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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg
🟢 Market Pulse / 08.08.2024
↗️ US stocks go up as labor-market data calm recession fears. The S&P 500 hit its best day since 2022 adding 2.3%. The blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq were also on track for their best day in over a year. The 10-year Treasury yield traded above 4% following the jobless claims data, a level seen before the disappointing July jobs report Friday sent markets reeling. Also aiding markets Thursday was a weaker Japanese yen versus the U.S. dollar.
📊The latest weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts, helping to allay some recent concerns on the strength of the labor market. First-time filings for jobless benefits came in at 233,000 last week, down 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the report
🔼Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly surged around 9% after posting better-than-expected earnings and raising its full-year outlook on strong demand for diabetes treatment Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound. The drugmaker now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $16.10 to $16.60, up from a previous guidance of $13.50 to $14 per share. The company also expects revenue for the year to come in between $45.4 billion and $46.6 billion, an increase of $3 billion at both ends of the range.
🔼Under Armour shares popped 20% during Thursday’s session, putting the athletic apparel company on pace for its best session since October 2018. The gains came after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal first quarter results. Under Armour posted earnings of 1 cent per share on $1.18 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG estimates an 8-cent loss per share and $1.15 billion in revenue.The company also agreed to settle a securities lawsuit for $434 million.
S&P Movers:
📈Monolithic Power +11%
📈Parker-Hannifin +11%
📈Eli Lilly +9%
📉McKesson -11%
📉Monster Beverage -11%
📉Warner Bros Discovery -9%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +2.3%
📈NASDAQ +2.9%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.1%
📈 DAX +0.4%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.0%
📉 NIKKEI -0.8%
🥇 GOLD +1.3%
💛 BTC +5.3%
😱 VIX -13.4%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 07.08.2024
↘️ US stocks failed to make a steady comeback on Wednesday, though all three of the major averages had been up more than 1% at some point during the session. Chip stocks led the losses on Wednesday, with AI leader Nvidia falling more than 5%.Europe and Asia stocks finished pretty green.
🇯🇵Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida sent a strong dovish signal in the wake of historic financial market volatility in Japan by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when the markets are unstable. The yen weakened by more than 2% against the dollar, bond futures spiked higher and stocks rebounded immediately after his comments, which were the first public remarks by a BOJ board member since the bank raised rates on July 31.
🇨🇳China’s exports growth unexpectedly slowed in July, signaling a cooling of global demand that has been propping up growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. Exports rose 7% in July in dollar terms from a year earlier, falling short of economists’ median forecast of a 9.5% gain, according to data from the customs administration Wednesday. Meanwhile, imports beat expectations and expanded 7.2%, narrowing a trade surplus to $84.65 billion from the previous month.
📱 Disney Q2 report showed the entertainment giant turned a profit in its streaming unit for the first time last quarter while the company also raised its full-year earnings forecast. Shares of Disney were down fell more than 4%, however, as investors digested concerns over Disney's park business.
💻 Super Micro stock fell over 20% as margins disappointed and the tech company, which has ridden a wave of AI enthusiasm, also announced a 10-for-1 stock split. As has been the case with other tech names over the past few weeks, investors expressed concern over how Super Micro's role in the global AI buildout will be a near-term profit boost.
S&P Movers:
📈Fortinet +25%
📈Axon +18%
📈Global Payments +8%
📉SuperMicroComp -20%
📉Airbnb -13%
📉Charles River Lab -13%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -0.6%
📉NASDAQ -0.8%
📈 STOXX 600 +1.5%
📈 DAX +1.5%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.1%
📈 NIKKEI +1.2%
🥇 GOLD -0.2%
💛 BTC -2.1%
😱 VIX +0.5%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 06.08.2024
↗️ S&P 500, Nasdaq lead comeback as stocks snap 3-day market rout. The benchmark had shed around 6% in the past three sessions, but Tuesday's rally helped push year-to-date gains to around 10%. Technology led the stock market's rally on Tuesday, with the sector surging 2.1%, followed by Real Estate, Financials, and Communication Services. Wall Street's "fear gauge" VIX fell back to 2022 levels after touching COVID peak on Monday
🇯🇵Japan’s Nikkei sees best day since October 2008. Japan’s stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday after the Nikkei 225 and the Topix dropped over 12% in the previous session. Other Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher. The Nikkei 225, which saw its largest loss in the previous session since the 1987 Black Monday crash, as well as the broad-based Topix gained over 9%. The rallies in Japan saw both indexes climb back into positive territories for the year so far.
📱Google lost an antitrust case in the US over dominance in the search engine market. A US federal judge has ruled that Google spent billions of dollars on exclusive deals to maintain an illegal monopoly in the search engine market. The trial will now move into the second phase. The US Department of Justice has not yet said what penalties it will seek, but according to the publication, it may focus on limiting Google's ability to enter into the deals at issue in the case.
🔼Shares of the ride-hailing giant Uber rose 11% after the company beat earnings expectations on both the top and bottom lines. It was the sixth consecutive quarter of trip growth above 20%, alongside record profitability.
🔼Similar to Uber, Palantir saw shares rise about 11% on positive earnings results, with the AI software player also lifting its full-year revenue forecast for the second time this year. The company now expects revenue between $2.74 billion and $2.75 billion, up from the prior $2.68 billion to $2.69 billion.
