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📈 All the latest updates on the Stock Market: signals, news, and everything that might move the narrative — all in one place. 😉 We keep an eye on the price; you can just watch us do it. Buy Ads: @JamesCookTg
⚡️AI Market Could Reach Almost $1 Trillion In Three Years
⏺Generative AI is a major driver of the current wave of change, and experts estimate that the market for AI products and services could reach between $780 billion and $990 billion by 2027.
⏺The overall AI-related hardware and software market is expected to grow 40% to 55% annually for at least the next three years. Fluctuations in supply and demand will create volatility along the way, but the long-term, sustainable trajectory looks set to continue.
⏺The rapid development of AI will continue to transform the technology sector. That being said, larger models will continue to push boundaries, while smaller models will create new, more focused capabilities in specific verticals and domains.
⏺Experts believe AI workload demands will also drive innovation in storage, compute, memory and data centers. And as the market becomes more competitive and complex, companies will need to adapt quickly to capture their share of the potential trillion-dollar market.
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🏘 US Home Price Growth Slowed In July Amid High Mortgage Rates
⏺US home price growth slowed in July as high mortgage rates kept potential buyers away and supply increased. The national home price index rose 5% from a year earlier, down from June's 5.5% rise, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. After seasonal adjustment, prices in July rose 0.2% from the previous month, reaching a record for the 14th time in a row.
⏺The July index covers the three-month period beginning in May, when 30-year mortgage rates peaked at 7.22%. Borrowing costs have fallen since then, but housing affordability remains an issue. At the same time, the supply of homes on the market has increased, with active listings up 14% in July compared to last year.
⏺The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this month, hinting at further cuts that could lower mortgage rates and revive the housing market. The likelihood of further rate cuts is high, and this could lead to an acceleration in home prices towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year, when purchasing power improves.
⏺In July, the price index for the 20 largest U.S. cities rose 5.9% from a year earlier, down from June's 6.5% rise. New York again saw the largest increase at 8.8%, followed by Las Vegas and Los Angeles with increases of 8.2% and 7.2%, respectively.
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⚡️Eurozone PMI Fall Could Accelerate ECB Rate Cuts
⏺An unexpected fall in the eurozone private sector PMI gave ECB a reason to accelerate interest rate cuts. On Monday, the current situation pushed markets to forecast a rate cut of 43 basis points by the end of the year, instead of the previously expected 38 basis points. At the same time, the probability of another rate cut in October is estimated at 40%.
⏺Following the release of business activity data from S&P Global, a key segment of the German yield curve normalized and the euro weakened. Today's PMI data adds to concerns about growth and increases the likelihood of another contraction in October. Eurozone economic performance continues to deteriorate, especially in Germany. Germany's business activity index fell to 48.9 in September, which is below the predicted 50.5.
⏺Some ECB policymakers have warned that rates that are too high could harm the economy. Eurozone inflation data for September and Ifo's monthly survey on the German economy will be important for decision-making at the next ECB meeting. Speculation about faster easing has also intensified due to the US Federal Reserve's move to cut rates despite the US economy continuing to expand.
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☄️Shares of European Automakers Collapse After News From Mercedes
🔽Mercedes shares fell more than 8% on Friday after the company became the latest automaker to cut its forecasts for this year as sluggish demand in China and trade disputes weigh on the sector.
©The company said it now expects group earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to be "significantly below" the previous year's level and adjusted margin on sales to be between 7% and 8%, down from its previous forecast of 10-11 %.
➡️The revision to Mercedes' figures was driven by further deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, primarily due to lower consumption levels in China and a prolonged downturn in the country's real estate sector, the company said in a statement.
💸This impacted overall sales in China, including sales in the Top-End segment. Overall, sales mix in the second half of 2024 is expected to remain unchanged from the first half, and therefore be weaker than originally expected.
📉Fellow German automaker BMW also posted significant losses last week after cutting its 2024 profit forecast due to slumping sales in China and problems with a braking system supplied by Continental.
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☄️Qualcomm Shows Interest In Buying Intel
⏺Chip designer Qualcomm wants to buy electronics and computer components maker Intel. Negotiations on the deal, which took place in recent days, were confidential. However, Qualcomm has not yet made an official offer to Intel.
