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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg
🟢 Market Pulse / 23.08.2024
↗️ The U.S. stock market finished sharply higher Friday, as investors appeared encouraged by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaling the Fed was on the path toward cutting interest rates. This declaration reflected the central bank's confidence in its fight against inflation and the market's widespread belief that the economy no longer needs a restrictive policy. Traders are pricing in around a 64% chance of a reduction of 25 basis points and 37% odds of 50 basis points, per CME's FedWatch tool.
🏙 Real estate stocks led the S&P 500's advance this week, rising 3.5% to serve as the best-performing sector in the index as investors cheered signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank will begin cutting interest rates next month. This follows a challenging year for commercial real estate, marked by a sharp decline in property values and record-high vacancy rates. However, the outlook for the group appears to have turned a corner for now.
📺 Shares of the TV streaming distributor Roku rose nearly 9% Friday as Guggenheim analysts upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $75. That represents a premium more than 20% up from Thursday's closing price. Analysts cited broadening video inventory for advertising sales and improved monetization for home screens heading into the third quarter.
🏠Sales of new homes increased 10.6% in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 739,000 units, up from June’s revised seasonally adjusted annual rate of 668,000, according to the Census Bureau on Friday. The uptick in sales activity likely reflects how lower rates have incentivized many builders to provide more attractive rates for house hunters who may finally see some relief from affordability challenges that have plagued the housing market for the better part of two years. In recent weeks, 30-year mortgage rates have dropped below 7% and are now at the lowest level since May 2023. Still, they remain double levels from three years ago.
S&P Movers:
📈Builders FirstSource +9%
📈Norwegian Cruise Line +8%
📈Carnival +8%
📉Intuit -7%
📉Brown&Brown -2%
📉Synopsys -2%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +1.2%
📈NASDAQ +1.5%
📈STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈DAX +0.8%
📈SHANGHAI +0.2%
📈NIKKEI +0.4%
🥇 GOLD +1.3%
💛 BTC +4.7%
😱 VIX -9.8%
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🔴 Market Pulse / 22.08.2024
↘️ US stocks rolled over Thursday with tech leading the losses as investors turn their focus to a key speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium kicked off Thursday with the market on high alert for any shift in tone from the policymakers when Powell speaks at the event on Friday.
🛠 Initial filings for unemployment benefits were roughly flat last week, reflecting a labor market that is cooling but not rapidly deteriorating as the employment outlook remains in focus ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Friday speech. New data from the Department of Labor released Thursday showed 232,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ending Aug. 17, up from 228,000 the week prior and in line with economists' expectations. Continuing jobless claims rose again to 1.86 million, the highest level since November 2021.
🚲Peloton shares popped more than 33%, putting the connected fitness company on pace for its best day on record. The gains came after the company posted its first sales increase in nine quarters as it implements its turnaround plan. Peloton topped revenue estimates and posted a smaller-than-expected loss of 8 cents per share. Earlier this year, the company announced a restructuring plan as it looks to bounce back from a post-pandemic slump. The company reached all-time highs in 2021 as lockdowns forced customers to work out from home.
📱 Zoom Video Communications posted better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings and issued guidance for fiscal 2025 that also came in higher than forecasts. Zoom Video said during the second quarter it “saw strength in large accounts, with customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12 months revenue increasing by 7.1% year over year.” Shares of the videoconferencing company rose 13%.
S&P Movers:
📈Franklin Resources +5%
📈Nordson Corp +3%
📈Centerpoint Energy +3%
📉Moderna -7%
📉Intel -6%
📉Tesla -6%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -0.9%
📉NASDAQ -1.7%
📈STOXX 600 +0.4%
📈DAX +0.2%
📉SHANGHAI -0.3%
📈NIKKEI +0.7%
🥇 GOLD -1.1%
💛 BTC -0.7%
😱 VIX +7.9%
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🟢 Market Pulse / 21.08.2024
↗️ The S&P 500 advanced Wednesday after a summary of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting last month reinforced hope for lower rates in the near future. Those moves came as Fed officials said a decrease to the borrowing cost during the September policy meeting was increasingly likely, according to minutes from the July gathering released Wednesday afternoon.
🗣️The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority" of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” Wall Street traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September, according to futures prices. A lower Fed benchmark rate would lead eventually to lower rates for auto loans, mortgages and other forms of consumer borrowing and could also boost stock prices.
💸Shares of Chinese e-commerce giant JD com plunged 10% on Wednesday in Hong Kong after U.S. retailer Walmart confirmed it will sell its stake in the Chinese firm. The decision to sell its stake will allow the company to focus on strong China operations for Walmart China and Sam’s Club, and deploy capital towards other priorities.” Walmart entered into a strategic alliance with the Chinese company in June 2016, with the U.S. retailer taking a 5% stake in JD com back then.
🎯Target shares added 11% as company beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations on Wednesday. Sales at the discounter grew as shoppers made more visits to Target’s stores and website and bought more discretionary items like clothing. Yet, the retailer struck a cautious note, saying it expects comparable sales for the full year to be in the lower range of its guidance.
