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The current Bitcoin market cycle (2023-25) is showing a much more stable price structure compared to previous cycles. Instead of wild swings, we're seeing a methodical "stair-stepping" pattern where upward rallies are followed by periods of price consolidation. This reduced volatility is further reflected in shallower price drawdowns during corrections. Both patterns suggest a more mature market with patient investors who are less prone to panic selling, creating a more controlled and sustainable upward trajectory compared to the boom-bust cycles of the past.
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#BTC dropped finally after the long consolidation and gave a Daily candle closing with a strong closure. Price now, having a retest and might drop further at $90,000 support.
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Here's the Analysis of #TRB :
#TRB moving a good tradable range of key support and resistance area of $25.15 - $27.00 and Major Resistance area of $43.11 - $44.39. Price action is not clear as price just rejected the major resistance and not clear enough. Better look out for further opportunity.
#BITCOIN gave a weekly closing with a long legged Doji Candlestick, which is again an indecision. Once again, its a difficult to predict and need to see some confirmation. Expecting a drop 1st.
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Looking at on-chain data reveals how Bitcoin investors behave during market stress periods. In this current cycle, investors are showing remarkable restraint - they're not panic selling during price drops like they used to. The only significant selling event was during the yen-carry unwinding on August 5th. This is notably different from previous cycles, where 2015-2018 had multiple panic selling events, and 2019-2022 was even more volatile with major sell-offs during the PlusToken collapse, COVID-19 crash, and China's mining ban. This calmer behavior suggests today's Bitcoin investors are more patient and less likely to sell during price dips, indicating a more mature market with longer-term focused participants.
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#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on WEEKLY TF, going though an another retest of the support on weekly and again rejecting. The more an more price testing the support, the more its going to building the chances of dropping lower for stoploss hunting.
The introduction of the US Spot ETF Bitcoin instruments has also allowed new access for institutional investors, providing regulated exposure to Bitcoin. This has enabled the flow of latent institutional capital, with the ETFs taking in over $40B in net inflows, and breaching $120B in combined AUM in the 12-months since launch.
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#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Daily TF, moved from one consolidation range to another consolidation range, nothing much movement happen over past 2 weeks and might gonna see some sort back to liquidity hunts.
Market Pumps on Bybit Solvency Update
Bybit confirms they’re fully solvent despite the hack loss and can cover it without affecting client assets. All funds remain 1:1 backed, according to https://x.com/benbybit/status/1892969284587966869. This reassurance has driven a market rally, easing concerns about potential fallout.
BYBIT OFFICIAL STATEMENT
> Our ETH multisig cold wallet made a transfer to our warm wallet about one hour ago. It appears that this specific transaction was compromised: all the signers saw a masked UI showing the correct address and a URL from safe, but the actual signing message changed the smart contract logic of our ETH cold wallet. As a result, the hacker gained control of this particular cold wallet and transferred all ETH to an unidentified address.
> Please rest assured that all other cold wallets remain secure, and withdrawals are operating normally. We will keep everyone updated as this situation develops. If any team can assist in tracking the stolen funds, we would greatly appreciate your help.
Important Reminder: This incident highlights the importance of verifying every transaction and signing message, even on trusted platforms. Bybit is actively investigating and working with partners to secure remaining assets and recover stolen funds. Stay tuned for further updates.
#BNX has a very strong breakout and with a previous high breaking too. Now you can look for the retest to happen and buy can be taken anticipating the new highs can formed.
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Here's the Analysis of #MOVE :
#MOVE flipped below the strong support zone, turning it into the strong resistance at $0.59 - $0.62. There's not clear support in the nearby till listing price. Only shorting looks good or wait for the price to flip over strong resistance.
#JUP dropped to the major support zone and as mentioned, and with a initial reaction taking it to the upside around 9%. The move is not enough and market can reverse anytime soon. Better to go breakeven and anticipate the short if closed below.
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Here's the Analysis of #BNX :
#BNX had a more than 5x pump in past days from the major support zone and flipped above the resistance taking it as support around $0.81 - $0.90. Price forming a small triangle formation and breakout is still pending. Take the setup after the strong candle closure.
#GOLD UPDATE :
#GOLD slowly heading towards the $3000 mark, price printed the new #ATH yesterdays, slightly over the previous high and dropping. Anticipation is still bullish but in case of retracement, $2900 is the sweet spot.
Over a few Hours, Crypto market took off around $880M+ in past 24H. In which major Wipeout happened in past 12H.
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The current Bitcoin bull market shows a distinctly different volatility pattern compared to previous cycles. Bitcoin's realized volatility on a 3-month rolling basis has remained historically low, consistently staying below 50%. This stands in sharp contrast to the previous two bull markets, where volatility regularly spiked between 80% and 100%. This reduced volatility suggests a more stable and mature market, likely influenced by increased institutional participation and the evolution of Bitcoin's investor base toward more long-term holders with higher price tolerance.
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#US30 UPDATE :
#US30 played well and more than what we expected. Price reached the drawn support area around 2.8% as mentioned and reacting. Now we can see some pullback and a new lower low, if market didn't came up with any news.
