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As the market stays below the $30,000 mark, approximately 75% of the total supply finds itself in a profitable position, while 25% remains in a loss. Interestingly, this mirrors the same distribution seen during price consolidations in 2016 and 2019.
This equilibrium point, with 75% of supply in profit and 25% in loss, seems to be a significant balance for Bitcoin. Half of all trading days have experienced a higher Profit-to-Loss ratio, while the other half have seen a lower one.
#BTC moved lower after break and retest of the zone, Daily TF also given a close below of the zone strongly. Now, price is in a corrective phrase and drop after a tapping into resistance area around $29,500 and higher.
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#Bitcoin data often displays strangely repetitive patterns cycle after cycle. In the 2021-22 cycle, the $30,000 price level formed somewhat of a 'mid-point', and was tested several times both from above and below.
A very similar level was observed in 2013-16 around the $425 level, and again in 2018-19 at approximately $6,500. Note also that these levels were mentioned above, as points where a similar volume of supply was held 'in-loss'.
#BTC gave break below the zone as expected and price moving lower. Price is now open room for moving lower till next support zone of $28,160 - $28,200. I hope you followed our call and saved the positions.
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What is Bullish Pennant Pattern ?
The Bullish Pennant is a bullish continuation pattern commonly observed in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. It forms after a strong upward price move, represented by a flagpole, followed by a brief period of consolidation characterized by narrowing price fluctuations, creating a pennant shape.
Traders and investors often see the Bullish Pennant as a sign of potential further upside in the asset's price. The pattern suggests that market participants are taking a breather after the initial surge and that the prevailing uptrend is likely to resume once the consolidation phase concludes.
To identify a Bullish Pennant, traders look for decreasing trading volumes during the consolidation, indicating a potential decrease in selling pressure. When the price breaks out above the pennant's upper boundary, it signals a potential bullish continuation, prompting traders to consider entering long positions.
#SXP trying to break below of the range and made a small wedge pattern and now a setup is forming where it could be a potential setup for scalping till support zone of $0.336 - $0.343
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#BTC started giving a shallow closing on Daily TF below the level which is a sigh of Weakness. 4H TF Started a new range and expecting the volume to drive to price this weekend. Keep an eye on breakout as its very important the next move in the market.
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What is Unspent Realized Price Distribution ?
Unspent Realized Price Distribution refers to the distribution of the average acquisition prices of coins that have not been spent or moved since they were acquired. It provides insights into the profitability of the remaining unspent coins based on the prices at which they were acquired.
In the context of Bitcoin, Unspent Realized Price Distribution helps analyze the profitability of different cohorts of coins that have not been spent. It divides the unspent supply of Bitcoin into different cohorts, such as Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH), based on the duration of coin holding.
By examining the Unspent Realized Price Distribution, we can assess the average acquisition prices of the remaining unspent coins held by each cohort. This information provides an understanding of the profitability and potential selling behavior of different investor groups.
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#BITCOIN WEEKLY UPDATE :
#BITCOIN did exactly on Weekly TF as said, price close below the zone with a weak bullish candle and next candle also showing showing bearish strength. Well, that's a clean sign of bearishness, we might price continue dropping next week, So, Careful with any open positions.
What is URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) ?
#URPD stands for UTXO Realized Price Distribution, to analyze the distribution of Bitcoin's realized prices based on the age of the UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) or in other words #UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows at which prices the current set of Bitcoin UTXOs were created (i.e. each bar shows the amount of existing bitcoins that last moved within that specified price bucket). The price specified on the x-axis refers to the lower bound of that bucket.
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution helps to understand the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders based on when they acquired their coins. It divides the UTXOs into different age groups, such as those acquired within the last 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, and so on, and calculates the average price at which those coins were last moved.
This metric provides insights into the behavior of long-term holders (HODLers) and short-term traders. It allows analysts to determine the levels at which different cohorts of Bitcoin holders may be willing to sell their coins, as well as the potential price levels at which they acquired their holdings.
By analyzing the URPD, one can gain a deeper understanding of the distribution of Bitcoin's realized prices across various time frames and identify potential price points where significant buying or selling pressure may emerge.
#TRX made a easy jump after the break & Retest of the triangle pattern and support up trendline. Price made a massive move up Strong resistance. Position made around 17% in profits. I hope you secured some at there. For now Daily candle closing is important above $0.0851 for continuing pushing bullish.
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Here's the Analysis of #FET :
#FET is been gave fakeout of the resistance line and rejected from the strong resistance zone of $0.249 - $0.251. Overall, we can see this is huge consolidation and waiting for a breakout will be a good option. Short-term trade can be taken inside the range.
This is NVT Price Model and this model aims to estimate a reasonable value for a specific amount of on-chain transaction volume.
