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The URPD metric reveals the current cost basis of the circulating Bitcoin supply. The spot price sits within a dense cluster of coins, suggesting small price changes can significantly impact investor profits.
Key observations from the URPD chart:
- The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis is in the middle of this dense cluster, a crucial indicator of near-term sentiment.
- Large supply nodes at the True Market Mean and Active Investor Price act as important support levels.
- Nearby "air gaps" with few transactions could signal potential downside risk.
Overall, the market appears fragile, with a substantial volume of supply sensitive to the next major price movement.
#BTC fails to hit the #ATH level and surpassing it but now gone though a small retracement phrase forming a Bull Flag Pattern. HTF & LTF looks bullish and expecting a #ATH level sooner before weekend. Elections are coming, we can expect wild moves randomly in between of the market.
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Analyzing the market's broader cost basis paints a constructive picture. Bitcoin's current spot price sits above both the True Market Mean ($47k) and Active Investor Price ($52.5k) - metrics that estimate the average cost for investors participating in the current cycle. The price has only briefly dipped below the Active Investor Price this year, suggesting fairly robust demand. This pricing position above these key levels is typically seen during bull markets, offering support during pullbacks.
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#BTC continues to it uptrend and moved strong towards near the All Time Highs but missed by few dollars. Price had some minor retracement now and $71,500 is the ideal area for it go get it zone. Expected a sweep of al ATH by any news event.
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What Is Tendermint?
Tendermint is a consensus mechanism that allows applications to launch across different machines securely and consistently. It works with a Byzantine Fault Tolerance of up to 33%. That means applications on Tendermint work even if up to one of the three machines they run on fails.
Tendermint uses a proof-of-stake consensus, where a random node from a validator set is selected in each period. The node proposes a new block, which is added to the chain with instant transaction finality. The blockchain has a modular architecture, meaning its consensus and network layers are separate from its application layer. That allows developers to build blockchain applications without having to worry about bootstrapping a consensus mechanism.
How Does Tendermint Work?
There are two components to Tendermint: the blockchain consensus engine and a generic application interface. The consensus engine is called Tendermint Core and ensures transactions are recorded on all nodes in the same order. The application interface is called Application BlockChain Interface (ABCI), which enables transactions to be processed in any programming language. Developers can use Tendermint to build applications on top of it. Moreover, unlike monolithic blockchains, they are free to choose the programming language and development environment.
Tendermint Core
Tendermint Core is an asynchronous BFT consensus protocol. Validators take turns proposing and voting on blocks. If a block is not committed, the protocol moves on to the next round and a new block is proposed. Voting happens in two blocks, with a pre-commit and a pre-vote stage. If two-thirds of validators pre-commit to a block, it is committed.
A block can fail commitment because the proposer is offline or the network is slow. Before moving on to the next block, validators wait for a brief period of time to receive a complete block proposal. This timeout reliance defines Tendermint as a weakly synchronous protocol. Validators then continue after they have heard from two-thirds of all validators.
Safety is guaranteed as long as less than one-third of the validators are Byzantine. Therefore, validators can not commit conflicting blocks at the same height. Once a validator pre-commits a block, it is locked. The block is then pre-voted on or can be unlocked and pre-committed for a new block.
#GOLD UPDATE :
#GOLD kept on printing the new ATH and now formed a head and Shoulder pattern which is a reversal pattern. Well, in this bullish market the probability of this pattern to play out decreases. Also, we can see price gone into the consolidation range and on its way to break it and discovery of new ATH's.
Here's the Analysis of #FTT :
#FTT is been moving with in a consolidation range and rejected strongly from the Strong resistance area of $2.67 - $2.81. price now declining towards the support zone of $1.49 and lower zones around $1.00. Not expecting much from here and accumulation looks good at support and lower zone too.
The current Bitcoin bull market pullback fits historical patterns, showing a maximum drawdown of -26% from recent highs - actually milder than previous cycles. While the past few months have been this cycle's toughest period since the FTX collapse in late 2022, buyer demand has remained notably resilient. This suggests that despite recent challenges, the overall uptrend structure remains stronger than in past bull markets.
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#BTC gave a good rejection of the support in Weekly TF, and now we can see some sort of consolidation but at the same time its rejecting though the Strong Support. Look for a Upmove and also we have some strong news event.
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The market's health is further confirmed by Short-Term Holders' profit-taking behavior. They're now taking profits at 14.17 times the rate of losses - a dramatic turnaround from recent weeks. This strong shift from losses to profits indicates a significantly healthier market structure compared to just weeks ago.
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#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Weekly TF, retraced back to the support zone, and now kinda rejecting it now. Its a good sign that weekly is rejecting and by next week we can expect some sort of higher move to the upside towards $70,000 and All-Time Highs.
What is #MVRV Ratio ?
The #MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) score is a metric used to assess the #valuation of a cryptocurrency by comparing its market value to its realized value. The #MVRV score helps to gauge whether a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued based on its #historical price movement.
The market value of a #cryptocurrency refers to its current price multiplied by the total supply of #coins in circulation. On the other hand, the realized value takes into account the price at which each coin last moved on the #blockchain, essentially measuring the average price at which investors acquired their holdings.
So what does that Indicate ?
#MVRV Values > 3.5 has generally served as a strong signal for late stage #bull cycles, and heightened probability of heavy #distribution or simple indicate a potential Market Top.
#MVRV Vales < 1.0: indicates that a large cross-section of the #supply is near break-even, or held at a loss. These low values have typically provided strong signal of market capitulation and late stage #bear accumulations or Simply Indicate the Market Bottom.