S&P Movers:
📈Kenvue +15%
📈Uber +11%
📈Royal Caribbean +8%
📉Henry Schein -8%
📉Albemarle -5%
📉Vulcan Materials -4%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.0%
📈 NASDAQ +1.0%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.3%
📈 DAX +0.1%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.2%
📈 NIKKEI +10.2%
🥇 GOLD -0.5%
💛 BTC +3.1%
😱 VIX -28.2%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 05.08.2024
↘️ The global stock market rapidly sold off after Friday's US jobs report added to concerns about the economy and whether the Federal Reserve had waited too long to begin cutting interest rates. S&P 500's losses cascaded nearly 3% in its worst day since 2022, capping its worst start to any month since 2002. Crypto also took a beating, with bitcoin sinking more than 10% to creep back toward the $54,000 level.
🇯🇵Nikkei lost 12.4% - the worst day for the index since the “Black Monday” of 1987. The Nikkei erased all its gains so far this year, moving into a loss position. Heavyweight trading houses such as Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Co, Sumitomo and Marubeni all plunged over 14%. The yen also strengthened to its highest level against the dollar since January, and was last trading at 142.09.
✂️ Markets are rapidly pricing in more interest rate cuts. Economists largely agree that the risks to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates too high and potentially stunting economic growth have risen. As of Monday, markets are pricing in more than five interest rate cuts by the end of the Fed's January 2025 meeting, roughly two more cuts than markets had priced less than a week ago on July 31.
💸 Bitcoin is having its worst week since the fall of FTX. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell 14.85% through the week ending Saturday, before resuming its decline by another 7% over the last 24 hours amid a larger correction across all markets. The price of the digital asset also briefly tumbled below $50,000 to its lowest price since February. It has lost more than $13,000 in value over the last seven days. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is absorbing even heavier losses. It fell more than 15% for the same 24-hour period, briefly seeing its biggest single-day drop since late 2021.
🍏Warren Buffett sold half of his Apple holdings and raised Berkshire cash level to record $277 billions. Berkshire has been a seller of stocks for seven quarters straight, but that selling accelerated in the last period with Buffett shedding more than $75 billion in equities in the second quarter. That brings the total of stocks sold in the first half of 2024 to more than $90 billion. The selling by Buffett has continued in the third quarter in some areas with Berkshire trimming its second biggest stake, Bank of America, for 12 consecutive days, filing this week showed.
⚠️Wall Street's 'Fear Index' hits highest since 2020 coronavirus pandemic. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rise on Monday reached 178.2% at 65.07 points, in March 2020 the index rose to 85.47 points. The main reason for the collapse in global stock markets was fears about a recession in the United States after the employment report for July did not live up to expectations. VIX ended Monday at 38.57 with 65% upside
S&P Movers:
📈Kellanova +16%
📈Tyson Foods +2%
📈Crowdstrike +2%
📉Caezars Entertainment -7%
📉Walgreens Boots Alliance -7%
📉Etsy -7%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -3.0%
📉 NASDAQ -3.4%
📉 STOXX 600 -2.2%
📉 DAX -1.8%
📉 SHANGHAI -1.5%
📉 NIKKEI -12.4%
🥇 GOLD -0.7%
💛 BTC -9.8%
😱 VIX +64.9%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 05.08
⏺PMIs of US, China and Eurozone
⏺Earnings reports Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, Clover, Simon Property Group
Tuesday 06.08
⏺US Trade Balance
⏺Earnings reports from Uber, Airbnb, Caterpillar, Amgen, Reddit
Wednesday 07.08
⏺Earnings reports from Shopify, Robinhood, Disney, CVS, Sony
Thursday 08.08
⏺China Foreign Trade
⏺Earnings reports from Plug, Datadog, Paramount, Unity
Friday 09.08
⏺China, Germany CPI
⏺Earnings reports from Nikola, AMC
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔼Three Stocks That Hit All-Time High Despite Market Shaking
Even in the darkest times there are champions in the market who, despite the trend, not just rush to the top, but also update historical records. It is not surprising that this week among these were many representatives of the sectors that benefited from the Fed’s key rate cut – utilities, telecoms and real estate.
Ryan Specialty Holdings
⏺Insurance – Specialty
⏺Market Cap – $8 bln
Ryan Specialty Holdings is a wholesale broker and managing underwriter. It provides specialty distribution, underwriting, product development and risk management services to insurance brokers, agents and carriers. The stock hit a new high on beating earnings expectations and signing agreement to acquire US Assure, a leading program specializing in builder’s risk insurance
💵RYAN💲
Current price - $68.57
YTD Perf - up 59.39%
Wall Street Target Price - 63.50
Buy/Hold/Sell - 4/10/2
Duke Energy
⏺Utilities – Regulated Electric
⏺Market Cap – $88 bln
Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) is one of the powerhouses in the regulated electric space. Together with its subsidiaries, Duke operates two main business units, one covering electric utilities and the other focused on gas. One of the company’s key advantages is geography. Covering the Carolinas, Florida and the Midwest, Duke is positioned where many young people are moving to. The stock hit a new high as defensive stock during market turmoil and because of hot summer boosting demand for gas and electricity
💲DUK💲
Current price - $113.92
YTD Perf - up 17.39%
Wall Street Target Price - 108.73
Buy/Hold/Sell - 9/12/0
T-Mobile US Inc
⏺Telecom Services
⏺Market Cap – $220 bln
The company is a 5G network leader, with a U.S. footprint that covers more ground than its two top rivals combined (98% of Americans are within T-Mobile’s 5G range). Stock hit ATH on positive earning and prospect of rates cut. Rising rates were one of the biggest risks for telecom companies like T-Mobile because they were eating up improving operating cash flow. If that headwind is now easing, it could become a tailwind as refinancing debt at lower rates becomes more cost-effective and cash can be returned to shareholders.