S&P Movers:
📈Keysight Technologies +14%
📈Target +11%
📈TJX Companies +6%
📉Franklin Resources -13%
📉American Express -3%
📉Cooper Companies -2%
Market Data
📈S&P 500 +0.4%
📈NASDAQ +0.6%
📈STOXX 600 +0.3%
📈DAX +0.5%
📉SHANGHAI -0.4%
📉NIKKEI -0.3%
🥇 GOLD -0.1%
💛 BTC +3.2%
😱 VIX +2.5%
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🔴 Market Pulse / 20.08.2024
↘️ U.S. stock indexes finished lower on Tuesday as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite snapped a multisession rally after equities bounced back from a steep selloff earlier this month. Tuesday’s declines ended the eight-day winning streak for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The modest selloff also interrupted what would have been the longest winning streak for the S&P 500 in 20 years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
🥇 Gold prices extended their recent rally on Tuesday, with the precious metal trading above $2,545 per ounce as investors anticipate a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Gold, which typically does well in low-interest-rate environments as it does not produce an annual yield, has also seen an uptick in prices amid sticky inflation, along with heightened geopolitical risks and political uncertainty. Notably, with prices now firmly above $2,500 an ounce, one bar of gold costs more than 1 million dollars.
📺 Netflix stock just hit an all-time high. On Tuesday, shares of the streaming giant soared past their 2021 record intraday high of $701 to trade around $710. The moves come as investors applaud the company's foray into live sports while its ad-supported tier continues to gain traction, with the company revealing in a blog post that it secured "a 150% plus increase in upfront ad sales commitments over 2023." Upcoming movies and series like "Happy Gilmore 2" and "Squid Game 2," along with the recent acquisition of live sports content like the NFL Christmas Day games and WWE Raw, which will kick off in January 2024, have fueled the success of those ad partnerships.
⚒ Lowe's cut its annual profit and sales forecasts on Tuesday, echoing bigger rival Home Depot's concerns of a slim chance of a recovery in home improvement demand this year.The U.S. Federal Reserve was expected to cut interest rates earlier this year, but insufficient proof of easing inflation thus far has kept the rates high, which is affecting home sales, and consequently demand for expensive renovation projects.
S&P Movers:
📈Palo Alto Network +7%
📈Darden Restaurants +4%
📈PayPal +4%
📉Insulet Corp -7%
📉DexCom -6%
📉Valero Energy -5%
Market Data
📉S&P 500 -0.2%
📉NASDAQ -0.3%
📉STOXX 600 -0.5%
📉DAX -0.4%
📉SHANGHAI -0.9%
📈NIKKEI +1.8%
🥇 GOLD +0.4%
💛 BTC -1.5%
😱 VIX +8.4%
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🟢 Market Pulse / 19.08.2024
↗️ US stocks closed at session highs on Monday after posting their best week in a year as the markets continued to rally in a sharp turnaround from their early August sell-off. Stocks rose following last week's strong gains as a measure of calm returns to a market previously whipsawed by worries about a potential recession. Last week's rally recouped the losses stacked up in an early August sell-off as Wall Street fretted about cracks in the economy — concerns that have since been eased by encouraging inflation and consumer spending data.
📊Treasury 10-year yields fell one basis point to 3.87%. The dollar hit the lowest since March. Oil sank about 3%. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a cease-fire proposal for Gaza and “the next important step is for Hamas to say yes.”
🔼AMD shares rose about 5% early Monday after the company announced plans to acquire hyperscale solutions provider ZT Systems in a deal valued at $4.9 billion. The deal comes as AMD looks to broaden its AI infrastructure in order to compete with market leader Nvidia. Shares of AMD are up just over 2% since the start of the year while Nvidia shares have soared about 150%. Nvidia will report second quarter earnings next week.
🔼Shares of sports streamer fuboTV rallied another 15% on Monday following a Friday ruling that temporarily blocked the launch of Venu Sports, the upcoming sports streaming service from Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery and Fox. US District Judge Margaret Garnett determined in her ruling that the launch of the joint venture would substantially lessen competition and restrain trade.
S&P Movers:
📈EQT +5%
📈AMD +5%
📈Darden Restaurants +4%
📉HP Inc -4%
📉Starbucks -3%
📉Domino's Pizza -2%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.0%
📈 NASDAQ +1.5%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.6%
📈 DAX +0.5%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.5%
📉 NIKKEI -1.8%
🥇 GOLD +0.2%
💛 BTC -0.5%
😱 VIX -1.0%
📌Powered by V3V Ventures
🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 19.08
⏺Earnings reports Estee Lauder, Palo Alto Networks
Tuesday 20.08
⏺China LPR
⏺Germany PPI, Eurozone CPI
⏺Earnings reports from Lowe's, Medtronic, Toll Brothers, Xpeng
Wednesday 22.08
⏺FOMC minutes
⏺Earnings reports from Target, Zoom, Macy's, Snowflake, Analog Devices
Thursday 22.08
⏺Japan, Germany, Eurozone, UK, US PMIs
⏺Jackson Hole Symposium Day 1
⏺Earnings reports from Baidu, Peloton, Intuit, Canadian Solar
Friday 23.08
⏺Japan CPI
⏺US Home Sales
⏺Jackson Hole Symposium Day 2
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🚀Shares of Starlink Competitor Soared 50% On The News of Satellite Launch
📈 Shares of the American satellite manufacturer AST SpaceMobile grew by 47% over the week and reached a new all-time high. As a result, the company's market value exceeded $5 billion.
