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A similar story is echoed in the percentage of supply in profit metric, which provides a read on the global profitability of the supply.
Like the MVRV Ratio, this oscillator has returned to its long-standing mean value. Previous instances where a similar retest of this level occurred are visible in late 2016, throughout the choppy 2019 period and during the mid-2021 sell-off.
#BTC did broke the wedge pattern but already said, Major Resistance Standing strong enough. Price nearly filled out the bottom wick and can expected a sweep or lower low to form.
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What is #MVRV-Z Score ?
MVRV Z-Score is a bitcoin chart that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value'.
It uses three metrics:
1. Market Value (black line): The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
2. Realised Value (blue line): Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realised Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
In doing so, it strips out the short term market sentiment that we have within the Market Value metric. It can therefore be seen as a more 'true' long term measure of Bitcoin value which Market Value moves above and below depending on the market sentiment at the time.
3. Z-score (orange line): A standard deviation test that pulls out the extremes in the data between market value and realised value.
How It Can Be Used
The MVRV Z-score has historically been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realised value. These periods are highlighted by the z-score (orange line) entering the pink box and indicates the top of market cycles. It has been able to pick the market high of each cycle to within two weeks.
It also shows when market value is far below realised value, highlighted by z-score entering the green box. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool
MVRV Z-Score bitcoin chart is useful for predicting Bitcoin price at the extremes of market conditions. It is able to forecast where Bitcoin price may need to pull back when MVRV Z-score enters the upper red band, and also when $BTC price may rally after spending time in the lower green band.
Historically it has picked major Bitcoin price highs to within 2 weeks.
#BTC attempted to move back to the resistance area getting rejected again. The zone is standing very strong, as long as price trading below it, we might see more dump in altcoins.
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Bitcoin's capital inflows have recently slowed, suggesting a balance between profit and loss-taking. This inactivity is unusual, with 89% of historical days seeing larger inflows outside of bear markets. Such quiet periods often precede increased volatility. Despite this, Bitcoin's Realized Cap remains at an all-time high of $619B, supported by a $217B net inflow since December 2022's $15k low. This combination of factors hints at potential market tension that could lead to significant price movements in the near future.
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as said market is not clear to move to the upside and now its dropping lower and goes near $55,500 mark, where rejection happens. Price might fill out the wick, and a liquidity hunt, below $55,000 too.
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Monthly Returns in #Bitcoin is not so good in September, it barely in profits or in negative 5% - 19% .
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#BTC formed a falling wedge pattern and over the major support zone, moving back and forth to it. Good part is price gave a breakout and inside of the zone. A weekly closing is needed to have some clarity in the market.
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#AVAX Analysis :
#AVAX is moving back and forth of the major support zone of $21.20 - $24.67 and making a falling wedge pattern. Expected thing will be a strong move to the upside from here, but with LTF confirmations.
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#GOLD UPDATE :
#GOLD goes near the #ATH and hovering over there. A new consolidation is formed near the All-Time Highs, which can take this into a another re-distribution phrase (upside move) due to global conflicts. There can be slight chances of correction of the market.
Here's the Analysis of #CREAM :
#CREAM is been dumping alot and reached the listing price in binance and a major support zone of $14.25 - $15.60 and currently, moving within the a small channel pattern. A breakout will decide the directional move, but the trend looks heavily bearish so can;t expect much bullish move.
#DXY UPDATE :
#DXY gave a good closing below the support and had a retest too. Candle was strong enough for closing, so we can expect market of rally. The only problem is current, weekly close above, might turn into a fakeout.
Here's the Analysis of #DUSK :
#DUSK is been rejected hard from the major resistance area around $0.22 and currently, price retesting the structural support zone at $0.19 - $0.20 and need to see some sort of rejection or break to have the setup.
Comparing the Adjusted Spot CVD (30d SMA) with Monthly Percentage Price Change reveals interesting insights. The recent failure to break $70k can be partly attributed to weak spot demand (negative adj-CVD). A potential market recovery could be confirmed when the Adj-CVD returns to positive values, indicating renewed spot demand.
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#TOTAL2 MARKETCAP UPDATE :
#TOTAL2 failed to gave a closing above the resistance area, and did fall, as a reaction, we already saw some short-term dump in the market. Index reached the support zone again, and should hold it else we can see more bleed in overall market.
Here's the Analysis of #APT :
#APT is been kept on rejecting from the Major Resistance Area of $7.24 - $7.29. Price now building a falling wedge pattern and like to get the break to the downside. Buys only after the upside and structural shift.
The MVRV Ratio, which measures investors' average unrealized profit, has recently tested its all-time average of 1.72. This level historically marks the transition between macro bull and bear market trends, with 51% of trading days closing above this mean. The current MVRV suggests investor profitability has reset to equilibrium, indicating that the excitement following the ETF launch has fully subsided. This equilibrium state could potentially signal a pivotal moment in market sentiment and future price direction.
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Here's the Analysis of #FLUX :
#FLUX made a huge Head and Shoulder Pattern and Now stuck between the major support and Resistance area around $$0.67 - $0.71 and $0.46 - $0.49. This is good 25% - 30% range, so take the advantage of it.