💲TMUS💲
Current price - $188.76
YTD Perf - up 17.78%
Wall Street Target Price - 200.95
Buy/Hold/Sell - 26/3/1
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 02.08.2024
↘️ Nasdaq falls into correction as fresh job market data showing signs of trouble. According to July jobs report the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% - nearly 3-year high. Those additional signs of a slowdown in the labor market are likely to feed recession fears and rate-cut expectations. Traders are now pricing in three rate cuts this year and bets are on a 50 basis-point reduction in September. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest since December as investors flooded into bonds for safety on the fear the Federal Reserve made a mistake this week by keeping interest rates at current levels.
🔽Chip giant Intel plummeted more than 26% on Friday, finishing one of its worst trading days in 40 years. The massive declines followed a catastrophic Q2 report during which the company announced anticipated third quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations, and that it will be cutting 15% of its workforce and suspending its dividend payments amid a broader restructuring plan.The decline was among the stock's worst performances since at least 1982, according to available data from Bloomberg.
📱 Amazon fell more than 8% Friday after the retail and cloud giant Q3 forecast fell short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Even as Amazon brought home earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, beating estimates of $1.04 and nearly doubling profits from the same period last year, investors focused instead on the report's weaknesses. A bright spot of the report came from its cloud business, Amazon Web Services. AWS raked in $26.3 billion in revenue compared to the $26 billion expected and well above the $22.1 billion during the same time last year.
🇯🇵Japanese indexes lost more 5% on economic concerns. Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. The fall, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year.
S&P Movers:
📈Clorox +7%
📈Godaddy +7%
📈MarketAxess +6%
📉Intel -26%
📉Microchip -11%
📉Prudential Fin -10%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -1.8%
📉 NASDAQ -2.4%
📉 STOXX 600 -2.7%
📉 DAX -2.3%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.9%
📉 NIKKEI -5.8%
🥇 GOLD +0.1%
💛 BTC -3.5%
😱 VIX +25.8%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 01.08.2024
↘️ Fresh US macro data brought fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
💸After these macro releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below psychologically important 4% for the first time since February. As that report came in, traders upped their bets that the Fed will be cutting rates this year. They raised the odds for cuts at each of the three remaining FOMC meetings this year, and pushed up the likelihood of a full percentage point of reductions to about 20%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
🎢 According to one metric, it was the market's most volatile day since November 2022.The S&P 500 was up 0.8% ahead of a key reading on U.S. manufacturing activity. After the report added to the picture of economic weakness that appeared to spook investors, stocks began a relentless decline that saw the large-cap index fall as much as 2% at the day's lows.
🛠 The S&P 500 Utilities Index on Thursday surged to its highest since the spring of 2022 as fixed income yields tumbled and investors sought the safety of less-volatile stocks offering steady dividends and now, in some instances, growth tied to the artificial intelligence power boom. Lower bond yields boost utilities’ bottom lines because of the capital-intensive nature of their investment spending, and constant need to refinance and roll over existing debt.
🏴The Bank of England cut interest rates from a 16-year high - to 5.00% from 5.25%. It was the central bank's first cut since March 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, giving Britain's new government a boost as it seeks to speed up the pace of economic growth. Sterling slipped to its lowest against the U.S. dollar since early July and bond yields also fell slightly after the BoE's announcement with the yield on 10-year gilts touching its lowest since March.
🇯🇵Japanese Topix stock index showed its biggest decline since April 2020. The sharp strengthening of the yen put pressure on shares of Japanese exporting companies, and an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan contributed to the fall in shares of the real estate sector. The largest contribution to the decline in the Topix stock index was made by the most valuable company in Japan - automaker Toyota Motor. Its shares fell 8.5% on a stronger yen and disappointing first-quarter operating profit.
🥇Gold Exceeded $2,500 Per Ounce For The First Time In History. Yesterday's statements by the Federal Reserve about an imminent rate cut triggered another jump in gold prices. An important growth factor is geopolitics. A very problematic presidential election is brewing in the United States, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire
S&P Movers:
📈CH Robinson +15%
📈FMC Corp +10%
📈Air Products & Chemicals +9%
📉Moderna -21%
📉MGM Resorts -13%
📉Lam Research -10%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -1.4%
📉 NASDAQ -2.3%
📉 STOXX 600 -1.2%
📉 DAX -2.3%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.2%
📉 NIKKEI -2.5%
🥇 GOLD +0.7%
💛 BTC -0.3%
😱 VIX +13.6%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 31.07.2024
↗️ Stock market pops after Fed chairman confirms September rate cut is pretty possible, Dow Jones marks 4th straight day in green
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve officials held short-term interest rates steady at 5.25-5.50%, but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target. Fed chief Jerome Powell said a reduction in US interest rates is on the table in September if inflation slows further like it has in the past several months.