⏺The deal with Intel, whose market value is about $90 billion, is still far from certain. Even if Intel agrees to it, the deal may come under scrutiny from antitrust authorities. To close the deal, Qualcomm may plan to sell Intel assets or parts to other buyers.
⏺The acquisition could occur in what could be one of the largest and most significant technology deals ever. The deal will allow Qualcomm to complement its mobile phone chip business with chips from Intel, which are widely used in personal computers and servers.
⏺In the second quarter, Intel reported a loss of $1.6 billion and gave guidance for the third quarter below market expectations. The corporation also announced its intention to cut 15% of its staff and suspend dividend payments. The report was one of the worst in Intel's 56-year history as the company struggles to regain its footing in an industry it once dominated. Also in the second quarter, Intel completely divested itself of its stake in British chip designer Arm Holdings.
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🥇 Copper Prices Surge To Two-Month High
📈On Friday, September 20, copper prices jumped to a two-month high amid a reversal in US monetary policy.
⏺Base metal prices continued their rise that began earlier this week. Initially, market participants were looking forward to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which ended on September 18. As a result, the American regulator for the first time in 4 years reduced the interest rate by 50 bp, to the range of 4.75-5%. This event strengthened investors' hopes for a "soft landing" in the US economy.
⏺In China, metals market conditions are also showing signs of improvement. This week, premiums on imported copper rose to their highest levels since early 2024, while copper inventories fell. However, risks regarding further growth in metal prices still remain due to uncertainty in the US presidential elections, which will be held in November this year.
⏺Copper rose almost 0.7% to $9,580 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange. By the end of the week, the metal may increase in price by almost 3%. The cost of aluminum, zinc and nickel is also rising.
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💥Record Gold Price Gives Gold Mining Companies A Second Chance
🥇 For gold mining companies, lower interest rates and rising prices mean not only increased profits, but also a new chance to attract investors. Hundreds of executives gathered this week at the Denver Gold Forum at the Broadmoor Hotel in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains to discuss deals, mine developments and soaring gold prices.
🔥The optimistic mood stands in stark contrast to the previous year, when manufacturers struggled with high operating costs and low prices. In 2023, the forum was so quiet that analysts at Royal Bank of Canada called it "you could hear a pin drop."
📈Since early January, gold prices have risen 25% amid rising demand in emerging economies and a worsening outlook for the US economy. Gold hit a record high of $2,600 an ounce on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points.
🔼This growth has improved prospects for industry leaders such as Newmont Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp., which could generate billions of dollars in additional revenue. Investments in replacing aging mines and acquisitions have become more likely.
💲NEM💲
Current price - $53.49
YTD Perf - up 29.18%
Wall Street Target Price - 60.74
Buy/Hold/Sell - 15/9/0
💲GOLD💲
Current price - $20.30
YTD Perf - up 12.19%
Wall Street Target Price - 23.34
Buy/Hold/Sell - 17/5/0
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🇮🇳India Overtakes China In Key MSCI Stock Index For The First Time In History
👑India overtook China for the first time in MSCI's key equity index, helped by robust economic growth and strong investment flows. India's weight in the MSCI Investable Market Indexes (covering all large-, mid- and small-cap investment securities) rose to 2.35%, while China's weight stood at 2.24%, according to a note from Morgan Stanley.
📈India's nominal gross domestic product growth rate is in the 10% range, more than three times China's economic growth and creating deep divergence in income growth, experts say.
➡️Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley forecast that India would overtake China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as India's stock market rally just crossed the midpoint.
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⚡️US Retail Sales Rose Unexpectedly In August
📈US retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, despite lower auto dealership revenue, thanks to increased online shopping. This indicates the stability of the US economy in the third quarter
🔼Retail sales rose 0.1% in August, following a revised 1.1% rise in July. Economists had forecast a decline of 0.2% after 1% in July. Year-on-year sales grew 2.1%. Online sales increased 1.4% in August after declining 0.4% in July. Sales at gas stations fell 1.2%, reflecting lower gasoline prices.
