest oil importer, where key growth engines such as manufacturing activity and home sales have begun to falter.
📊Global oil markets were oversupplied by more than 1 million barrels a day in the first quarter as rising demand was more than met by an influx of new production from the United States, Guyana and Brazil, according to the International Energy Agency.
➕However, this figure could increase if the OPEC+ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, continues to implement plans to restore production by about 2 million barrels per day between October and the end of 2025.
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⚡️Hedge Funds Bet Against Banks, Insurance And Real Estate
⏺Hedge funds continue to bet against bank and financial stocks amid reports of job cuts and lower trading volumes. Financial stocks were the most traded sector in the group's prime brokerage desk serving global hedge funds, according to a note from Goldman Sachs.
⏺Banks, insurance companies, publicly traded real estate trusts and capital markets companies were sold on a net basis for the fourth week in a row. The STOXX 600 bank index in Europe is up 1.7% since Aug. 26, and the Dow Jones bank index closed Friday up more than 2% in the week ahead of the U.S. holiday.
⏺Financial stocks have been short in six of the last seven weeks. Sales were global, with the largest volumes in North America, emerging markets in Asia and Europe. While overall global deal value rose about 20%, the number of mergers and acquisitions fell 25% through June 25, according to LSEG.
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⚠️ Buffett Is Selling Bank of America Shares Again
⏺Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett continues to sell shares of Bank of America Corp., and if it continues to reduce investments, it will soon eliminate the need to quickly disclose these transactions.
⏺The new round of sales, disclosed on Friday evening, reduced the conglomerate's stake in the bank to 11.4%. As long as Berkshire owns more than 10%, US rules require it to disclose transactions within days. But if a company owns a smaller stake, it may wait a few weeks before releasing updates—usually providing results after each quarter.
⏺That would help cool the situation that has been weighing on BofA's share price since mid-July, when Buffett - a longtime supporter of the bank's CEO Brian Moynihan - began selling off shares without explanation. Since then, Berkshire has received a total of $6.2 billion.
⏺Buffett began ramping up his investment in Bank of America with a $5 billion deal in 2011 for preferred stock and warrants. His Berkshire Hathaway eventually became — and remains — the bank's largest shareholder, with a stake of about $36 billion based on Friday's closing price.
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🚫 Goldman Sachs Will Lay Off Hundreds Of Employees
ℹ️The new round of layoffs will lead to an overall reduction of about 3% to 4% of the bank's workforce in 2024, with most of those cuts made earlier this year, one of the people said. This is in line with the bank's typical approach as it seeks to keep costs under control and make room to attract new talent. The annual measure was briefly suspended at the height of the COVID pandemic and last year was near the lower end of its typical 1% to 5% range.
📊Goldman employed 44,300 people at midyear. A company spokesman said the bank's annual staff review is normal and standard, and that the company plans to have more employees by the end of 2024 than the year before.
📈The bank's shares rose to an all-time high this week, rising more than 32% to top $510 by Friday's close, making it the best performer among leading U.S. banks.
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🟢 Market Pulse / 30.08.2024
↗️ US stocks ended a wobbly week and a volatile month on a high note as the latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge bolstered rate-cut hopes and kept the central bank on track for a policy pivot in September.
📊Inflation edged higher in July, according to a measure favored by the Federal Reserve as the central bank prepares to enact its first interest rate reduction in more than four years. The Commerce Department reported Friday that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% on the month and was up 2.5% from the same period a year ago, exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. The 12-month figure was slightly softer than the 2.7% estimate.
✂️ Swap contracts fully price in a quarter-point move and about 20% odds of the half-point cut forecast by at least two large US banks. They continue to almost fully price in a half-point rate cut at some point this year, anticipating cumulative easing of almost 100 basis points over the Fed’s three remaining policy meetings.
💻 Intel shares gained 9% Friday following a report that the company is considering splitting off its foundry and other options as the rival to Nvidia tries to stem losses. The reported discussions follow a harsh earnings report from earlier this month that spooked investors. Overall, the stock is down over 50% so far this year.