🇯🇵 Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose as the country’s central bank raised benchmark interest rates to around 0.25%. This marks the first time since December 2008 that Japan’s benchmark interest rate stands higher than 0.1%. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting the bank to hold rates at the 0% to 0.1% range, though other analysts had expected a hike. Bank of Japan also said that it will reduce the monthly outright purchases of Japanese government bonds to about 3 trillion yen ($19.64 billion) per month in the January to March 2026 quarter.
🔼Nvidia stock rallied more than 12% on Wednesday following better-than-expected guidance from peer AMD and a bullish call from analysts at Morgan Stanley after a more than 20% drop in the stock. AMD quarterly results out late Tuesday quelled some concerns that the AI trade may have run its course as investors rotated out of Big Tech over the past month. The company beat expectations on the top and bottom lines and posted a better-than-expected outlook for the third quarter.
🛢 Oil futures tallied their largest one-day gain in months on Wednesday as the assassination of a top Hamas leader in Iran and a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon stoked concerns over further Middle Eastern tensions. A fifth consecutive weekly drop in US crude supplies offered additional support to prices
S&P Movers:
📈Vistra Corp +15%
📈Match Group +13%
📈Nvidia +13%
📉Humana -11%
📉Verisk Analytics -9%
📉Bunge Global -8%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.6%
📈 NASDAQ +2.6%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.8%
📈 DAX +0.5%
📈 SHANGHAI +2.1%
📈 NIKKEI +1.5%
🥇 GOLD +1.7%
💛 BTC -3.5%
😱 VIX -7.5%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔴 Market Pulse / 30.07.2024
↘️ US stocks mostly fell Tuesday, following declines in megacap tech stocks, as investors braced for quarterly reports from Misrosoft and AMD afterhours. Traders also set their eyes on Washington as the Federal Reserve began its latest policy meeting.
🏆 The US National Debt Exceeded $35 Trillion For The First Time In History. The House of Representatives committee report said that the current US national debt corresponds to $104 thousand per person, $266 thousand per household or $483 thousand per child. The material also indicates that since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the national debt has increased by $7.25 trillion.
⬇️ CrowdStrike shares fell 9.7% after reported news that Delta Air Lines hired attorney David Boies to seek damages from the cybersecurity company and Microsoft after an outage this month led to thousands of flight cancellations. Shares of CrowdStrike are down nearly 40% in July, on pace for their worst monthly performance ever.
⬇️ Merck marked its worst day since 2021 on Tuesday. Sell-off comes after the company delivered a full-year outlook that was softer than Wall Street anticipated. Merck forecast full-year earnings between $7.94 and $8.04 per share, under the consensus estimate of $8.16 from analysts polled by FactSet. That overshadowed stronger-than-expected earnings for Q2.
🛢 Oil futures declined on Tuesday to tally a third straight session decline and settles near its lowest price in 8 weeks as the market failed to shake off concerns about the outlook for demand from China, the world’s largest crude importer. Questionable data coming out of China is the main driver in the overall retraction, according to analysts. Now they see China’s petroleum demands not as robust as they thought just a few weeks ago.
S&P Movers:
📈Howmet Aerospace +13%
📈F5 Inc +13%
📈Stanley Black & Decker +10%
📉Merck -10%
📉Crowdstrike -10%
📉Ecolab -8%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -0.5%
📉 NASDAQ -1.3%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈 DAX +0.5%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.4%
📈 NIKKEI +0.1%
🥇 GOLD +1.3%
💛 BTC -1.8%
😱 VIX +6.6%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 29.07.2024
↗️ Stocks are up to a slow start of a crucial week with FED decision and big tech earnings ahead. Gauge of Magnificent 7 megacaps gained 1%, while Russell 2000 lost 1.1%
🇯🇵 Meanwhile Japan’s Nikkei snaps 8-day losing streak as Japan stocks rebound to lead gains in Asia. Traders assess U.S. inflation data, await BOJ meeting on Wednesday
🔼Alibaba shares showed the strongest growth in two months - new commissions will be established for sellers on the Tmall and Taobao platforms. Starting September 1, Alibaba will begin charging a software fee of 0.6% on each confirmed transaction. This measure will increase Alibaba's revenue from sales on Tmall and Taobao and will further support the stock's growth.