✔️Retail sales in July were also higher than expected, according to a US Commerce Department report. Together with the falling unemployment rate, these data contradict market expectations of a 50 bps interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. on Wednesday.
📊The US economy grew at a rate of 3% in the second quarter. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August. Financial markets estimate the likelihood of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut at 67%, and a 25 basis point rate cut at 33%.
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⚡️Apple Shares Fall 3% Amid Weak iPhone 16 Pre-orders
🔽Apple shares are down 3% after one analyst warned that demand for the company's new iPhone 16 Pro model was lower than expected.
🗣️TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said pre-orders for the anticipated new iPhone 16, which began on September 13, totaled 37 million units, which is almost 13% lower than the release of the iPhone 15 last year. The expert attributes this drop to low interest in the iPhone 16 Pro model among users.
ℹ️One of the key factors behind the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series is that the main selling point - Apple Intelligence - is not available at launch alongside the release of the iPhone 16
❗️Weak demand for the iPhone 16 is not a good sign, especially with the holiday shopping season fast approaching. The risk of a significant decline in shares has increased significantly
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⚡️Investors Are Pouring Into Coca-Cola And Colgate Due To Recession Fears
📌Investors are snapping up shares of U.S. consumer staples companies such as Coca-Cola and Colgate as they hunt for defensive assets amid concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy.
📊The sector, which also includes other big names such as Kraft Heinz, Procter & Gamble and Walmart, has outperformed the blue-chip S&P 500 index in six of the last eight weeks. Last week, the S&P 500 consumer staples index posted its best performance against the blue-chip index since March 2020, lifting it to its highest level ever, although it has retreated slightly in recent days.
ℹ️The sector's results mark an extension of this year's stock market rally driven by mega-cap tech groups. It comes as cracks begin to appear in the U.S. labor market, sparking disagreement over how aggressively the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates and fears that the world's largest economy could soon fall into recession
⚙️Consumer staples tend to lag the market during a bull run, but catch up when growth begins to slow. The sector outperformed during the 2022 sell-off but lagged the market as a downward trend began in the second half of 2023
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⚡️Boeing Risks Getting Junk Credit Rating Due To Workers' Strike
⏺Boeing's unsecured debt credit rating has been Baa3 by Moody's Ratings since April. Moody's said Friday it will "assess the duration of the strike and its impact on cash flow, as well as potential equity raisings that Boeing may undertake to improve its liquidity."
⏺Boeing is fighting to maintain its investment grade rating, a task now complicated by a workers' strike. The company has more than $45 billion in debt and is bleeding money after being forced to cut production following a disaster in January.
⏺If the company's rating is downgraded to junk, it will increase Boeing's borrowing costs. The company is also losing money on some defense contracts, and its space business has been plagued by delays and cost overruns. There are other financial consequences of a downgrade, such as a smaller pool of investors willing to buy the company's debt.
⏺CFO Brian West told analysts at Morgan Stanley conference on Friday that the company will consider the necessary steps to strengthen its balance sheet. The aircraft maker is assessing its capital structure to ensure it can meet its upcoming debt payment over the next 18 months, he said.
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✔️China Approves Plan To Increase Retirement Age For The First Time Since 1978
💸China will raise the retirement age for the first time since 1978, a move that will likely slow the country's workforce decline but anger workers already struggling with a slowing economy.
🗓According to the approved plan, the retirement age for men will increase from 60 to 63 years, and for women - from 50 and 55 to 55 and 58 years, respectively. The increase will occur gradually over 15 years, starting January 1, 2025.
©“Governments at all levels should actively respond to the aging population and encourage and support workers' employment and entrepreneurship,” said the decision of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.
💬The country's top legislature also called on officials to protect workers' rights and improve care for the elderly, and authorized the State Council, China's cabinet, to adjust measures if necessary.
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☄️GameStop Shares Plunge 12% Amid Weak Revenue
📊The owner of the chain of video game and gaming electronics stores GameStop recorded a net profit in the second fiscal quarter ended September 10, but revenue fell by almost a third and was below market forecasts.