🔨 Shares of the technology company Dell rose 4% in afternoon trading on Friday after posting better-than-expected second quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. Dell also benefited from the development around AI, with increased demand for its servers.
S&P Movers:
📈Intel +10%
📈GE Vernova +5%
📈Western Digita +4%
📉Ulta Beauty -4%
📉APA Corp -3%
📉Super Micro Comp -3%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +1.0%
📈NASDAQ +1.1%
📈STOXX 600 +0.1%
📈DAX +0.0%
📈SHANGHAI +0.7%
📈NIKKEI +0.7%
🥇 GOLD -1.0%
💛 BTC -0.8%
😱 VIX -4.1%
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🟢 Market Pulse / 29.08.2024
↗️ The Dow closed at another record on Thursday — its third this week — while the other major averages finished the day lower as investors assessed Nvidia's earnings alongside data that showed the US economy grew more than expected.
🔽While Nvidia`s quarterly profit and revenue guidance topped estimates, the size of the beats fell short of high-running hopes. That started to stir questions as to whether the AI boom has peaked. Wall Street remained bullish on the stock, but shares still ended the day down around 6%.
📊The US economy grew at a stronger pace than expected in the last quarter, according to a reading of gross domestic product released on Thursday. Second-quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 3%, up from a prior estimate of 2.8%. Weekly US jobless claims came in at 231,000, a decline from the prior week, and lower than 232,000 expected by economists.
📈Affirm shares rose more than 35% on Thursday afternoon after the buy now, pay later company said Wednesday it will likely reach profitability faster than previously expected. Affirm now expects to be profitable by the fourth quarter of the next fiscal year. The announcement came alongside an earnings report that soared past Wall Street's expectations.
🔼Best Buy shares soared 14% on Thursday after the retailer posted better-than expected results following a series of disappointing quarters. CEO Corie Barry said in the release that the numbers are a result of Best Buy's focus on "sharpening" the customer experiences and market positioning, while "expanding our non-GAAP operating income rate in the current environment."
🔽Dollar General shares tanked 32% on Thursday after the low-cost retailer cut its full-year outlook and partially blamed softer sales in the second quarter on "financially constrained" customers. The company has been undergoing a "Back to Basics" improvement plan at the helm of CEO Todd Vasos, who returned to Dollar General last year. The latest quarterly results highlighted pressure on the lower-income consumer.
S&P Movers:
📈Best Buy +14%
📈Cooper Companies +12%
📈West Pharma +6%
📉Dollar General -32%
📉Dollar Tree -10%
📉NetApp -10%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +0.0%
📉NASDAQ -0.2%
📈STOXX 600 +0.8%
📈DAX +0.7%
📉SHANGHAI -0.5%
📈NIKKEI +0.0%
🥇 GOLD +0.7%
💛 BTC +0.1%
😱 VIX -8.5%
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⚡️Copper Prices Reach 6-Week High
🔼Copper prices hit a nearly six-week high on rising investor demand and market optimism about a possible cut in US interest rates.
📈Copper prices have risen steadily in recent weeks, recovering from a fall to a four-month low in early August. Copper's recent rally has been supported by renewed demand from hedge funds.
ℹ️Expectations for a Fed rate cut have increased following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks last week about the need for policy adjustments, although he did not specify the exact timing or extent of the cut. Copper prices are expected to benefit from rate cuts as looser monetary policy eases financial pressure on producers and construction companies.
❗️Demand for copper is considered an indicator of economic health, and the metal is critical to various sectors including electric vehicle manufacturing and power grids.
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🟢 Market Pulse / 27.08.2024
↗️The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day just above the flatline to claim another back-to-back record high. The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite each closed up around 0.2%. Stocks are struggling to find a footing as investors debate whether chipmaker Nvidia's high-stakes results on Wednesday can once again live up to elevated expectations. Semiconductor stocks lost ground on Tuesday alongside a 1% drop for the AI darling, a sign of how Nvidia's report could ripple through techs as it tests the AI trade that has driven gains.