🔼McDonald's stock pops even as the fast-food giant Q2 earnings fell short of analyst expectations. CEO said in earning call that $5 value meal the company launched last month has been successful, benefiting sales growth
🔽Oil settles lower after 3 consecutive weeks of losses. On Monday WTI ended at lowest in about 7 weeks despite fears of a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Next big move for oil is possible after OPEC meeting on Thursday
S&P Movers:
📈ON Semiconductors +12%
📈Revvity +9%
📈Resmed +6%
📉Enphase Energy -5%
📉ServiceNow -3%
📉 Southwest Airlines -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.1%
📈 NASDAQ +0.1%
📉 STOXX 600 -0.2%
📉 DAX -0.5%
📈 SHANGHAI 0%
📈 NIKKEI +2.1%
🥇 GOLD -0.1%
💛 BTC -1.1%
😱 VIX +1.3%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🗓 COMING UP NEXT WEEK
MONDAY 29.07
⏺Earnings reports McDonald’s, Tilray, F5, Philips
TUESDAY 30.07
⏺Eurozone GDP
⏺US Job Openings
⏺Earnings reports from AMD, Microsoft, PayPal, Starbucks, BP, Merck, P&G, Pfizer, First Solar
WEDNESDAY 31.07
⏺China PMIs
⏺FOMC rate
⏺Earnings reports from Meta, Boeing, Arm, Qualcomm, Western Digital, Teva
THURSDAY 01.08
⏺Bank of England rate
⏺US PMIs
⏺Earnings reports from Amazon, Intel, Moderna, Block, Coinbase, Apple
FRIDAY 02.08
⏺US July Jobs report
⏺Earnings reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, Frontier
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🔔 The Market Is Waiting For A Next Week Hint From The US Federal Reserve About Lowering Interest Rates
👍 Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that this will happen as early as next week, when the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve takes place. This will begin rate cuts in September and at least once more until early 2025.
🗣In recent weeks, Fed officials have said the labor market has returned to balance and inflation has resumed its decline toward the central bank's 2% target. This is a strong argument for easing monetary policy.
🔎 In addition to rising unemployment and lower inflation, weak corporate earnings reports, which have already hit the American market, as well as US consumer sentiment, which has fallen to an eight-month low due to high prices, speak in favor of lowering rates.
⏺One complication for the September meeting will be its proximity to the presidential election. Initiating rate cuts less than two months before the election is likely to face criticism over political motives
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 26.07.2024
↗️ Stocks all around the world partly retreated from last two-days losses, while Dow Jones posted 4th straight weeks of gains after a fresh reading on US inflation renewed investor optimism for Fed rate cut in September
ℹ️ Friday’s power for comeback consisted of oversold sentiment, a stronger-than-expected GDP report Thursday and the view that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates due to economic resilience
🔴 Market Pulse / 25.07.2024
🔽S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped on Thursday, failing to recover from previous session’s losses as tech stocks are still on sale while rotation to value and small-cap stocks continues. The AI stocks that led on the way up are now leading on the way down. Dow Jones and Russell 2000 closed in green area
🇺🇸 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q2. That was not only a significant rebound from the 1.4% pace logged in the first three months of the year, but it surpassed the 1.9% growth forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet.
🇯🇵 Japan’s Nikkei marked its seventh straight day of losses to plunge 3.28%, the most in 9 years, leading declines among Asian indexes as the region saw a broad sell-off after Wall Street tumbled overnight. The yen also marked a fourth-straight day of strengthening against the U.S. dollar, hitting an 11-week low of 152.28 against the greenback.
🇨🇳 China Unexpectedly Cuts 1-year Policy Rate By Most Since 2020. PBOC decreased the rate of the medium-term lending facility by 20 bp to 2.3%. The cut follows China`s central bank trim of 7-day reverse repo by 10 bp on Monday. The PBOC string of rate cuts underscores authorities growing urgency to support growth of lagging economy
🥉 Copper is below $9,000 for the first time in 3 months due to growing pessimism about the global and especially the Chinese economy; amid rising inventories, copper has fallen for 9 trading sessions in a row
🚙 Ford Motor shares tumbled 18.4% for their worst day since 2008 after Q2 earnings came in much lower than analysts expected. Ford posted adjusted earnings per share of 47 cents compared to the consensus forecast of 68 cents, according to LSEG. However, automotive revenue of $44.81 billion came in above the consensus estimate of $44.02 billion.
S&P Movers:
📈ServiceNow +13%
📈Molina Healthcare +12%
📈Universal Health Services +10%
📉Edwards Lifesciences -31%
📉Ford -18%
📉West Pharma -14%
Market Data
📉 S&P 500 -0.5%
📉 NASDAQ -0.9%
📉 STOXX 600 -0.7%
📉 DAX -0.5%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.5%
📉 NIKKEI -3.0%
🥇 GOLD -2.3%
💛 BTC -1.7%
😱 VIX +2.3%
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⚠️ JPMorgan Now Sees US Recession Chance At 35% By End Of This Year
⏺Its up from 25% as of the start of last month. Analytics kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%.
⏺JPMorgan now sees just a 30% chance of the Federal Reserve and its peers keeping interest rates high for long, compared with a 50-50 assessment as recently as two months back.
⏺JPMorgan sees the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point in September and November as US inflation pressures coming down
⏺Goldman Sachs Group Inc.was the latest before JPMorgan to raise its recession forecast. The bank’s new calculation now sees a 25% probability of a recession in a year
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⚡️Airbnb Stock Loses 15% After Delivering Weak Booking Outlook
📱 In its Q2 report, the accommodation booking service gave a disappointing forecast about a slowdown in demand from tourists. Airbnb's quarterly revenue increased, while profit decreased compared to last year and was below analysts' expectations
⚠️The service warned of a slowdown in demand for bookings of “nights and experiences.” According to the report, bookings rose 8.7% in the second quarter to 125.1 million, well below analysts' estimates, which had expected growth of 9.8%.