ℹ️Unexpectedly for many, the company managed to record a net profit of $14.8 million, or 4 cents per share, against a loss of $2.8 million, or 1 cent per share, a year earlier. Revenue in the reporting period fell by 31% YoY to $798 million, which fell short of market forecasts. As a result, GameStop shares fell 12% during yesterday's session.
🟢In June, GameStop said it raised $2.14 billion in a stock sale, noting that it may use the proceeds for mergers and acquisitions. The company did not hold a conference call in conjunction with its earnings report.
📈GameStop shares, which were lifted by the return of influential trader Keith Gill, also known as Roaring Kitty, to social media earlier this year, are up 33.8% in 2024 through Tuesday. The S&P 500 index SPX is up 15.2% this year.
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☄️ Analysts Propose Excluding Boeing From Dow Jones Index
✈️ Boeing, one of 30 companies that represent the American economy in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, may no longer qualify. Recent security incidents and investigations have raised doubts about the company's future.
✂️Rating agencies have cut Boeing's credit rating to the low end of "investment grade" and are expected to further decline to "junk" levels.
📊Boeing has lost more than 60% of its stock price since the second 737 Max crash in 2019. Companies with better financial health, such as Lockheed Martin and GE Aerospace, could replace Boeing in the index.
ℹ️Boeing remains the largest U.S. exporter, supporting 1.6 million jobs. The question is not its survival, but whether Boeing remains one of the key indicators of the "health" of the American economy.
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📈Chinese Market Rose To A 4-Month High On Economic Support Measures
🔴Chinese market rose sharply after the head of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) Pan Gongsheng announced new stimulus measures aimed at improving the economic situation as well as the investment climate in the country.
⏺During a press conference following PBOC meeting on September 24, he announced, in particular, a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 50 bps. This will allow liquidity to flow into the market in the amount of 1 trillion yuan ($142.15 billion). The head of the Chinese Central Bank made it clear that the base rate (LPR) could also be lowered by 0.2–0.25 percentage points.
⏺This is a clear attempt to cope with the slowdown in economic growth, especially given the weak performance in areas such as manufacturing and consumer spending. Given low inflation pressures and fiscal constraints, more gradual steps of this nature can be expected in an attempt to stabilize the situation without over-committing.
⏺While market participants said the policy measures were better than expected, many still question whether they will help revive consumer demand enough to halt the country's longest deflationary period since 1999. It will likely take more than just monetary policy to help the economy get back on its feet and effectively address the housing downturn.
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🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 23.09.2024
⏺Tesla stock is on the rise as investors await the company’s long-anticipated robotaxi debut and its third quarter sales figures. Shares of the Elon Musk-helmed electric vehicle company jumped over 4% on Monday. Tesla is set to finally unveil its driverless cabs on Oct. 10 after months of delays. Also in early October, the company will announce its deliveries for the third quarter. Wall Street analysts forecast sales to rise 6% from last year to about 460,000 EVs.
💲TSLA💲
Current price - $250.00
YTD Perf - up 0.61%
Wall Street Target Price - 218.00
Buy/Hold/Sell - 24/22/12
⏺Boeing shares jumped 2% on Monday after The Seattle Times reported the plane manufacturer raised its contract offer to the machinists union in order to put an end to the strike. According to the publication, the new offer, delivered this morning, would increase wages by 30% over four years, up from a prior proposal of 25%. Boeing also offered to restore an annual bonus an item that had been removed from the prior contract offering. Boeing shares had been hovering around 52-week lows recently after the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) went on strike demanding higher salary increases.
💲BA💲
Current price - $156.30
YTD Perf - down 40.04%
Wall Street Target Price - 209.33
Buy/Hold/Sell - 17/8/4
⏺Trump Media & Technology Group stock dropped another 6% on Monday to touch another low after the company’s six-month lock-up period expired last week. Shares are down roughly 15% since last Thursday when former President Donald Trump and other stakeholders were legally allowed to sell their stock for the first time since the company went public earlier this year. Despite recent reassurances from Trump that he wouldn't sell any of his stake, shares of the social media company have declined to their lowest level since their March debut. The stock has been volatile, often moving in tandem with any development related to the Republican presidential candidate.
