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What is Unspent Realized Price Distribution ?
Unspent Realized Price Distribution refers to the distribution of the average acquisition prices of coins that have not been spent or moved since they were acquired. It provides insights into the profitability of the remaining unspent coins based on the prices at which they were acquired.
In the context of Bitcoin, Unspent Realized Price Distribution helps analyze the profitability of different cohorts of coins that have not been spent. It divides the unspent supply of Bitcoin into different cohorts, such as Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH), based on the duration of coin holding.
By examining the Unspent Realized Price Distribution, we can assess the average acquisition prices of the remaining unspent coins held by each cohort. This information provides an understanding of the profitability and potential selling behavior of different investor groups.
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#BITCOIN WEEKLY UPDATE :
#BITCOIN did exactly on Weekly TF as said, price close below the zone with a weak bullish candle and next candle also showing showing bearish strength. Well, that's a clean sign of bearishness, we might price continue dropping next week, So, Careful with any open positions.
What is URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) ?
#URPD stands for UTXO Realized Price Distribution, to analyze the distribution of Bitcoin's realized prices based on the age of the UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) or in other words #UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows at which prices the current set of Bitcoin UTXOs were created (i.e. each bar shows the amount of existing bitcoins that last moved within that specified price bucket). The price specified on the x-axis refers to the lower bound of that bucket.
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution helps to understand the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders based on when they acquired their coins. It divides the UTXOs into different age groups, such as those acquired within the last 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, and so on, and calculates the average price at which those coins were last moved.
This metric provides insights into the behavior of long-term holders (HODLers) and short-term traders. It allows analysts to determine the levels at which different cohorts of Bitcoin holders may be willing to sell their coins, as well as the potential price levels at which they acquired their holdings.
By analyzing the URPD, one can gain a deeper understanding of the distribution of Bitcoin's realized prices across various time frames and identify potential price points where significant buying or selling pressure may emerge.
#TRX made a easy jump after the break & Retest of the triangle pattern and support up trendline. Price made a massive move up Strong resistance. Position made around 17% in profits. I hope you secured some at there. For now Daily candle closing is important above $0.0851 for continuing pushing bullish.
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Here's the Analysis of #FET :
#FET is been gave fakeout of the resistance line and rejected from the strong resistance zone of $0.249 - $0.251. Overall, we can see this is huge consolidation and waiting for a breakout will be a good option. Short-term trade can be taken inside the range.
This is NVT Price Model and this model aims to estimate a reasonable value for a specific amount of on-chain transaction volume.
Over a 28-day period, this model suggests a fair value of $35,900, which is higher than the current spot prices, marking the first time since November 2022. The 90-day model is also rising significantly and catching up, starting from a level of $24,700
#BTC gave a 4H close below again and this time Daily candle also gave a minor closing. Well, now the probability of moving lower is higher we, might see some strong moves when global market volume kicks in.
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What is Symmetrical Triangle Pattern ?
A Symmetrical Triangle is a chart pattern commonly observed in financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market. It forms when the price of an asset creates a series of higher lows and lower highs, converging towards a point known as the apex. This results in the formation of a triangle pattern with both the upper and lower boundaries meeting at the same point.
Traders interpret the Symmetrical Triangle as a potential continuation pattern, meaning that the price is likely to continue its previous trend once the pattern is confirmed. However, the direction of the breakout is not predetermined, as the pattern can break in either direction.
During the formation, trading volumes decrease, indicating a period of indecision among market participants. Traders anticipate a breakout and monitor volume closely. When the price breaks out of the upper or lower line with a significant increase in trading volume, it confirms the pattern and signal a trend continuation.
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Daily TF, still moving in a range, tried multiple times to break the support and resistance but failed. Price formed the new support and trying to push now. It might reach other end of the consolidation. So eyes on breakout only, nothing more.
What is Bull Flag ?
A bull flag is a bullish chart pattern that occurs during an uptrend in trading. It is characterized by a brief consolidation period following a sharp price increase, forming a rectangular-shaped pattern. The flagpole represents the initial surge in price, while the flag itself is a period of sideways or slightly downward price movement.
The bull flag pattern indicates a temporary pause or consolidation within an ongoing uptrend, suggesting that buyers are taking a breather before continuing the upward momentum. It is often seen as a bullish continuation pattern, indicating that the price is likely to resume its upward movement after the flag pattern completes.
Traders commonly look for specific criteria to confirm a bull flag pattern and once the price breaks out of the upper trendline of the flag, it may signal a potential buying opportunity and a continuation of the uptrend.