📡 AST SpaceMobile shares rose sharply after the company confirmed plans to launch the first commercial satellites into orbit in early September. AST SpaceMobile President Scott Wisniewski also said the company plans to begin operating its satellites by the end of the year. AST is working on 17 more satellites, the first of which is scheduled to launch into space in early 2025. The FCC has granted AST SpaceMobile a space operations license.
📊 In addition, AST SpaceMobile published a financial report for the second quarter of 2024 on August 14, after the close of trading. The presented figures were below analysts’ expectations. For example, the company's revenue for the specified period amounted to $900 thousand, and the net loss reached $72.6 million. Nevertheless, analysts at UBS Bank expressed optimism regarding the shares of AST SpaceMobile. They expect the company's earnings to grow significantly in 2026.
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🟢 Market Pulse / 16.08.2024
↗️ US Stocks secure best week of the year, reversing early August sell-off on macro positive week.
✂️Following the positive data, investors have also now pared back some of their more dramatic bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Data from the CME Group now shows investors placing 66% odds on the Fed cutting rates by 0.25% next month; odds of a 0.50% rate cut now stand at 33%. During the market's most turbulent moments last week, there was almost a near-certainty that a 0.50% cut would be warranted. The next key update from investors on the rates front will come next Friday when Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to speak before the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.
🔼Fubo stock surged as much as 22% on Friday after a judge issued an injunction blocking the launch of Venu, the sports streaming venture between Disney, Warner Bros., and Fox that was set to debut later this month. Fubo had sued to block the platform back in February, arguing the venture would lead to "the extreme suppression of competition in the US sports-focused streaming market. Friday's ruling potentially keeps Venu from launching this year, particularly notable given the accelerated launch of the service would've made it available in time for football season, with ESPN and Fox both having NFL rights and the rights to the SEC and Big Ten, the two biggest college football conferences, respectively.
🔼H&R Block shares headed for their best day in more than two years. The tax services provider jumped more than 12% after fiscal fourth-quarter results topped Street estimates, it raised its dividend and authorized a $1.5 billion buyback. H&R Block also issued a fiscal 2025 forecast reflecting another year of revenue growth.
🇯🇵Japan stocks led gains in Asia on Friday to notch their best week in four years, after Wall Street rallied overnight as fresh economic data eased recessionary fears. The Nikkei 225 jumped 3.64% to cross 38,000 for the first time since Aug. 1. On a weekly basis, the index was up 8.67%, its highest gain since April 2020, according to FactSet data. Japan’s broader Topix, gained 2.99% to close at 2,678.6, also clocking its best week since 2020 — up 7.86%.
🇨🇳 The People's Bank of China announced additional measures to stimulate GDP growth. That means intensifying efforts to effectively implement the monetary and financial policies that PBOC has been following since this year. China's economy is struggling to recover from its worst period in five quarters. The latest data from China's $17 trillion economy shows an overall loss of dynamism and signs of deterioration.
S&P Movers:
📈Dexcom +3%
📈Ulta Beauty +3%
📈Tapestry +3%
📉Amcor -4%
📉Chipotle Mexican Grill -3%
📉Palo Alto -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.2%
📈 NASDAQ +0.2%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.3%
📈 DAX +0.8%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.1%
📈 NIKKEI +3.6%
🥇 GOLD +2.2%
💛 BTC +1.1%
😱 VIX -2.8%
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🟢 Market Pulse / 15.08.2024
↗️ US stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, with the Dow posting its best day in a week after strong retail-sales data put fears of a looming recession at ease.
📊 Retail sales increased 1% in July, far surpassing an estimate from Dow Jones that forecast a 0.3% uptick. Also separately, weekly jobless claims fell for the week. The data served as a boon to investors and a broader market trying to mount a comeback from an August rout tied to concerns about a slowing economy that arose following July’s disappointing jobs report on Aug. 2. Dow logs best day in a week, S&P 500 turns positive for August
💵 US government debt sold off on Thursday, sending most yields higher, after a stronger than expected retail-sales report for July soothed concerns about the risk of an impending recession. The yield on the 2-year Treasury jumped 15 basis points to 4.099%, from around 3.949% on Wednesday. It was the largest one-day gain since April 10 and highest closing level since Aug. 1
🛒Walmart’s second-quarter earnings report, which led to a 6.4% jump in its stock during normal trading hours, reveals strong financial results. The company reported revenue of $169.3 billion. Additionally, Walmart saw an 8.5% rise in operating income. This performance underscores Walmart’s continued strength in both physical stores and eCommerce.
📶 Cisco reported its third straight quarter of declining revenue, wrapping up its first full fiscal year drop since 2020. The company said it’s cutting 7% of its global workforce. Earnings and revenue topped analysts’ estimates.
S&P Movers:
📈Ulta Beauty +11%
📈Albemarle +9%
📈Super Micro Comp +9%
📉Fair Isaac -4%
📉MarketAxess -3%
📉AT&T -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.6%
📈 NASDAQ +2.3%
📈 STOXX 600 +1.2%
📈 DAX +1.7%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.9%
📈 NIKKEI +0.8%
🥇 GOLD +0.5%
💛 BTC -2.5%
😱 VIX -5.8%
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🟢 Market Pulse / 14.08.2024
↗️ US stocks went for back to back gains as easing inflation bolsters rate cut hopes. Consumer prices increased 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in June and the lowest reading since March 2021. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy from the headline number, advanced 0.2% on the month, also in line with expectations. The report comes a day after lighter-than-expected wholesale inflation figures gave stocks a boost. Such data opens the door wider for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month.