⌨️Super Micro Computer stock fell nearly 2% Tuesday following a report from short seller Hindenburg Research claiming, among other things, "accounting manipulation" at the AI high flyer. Hindenburg Research said its three-month investigation "found glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues." The firm disclosed Tuesday that it had taken a short position in Super Micro. Super Micro shares soared from $290 in early January to north of $1200 by March. The stock is off about 50% from its March peak but is still up 90% year to date.
🛒Consumer confidence rose more than expected in August despite a continued weakening in consumers' assessment of the labor market. The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 103.3, above the 101.9 seen in July and higher than the 100.7 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. In August's consumer confidence report, 32.8% of people said jobs were "plentiful," down from 33.4% in July. Meanwhile, 16.4% said jobs were "hard to get," up slightly from 16.3%.
💊Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. shares tumbled below $10 for the first time in 27 years on Tuesday, the latest milestone in what has been an abysmal year for the pharmacy chain. This latest drop puts Walgreens shares on track for their worst day since June 27, when the stock fell more than 20% following disappointing earnings and guidance. On that day, the Wall Street Journal also reported that the struggling pharmacy-chain operator planned to close poorly performing stores and cut its stake in primary-care provider VillageMD. Eli Lilly & Co. said Tuesday that it planned to offer its popular weight-loss drug Zepbound at a steep discount. The announcement appeared to weigh on shares of Walgreens and rival CVS Health Corp.
S&P Movers:
📈Resmed Inc +7%
📈Insulet Corp +7%
📈Royal Caribbean Cruise +4%
📉Walgreens Boots Alliance -9%
📉Paramount Global -7%
📉Martin Marietta Materials -5%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +0.2%
📈NASDAQ +0.2%
📈STOXX 600 +0.2%
📈DAX +0.4%
📉SHANGHAI -0.2%
📉NIKKEI +0.5%
🥇 GOLD +0.2%
💛 BTC -1.7%
😱 VIX -4.5%
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🔴 Market Pulse / 26.08.2024
↘️ The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record close on Monday while the other two major averages slid as investors weighed the imminent arrival of interest rate cuts and braced for a busy week dominated by Nvidia's earnings report. If the chipmaker's results on Wednesday fail to meet sky-high expectations, that could further dent the AI trade, which has powered stock gains, and, in turn, put the market's rebound from August lows to the test.
💸China’s central bank left a key interest rate unchanged, keeping a lid on a bond frenzy as it stays patient in supporting the economy. The People’s Bank of China kept the rate on its one-year policy loans, or the medium-term lending facility, at 2.3%, after a slashing the rate by 20 basis points in July. The decision underscores Beijing’s cautious approach in supporting the economy, even as China reported a rare contraction in bank loans amid weak demand. The PBOC has been walking a fine line of stimulating growth and cooling a government-bond buying spree to limit financial risks in recent months.
🛢 Oil prices settled 3% higher on Monday as production cuts in Libya added to supply concerns stemming from reports of escalating conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, Israel implemented an airstrike against Tehran-backed Hezbollah’s rocket launching stations in Lebanon, adding to fears of a broader conflict involving Iran breaking out in the region. Libya's eastern-based government announced the closure of all oil fields on Monday, halting production and exports. Libya's oil production was about 1.18 million barrels per day in July, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, citing secondary sources
🔽U.S.-listed shares of PDD Holdings plummeted nearly 30% on Monday, putting the e-commerce stock on pace for its worst day on record. The declines came after the Temu parent company posted disappointing second-quarter results. PDD reported revenue of 97.06 billion yuan, falling short of a FactSet estimate of 100.17 billion yuan. The company said it anticipates pressures from heightened competition. Shares have plummeted more than 33% this year.