Here's the Analysis of #FET :
#FET continuously dropping hard and reached the major support zone of $$0.71 - $0.75. price forming a triangle pattern over the major support in which breakout is still pending. Eyes on break and candle close take the setup ,
#JTO dropped towards the support zone and had a very drastic pump towards the previous high ended up being rejected. Price closed below the channel again and dropping.
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Here's the Analysis of #SAND :
#SAND floating below the resistance area and recently dropped hard with a retest. Buying moving very slowly up and again price might reject from there. Overall, price broke the triangle pattern , which might be the additional confluence can go bearish.
#BNX had a very good push from the resistance becomes the support and made a high of $1.33, which is 22% in profits and now dropping lower due to news events hacks.
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Here's the Analysis of #BAT :
#BAT dropping strongly from the major resistance area (grey box) around $0.34 - $0.35 and moving within the falling wedge pattern and goes below the another support turning resistance $0.18 - $0.20. Price can further drop lower towards the final support area $$0.13 - $0.15.
Bybit Official Update https://x.com/benbybit/status/1892965964909863315
- Hot wallet, warm wallet, and all other cold wallets remain secure.
- Only the ETH cold wallet was compromised.
- All withdrawals are functioning normally.
Bybit is actively investigating the incident and working with partners to secure remaining assets and recover stolen funds. Stay tuned for further updates.
Bitcoin's market environment keeps evolving with new regulations and products like ETFs. Looking at small investors (holding <10 BTC), we see a major change in behavior. While they used to buy heavily at market peaks in 2013 and 2017, they're now doing the opposite - buying during dips and selling during rallies. This suggests retail investors have become more sophisticated in their trading approach.
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#BTC slowing rising as per the expectation and at a resistance area again which could reject it down. Overall, we're expecting the price to reach out the $100,000 mark as reject it from there.
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Search interest data from Google Analytics provides additional evidence that retail interest in Bitcoin remains relatively subdued in the current cycle. Despite Bitcoin reaching higher prices and having more positive developments like ETF approvals, search volume hasn't matched the peak levels seen during the 2021 bull market. This aligns with our previous findings about lower retail participation and suggests that current market activity is being driven more by institutional rather than retail investors who typically contribute to higher search volumes during periods of widespread public interest.
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#BTC slowly climbing up after the H4 structure shift, and Daily trying to flip bullish. Still liquidity run yet to happen and might touch the $100,000 mark and a reaction. Nothing much to do need to see the some strong breaks.
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What Is a Wallet Score?
A Bayesian statistical modeling system that assigns daily scores to wallet addresses based on user activity across blockchain ecosystems, where higher wallet scores demonstrate a statistical relationship with increased market capitalization.
Core Technology & Methodology
Wallet Scores measure blockchain addresses across five dimensions: user activity, developer behavior, financial metrics, adoption, and community strength. Each category is assigned a specific weight based on its importance to a project’s overall health. The system uses 15 metrics within these categories, assigning points when addresses reach specific activity thresholds.
The scoring system uses Bayesian modeling to identify which behaviors drive ecosystem value. Rather than tracking total transactions or USD volume, it analyzes transaction patterns to measure meaningful engagement. The data shows that addresses creating value through diverse activities (staking, trading, governance) contribute more to ecosystem growth than those with high volume in a single activity type.
Scores are dynamically updated to reflect real-time changes in network activity, development progress, and market conditions. By combining these critical metrics into a transparent and data-driven model, Wallet Scores provide a clear, accurate snapshot of a project’s overall performance and health.
Currently, the system scores over 150 million addresses daily across 12 blockchain networks. By focusing on transaction counts rather than token prices or USD values, the scores remain consistent through market cycles.
Applications and Impact
Blockchain networks use Wallet Scores to:
- Identify and attract high-value users
- Optimize token distribution and rewards
- Benchmark against other chains
- Measure growth strategy effectiveness
Potential Impact on Web3 Adoption
Traditional Web3 metrics like total addresses or transaction volumes don't capture user quality or predict ecosystem growth. For blockchains and protocols, this scoring framework enables data-driven analysis of their user base. They can identify which users generate the most value, where user retention is strongest, and which on-chain activities correlate with long-term ecosystem health.
This quantitative approach helps protocols understand their competitive position. For example, a chain might have fewer total users than competitors but generate more value through higher-quality engagement. The data also reveals ecosystem weaknesses - showing where users drop off, which features aren't gaining traction, and where growth strategies need adjustment.
The broader impact on Web3 adoption comes through:
- More efficient resource allocation for user acquisition
- Better product development based on valuable user behavior
- Standardized metrics for ecosystem growth
- Targeted incentives that drive sustainable adoption
Potential Impact on Web3 Adoption
Wallet Scores can play a crucial role in driving Web3 adoption by providing clear, data-driven insights into the reliability, security, and usability of wallets—essential tools for interacting with decentralized ecosystems. As wallets serve as the gateway to Web3, enabling users to manage digital assets, engage with DeFi platforms, and participate in virtual economies, their performance directly impacts user trust and adoption. By evaluating wallets based on metrics like user activity, developer contributions, and community engagement, Wallet Scores help eliminate uncertainty for both newcomers and experienced users, guiding them toward trusted solutions. This transparency reduces friction, encourages safer participation, and builds confidence in Web3 tools, ultimately fostering broader adoption of decentralized technologies and digital ownership.