😬The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) known as Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ has dropped back below 18, after spiking above 65 during last week’s sell-off. The seven trading sessions it took the VIX to return to its long-term median of 17.6 is the index’s quickest ever drop from 35, a level associated with a high degree of fear. Below 20 is a normal reading suggesting a risk-on bias in markets. On the other hand, a reading above 20 is a bearish indicator, reflecting heightened levels of fear and uncertainty.
🍬 Family-owned candy giant Mars is buying Cheez-It maker Kellanova in a nearly $36 billion deal, bringing together brands from M&M's and Snickers to Pringles and Pop-Tarts in the year's biggest deal to date. Mars said on Wednesday it will pay $83.50 per share for Kellanova representing about a 33% premium to its closing price on Aug. 2. Before Reuters first reported that Mars was exploring a deal for the maker of frozen breakfast foods, such as Morningstar Farms and Eggo
👙Victoria’s Secret shares surged more than 16% after the retailer announced the appointment of former Savage X Fenty CEO Hillary Super as the company’s CEO, effective Sept. 9. The company also provided preliminary second-quarter results, with adjusted operating income and adjusted diluted earnings per share coming in at a range above prior guidance.
S&P Movers:
📈Kellanova +8%
📈Progressive Corp +5%
📈Allstate Corp +5%
📉Albemarle Corp -6%
📉Etsy -5%
📉Tesla -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.6%
📈 NASDAQ +0.1%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈 DAX +0.4%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.6%
📈 NIKKEI +0.6%
🥇 GOLD -0.9%
💛 BTC -2.5%
😱 VIX -10.7%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 13.08.2024
↗️ U.S. indexes comfortly rose on Tuesday and hit a near two-week high after softer producer prices data reinforced bets of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Investors now await all-important consumer-price figures for July on Wednesday and retail sales data on Thursday to firm bets on an aggressive rate cut by the U.S. central bank.
📊 In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 2.2% after climbing 2.7% in June. It increased less than expected in July as the cost of services fell by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years amid signs of diminishing pricing power for businesses, evidence of waning inflation pressures that reinforced hopes of an interest rate cut next month. This report also showed favorable readings for most of the components that go into the calculation of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexes, the inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy. Moderating inflation should allow the U.S. central bank to focus more on the labor market.
🇯🇵Japan’s major indexes rose sharply on Tuesday, as trading in the country’s stocks resumed after a holiday, amid a broader rise in Asia-Pacific markets. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 3.45%, breaching the 36,000 level for the first time since Aug. 2. The momentum was largely driven by the country’s technology and financial sectors, with Rakuten Group and Trend Micro leaping 9.22% and 6.37%, respectively. The country’s parliament plans to hold a special session next week to discuss the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates last month, Reuters reported, citing government sources.
☕️Starbucks stock shot up 25% after the coffee chain ousted CEO Laxman Narasimhan effective immediately and replaced him with Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol, who will step in Sept 9. Three Wall Street firms already upgraded Starbucks stock after the news. Shares of Chipotle shed 8% on Niccol’s departure.
🛠 Shares of Home Depot Inc. reversed into the green on Tuesday, after the home improvement retail giant reported fiscal second-quarter comparable sales that were worse than forecasts, but implied that lower interest rates could spark interest in large projects. The company also provided a downbeat full-year outlook for profit and lowered its outlook for comparable sales growth, but raised its growth guidance for total sales.
S&P Movers:
📈Starbucks +25%
📈Estee Lauder +7%
📈Nvidia +7%
📉Chipotle Mexican Grill -7%
📉Baxter International -7%
📉EQT -4%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +1.7%
📈 NASDAQ +2.4%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.5%
📈 DAX +0.5%
📈 SHANGHAI +0.3%
📈 NIKKEI +3.5%
🥇 GOLD +0.1%
💛 BTC +3.7%
😱 VIX -11.7%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 12.08.2024
↗️ US stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors look ahead to a week full of key economic data, highlighted by CPI on Wednesday. Though the major indexes practically ended last week where they had started, it didn't come without volatility throughout the week. Strategists say that is likely to continue — and this week comes with plenty of opportunities. After Wednesday CPI here come two key signals on the state of the US consumer on Thursday: a reading on July's retail sales and Walmart earnings.
💰KeyCorp shares surged Monday morning after the bank announced a $2.8 billion investment from the Bank of Nova Scotia. Scotiabank will acquire about 163 million shares by the first quarter of 2025 after the companies receive regulatory approval. Cleveland-based KeyCorp called the investment a "unique opportunity to raise capital on attractive terms."
🛢Oil prices settled up more than 3% on Monday as Israel braces for a potential Iranian attack following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The looming threat of a broader conflict in the Middle East, a region that holds over half of the world’s oil reserves, has rattled markets, sending crude prices higher. Oil markets are bracing for potential disruptions to supply chains if hostilities escalate.