Over a 28-day period, this model suggests a fair value of $35,900, which is higher than the current spot prices, marking the first time since November 2022. The 90-day model is also rising significantly and catching up, starting from a level of $24,700
#BTC gave a 4H close below again and this time Daily candle also gave a minor closing. Well, now the probability of moving lower is higher we, might see some strong moves when global market volume kicks in.
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#SXP continues to float below the support zone turning it into resistance now. We already had a call with short sell, if you took it after candle closure then shift stops to BE and let see if its drops lower.
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Here's the Analysis of #ARB :
#ARB reached on the support zone of $1.166 - $1.177 after rejection from the major resistance zone of $1.305 - $1.318. Currently, price is on the and better wait for a Daily Candle to break through it for potential setups or form a support for buys from here.
What is Bearish Pennant Pattern ?
The Bearish Pennant is a bearish continuation pattern often observed in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. It typically forms after a significant downward price move, represented by a flagpole, followed by a brief period of consolidation marked by narrowing price fluctuations, creating a pennant shape.
Traders and investors interpret the Bearish Pennant as a signal of potential further downside in the asset's price. The pattern suggests that market participants are taking a breather after the initial decline, and the prevailing downtrend is likely to resume once the consolidation phase concludes.
To identify a Bearish Pennant, traders look for decreasing trading volumes during the consolidation, indicating a potential decrease in buying interest. When the price breaks out below the pennant's lower boundary, it confirms the pattern and may prompt traders to consider entering short positions.
Here is the analysis #MASK:
#Price is hanging between support and resistance level. The upper resistance of the trading range is the $3.98-$4.09 zone and the support is the $3.10-$3.266 zone. There is no opportunity for long or short entries now and better to wait for some time.
The chart below illustrates the amount of supply acquired during the recent correction to $25,000. Approximately 2.47 Million #BTC, which is about 12.7% of the total supply, shifted from being in a loss position to being in a profit position.
On the other hand, the supply that remained in a loss position has decreased to 4.79 million #BTC, reaching levels similar to those observed in various historical periods, such as July 2021 ($30,000), July 2020 ($9,200), April 2016 ($6500), and March 2016 ($425).
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Here's the Analysis of #SXP :
#SXP is been in a large consolidation range, within the support zone of $0.336 - $0.335 and Resistance Zone of $0.4133 and $0.420. Price made a new range (Black Box) within the range. Nothing to do here, better wait for a breakout now.
🔵 A sizeable volume of LTH supply was acquired between $15,000 and $25,000 (thus in profit), and remains unspent, despite prices reaching $31,000.
🔵 Almost all coins with an acquisition price above $30,000 are held by LTHs. These investors are the survivors of the 2021-22 bear, and are either battle hardened HODLers, or likely to create resistance should the market rally higher.
🔴 The price range between $20,000 and $30,000 has seen expanding accumulation since February, despite the onslaught of regulatory pressure in the US.
#TRX daily candle closed below the zone, that would be the sign of rejection. Better Breakeven the stops or move in profits. Price might reverse here.
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Here's the Analysis of #SOL :
#SOL is been in a corrective phrase after the strong breakout of the strong resistance zone of #22.06 - $22.30. Currently, price following the falling wedge pattern and might respect through it. If price breaks below the $24.70 Mark, then we can short this opportunity till support zone.
The following chart provides valuable insight, showcasing the robust accumulation of supply purchased at prices under $30,000. Notably, a substantial amount of coins exchanged hands between $15,000 and $30,000 over the past year. On the contrary, only 25% of the supply was acquired at prices exceeding $30k, primarily held by buyers from the 2021-22 cycle.
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There is not much strength in the market and the downside possibilities are high. #BTC is struggling to reclaim the support level. The volume is low and expected some movement on Monday.
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What is NVT Price Model ?
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) price model is a cryptocurrency valuation metric that was introduced by Willy Woo in 2017. It is used to assess the fundamental value of a cryptocurrency network based on its on-chain transaction volume relative to its market capitalization.
The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of a cryptocurrency by its daily on-chain transaction volume. The idea behind this model is that the transaction volume on the blockchain can be indicative of the network's adoption and utility.
When the NVT ratio is high, it suggests that the cryptocurrency's market capitalization is overvalued relative to the level of economic activity happening on the network. Conversely, a low NVT ratio may indicate that the cryptocurrency is undervalued compared to the level of transactional activity.
The NVT price model is one of several valuation metrics used by analysts and investors to gain insights into the market's sentiment and potential price movements. However, like any valuation model, it should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools and not relied upon as the sole determinant of an investment decision.
#SUI formed the resistance ad dropped more than 5% in our favor. ITs time to shift Stops in Breakeven and hodl the trade as support uptrend line also broke so price might push lower.
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Here's the Analysis of #BCH :
#BCH is been in the falling wedge pattern and slides below the strong level of area around $267 - $277. We might see a retest back to the zone with a confluence of resistance trendline. You can take shorting opportunities over confirmation.