S&P Movers:
📈Dayforce Inc +4%
📈Jack Henry & Associates +3%
📈EOG Resources +3%
📉Super Micro Computer -8%
📉Broadcom -4%
📉Micron -4%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -0.3%
📉NASDAQ -0.9%
📉STOXX 600 -0.1%
📉DAX -0.1%
📉SHANGHAI -0.0%
📉NIKKEI -0.7%
🥇 GOLD +0.3%
💛 BTC -1.3%
😱 VIX +1.8%
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🇺🇸US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 98% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 79% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ 60% beat revenue expectations, still below the 5-year average of 68% and below the 10-year average of 64%
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Monday:
Pinduoduo, Heico, Trip
Tuesday:
Joyy, Nordstrom, Ambarella, Scotiabank
Wednesday:
Nvidia, Chewy, Li Auto, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Foot Locker, HP Inc, NetApp
Thursday:
Best Buy, Dell, Dollar General, Lululemon, Gap Inc, Autodesk
Friday:
Frontline
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 25.08.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔼S&P 500 +1.5%
🔼DOW JONES +1.3%
🔼NASDAQ +1.4%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔼STOXX 600 +1.3%
🔼DAX +1.7%
🔼FTSE 100 +0.2%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔼HANG SENG +1.0%
🔽SHANGHAI -0.9%
🔼NIKKEI 225 +0.8%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔼BRENT -2.2%
🔼GOLD +0.4%
🔼BITCOIN +6.6%
🔼VIX +7.2%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺US indexes climbed more than 1% for the week, failing to match the previous week’s big gains but nevertheless extending their comeback from a rough start to August. Stocks were choppy earlier in the week but ended on a positive note Friday following a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
⏺Investors appeared encouraged by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaling the Fed was on the path toward cutting interest rates. This declaration reflected the central bank's confidence in its fight against inflation and the market's widespread belief that the economy no longer needs a restrictive policy. Fed Chairman said that the time has come to adjust monetary policy, but the pace of interest rate reduction will depend on incoming data. This statement means that the Fed is “cementing” the September rate cut, but leaves open the question of the size of this step. Also this comment from Powell indicates how high the current Fed interest rate is. It is at its highest level since 2001.
⏺Real estate stocks led the S&P 500's advance this week, rising 3.5% to serve as the best-performing sector in the index as investors cheered signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank will begin cutting interest rates next month. This follows a challenging year for commercial real estate, marked by a sharp decline in property values and record-high vacancy rates. However, the outlook for the group appears to have turned a corner for now.
⏺Stocks advanced after a summary of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting last month reinforced hope for lower rates in the near future. Those moves came as Fed officials said a decrease to the borrowing cost during the September policy meeting was increasingly likely, according to minutes from the July gathering released Wednesday afternoon. Traders are pricing in around a 64% chance of a reduction of 25 basis points and 37% odds of 50 basis points, per CME's FedWatch tool.
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📱Apple Plans To Introduce New iPhones, AirPods And Watches on September 10
📱Following the unveiling, the phones are expected to go on sale on September 20, which is in line with Apple's typical approach in recent years. The launch is crucial for Apple, whose sales of smartphones and wearables have been weak in recent quarters.
🍏The iPhone 16 will have larger screens on Pro models and new camera features. The company also produces a suite of artificial intelligence tools called Apple Intelligence. However, in general, the phones will not differ much from last year's models.
🍏Meanwhile, Apple's wearables are set to see bigger changes. Apple Watch Series 10 models will be thinner but include larger screens. In addition, Apple is updating its AirPods line with new entry-level and mid-range versions. The company will offer noise cancellation on its mid-range AirPods for the first time, and the entry-level model will receive an update for the first time since 2019.
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⚡️Powell Believes It's Time For a Rate Cut - Jackson Hole Speech
🗣️ Fed Chairman said that the time has come to adjust monetary policy, but the pace of interest rate reduction will depend on incoming data.
ℹ️This statement means that the Fed is “cementing” the September rate cut, but leaves open the question of the size of this step. Also this comment from Powell indicates how high the current Fed interest rate is. It is at its highest level since 2001.