🛢 OPEC published fresh monthly report. For the first time this year, OPEC lowered forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. OPEC+ countries increased oil production in July and exceeded the plan taken into account of all voluntary reductions
S&P Movers:
📈Keycorp +9%
📈Super Micro Computer +6%
📈Nvidia +4%
📉Albemarle -7%
📉Solventum -5%
📉Walgreens Boots Alliance -5%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.0%
📈 NASDAQ +0.2%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.0%
📈 DAX +0.0%
📉 SHANGHAI -0.1%
📈 NIKKEI +0.6%
🥇 GOLD +1.6%
💛 BTC -0.5%
😱 VIX +1.2%
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 12.08
⏺Japan - markets closed
⏺OPEC weekly report
⏺Earnings reports Barrick Gold
Tuesday 13.08
⏺US, Japan PPI
⏺Earnings reports from Paysafe, Home Depot
Wednesday 14.08
⏺US, UK CPI
⏺Eurozone GDP
⏺Earnings reports from Cisco, Cardinal Health, UBS
Thursday 15.08
⏺Japan, UK GDP
⏺US Initial Jobless Claims
⏺US Retail Sales
⏺US, China Industrial Production
⏺Earnings reports from Alibaba, Applied Materials, Walmart, Coherent, JD
Friday 16.08
⏺US Housing Starts
⏺Earnings reports from Flowers Foods
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
☕️ Coffee Futures Are Pretty Close To Make Fresh Year High
🔼Futures for September delivery are surging in New York. That’s the last time traders wanting to bring beans into the European Union can buy from New York and London exchanges without concern about the deforestation regulation. Taking delivery of the December contract would be risky because traders may not have enough time to clear it through customs before the law takes effect at year’s end.
💬The EU aims to slash the 10% of global deforestation — and associated loss of biodiversity — linked to its consumption of commodities such as coffee, cocoa, timber and beef. The pending law requires every bean, log and cow entering the region to be traced to their origins, or the bloc will levy hefty penalties.
📊Prices of both the high-end arabica beans and the cheaper robusta variety have already spiked this year due to major supply disruptions from Vietnam to Brazil.
🌐 About 98% of arabica coffee stockpiles are held in ports in Europe, mainly Antwerp. Out of about 800,000 bags, only 15% are considered EUDR-compliant, leaving the rest classified as transition stock subject to penalties after Dec. 30.
📌This channel is owned by V3V Ventures
🟢 Market Pulse / 09.08.2024
↗️ US stocks inched upward on Friday as the stock market built on its incredible comeback from Monday's violent rout. The broad market index was close to reversing its weekly fall.
ℹ️This week marked the most volatile week of 2024 for the market. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022. Disappointing U.S. payrolls data from the prior week and concerns the Federal Reserve was too late with rate cuts were the main culprits for the selling, along with the unwinding of a popular currency trade by hedge funds. However, the major averages mounted a comeback, with Thursday's encouraging weekly jobless claims number helping alleviate investors' concerns about the U.S. economy.
🛢 U.S. crude oil gained more than 4% for the week as recession fears have eased and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East that could disrupt production and transportation looms over the market. The West Texas Intermediate contract for September rose 0.85% for the session to settle at $76.84 per barrel. The Brent October contract gained 0.63% to settle at $79.66 per barrel.
🔼Akamai Technologies reached headed for its best day in more than half a decade after the cloud company's better-than-expected earnings report. Friday's advance comes after the Massachusetts-based company said it earned $1.58 per share, excluding items, on $980 million in revenue for the second quarter. Analysts polled by LSEG expected just $1.53 in earnings per share on $977 million in revenue.
🔽E.l.f. Beauty's stock declined more than 15%, putting the cosmetics company on pace for its worst day since March 2020. The drop came even after the company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results. E.l.f. Beauty posted adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share on $324 million in revenue, topping the 84 cents per share and revenue of $305 million expected by LSEG analysts. The company lifted its guidance, saying it expects sales to range between $1.28 billion and $1.3 billion for fiscal 2025. Analysts polled by LSEG had braced for sales guidance of $1.3 billion.
S&P Movers:
📈Akamai Tech +11%
📈Expedia Group +10%
📈Eli Lilly +6%
📉Insulet -9%
📉Intel -4%
📉Las Vegas Sands -3%
Market Data
📈 S&P 500 +0.5%
📈 NASDAQ +0.5%
📈 STOXX 600 +0.6%
📈 DAX +0.2%
📉SHANGHAI -0.3%
📈NIKKEI +0.6%
🥇 GOLD +0.2%
💛 BTC -0.5%
😱 VIX -14.4%
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⚡️Powell Believes It's Time For a Rate Cut - Jackson Hole Speech
🗣️ Fed Chairman said that the time has come to adjust monetary policy, but the pace of interest rate reduction will depend on incoming data.
ℹ️This statement means that the Fed is “cementing” the September rate cut, but leaves open the question of the size of this step. Also this comment from Powell indicates how high the current Fed interest rate is. It is at its highest level since 2001.
©This gives US authorities a lot of opportunities, if necessary, to resist an economic downturn. In addition, Powell made clear that the labor market has become at least as important to the Fed as it was a year ago, when the focus was on inflation.
📊In response to Powell's speech, US stocks jumped, Treasury yields fell, and the dollar fell
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🦠5 Stocks To Watch As Monkeypox Cases Rise Around The World
🙈 A new variant of mpox has spread rapidly in Africa, prompting the World Health Organization to declare mpox a global public health emergency last Wednesday.
🙈 Europe's disease prevention agency said on Friday more imported cases will appear in the region, a day after Sweden reported its first case of mpox linked to the new strain.
🙈 Today Thailand has confirmed Asia’s first known case of a more contagious and deadlier version of the mpox virus.