#TRX made a triangle pattern and did attempt to break below of the trendline but rejecting it. Well, if price break the traingle and trendline then it will be a perfect setup for shorts. For now, price potentially bounce from here. If structural break happens then buys on retest
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#BTC finally, given a close below candle on 4H TF, which making the market bearish but Daily Candle close is also important to close below to make it completely bearish. Now we've 50-50 chances of going lower or consolidate again.
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As inscriptions show a decrease in activity, we can observe that the momentum of active addresses is once again on the rise. Initially, one might have interpreted the past 2-3 months as a decline in Bitcoin network activity. However, the accurate understanding is that this period was characterized by substantial address re-use by inscription traders. In reality, network activity was thriving, with blocks being fully utilized and carrying out numerous transactions.
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🔵 A sizeable volume of LTH supply was acquired between $15,000 and $25,000 (thus in profit), and remains unspent, despite prices reaching $31,000.
🔵 Almost all coins with an acquisition price above $30,000 are held by LTHs. These investors are the survivors of the 2021-22 bear, and are either battle hardened HODLers, or likely to create resistance should the market rally higher.
🔴 The price range between $20,000 and $30,000 has seen expanding accumulation since February, despite the onslaught of regulatory pressure in the US.
#TRX daily candle closed below the zone, that would be the sign of rejection. Better Breakeven the stops or move in profits. Price might reverse here.
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Here's the Analysis of #SOL :
#SOL is been in a corrective phrase after the strong breakout of the strong resistance zone of #22.06 - $22.30. Currently, price following the falling wedge pattern and might respect through it. If price breaks below the $24.70 Mark, then we can short this opportunity till support zone.
The following chart provides valuable insight, showcasing the robust accumulation of supply purchased at prices under $30,000. Notably, a substantial amount of coins exchanged hands between $15,000 and $30,000 over the past year. On the contrary, only 25% of the supply was acquired at prices exceeding $30k, primarily held by buyers from the 2021-22 cycle.
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There is not much strength in the market and the downside possibilities are high. #BTC is struggling to reclaim the support level. The volume is low and expected some movement on Monday.
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What is NVT Price Model ?
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) price model is a cryptocurrency valuation metric that was introduced by Willy Woo in 2017. It is used to assess the fundamental value of a cryptocurrency network based on its on-chain transaction volume relative to its market capitalization.
The NVT ratio is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of a cryptocurrency by its daily on-chain transaction volume. The idea behind this model is that the transaction volume on the blockchain can be indicative of the network's adoption and utility.
When the NVT ratio is high, it suggests that the cryptocurrency's market capitalization is overvalued relative to the level of economic activity happening on the network. Conversely, a low NVT ratio may indicate that the cryptocurrency is undervalued compared to the level of transactional activity.
The NVT price model is one of several valuation metrics used by analysts and investors to gain insights into the market's sentiment and potential price movements. However, like any valuation model, it should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools and not relied upon as the sole determinant of an investment decision.
#SUI formed the resistance ad dropped more than 5% in our favor. ITs time to shift Stops in Breakeven and hodl the trade as support uptrend line also broke so price might push lower.
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Here's the Analysis of #BCH :
#BCH is been in the falling wedge pattern and slides below the strong level of area around $267 - $277. We might see a retest back to the zone with a confluence of resistance trendline. You can take shorting opportunities over confirmation.
#SUI making a retest back to the zone as resistance and potentially fall from here, if 4H candle form new resistance after then shorting will be high probable.
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Here's the Analysis of #SUI :
#SUI gave a fake-out of the zone and getting back inside it and zone will act as resistance around $0.713 - $0.726. There's the supporting trendline below, where might price react to. Incase of break below, we can see a push till support zone of $0.630 - $0.630.
By focusing solely on exchange inflows and outflows, we observe a positive momentum within the Bitcoin network. The monthly average of exchange flows has surpassed the yearly average, indicating a potential increase in adoption from a monetary asset perspective, which aligns with historical patterns.
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Here's the Analysis of 1INCH :
1INCH is been had a very strong rejection from the resistance zone of $0.568 - $0.583 and melting. Price also rejected the resistance of $0.426 - $0.438 and potentially bounce from the trendline. Right now, price approaching the Structural Support at $0.349. In case of break we can take shorts-sells positions.
#AVAX took us out at minor loss and moved below the major resistance zone and potentially hit the trendline and bounce from it. Keep an eye on movement.
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#BTC dipped down strongly back to support zone and bounced and still in HTF, its a range and we should wait for a breakout either side and anticipating volume to drive the price.
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