©This gives US authorities a lot of opportunities, if necessary, to resist an economic downturn. In addition, Powell made clear that the labor market has become at least as important to the Fed as it was a year ago, when the focus was on inflation.
📊In response to Powell's speech, US stocks jumped, Treasury yields fell, and the dollar fell
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🔴 Market Pulse / 03.09.2024
↘️ Investors began September trading with a crash as stocks tumbled on Tuesday to start a historically tough month for markets, with AI darling Nvidia and chip names leading tech stocks down. The turn into the red comes amid a crucial week of data on the economy and labor market highlighted by an influential monthly jobs report.
📊The market initially took a leg down on Tuesday after two readings of manufacturing production showed signs of weakness. S&P Global’s showed a decline from July to August, while the Institute for Supply Management’s came in under the level anticipated by economists polled by Dow Jones. This data reignited concerns around slowing growth within the U.S. economy, which helped drive a closely watched sell-off early last month.
📈U.S. and global benchmark crude-oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday to turn lower year to date, as downbeat economic data from China and a weak reading on the U.S. manufacturing sector fed worries about a slowdown in energy demand. November Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 4.9%, to settle at $73.75 - the lowest front-month finish since Dec. 12, 2023, with prices turning down by 4.3% this year. WTI crude for October delivery fell 4.4% to settle at $70.34 - the lowest front-month finish since Dec. 13, 2023. Year to date, prices have now lost 1.8%.
🔽Nvidia fell 9% on Tuesday, continuing a slide that accelerated after the company's earnings report last week that failed to impress Wall Street. The stock is down more than 12% over the last five days, highlighting a challenging moment for AI and chip companies that have stalled as questions about returns on investments from their customers grow louder.
🔽Coinbase sank nearly 7% as fears of an economic slowdown outweighed the prospects of the Fed's expected rate cut later this month, pulling a host of crypto-related firms, along with much of the rest of the market, into the red. The price of bitcoin, the main cryptocurrency, sank further on Tuesday, around the $57,000 level, dragging the prospects of the digital currency ecosystem along with it.
🔽Boeing sank 6% Tuesday following a price target cut from Wells Fargo, which highlighted pressure on the company's cash flow as it works to develop new aircraft. The company also faces a major potential strike, as its workers in Washington state are set to go on strike if a deal isn't reached later this month.
S&P Movers:
📈Molson Coors Beverage +5%
📈Dexcom +4%
📈Cboe Global Markets +4%
📉Vistra -11%
📉Monolithic Power System -10%
📉Constellation Energy -10%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -2.1%
📉NASDAQ -3.3%
📉STOXX 600 -1.0%
📉DAX -1.0%
📉SHANGHAI -0.3%
📉NIKKEI -0.0%
🥇 GOLD -0.1%
💛 BTC -1.8%
😱 VIX +38.1%
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🌧 September Is Traditionally A Terrible Month For Traders
⚠️ 2024 could be even more challenging due to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Stocks, bonds and gold typically lose value in September as traders review their portfolios after the summer break. This month marks the largest percentage drops in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices since 1950. Bonds have fallen in eight of the last ten Septembers, and gold has fallen every time since 2017.
⚠️ Investors should be prepared for increased volatility as they face uncertainty, including a key US jobs report that will be important to the Fed's decision on the frequency and size of future rate cuts. Stocks trading near record levels and Treasuries on their longest monthly winning streak in three years could be vulnerable to shocks or surprises amid the tight US presidential race.
❗️With markets expecting four quarter-point rate cuts by the end of this year, there is increased risk of volatility if the Fed appears less willing to ease policy at its meeting ending Sept. 18.
‼️Another source of volatility will be the first televised debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump next week, an event seen as important for their re-election campaigns.