#APE gave a minor reaction but eventually hit the stop due to altcoin dropping hard. Price flipped the area lower and had a very sharp retest and rejection for shorting as per the plan. Price moved 29% in profits in shorts, i hope you played with the setup.
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Here's the Analysis of #PENDLE :
#PENDLE moving with in the large channel pattern and started a small consolidation inside the resistance area of $4.66 - $4.92. Price looks bullish and healthy and expected to move higher, so look for the Daily candle closure and breakout.
Stay tuned for a TA/FA based SPOT & FUTURES call at 5PM GMT today!
Exchange: Binance & MEXC
#TROY is had a great move to the upside and breaking its resistance and tapped into key area. With that its rejected, back to the zone as support. Price moved 68% in profits. I hope you secure profits at resistance, still we can expect see some sort of up move.
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Here's the Analysis of #FET :
#FET is been moving within steep downtrend channel pattern and nearly bouncing off from the support zone at $1.00. The main support is at $0.92 - $0.95 and as market is at bullish phrase, we can expect this zone as accumulation and movement higher is expected.
#ZEC made a fakeout of the support zone and moved to its previous highs. Now price action looks good enough to move higher now. The zone is pretty big so, but now high probable to see the move higher.
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Here's the Analysis of #TROY :
#TROY going though the retracement phrase after a strong bullish move to the upside and now moving within a range at support area of $0.0020 - $0.0021 and resistance area of $0.0028 - $0.0030. Market looks good and healthy now and looks good enough for the buys here targeting resistance and higher.
One key metric for gauging market health is the average purchase price of different investor groups. Right now, the Short-Term Holder cohort - representing new market demand - is particularly telling. Bitcoin's price has recently pushed above these newer investors' average cost basis of $62.5k, a positive development suggesting reduced selling pressure. However, if the price falls back below this threshold, these recent buyers could face mounting pressure to sell, especially given the already challenging market conditions of recent months.
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#BTC gone as per the expected move, price just broke thought he accumulation range and kinda rejected the resistance marked. #Bitcoin again attempting to break the zone and we might see some struggle now here in this zone.
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What Is Tardigrade (Storj)?
Tardigrade, launched by the Storj (STORJ) platform in March 2020, is an S3-compatible decentralized cloud storage service.
Cloud storage is a technology that allows for the storage of digital data – text, image, audio, video files and more – “in the cloud,” i.e. on a remote server operated by a dedicated service provider. Using cloud vs. local storage offers a range of advantages, such as the increased efficiency of server setups (resulting in a lower cost of storage per byte) and the ability to access stored data from anywhere in the world.
Many companies use cloud storage services to store and access digital data, as well as serve it to their customers – and the S3 application programming interface (API), first released by Amazon Web Services in 2006, serves as the industry standard for interfacing with files in the cloud. Most established cloud storage providers are compatible with this standard, which allows for a great degree of interoperability across the industry and makes the migration of data between clouds easy.
Tardigrade, named after a resilient microscopic animal, is a similar S3-compliant storage service, albeit a decentralized one – instead of employing large server clusters situated in dedicated data centers for its operation, Tardigrade relies on a distributed network of small-scale storage nodes.
The files stored on Tardigrade are broken down into as many as 80 parts, which are encrypted and sent to multiple storage nodes on the network. Only 29 of these parts later need to be retrieved from the nodes to reassemble the file – such redundancy is implemented to make the system resilient against possible downtime — or complete shutdown — of individual storage nodes.
The fact that files are split into multiple parts and spread across many storage nodes also prevents both individual nodes and the protocol at large from unauthorized mining of uploaded data. According to Storj, Tardigrade was the first decentralized S3-compatible cloud storage solution to enter operation.
#US30 UPDATE :
#US30 failed to form the new ATH and broke the trendline. Price dropped hard and back inside the consolidation range and this will work as the support zone. Expecting a reversal from here and touch the previous highs.
Here's the Analysis of #ZEC :
#ZEC is been gave a flip below of the flip area around $33.70 - $34.85 and looks strongly lower as it made a double top pattern over it. We can expect the price to move lower to the supporting trendline and a bounce from there. Price action is not clear, so wait for the price to have the reaction.
#DXY UPDATE :
#DXY continued the push to the upside and we saw some sort of reaction in altcoins too. Index broke the resistance area and weekly closing happened too. We can expect a small move up again, and short-term correction in the global market too and a possible rejection from resistance area 104.87% - 105.18%.
#ETH played well with the drawn zones, price strongly rejected from the resistance area build around 2760 - $2800. Currently price testing the strong support zone of $2403 - $2424. We need to see some sort of daily close above $2550 to confirm the continuous bullish momentum.
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Short-Term Holder data continues to show improving market health, with 62% of their Bitcoin now in profit. This tells us two important things: many of these holders bought between $53k and $66k, and their profitability is reaching new local highs. With the overall supply in profit now approaching its historical average, we're seeing a meaningful recovery in market strength. This improvement suggests reduced selling pressure from newer investors.
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#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Daily TF, moved back and forth over the same area and Daily TF kinda turned bearish now, Price also had a dropped to expected area and now we can anticipate to move further higher towards the $70,000 mark. Weekend in on so we price might move slow.
Upcoming signal has been postponed for tomorrow.
Thank you for your understanding
happy trading. Stay tuned!
Recent data on Short-Term Holders (STH) reveals an encouraging trend. While these newer investors are currently at a loss (shown by their MVRV ratio below 1), their losses are much smaller than during previous bear markets like 2022. Even better, while Bitcoin's price has stayed flat recently, the STH profitability metric is improving. This suggests new investors are under less financial pressure than typically seen in bear markets.
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