📊 Airbnb's revenue in the second quarter increased by 11% year-on-year, to $2.75 billion. Net income decreased by 15%, to $555 million, or to $0.86 per share. Airbnb said it expects a "sequential slowdown" in bookings in the next quarter. In this case, the upcoming results will disappoint analysts, who had expected growth of 11% taking into account the summer tourist season. Given the forecast, Airbnb's growth rate could be the slowest since 2020.
💬RBC Capital Markets analysts called Airbnb's report disappointing. In their opinion, the service’s forecast will strengthen the market’s opinion of weak consumption. Morningstar analysts noted that Airbnb is not immune to the slowdown in travel demand, but remains a well-positioned brand for the long term.
💲ABNB💲
Current price - $110.86
YTD Perf - down 18.57%
Wall Street Target Price - 151.69
Buy/Hold/Sell - 12/25/7
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🇺🇸US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 75% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 78% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ Collectively companies are reporting earnings this season averaging 4.5% above forecasts, below the 5-year average of 8.6% and below the 10-year average of 6.8%.
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Tuesday:
Uber, Rivian, Caterpillar, Airbnb, Amgen
Wednesday:
CVS Health, Shopify, Robinhood, Sony
Thursday:
DataDog, Plug, Novavax, TradeDesk
Friday:
AMC, Nikola, Canopy Growth
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⚠️ Wall Street's 'Fear Index' Hits Highest Since 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic
⏺The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rise on Monday reached 178.2% at 65.07 points, in March 2020 the index rose to 85.47 points. The VIX is an estimate of the expected 30-day volatility of the US market.
🔽On August 5, American stock indices fell amid sales on global stock markets and lost 3-5%. The negative pressure on the American market on Monday was strengthened by the news that Warren Buffett's investment company Berkshire Hathaway reported that it had reduced its stake in Apple by almost half.
⚡️The main reason for the collapse in global stock markets was fears about a recession in the United States after the employment report for July did not live up to expectations. In addition, investors are concerned that the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates. At the end of July, the Fed kept the base rate in the range of 5.25–5.5% for the eighth time in a row.
📉 In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index experienced its biggest drop since March 2022 on August 5, down 3.2%. In Asia, the fall in Japanese stock indices was the largest since Black Monday in 1987. The Nikkei 225 and Topix indices lost more than 12%. Their fall began last week, after the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 0.25% from the previous 0-0.1%. This led to the strengthening of the yen against the dollar: the Japanese currency had previously been popular among traders due to its low volatility.
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 04.08.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -2.1%
🔽DOW JONES -2.1%
🔽NASDAQ -3.3%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔽STOXX 600 -2.9%
🔽DAX -4.1%
🔽FTSE 100 -1.3%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔽HANG SENG -0.4%
🔼SHANGHAI +0.5%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -4.7%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔽BRENT -4.4%
🔼GOLD +3.4%
🔽BITCOIN -9.5%
🔼VIX +43%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺US stocks crashed at the end of the week as fresh macro data showing signs of possible recession. On Thursday The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. According to July jobs report, that came on Friday, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% - nearly 3-year high. Those additional signs of a slowdown in the labor market are likely to feed recession fears and rate-cut expectations. Nasdaq entered correction zone after the Friday close, while 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest since December as investors flooded into bonds for safety on the fear the Federal Reserve made a mistake this week by keeping interest rates at current levels.
⏺Federal Reserve met expectations with their rate decision on Wednesday. Officials held short-term interest rates steady at 5.25-5.50%, but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target. Fed chief Jerome Powell said a reduction in US interest rates is on the table in September if inflation slows further like it has in the past several months. After Friday crash economists bet on three cut till the end of 2024, with two cuts likely 50 bp.
⏺Big tech didn’t bring too much positive with their fresh earnings. Microsoft beat on the top and bottom lines, but missing on cloud revenue expectations Amazon fell more than 8% Friday after the retail and cloud giant Q3 forecast fell short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Apple reported beat on a revenue, but sales of the iPhone fell from a year earlier, down 0.9% to $39.3 billion. Meta shares were the only one to bring positive reporting beat of Wall Street expectations and offering a rosy revenue forecast.
⏺Japanese indexes lost more 5% on economic concerns and BoJ rate hike. Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan. The fall on Friday, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year.
⏺The US national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time in history. The House of Representatives committee report said that the current US national debt corresponds to $104 thousand per person, $266 thousand per household or $483 thousand per child. The material also indicates that since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the national debt has increased by $7.25 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2034, the United States' national debt will increase to $50.7 trillion, or 122% of the country's GDP. According to the IMF, if current approaches to fiscal policy are maintained, the US public debt will double by 2053.
⏺Gold exceeded $2,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Wednesday statements by the Federal Reserve about an imminent rate cut triggered another jump in gold prices. An important growth factor is geopolitics. A very problematic presidential election is brewing in the United States, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire
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⚠️ Wall Street Experts Expect Sharper Fed Rate Cuts Amid Recession Signals
Wall Street banks are calling on the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates based on recent data that the labor market is cooling
🔴 Economists at Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. revised its forecasts for US monetary policy on Friday after data showed the US unemployment rate rose again in July. Everyone is calling for earlier or larger interest rate cuts.