🔖Here is the list of monkeypox-related stocks to score the most in this situation.
Mpox Testing Stock
⏺Virax Biolabs Group (VRAX)
Mpox Vaccine Makers
⏺GeoVax Labs (GOVX)
⏺Applied DNA Sciences (APDN)
⏺Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)
Mpox Treatment Stock
⏺Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)
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🛢 Oil Could Fall To $68 Per Barrel in 2025
📈According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Brent could fall in price to $68 per barrel by the end of 2025 if oil demand in China remains unchanged. China is one of the largest oil importers in the world. On Wednesday, August 21, Brent oil is trading near $77.5 per barrel. If Goldman Sachs' forecast comes true, oil prices could lose about 12% from current levels.
🇨🇳Data released last week showed China's economy slowed in July, with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial production slowing and unemployment rising.
✂️Chinese refineries sharply cut crude processing rates last month in response to weak fuel demand. All this has increased concerns about oil demand from China. In addition, in the first seven months of 2024, China's oil imports amounted to 10.89 million barrels per day, down 2.4% from the same period the previous year.
🛢The slowdown in oil demand growth in China is mainly due to a shift from oil to electricity (via electric vehicles) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as fuel for road transport
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🥇 Gold Exceeded $2,560 Per Ounce For The First Time In History
⚡️On August 19, Bloomberg noted that the price of a standard 400-ounce gold bar exceeded a million dollars for the first time in history. Since the beginning of 2024, gold has risen in price by 20%.
🔊The price of gold has been rising for several days. In the last week alone, the price has increased by 3.3%. The growth is associated with the upcoming Symposium of central bankers, which will be held on August 22–24 in Jackson Hole, America. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak there. Investors are expecting that Powell may make a statement regarding the timing of the transition to lower interest rates, and these expectations are already negatively affecting the dollar, while simultaneously increasing demand for gold.
🔊The price of the precious metal is also affected by stable demand from the Chinese jewelry industry and the fact that central banks of developing countries continue to increase the share of gold in their international reserves. An unstable geopolitical situation increases the risks of investing in developing country assets and commodities, but gold is an exception to the rule as the most reliable and time-tested asset, especially against the backdrop of significantly decreased investor confidence in the dollar
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🇺🇸US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 95% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 79% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ 60% beat revenue expectations, still below the 5-year average of 68% and below the 10-year average of 64%
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Monday:
Estee Lauder, Palo Alto Networks
Tuesday:
Lowe's, Medtronic, Toll Brothers, Xpeng, Coty, Futu
Wednesday:
Target, Macy's, Zoom, Snowflake, Analog Devices, Synopsys, Urban Outfitters
Thursday:
Baidu, Peloton, Intuit, Advanve Auto Parts, Canadian Solar
Friday:
-
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 18.08.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔼S&P 500 +3.9%
🔼DOW JONES +2.9%
🔼NASDAQ +5.3%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔼STOXX 600 +2.5%
🔼DAX +3.4%
🔼FTSE 100 +1.8%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔼HANG SENG +2.0%
🔼SHANGHAI +0.6%
🔼NIKKEI 225 +8.7%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔼BRENT -0.3%
🔼GOLD +2.4%
🔼BITCOIN -1.6%
🔼VIX -27%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺The major U.S. stock indexes recorded their strongest weekly gains of 2024. The NASDAQ surged more than 5%, the S&P 500 added 4%, and the Dow rose 3%. Following the comeback this week, the S&P 500 is now just 2% away from its mid-July record high. Data this week helped assuage a jittery market. Retail sales data released Thursday came in much stronger than economists expected, while weekly jobless claims fell. Both offered evidence that recession fears, which helped spark a global sell-off earlier this month, were overblown. Inflation readings released earlier this week also bolstered hopes that a soft landing scenario was still possible.
⏺In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 2.2% after climbing 2.7% in June. It increased less than expected in July as the cost of services fell by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years amid signs of diminishing pricing power for businesses, evidence of waning inflation pressures that reinforced hopes of an interest rate cut next month. Consumer prices increased 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in June and the lowest reading since March 2021. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy from the headline number, advanced 0.2% on the month, also in line with expectations. Retail sales increased 1% in July, far surpassing an estimate from Dow Jones that forecast a 0.3% uptick. Also separately, weekly jobless claims fell for the week. The data served as a boon to investors and a broader market trying to mount a comeback from an August rout tied to concerns about a slowing economy that arose following July’s disappointing jobs report on Aug. 2.
⏺According to fresh monthly report by OPEC, for the first time this year it lowered forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. OPEC+ countries increased oil production in July and exceeded the plan taken into account of all voluntary reductions. Still Brent ended the week at low point as Chinese data showed declining imports and refinery input demand suggested that a further slowdown in the Chinese economy will weigh on total global demand.
⏺The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) known as Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ has dropped back below 15, after spiking above 65 during last week’s sell-off. The seven trading sessions it took the VIX to return to its long-term median of 17.6 is the index’s quickest ever drop from 35, a level associated with a high degree of fear. Below 20 is a normal reading suggesting a risk-on bias in markets. On the other hand, a reading above 20 is a bearish indicator, reflecting heightened levels of fear and uncertainty.
⏺Major retail companies reported results as quarterly earnings season neared an end. As of Friday, analysts were expecting S&P 500 companies overall to post a 10.9% second-quarter earnings increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet. While that figure was down modestly from expectations a couple weeks earlier, it was well above analysts’ 8.9% forecast entering earnings season in early July.
