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200-day view, the clock is the other half. Bitcoin has now spent about three quarters as long below that average as the typical prior bear did, and most of those bears ran longer still. A drawdown this gentle has not yet served the time its predecessors served, which argues for patience rather than for calling the low, particularly for anyone working from a four-year cycle map.
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#BTC closed its weekly candle near the support area, and nothing is particularly clear. This week, we will likely see the same thing happening, and little will be done. A downtrend move can be expected.
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#DXY consolidated over the major support area. Still holding over it. Index falling lower is good, but we need to see a candle close below the area. Then we can expect a bullish move in the market.
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Bitcoin is trading in the biggest cost-basis zone, around $62K–$68K. It is split almost evenly between short-term and long-term holders.
Long-term holders provide support, while short-term holders are more likely to sell on a bounce. The key level is $69K, with major supply above at $83K–$86K.
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE:
#BITCOIN has continued to be rejected at intermediate resistance and is still ranging. Let's see how the weekly close plays out, and we will then anticipate some short-term moves.
$BTC implied volatility continues to compress, led by the front end. 1-week ATM IV has fallen toward 26%, while 6-month IV remains near 39%, steepening the term structure as traders price in subdued near-term moves but retain longer-dated uncertainty.
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The dollar has been rallying since May, and Bitcoin is handling it worse than almost any dollar rally on record. The typical precedent since 2015 had Bitcoin higher by this point in the run. This time it is deep in the red, with 3 of the 20 past rallies worse.
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#BTC still figuring out its next directional move with nothing significant happening at this stage. Shallow moves up and down continuing to frustrate both bulls and bears with no clear conviction emerging from either side.
Market remains in a holding pattern — avoid overtrading in this environment and wait patiently for a decisive and convincing move to develop before committing to any position in either direction.
#BTC attempting to move back up towards the resistance area again, might be on the verge of breaking the zone. Once the zone is flipped and the weekly candle closes, this could be a good sign for the bullish move to start. We'll see additional confirmation on the way to be strong on bias.
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#BTC goes sideways and dropped hard and strongly yesterday at the NY Open. Price is still unclear and there is not much to do here. LTF turns bearish; now we can expect a short-term drop in the market.
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Strategy increased its USD Reserve by $650M and repurchased $109M of $STRC. This increased USD Duration by 143 days to 2.7 yrs and tightened STRC's BTC Credit by 10 bps. As of 8/9/26, we hold ₿840,447 in our BTC Reserve and $4.65B in our USD Reserve.
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#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE:
#BTC is still moving sideways, bounded within the Weekly Key area. This means we need to wait an additional week to see a breakout of the zone.
Last week Bitcoin outran the equity indices, absorbing an oil shock that left stocks flat and finishing ahead of both. That relative strength has faded. Bitcoin spent this week sliding while US and European stocks sat still, and the break came on Monday: from that session onward it has not been level with stocks again. Oil gave last week's spike back and ended the week the weakest of the four.
One week of relative weakness is not a regime change. It does take away one of the few things this market had going for it through the June repair, when Bitcoin was being bought on days equities did nothing.
#BTC again experienced a short-term rejection from the resistance area, and a move lower may be imminent. However, anticipating this too early would be premature; wait for the candlestick confirmation on the Daily TF.
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#BANANA is forming a bull flag pattern following the break of the downtrend channel pattern. Now, place stops in the break of the pattern and take the long and short positions depending on the closing side.
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#US30 UPDATE:
#US30 forming a small wedge pattern and support is a little more down so it be give a negative break and fell lower. In case Index can a positive breakout then we can take short-term buys targeting the ATH as Take Profit.
Two key measures confirm this is a historically mild bear market 📉🔴. Against the 200D MA, no prior bear kept price this close to trend — deepest discount this cycle stopped well short of the mildest bear before it 💪.
Drawdown from #AllTimeHigh tells the same story — prior bears bottomed well below where this cycle has traded throughout. Historically shallow conditions suggesting structural resilience beneath the surface ⚡️🎯👀
#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE:
#BTC had a rejection from the weekly resistance straight back to the weekly support, with that the range continues to go further for next week. This month we don't have any strong news events, so breakout chances are pretty low. Nothing much to happen; just keep waiting.
#TOTAL UPDATE:
#TOTAL is still moving back and forth within the support area, moving sideways now. The market remains undecided, letting prices float here and there until some solid confirmation kicks in.
The second channel is more mechanical. Three-month futures basis, the yield on the cash-and-carry trade that anchors institutional participation in crypto, has been paying less than a 2-year Treasury since February. Only one other stretch on record has run this long, from August 2022 into January 2023, and it ended at the cycle low.
When Treasuries out-yield the basis, the desks that supply leverage, depth and volume to this market have little reason to be here. Much of what follows in the off-chain section looks downstream of that one spread.
#BTC is making small, new lower lows, and the price has nearly reached the middle of the range. Expecting more downside ahead, we will see how everything unfolds based on price action.
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#BTC.D failed to move anything and also the new Higher High. The index goes sideways after the break of the triangle pattern, but moving higher is still probable, so altcoins might dip again.
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Here is the analysis of #ATOM:
#ATOM is too unclear to say anything definitively, as the price action is not clear. It shows just a clean downtrend with small moves up now. The price can still move lower, so a price retracement and taking shorts could be really good.
#GOLD showed a triangle pattern breakout and a sideways market breakout. Price provided an entry opportunity and moved into profit. Price can still move higher, and a re-entry could be possible.
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The FOMC decides today, and the bond market has already made up its mind. The 2-year Treasury yield, the cleanest read on where policy goes next, has been sitting above the Federal Funds Rate since April, and the gap is the widest it has been since November 2022. That is not the pricing of a market waiting for a cut; it leans toward the next move being a hike.
A cut today would surprise most of that positioning, and it would sit naturally alongside the soft core inflation print this report flagged last week. The reaction would matter more than the move: should the market fail to hold a bid on good news it was not expecting, that would say more about the absence of a marginal buyer than the decision itself.
#US30 UPDATE:
#US30 is moving as per the plan and has reached a new all-time high, up around 3%. Hold your positions if you have taken longs and are expecting a new ATH.
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE:
#BITCOIN has slowly retraced the entire week, moving up and up, still following the range with nothing happening. Nothing can be anticipated here; we need to wait for the price to move in either direction or for clarity.
#SNX gave a break of the consolidation and formed the small range there too. Its a sign for short-selling but market is trying to sustaining at the bottom of the range. If it break the small range too (Blue Box) then get into the short positions too.
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Smart money is buying this bear market. Retail is selling into it.
BTC whale balances climbed to ~3.06M coins through 2026, accumulating as price broke below $60K.
ETH shows a clear split: large cohorts (10k+) at record highs, while smaller wallets keep distributing.
BTC and XRP are trading near realized price, ETH is already below it, the zone that's historically marked cycle lows.
#BTC slowly moved into the resistance area. It is now at a decision point: it could be rejected from the zone, or a clear weekly candle close could be really good for the bullish intention.
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