💲DJT💲
Current price - $12.15
YTD Perf - down 30.57%
Wall Street Target Price - n/a
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🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 23.09
⏺Japan - Markets Closed
⏺US, Germany, Eurozone, UK Composite PMI
Tuesday 24.09
⏺Japan PMI
⏺US Consumer Confidence
Wednesday 25.09
⏺US New Home Sales
Thursday 26.09
⏺US Initial Jobless Claims
⏺US Durable Goods Orders
⏺Jerome Powell Speech
Friday 27.09
⏺Eurozone Consumer Confidence
⏺Eurozone Inflation
⏺US PCE Index
⏺US Consumer Confidence
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⚡️Boeing Sends Thousands Of Employees On Unpaid Leave
⚠️Thousands of Boeing employees are taking leave as the strike continues. Thus, production of the American company's best-selling aircraft, the 737 MAX, has been suspended. Striking workers at the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Industries were paid their final pay this week as negotiations between Boeing and its largest union stalled.
📣With no indication that Boeing and union negotiators would soon return to the negotiating table, both sides took preliminary steps to prepare for a long strike. About 33,000 workers in the northwest region of the United States rejected a preliminary agreement to increase wages by 25% over four years, demanding 40%.
⚠️The company will place a significant number of US employees who are not participating in the strike on temporary layoff. They will be given one week of leave every four weeks on a rolling basis.
The massive layoffs suggest Ortberg is preparing the company for a long strike that could be difficult to end given the anger of rank-and-file workers demanding a 40% wage increase and the reinstatement of performance bonuses.
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🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 20.09.2024
⏺FedEx shares had their worst day in about two years after earnings came in lower than Wall Street expected. Shares of the transportation stock tumbled more than 15% in Friday’s session. Friday’s slide came after FedEx reported first-quarter earnings of $3.60 per share, excluding items, on $21.58 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG forecasted $4.76 a share and $21.93 billion. Shares are now up just over 2% for 2024, notably underperforming the broader market.
💲FDX💲
Current price - $254.64
YTD Perf - up 0.66%
Wall Street Target Price - 323.31
Buy/Hold/Sell - 20/9/1
⏺Nike shares jumped 5.8% after company announced that its CEO, John Donahoe, is stepping down and company veteran Elliott Hill is coming out of retirement to take the helm of the sneaker giant. Donahoe, who has been Nike’s CEO since January 2020, will retire from his position on Oct. 13. Hill is slated to take over on the following day. Donahoe will stay on as an advisor through the end of January.
💲NKE💲
Current price - $86.52
YTD Perf - down 20.31%
Wall Street Target Price - 91.47
Buy/Hold/Sell - 19/18/2
⏺Constellation Energy added more than 22% after it published plans to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant and will sell the power to Microsoft, demonstrating the immense energy needs of the tech sector as they build out data centers to support artificial intelligence. Constellation expects the Unit 1 reactor at Three Mile Island near Middletown, Pennsylvania, to come back online in 2028, subject to approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the company announced Friday. Constellation also plans to apply to extend the plant’s operations to at least 2054.
💲CEG💲
Current price - $254.98
YTD Perf - up 118.14%
Wall Street Target Price - 221.85
Buy/Hold/Sell - 12/6/0
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🕯Most Volatile Stocks / 19.09.2024
⏺Shares of Skechers USA dropped nearly 9% after the sneaker manufacturer revealed that its business in China was facing "pretty severe consumer discretionary pressures" that are "a bit worse" than the company had anticipated. The management's comments were made during a presentation at the Wells Fargo Consumer Conference and reported by StreetAccount. Year to date, Skechers shares are down about 1%
💲SKX💲
Current price - $61.56
YTD Perf - down 1.19%
Wall Street Target Price - 81.36
Buy/Hold/Sell - 17/1/0
⏺Shares of Progyny fell 30% on Thursday after the company announced that it is losing an important client. Progyny, which works with employers to provide fertility services, did not disclose the name of the client in its statement, which was made after the market closed on Wednesday. "The client, which accounted for approximately 670,000 members as of June 30, 2024, represented 12% and 13% of the company’s revenue for the six-month period ending June 30, 2024," wrote CEO Peter Anevski in the document. The market believes that the client is Amazon
💲PGNY💲
Current price - $16.46
YTD Perf - down 55.73%
Wall Street Target Price - 26.13
Buy/Hold/Sell - 6/5/0
⏺Darden Restaurants popped 7% after the restaurant operator announced its fiscal- first-quarter earnings and a partnership with Uber. The restaurant chain earned $1.75 per share for the quarter ended Aug. 25, missing analysts' consensus forecast of $1.84. However, the company maintained its full-year outlook and noted improving sales trends. It also said it has entered into an exclusive multiyear delivery partnership with Uber, set to begin with Olive Garden in late 2024.