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🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 02.09
⏺US Holiday
⏺China, Eurozone, Russia Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday 03.09
⏺US Manufacturing PMI
⏺Earnings reports from Zscaler
Wednesday 04.09
⏺US Trade Balance
⏺US Factory Orders
⏺China Services PMI
⏺Earnings reports from Dollar Tree, Hewlett Packard
Thursday 05.09
⏺US Initial Jobless Claims
⏺US ISN Non-Manufacturing PMI
⏺Earnings reports from Nio, Broadcom, DocuSign
Friday 06.09
⏺Eurozone GDP
⏺US Nonfarm Payrolls
⏺US Unemployment Rate
⏺Earnings reports from Kroger
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🚘Tesla Is Preparing A Robotaxi Presentation At Warner Bros Studio
⏺Tesla Inc. intends to present its long-awaited robotaxi at an event at the Warner Bros. film studio. Discovery Inc. in the Los Angeles area. The presentation is scheduled for October 10 in Burbank, California. The site is home to 29 sound stages that have been used to film famous productions, from the Batman films to the TV show Friends.
⏺Tesla CEO Elon Musk is prioritizing autonomy and artificial intelligence, moving away from Tesla's core business of selling electric vehicles. The Austin-based company is also building its own ride-hailing app, powered by a fleet of both purpose-built robotaxis and other vehicles that don't require a human driver. The CEO may reveal more details about the technology at the Los Angeles event.
⏺Tesla has postponed the date of its robotaxi event, originally scheduled for August 8, due to requests for design changes from Musk. The company also took longer to create prototypes for demonstration.
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💻 Intel Is Considering Business Split
⚙️ Intel is working with investment banks to overcome the most difficult period in its 56 years. Various scenarios are being considered, including the separation of the design and manufacturing businesses, as well as the possible suspension of some projects.
⌛ Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, both longtime Intel partners, are advising the company on its options, including potential mergers and acquisitions. The discussions became especially urgent after a disappointing earnings report, after which the shares fell to 2013 levels.
🔜 Strategic options are expected to be presented at the board meeting in September. Among the measures being considered is a possible suspension of expansion plans, rather than radical steps such as selling the manufacturing unit. CEO Pat Gelsinger considered him key to restoring Intel's position among chip makers. Intel has already announced cutting 15,000 jobs and reducing capital spending. CEO noted that recent weeks have been difficult for the company. Adding to the shock was the departure of director Lip-Bu Tan, one of the few people with industry experience.
ℹ️ Intel, whose market value has fallen to $86 billion, is no longer among the top 10 largest chipmakers. It lags significantly behind Nvidia, which plans to double Intel's revenue in 2024.
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📉Nvidia Shares Fall After Quarterly Report Amid High Investor Expectations
📊Nvidia's quarterly report exceeded analysts' expectations, but the company's forecast and news of problems with the production of Blackwell's next-generation artificial intelligence chips fell short of investors' expectations. Nvidia forecast its fiscal 2025 third-quarter revenue to be about $32.5 billion.
💬Nvidia admitted that the new Blackwell chips were more difficult to manufacture than originally expected. The company said it had to redesign the photomask to increase the number of usable chips. Nvidia plans to ramp up Blackwell production in the fourth quarter and continue into the next fiscal year. The company expects it to generate "several billions of dollars" in revenue by the end of the year.
🔼Nvidia's revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 rose to $30 billion, up 122% from a year earlier. The data center division, which became the largest source of sales, increased revenue by 154% year-on-year, to $26.3 billion. Sales of gaming chips, which were previously Nvidia's core business, brought the company $2.9 billion.
‼️Analysts continue to raise estimates for Nvidia, but worry that growth is slowing. Most of it fell on a small group of clients. About 40% of Nvidia's revenue comes from big tech companies like Alphabet and Meta, which are pouring tens of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure. Although companies have increased capital spending this season, there are concerns that the amount of infrastructure being built will exceed demand, which could lead to a bubble.
📈Nvidia shares are up 153.7% since the start of 2024. They were the best performers in the S&P 500 this year and eclipsed the gains of all other semiconductor companies.
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🔴 Market Pulse / 28.08.2024
↘️ A decline in tech stocks led the market lower on Wednesday as investors awaited chipmaker Nvidia earnings report, seen as crucial to keeping confidence in the broader market aloft. Stocks pulled back from the near-record levels seen on Tuesday, as investors shifted Nvidia's second quarter results after the bell on Wednesday. Following the market close, Nvidia reported earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street's estimates but shares slipped after-hours roughly 4%.