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🇳🇴Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund Made a $138 Billion Profit ln The First Half Of The Year
💵Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, reported a first-half profit of $138 billion. A year earlier, the fund's profit was $143 billion.
🔼The fund's main source of profit remains shares of technology companies. The return on shares previously acquired by the fund was 27.9%, the total return on investment for the first half of 2024 was 8.6%. As noted in the report, the development of the technology sector is supported by strong demand for new solutions in the field of artificial intelligence from major Internet and software companies, as well as semiconductor suppliers.
✂️However, the sovereign wealth fund reduced its stakes in Meta from 1.22% to 1.18% and in Dutch semiconductor maker ASML from 2.61% to 2.54%. Both companies are among the top 10 assets of the Norwegian Sovereign Fund.
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🇨🇳The People's Bank of China Announced Additional Measures To Stimulate GDP Growth
That means intensifying efforts to effectively implement the monetary and financial policies that PBOC has been following since this year.
📊 China's GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2024 slowed down and was the lowest since January-March 2023. Economic growth in April–June 2024 was 4.7% in annual terms, compared to 5.3% in January–March.
🔴 China's economy is struggling to recover from its worst period in five quarters. The latest data from China's $17 trillion economy shows an overall loss of dynamism and signs of deterioration. According to data published on June 15, investment in fixed assets in the first seven months of 2024 grew by 3.6% year-on-year - slower than expected.
🏠The downturn in China's housing market also shows no signs of turning around, with 48 million unfinished homes threatening to prolong the crisis. The head of PBOC admitted that the down payment ratio on mortgages has fallen to a record low of 15% and interest rates are also very low.
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⚡️Cisco Cuts Thousands Of Jobs As It Shifts Focus To AI And Cybersecurity
📶 The networking equipment maker said in June this year it would invest $1 billion in tech startups to develop robust AI products. The company also announced a partnership with Nvidia to develop infrastructure for AI systems.
📊Cisco Systems Inc. said Wednesday it earned $2.16 billion, or 54 cents per share, in its fiscal fourth quarter that ended July 27, down 45% from $3.96 billion, or 97 cents per share, in the same period. period a year earlier. Revenue fell 10% from $15.2 billion to $13.64 billion.
👨💻 Cisco's layoffs come just two weeks after chipmaker Intel announced it would cut about 15,000 jobs as it tries to rebuild its business to compete with more successful Nvidia and AMD. Intel's quarterly earnings report disappointed investors and its shares fell sharply after the announcement. By contrast, Cisco shares were up about 6% in after-hours trading Wednesday.
👋 In February 2024, Cisco cut about 4 thousand jobs due to the worsening situation in the technology sector.
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🔼Nvidia Market Cap Grew By $424 bln In Four Days After Huge Decline
🕯 Nvidia market value fell by $900 billion after a massive stock sell-off on August 5. The historic decline erased the company's record capitalization, but now there are signs that the worst is over. Now the rebound in Nvidia stock has lifted the market, too: It accounted for about 22% of the S&P 500's four-day gain, more than double the contribution of any other stock.
📊However, Nvidia shares are still down 14% from their record price reached on June 18th. On that day, the company took first place in terms of capitalization in the world, overtaking Microsoft. The rally in Nvidia stock caught options sellers, who had been betting on big losses for the company, by surprise. The cost of protecting against a 10% decline over 60 days was near the highest since May 2023, compared with contracts that provide for gains on a 10% rise.
🔔 A 17% rise in Nvidia shares in just a few days won't allay the investor concerns that led to the sell-off. They are still wary of the U.S. economy and the plans of technology companies that want to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence over several years without expecting a profit. However, now, amid the recession, a huge number of investors are interested in the company, and hedge funds may open a position in the shares ahead of Nvidia quarterly report, which will be published at the end of August. In reports already published Nvidia biggest customers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta have said they plan to invest billions of dollars in AI infrastructure
💲NVDA💲
Current price - $115.97
YTD Perf - up 134.18%
Wall Street Target Price - 139.79
Buy/Hold/Sell - 56/5/0
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🖥 Long Big Tech Is Still Top Trade Despite Volatility - BofA Survey
⏺ According to fresh Bank of America poll, in the first week of August international managers left stocks for bonds and cash, though long bets on the Magnificent Seven tech stocks remained the most crowded trade
⏺The survey, which canvassed 189 participants with $508 billion in assets, showed most still expect a soft landing for the global economy, but expect a significant slowdown on the yearly horizon. US recession replaced geopolitical conflict as the biggest tail risk
⏺Allocation to equities fell to a net 11% overweight — the biggest month-over-month decline since September 2022
⏺The biggest regional equity allocation was to US equities, while exposure to Japanese stocks saw the largest one-month drop since April 2016
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🇺🇸US Earnings Season Continues
According to FactSet, 91% of the S&P500 companies reported so far:
⏺ 78% beat EPS expectations, still above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%
⏺ Collectively companies are reporting earnings this season averaging 4.5% above forecasts, below the 5-year average of 8.6% and below the 10-year average of 6.8%.