©️ Citigroup:
Rate cuts by 50 bp in September and November and by 25 bp in December, although previously they predicted a rate cut of 25 bp at all three meetings. The Fed will then cut rates by 25 bp at each meeting until mid-2025, bringing its policy range to 3-3.25%.
50 bp rate cuts in September and November, then 25 bp cuts at each subsequent meeting; in addition, there are compelling reasons to act before the next meeting on September 18.
🔴Japanese Indexes Plummet More 5% On Economic Concerns
↘️ Nikkei and Topix driven down by signs of cooling in the U.S. economy and an interest-rate increase by the Bank of Japan.
🇯🇵 The fall, which was the largest since the tsunami that triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, wiped away almost $600 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
🇯🇵 The yen is rising this week to a four-month high against USD on the new outlook for interest rates, which in turn threaten to erode the earnings of exporters who drove the nation’s equities higher for much of this year. Stocks of exporters like Honda Motor Co., Hitachi Ltd. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd were brutally hammered on Friday
🇯🇵 A rotation out of large tech shares exacerbated the slump as signs of strain in the US economy led traders to reconsider whether Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is wise to hold off cutting interest rates before September. Tech shares were among the biggest decliners on the Nikkei, with Tokyo Electron Ltd. tumbling 12% and Screen Holdings Co. retreating 13%.
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🥇 Gold Exceeded $2,500 Per Ounce For The First Time In History
🔼Yesterday's statements by the Federal Reserve about an imminent rate cut triggered another jump in gold prices.
❕Traditionally, gold rises in anticipation of low interest rates. At the same time, gold did not stop growing even when rate cuts were delayed for many months in a row.
🇵🇸An important growth factor is geopolitics. A very problematic presidential election is brewing in the United States, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is adding fuel to the fire - Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by Israel on Wednesday in Iran.
🎯 Bank of America analysts expect gold prices to reach to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12-18 months. JP Morgan has more restrained forecasts - $2,600 by the end of 2025.
💸 Over the past 12 months, gold has risen in price by more than 20%. Gold's gains paralleled a sharp fall in U.S. Treasurys with yields sliding across the curve, as the market is now pricing in a guaranteed chance of a 25 basis point cut.
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🟦 Microsoft Falls After Cloud Numbers Disappoint In Q4 Earnings
👀 Microsoft (MSFT) released fresh earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating on the top and bottom lines, but missing on cloud revenue expectations.
Microsoft: fiscal Q4 earnings:
💻Revenue: $64.7 bln (+15% YoY)
💻Net Income: $22.0 bln (+10% YoY)
💻Microsoft Cloud: $36.8 bln (+22% YoY)
💻Microsoft 365 subs: 82.5 mln (+10% YoY)
⏺Microsoft's overall cloud revenue came in at $36.8 billion, in line with expectations of $36.8 billion, but the company's Intelligent Cloud revenue, which includes its Azure services, fell short, coming in at $28.5 billion versus expectations of $28.7 billion.
⏺While Microsoft's cloud business missed expectations, overall revenue still rose 15% year over year. Intelligent Cloud revenue, meanwhile, increased 19% year over year.
According to UBS analyst Karl Keirstead, Microsoft has also been grabbing more market share from Google and Amazon.
🗣“In terms of share shifts among AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, the most consistent theme in this round of checks was the number of customers and partners that cited share gains by Microsoft resulting from its early lead on the AI front,”
☄️ The US National Debt Exceeded $35 Trillion For The First Time In History
🏆The US national debt has updated its record. In January 2024, the debt volume exceeded $34 trillion for the first time. Last June, US President Joe Biden suspended the debt limit until January 2025.
🔴The House of Representatives committee report said that the current US national debt corresponds to $104 thousand per person, $266 thousand per household or $483 thousand per child. The material also indicates that since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the national debt has increased by $7.25 trillion.
💰The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2034, the United States' national debt will increase to $50.7 trillion, or 122% of the country's GDP. According to the IMF, if current approaches to fiscal policy are maintained, the US public debt will double by 2053.
😓 The US spends more to finance its national debt due to higher interest rates. Net interest payments on debt are expected to be 3.2% of GDP in 2024, the highest since 1991, according to Bloomberg.
🗣IMF called the growth of US government debt a threat to the global and American economy, so there is a need to stop the continuing increase in the ratio of government debt to GDP.
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🇺🇸 US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 41% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 78% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ Aggregate EPS of S&P 500 rose 9.8% annually. Among the leaders are communication services (+20.7%) and information technologies (+17.2%), while the main lagger is materials (-10.3%).