#TOTAL MARKET CAP :
#TOTAL Marketcap gave a closing over the resistance respecting the pattern and again slides below it. Now, this is the new range and market can dip further lower too. Potential reversal points will be $1.80T - $1.85T.
Here's the Analysis of #TRB :
#TRB is been dropping lower towards the major support zone and moved below it. Now its a new trading range towards the major support zone of $50.86 - $52.45. Price needs to see some sort retest below moving lower or a daily candle close above will turn the move into fakeout.
#US30 UPDATE :
#US30 perfectly got it retest back to support zone and even wick down taking all liquidity to the market. Now, index printed the All-Time Highs and a potential retest is expected towards the support zone of 41,330 - 41,370. Alternatively, a closing below will have a good range to move lower.
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https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/e1cd64521b7340009601cdb5be470677
What is Hashed TimeLock Contract (HTLC) ?
The term Hashed TimeLock Contract (HTLC) refers to a special feature that is used to create smart contracts that are able to modify payment channels. Technically, the HTLC feature enables the implementation of time-bound transactions between two users. In practice, the recipient of a HTLC transaction has to acknowledge the payment by submitting a cryptographic proof within a specified timeframe (number of blocks). If the recipient forfeits or fails to claim the payment, the funds will be returned to the original sender.
The HTLC feature is applied in both bidirectional and routed payment channels to allow the secure transfers of funds over various channels, without requiring trust on any of the intermediaries.
There are two key elements which distinguish HTLC from standard cryptocurrency transactions, which are:
—> Hashlock: a function that restricts the spending of funds until a certain piece of data is publicly disclosed (as a cryptographic proof). Such proof may also be referred to as the pre-image of the hashlock. The pre-image is simply the piece of information that is used to generate the hashlock, and to later unlock its funds.
—> Timelock: is a function that restricts the spending of funds until a specific time (or block height) in the future. It can be achieved in Bitcoin, for example, using functions like CheckLockTimeVerify or CheckSequenceVerify.
The Bitcoin Lightning Network is among the most popular use cases of Hashed Timelocked Contracts. By implementing HTLC into payment channels, funds can be transacted from user to user through interconnected payment channels, without requiring any level of trust. This process is known as network routing. It allows Alice to exchange funds with Carol even if they are not directly connected through a payment channel. HTLC’s enable Alice to send her funds to Carol through other participants of the network (e.g., Bob) - and the hashlock and timelock features ensure that Bob cannot intercept the funds.
Besides being used on the Lightning Network, HTLCs can also be useful in other contexts, such as cross-chain atomic swaps, financial smart contracts and escrow, and much more.
We can enhance this assessment using the LTH Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures the total realized profit and loss by investors relative to the asset's size (Realized Cap).
- High values suggest that investors are realizing significant profits or losses, indicating the market may need to find a new equilibrium, often after high volatility.
- Low values suggest most coins are being sold near their cost basis, indicating market equilibrium and typically reflecting a low-volatility environment.
Currently, the LTH Sell-Side Risk Ratio is lower than during previous all-time highs, suggesting that long-term holders (LTHs) are taking fewer profits compared to past cycles. This implies that LTHs may be waiting for higher prices before increasing their selling activity.
#BTC looks weak as Weekly candle closes with a engulfing one, and moving lower as price is below major area and also the key level of $60,000 could be a worrying situation.
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Despite significant sell-side pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) at the market ATH, their wealth remains historically high compared to previous ATH breakouts. This suggests potential for further LTH selling if BTC price rises, but also indicates LTHs' unwillingness to sell at lower prices, pointing to a patient and resilient holder base.
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#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Weekly TF, going to be a fakeout now on weekly, candle nearly getting closing and might got engulfed too. Price can do a good correction in case of a engulfing.
What Is the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM)?
The Solana Virtual Machine, or SVM, is the system powering Solana's ability to handle thousands of transactions per second.
In simple terms, SVM is Solana's execution environment. It's the software that runs and processes all the transactions and smart contracts happening on the network. You can think of it like a decentralized computer processing power distributed across all the nodes validating transactions on Solana.
SVM helps with the initiation of a transaction on Solana by executing the required code and modifying Solana's state accordingly.
How Does the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) Work?
SVM isn't one centralized system - it operates as separate instances (called validators) across the nodes validating transactions on Solana. Each validator runs its own isolated version of SVM locally.
This distributed arrangement is vital for security and scalability. It means if there's a bug in a smart contract, it won't crash the whole network. And it enables Solana to spread the workload across many parallel processors, rather than being constrained to one centralized server.
These SVM instances execute the transactions and smart contracts by translating the code into instructions the validators' hardware can comprehend.
Although highly technical, the key takeaway is that SVM allows Solana to run complex programs in a distributed way across many nodes.
#MATIC gave a closing below the support in H4 TF but daily TF ended up being a rejection. In H4 price forming a lower low, and a Daily candle closing above and that will be a good buy opportunity.
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