🔔 Key earnings this week:
Monday:
Barrick Gold
Tuesday:
Home Depot, Paysafe
Wednesday:
UBS, Cardinal Health, Cisco
Thursday:
Alibaba, Applied Materials, Walmart, JD, John Deere
Friday:
Flowers Floods
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🌐 Weekly Market Review 11.08.24
🇺🇸 USA
🔽S&P 500 -0.1%
🔽DOW JONES -0.6%
🔽NASDAQ -0.2%
🇪🇺 EUROPE
🔼STOXX 600 +0.3%
🔼DAX +0.3%
🔽FTSE 100 -0.1%
🇭🇰🇨🇳🇯🇵 ASIA
🔼HANG SENG +0.9%
🔽SHANGHAI -1.5%
🔽NIKKEI 225 -2.5%
🛢🥇 NON-STOCK
🔼BRENT +4.7%
🔼GOLD 0%
🔼BITCOIN -3.0%
🔼VIX -13%
⭐️ KEY DRIVERS
⏺World indexes experienced the most volatile week of 2024 and ended nearly flat. On Monday world indexes suffered horrible losses on fears about a recession in the United States after the employment report for July did not live up to expectations. In addition, investors were concerned that the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates. The Stoxx Europe 600 index experienced its biggest drop since March 2022 on August 5, down 3.2%. In Asia, the fall in Japanese stock indices was the largest since Black Monday in 1987. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached 65.07 points – the most since COVID. However, the major averages mounted a comeback, with Thursday's encouraging weekly jobless claims number helping alleviate investors' concerns about the U.S. economy.
⏺On Thursday S&P 500 hit its best day since 2022 adding 2.3% on positive labor market data. The latest weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts, helping to allay some recent concerns on the strength of the labor market. First-time filings for jobless benefits came in at 233,000 last week, down 17,000 from the previous week and lower than the Dow Jones estimate for 240,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The report comes with Wall Street on edge amid signs that job growth is slowing and even signaling a potential recession on the horizon. The 10-year Treasury yield traded above 4% following the jobless claims data, a level seen before the disappointing July jobs report Friday sent markets reeling
⏺US crude oil gained more than 4% for the week as recession fears have eased and the risk of a wider war in the Middle East that could disrupt production and transportation looms over the market. The West Texas Intermediate contract for September rose 0.85% for the session to settle at $76.84 per barrel. The Brent October contract gained 0.63% to settle at $79.66 per barrel.
⏺Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida sent a strong dovish signal in the wake of historic financial market volatility in Japan by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when the markets are unstable. The yen weakened by more than 2% against the dollar, bond futures spiked higher and stocks rebounded immediately after his comments, which were the first public remarks by a BOJ board member since the bank raised rates on July 31. USD/JPY ended week flat.
⏺JPMorgan now sees US recession chance at 35% by end of this year. Its up from 25% as of the start of last month. Analytics kept the odds of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45%. JPMorgan now sees just a 30% chance of the Federal Reserve and its peers keeping interest rates high for long, compared with a 50-50 assessment as recently as two months back. JPMorgan sees the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point in September and November as US inflation pressures coming down
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🙂 Retail Investors Still Buyers Despite Harsh Market Rollercoaster
⏺Retail investors were buyers during latest market volatility, according to various research reports, although they also showed signs of caution.
⏺Vanda Research, a New York-based market research and analysis firm, found that individual investors caught up in the market storm remained net buyers of shares of companies like Nvidia, Intel and AMD.
⏺Robinhood Markets received $1 billion of new cash from retail investor clients in the first week of August. However, the firm's clients were unable to execute orders on Robinhood during overnight sessions, as Blue Ocean ATS, which executes those trades, couldn't handle the "extreme demand" from clients.
⏺A separate report published by analysts at JP Morgan said that retail investors were "aggressive net sellers" on Monday, with most of the selling pressure hitting the market in the first hour of trading.
⏺Both Vanda and JPMorgan said retail investors were resolute buyers during the market's recovery on Tuesday and Wednesday. But Vanda noted on Thursday that retail investors' interest in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF soared during the recovery, making the ETF the second-most-actively purchased security after Nvidia shares by Thursday morning.
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❗️Analysts See Risk Of A New Stock Market Crash Due To Chinese Yuan
🇨🇳Chinese yuan may become the next currency after the Japanese yen, the strengthening of which will lead to the collapse of world markets. Such a risk may materialize if traders begin to massively curtail transactions using the carry trade strategy with the Chinese currency.
💸This strategy was actively used in Japan, where there was an ultra-loose monetary policy for a long time. But in anticipation of a rate hike, traders were forced to curtail such transactions with the Japanese yen in July. The return of borrowed money to Japan has put pressure on markets around the world.
🔴 Citibank analysts also see potential risks of the yuan strengthening. Experts pointed out that the yuan, even more than the Japanese yen, has become used in carry trade strategies: chinese exporters hold large sums in dollars and companies are reluctant to convert those funds due to higher rates in the US. However, exporters may soon do so as the Fed prepares to cut rates — which could cause big moves in markets, the expert said.
👀 There is also the opposite opinion. Thus, Mizuho Bank sees yen as a very liquid global currency, while exchange rate of the yuan still depends on the Chinese authorities. Japan and China also have different economic problems. While the yen's weakness was due to low interest rates in Japan, the yuan's weakness was mainly due to structural economic factors and serious geopolitical threats. China's economy has not fully recovered since the country emerged from nearly three years of COVID-19 restrictions, so it is more likely that the People's Bank of China will still need to cut rates.
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