💲DRI💲
Current price - $172.27
YTD Perf - up 4.85%
Wall Street Target Price - 181.04
Buy/Hold/Sell - 19/11/1
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⚡️Indices Have Stabilized After The Fed Cut The Rate By Half A Point
🕯Key US stock indexes were little changed after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. This significant decline has raised questions about the economy's potential weakness in the future.
📊The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 375 points but then pared that gain, ending up 0.21%. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.06%. Initially, both indexes, including the 30-share Dow, reached new all-time highs after the Fed's decision was announced.
ℹ️The Fed cut rates to a range of 4.75%-5% from 5.25%-5.5%. The scale of the decline matched traders' expectations, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. This is the first rate cut in four years, as inflation levels decline from two years ago.
🟢FOMC has increased confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2 percent and believes that the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced. Optimism cooled slightly after Powell said a larger rate cut did not mean a continuation of aggressive policy, noting that the central bank would "tread carefully."
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🇩🇪Investors' Confidence In German Economy Plummets After A Wave Of Bad News
📉In September, the index of investor confidence (ZEW) in the German economy fell to its lowest level since October 2023 and amounted to 3.6 points. At the same time, in August ZEW was at 19.2 points. While the decline in economic expectations in the eurozone indicates an overall increase in pessimistic sentiment, the decline in expectations for the German economy is significantly higher
⚠️The outlook for Europe's largest economy worsened after output contracted unexpectedly in the second quarter of 2024 amid weak industrial performance. In addition, Germany's economic outlook has been hit by a spate of bad news over the past few weeks.
ℹ️Thus, the large German automaker Volkswagen plans to announce the closure of 2-3 factories in the country and lay off up to 15,000 employees. Another car maker BMW cut its profit forecast for 2024 due to the recall of 1.5 million cars due to identified faults in the brake system. And the American Intel postponed the construction of a chip production plant in Germany for about 2 years.
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⚡️Indian Companies Gear Up For Major IPOs Amid Economic Recovery
🇮🇳Indian companies are testing investor interest in large initial public offerings (IPOs) following recent successful debuts. Three IPOs are in the pipeline, each valued at more than $1 billion, including SoftBank-backed food delivery platform Swiggy Ltd. and Indian units of LG Electronics Inc. and Hyundai Motor Co.
⭐️The IPO boom comes amid India's rapid economic growth, which stands out against the backdrop of challenges in countries such as China. Indian listings have already raised $8.6 billion this year, surpassing the previous two years. Local and foreign investors are actively investing in the Indian stock market.
📊Shares of companies that have entered the Indian market this year posted an average first-day gain of 30%, higher than the global average of 22%. Recent IPOs like Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd., Ola Electric Mobility Ltd. and Brainbees Solutions Ltd., also showed significant progress.
⚠️Most of India's 240 offerings this year have raised less than $100 million, prompting increased regulatory scrutiny of possible price manipulation at smaller IPOs.
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🗓 Coming Up Next Week
Monday 16.09
⏺Japan, China - Markets Closed
⏺NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tuesday 17.09
⏺China - Markets Closed
⏺US Retail Sales
⏺US Industrial Production
Wednesday 18.09
⏺UK, Eurozone CPI
⏺US Housing Starts
⏺FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday 19.09
⏺Bank of England Rate Decision
⏺US Existing Home Sales
Friday 20.09
⏺Japan CPI
⏺China LPR Rate
⏺Bank of Japan Rate Decision
⏺Eurozone Consumer Confidence
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🛢 Sudden Rally Sends Oil To Weekly Gains
📈Oil prices rose on Friday, extending their rally and putting crude oil on track for a weekly gain as production disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico followed Hurricane Francine, which forced the evacuation of production platforms. Oil broke a series of weekly declines, despite Brent falling below $70 a barrel for the first time since late 2021 on Tuesday.