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Monday:
McDonald's, Philips, Tilray
Tuesday:
Procter & Gamble, Merck, AMD, Pfizer, PayPal, Pinterest, Starbucks
Wednesday:
Meta, Mastercard, T-Mobile, QUALCOMM, Boeing, Humana
Thursday:
Apple, Amazon, Toyota, Shell, Intel, Snap, Moderna, Booking, Crocs
Friday:
Exxon, Chevron, Frontier, Fluor
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 28.07.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -0.8%
🔼DOW JONES +0.7%
🔽NASDAQ -2.1%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔼STOXX 600 +0.6%
🔼DAX +1.4%
🔼FTSE 100 +1.6%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔽HANG SENG -2.3%
🔽SHANGHAI -3.1%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -6.0%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔽BRENT -4.6%
🔽GOLD -0.6%
🔼BITCOIN +1.2%
🔽VIX -0.8%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺Tesla and Alphabet earnings bring chaos
On Wednesday US market tumbled for the worst day since 2022 as Tesla, Alphabet dipped on earnings. Although Alphabet reported a top and bottom line beat, Youtube advertising revenue fell below estimates. Meanwhile Tesla suffered huge profit drop and delayed robotaxi presentation. That day NASDAQ lost more 3% bringing bad expectations of next-week reports of some more megacaps: Apple, Microsoft and Amazon
⏺Fresh economic data brings more confidence in September rate cut
US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q2. That was not only a significant rebound from the 1.4% pace logged in the first three months of the year, but it surpassed the 1.9% growth forecast by economists surveyed by FactSet. On a monthly basis, headline PCE (an inflation reading that is preferred by policymakers) rose 0.1% and by 2.5% from a year ago.
⏺PBOC brings unexpected rate cuts
The PBOC cut its medium-term lending facility and reduced its seven-day reverse repo rate (a key short-term policy rate). Shortly afterward, Chinese banks cut their one- and five-year loan prime rates by 10 basis points to 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively, making it cheaper for consumers to take out mortgages and other loans. The string of rate cuts pointed to Beijing’s growing urgency to support growth after China’s GDP undershot expectations in the Q2.
⏺Nikkei falls for 5 days amid strengthening yen
The yen strengthened for the third successive week, continuing to hurt the profit outlook for Japanese exporters. This follows indications that the government intervened in the foreign exchange markets earlier in July to prop up the Japanese currency. Japanese technology stocks remained under pressure as the shares of U.S. mega-cap technology companies continued to sell off.
⏺US market rotation still on
A performance shift within the U.S. equity market extended into a third week, with large caps trailing the previously lagging small-cap segment and growth equities underperforming the value style. Over the past three weeks, a large-cap benchmark fell a cumulative 1.5% while a small-cap index jumped 11.5%.
⏺VIX spiked and ended weekly flat
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) moved up near three-month highs this week, primarily driven by a sell-off in tech stocks. Volatility ramped up this week as the VIX hit its highest levels since April, the S&P 500 saw its first 2% down day in nearly a year and the NASDAQ saw its biggest one-day decline since 2022. However, VIX surge was short lived, as it subsequently retreated amid shifting investor sentiment, and it closed on Friday slightly below it closing level of the previous week.
⏺Oil slump
Amid expectations of sagging global demand, the price of U.S. crude oil fell nearly 4% for the week to around $77 per barrel, the lowest level in about seven weeks. As recently as July 3, oil was trading near $84 per barrel.
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🔉 Buffet Made Huge Sale of Bank of America Stock First Time Since 2019
🛒 Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold $2.3 billion worth of Bank of America shares in six days. The company began reducing its position in Bank of America for the first time since 2019:
1⃣ July 17-19 sold $1.5 billion worth at an avg price of $43.56
2⃣ July 22-24 sold $802.5 million at an avg price of $42.46
👌As a result, the conglomerate’s share in Bank of America fell to 12.5% from 12.81% at the end of Q1(according to the WhaleWisdom service).
ℹ️ The holding may have begun to take profits in the bank's shares after they updated the highs of March 2022 during trading on July 16, reaching $44.4 per share. In total, since the beginning of the year, quotes have increased by about 25%.
ℹ️ Berkshire Hathaway still owns 980.1 million shares of BofA, worth about $41.3 billion. By comparison, Apple's stake is worth about $172.5 billion.
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☄️ Apple Out Of Top-5 Smartphone Sellers In China
🍏 Apple left the top five of the Chinese smartphone market in the 2nd quarter of 2024, as local manufacturers were able to impose competition.
⚠️ This happened for the first time in 4 years. Apple sold just 9.7 million smartphones in China last quarter, despite cutting prices for its products, according to research firm Canalys.
📊 Top-5 smartphone vendors in China in Q2_2024 (compared in units shipped):
1⃣ Vivo 13.1 mln units
2⃣ Oppo 11.3 mln units
3⃣ Honor 10.7 mln units
4⃣ Huawei 10.6 mln units
5⃣ Xiaomi 9.7 mln units
🔽 The iPhone maker, which was the third-largest smartphone vendor in the second quarter last year, dropped to the sixth spot with about 9.7 million in shipments
🖥 Localization of Apple’s Intelligence services in mainland China will be an important move in the next 12 months, as Chinese brands are aggressively incorporating generative AI into their products.
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🇮🇳 India Is Ready To Take Away China's Status As The Largest Emerging Market
🔼India is emerging as one of the fastest growing markets in the world in local currency terms and has kept pace with the US in terms of growth over the past decades.
🔴 This aggressive pace has allowed India to take up just under a fifth of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, while China's share has fallen to a quarter, down from more than 40% in 2020. The gap was narrowed by sharply rising stock prices, higher sales volumes and higher earnings for Indian companies.
🔴 Emerging market investors' choice between the two countries now looks less clear-cut, with a strong Indian market in the balance against relatively inexpensive Chinese stocks that are facing an economic slowdown.
🔴 Many Indian households invest in local stocks to offset so-called low interest rates, which at best match the official inflation rate. Such local investments help offset the outflow of foreign investors from India
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