🔽Shares of SuperMicro Computer fell nearly 25% after the company said it would delay the filing of its annual report for its fiscal year that ended June 30. The announcement comes a day after short seller Hindenburg Research claimed, among other things, "accounting manipulation" at the AI high flyer. Wednesday's more than 24% drop in Super Micro’s stock price made short sellers more than $1.07 billion in midday mark-to-market profits, according to S3 Partners data.
🔼Shares of e-commerce pet food and supplies retailer Chewy jumped 12% after the company reported second-quarter earnings results, with revenue, active customers, and EPS exceeding Wall Street's expectations. In addition, its EBITDA margin increased year on year, and free cash flow improved. Improved monetization also played a role in the results, as net sales per active customer clocked in at a record $565. Overall, this was an impressive quarter for the company.
S&P Movers:
📈Insulet Corp +6%
📈Bio-Rad Lab +3%
📈Tyson Foods +3%
📉Super Micro Comp -19%
📉Bath&Body Works -7%
📉JM Smucker -5%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -0.6%
📉NASDAQ -1.1%
📈STOXX 600 +0.3%
📈DAX +0.5%
📉SHANGHAI -0.4%
📈NIKKEI +0.2%
🥇 GOLD -0.5%
💛 BTC -2.7%
😱 VIX +10.9%
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⚡️Shares of Chinese PDD Holdings Inc. Plummeted 30% After Weak Quarterly Report
🔽PDD Holdings, owner of chinese marketplace Temu, suffered its deepest one-day drop since its US listing in 2018. In addition, the corporation's shares reached a nine-month low. The market capitalization of the Chinese company fell by $55 billion. Company's revenue for the latest quarter fell short of analysts' expectations. The figure amounted to 97.06 billion yuan, with average analyst expectations of 100 billion yuan.
❗️During a post-earnings briefing, CEO Chen Lei mentioned at least eight times that revenue and profits must “inevitably” decline as economic growth slows. He sees many new challenges ahead, from changing consumer demand, intensifying competition, and uncertainties in global environment.
⚠️PDD’s warning stunned investors because the company was long viewed as the main beneficiary of a Chinese “consumer downgrade” — its low-pricing strategy on Pinduoduo domestically and Temu abroad was intended to appeal to cost-conscious shoppers at a time of unprecedented economic volatility.
💸The disappointing results were the latest in a series of red flags about the Chinese economy. On Tuesday, China’s biggest bottled water producer Nongfu Spring Co. reported the slowest half-year profit growth since its listing in 2020, while popular fast food chain Din Tai Fung — long one of the most popular restaurant brands across the country — revealed this week it was shutting more than a dozen outlets.
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🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 26.08
⏺UK Bank Holiday
⏺US Durable Goods Orders
⏺Earnings reports Pinduoduo, Trip com
Tuesday 27.08
⏺Germany GDP
⏺US Consumer Confidence
⏺Earnings reports from Scotiabank, Nordstrom, Joyy
Wednesday 28.08
⏺Germany Consumer Climate
⏺Earnings reports from Nvidia, Salesforce, Crowdstrike, HP Inc, Kohl's Foot Locker
Thursday 29.08
⏺Eurozone Consumer Confidence
⏺Germany PPI
⏺US GDP
⏺US Trade Balance
⏺Earnings reports from Dell, Lululemon, Best Buy, Dollar General
Friday 30.08
⏺Eurozone CPI
⏺US PCE index
⏺Earnings reports from Miniso
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❌Chinese Markets Experience Record Stock Delisting For Third Year In A Row
❌Chinese stock markets have seen record delistings for the third year in a row. Forced delisting can be detrimental to investors. The record delisting comes as the number of IPOs surges over the past decade and tougher rules introduced to weed out weaker bidders.