💵A weaker US dollar also helped support oil prices. The currency fell to a one-week low on Friday, making dollar-denominated goods cheaper for holders of other currencies.
🔗Oil producers assessed damage and conducted safety checks on Thursday as they prepared to resume operations in the US Gulf of Mexico. Official data showed that nearly 42% of the region's oil production had been shut down as of Thursday. UBS analysts forecast that production in the region will fall by 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) in September compared to the previous month.
🔽OPEC and IEA this week lowered their forecasts for demand growth, citing economic difficulties in China, the world's largest oil importer. In the United States, oil inventories also rose across the board last week as crude oil imports increased and exports fell
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🕯 Most Volatile Stocks / 13.09.2024
🔽Boeing stock lost 4% after factory workers went on strike at midnight Friday. Boeing announced a deal on Sept. 8 with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, representing 33,000 of its West Coast employees. Although IAM describes the proposal as “the best contract negotiated in history,” Boeing workers in Seattle and Oregon voted 94.6% against the agreement and 96% in favor of a strike, far more than the two-thirds vote needed for a work stoppage, which will disrupt the production of most aircraft, including the 737 Max.
🔽Adobe lost 9% on weak guidance despite its Q3 revenue beat. For the quarter ended Aug. 30 the software company earned $4.65 a share, topping the $4.53 expected by analysts. Quarterly revenue came in at $5.41 billion, an 11% increase from a year earlier and surpassing the $5.37 billion forecast by analysts. But Adobe's Q4 revenue guidance came in below analysts' expectations. The company projected earnings per share ranging from $4.63 to $4.68 on revenue between $5.5 billion and $5.55 billion. Analysts had forecast $4.67 of earnings on $5.61 billion in revenue.
🔼Shares of the furniture retailer RH surged more than 25% Friday, building on momentum from Thursday when the company reported revenue and earnings that topped estimates. RH said demand — defined by the company as the value of orders placed — jumped 7% in the second quarter and said that may double in the third quarter. Investors are buying into the narrative that RH's latest product assortment is driving the growth. After all, the company is gaining sales despite an environment of high interest rates and a challenging housing market.
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🏘 Mortgage Rates Fall To Lowest Level Since February 2023
📉The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell this week as potential homebuyers and investors turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. At 6.2%, the rate dropped slightly compared to 6.35% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. It’s down from 7.18% a year ago and sits at the lowest level since February 2023.
ℹ️Mortgage rates have slid steadily in recent months, but the relief for buyers has done little to boost home sales nationwide. The Pending Homes Sales Index, a measure of housing contracts, slipped in July to 70.2, the lowest reading since the National Association of Realtors began tracking it more than two decades ago. A year ago, the index stood at 76.7.
🔔Some buyers may be waiting in hopes that mortgage rates will fall further if the Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rates as expected next week. Signs of a slowing job market and cooling inflation in August have strengthened the case for the central bank to ease rates for the first time in more than four years.
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⚡️Core US Inflation Has Risen, Reducing The Likelihood Of A Large-scale Fed Rate Cut
⏺The so-called core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% from July, the highest in four months, and up 3.2% year on year, bureau data showed labor statistics on Wednesday.
⏺Overall, inflation in the US in August was 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.5% on an annual basis. August marked the fifth month in a row that the annual rate declined due to lower gasoline prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said housing was the "major factor" in overall growth.
⏺While Wednesday's data won't keep the Fed from cutting interest rates next week, it does reduce the likelihood of a sharp rate cut. However, Fed officials have previously signaled that they are largely focused on the labor market, which will likely determine political discussions and decisions in the coming months. They will also have more data to consider ahead of their meetings in November and December.
⏺Traders have reduced the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates by half a point next week to almost zero. Treasury yields rose, S&P 500 futures fell slightly and the dollar trimmed its losses following the data.
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