🇨🇳A total of 40 companies have already been removed from the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges this year, and another nine have said they are also likely to be removed. This suggests that in 2023 the total number of players will exceed the previous record of 45.
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🟢 Market Pulse / 23.08.2024
↗️ The U.S. stock market finished sharply higher Friday, as investors appeared encouraged by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaling the Fed was on the path toward cutting interest rates. This declaration reflected the central bank's confidence in its fight against inflation and the market's widespread belief that the economy no longer needs a restrictive policy. Traders are pricing in around a 64% chance of a reduction of 25 basis points and 37% odds of 50 basis points, per CME's FedWatch tool.
🏙 Real estate stocks led the S&P 500's advance this week, rising 3.5% to serve as the best-performing sector in the index as investors cheered signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank will begin cutting interest rates next month. This follows a challenging year for commercial real estate, marked by a sharp decline in property values and record-high vacancy rates. However, the outlook for the group appears to have turned a corner for now.
📺 Shares of the TV streaming distributor Roku rose nearly 9% Friday as Guggenheim analysts upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $75. That represents a premium more than 20% up from Thursday's closing price. Analysts cited broadening video inventory for advertising sales and improved monetization for home screens heading into the third quarter.
🏠Sales of new homes increased 10.6% in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 739,000 units, up from June’s revised seasonally adjusted annual rate of 668,000, according to the Census Bureau on Friday. The uptick in sales activity likely reflects how lower rates have incentivized many builders to provide more attractive rates for house hunters who may finally see some relief from affordability challenges that have plagued the housing market for the better part of two years. In recent weeks, 30-year mortgage rates have dropped below 7% and are now at the lowest level since May 2023. Still, they remain double levels from three years ago.
S&P Movers:
📈Builders FirstSource +9%
📈Norwegian Cruise Line +8%
📈Carnival +8%
📉Intuit -7%
📉Brown&Brown -2%
📉Synopsys -2%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +1.2%
📈NASDAQ +1.5%
📈STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈DAX +0.8%
📈SHANGHAI +0.2%
📈NIKKEI +0.4%
🥇 GOLD +1.3%
💛 BTC +4.7%
😱 VIX -9.8%
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🔴 Market Pulse / 22.08.2024
↘️ US stocks rolled over Thursday with tech leading the losses as investors turn their focus to a key speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium kicked off Thursday with the market on high alert for any shift in tone from the policymakers when Powell speaks at the event on Friday.
🛠 Initial filings for unemployment benefits were roughly flat last week, reflecting a labor market that is cooling but not rapidly deteriorating as the employment outlook remains in focus ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Friday speech. New data from the Department of Labor released Thursday showed 232,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ending Aug. 17, up from 228,000 the week prior and in line with economists' expectations. Continuing jobless claims rose again to 1.86 million, the highest level since November 2021.
🚲Peloton shares popped more than 33%, putting the connected fitness company on pace for its best day on record. The gains came after the company posted its first sales increase in nine quarters as it implements its turnaround plan. Peloton topped revenue estimates and posted a smaller-than-expected loss of 8 cents per share. Earlier this year, the company announced a restructuring plan as it looks to bounce back from a post-pandemic slump. The company reached all-time highs in 2021 as lockdowns forced customers to work out from home.
📱 Zoom Video Communications posted better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings and issued guidance for fiscal 2025 that also came in higher than forecasts. Zoom Video said during the second quarter it “saw strength in large accounts, with customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12 months revenue increasing by 7.1% year over year.” Shares of the videoconferencing company rose 13%.
S&P Movers:
📈Franklin Resources +5%
📈Nordson Corp +3%
📈Centerpoint Energy +3%
📉Moderna -7%
📉Intel -6%
📉Tesla -6%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -0.9%
📉NASDAQ -1.7%
📈STOXX 600 +0.4%
📈DAX +0.2%
📉SHANGHAI -0.3%
📈NIKKEI +0.7%
🥇 GOLD -1.1%
💛 BTC -0.7%
😱 VIX +7.9%
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