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Bitcoin crossed over the $40k mark to open December and Gold also pushed to new all-time-highs over $2,110 relative to the USD this week, setting a new historical high against all fiat currencies. Indexed to the start of the year, BTC has outperformed both ##USD and #Gold denominators.
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To put the current supply profitability into perspective, the chart below highlights three typical cycle phases over the last 5 years.
Bottom Discovery 🟥 where less than 58% (-1 std) of circulating coins are in profit.
Bear/Bull Transition 🟨 where the market is recovering from the Bottom Discovery phase (or falling from Euphoria) by trading within 58% of supply in profit and 90%.
Euphoria 🟩 where most coins are in profit as the price is reaching the last ATH (+1 std).
The market has been within the Bear/Bull Transition phase for the past 10 months, as it recovered from the 2022 bear trend. The majority of 2023 has traded below the all-time average, with the October rally being the first sustained break above.
What Is a DYCO (Dynamic Coin Offering)?
DYCO (dynamic coin offering) is a new crowdfunding model developed by DAO Maker that employs utility tokens that are backed by USD for the first 16 months of their lifespan in order to promote accountability from project developers.
Notably, the USD backing allows DYCO investors to refund their tokens in the event that the project claim their share in case the project is not able to deliver a viable product. For example, if an investor sees that project developers veered off course, they can opt to return their allocated tokens and get their money back. Refunded tokens permanently leave circulation via burning, giving the project an adjusted valuation as the token supply is reduced, which in turn, increases each token's value.
The USD backing also provides a hedge against a token’s downward price movements while offering unlimited upward momentum.
Apart from targeting the primary market, DYCO has a second iteration called dynamic coin offering version two (DYCO v2), which focuses on building trust even on the secondary market.
In a DYCO v2, a smart contract distributes tokens to investors in the form of a toll bridge, catering to original buyers who have no intention to stay with the project long term. In such a case, it allows them to refund their allocations and exit during a project’s initial days.
Notably, a team that seeks investments through a DYCO has no power to alter the set refund dates. DYCO v2 fine-tunes this functionality by accounting for a project’s early growth without inconveniencing those who want to leave early and negatively affecting the secondary market’s confidence.
The first blockchain project to use this model was Orion Protocol.
#GMT is been moving good with the Daily Candle closure and moving around 7.5% in favor, Well, its smoothly moving and broke the 4H structure and expecting a deeper retracement, back to the zone or at $0.272.
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the chart below shows the net balance change of these various 'stored' supply metrics since 1-Jan-2022. We use the change in circulating supply (orange) as our baseline, and see that the rates of accumulation by investors ranges from between 1.1x through to almost 2.5x new issuance.
Not only are our measures of 'available supply' at historical lows, the rates of 'supply storage' by investors are also meaningfully higher than issuance rates in a pre-halving environment. The cyclical nature of Bitcoin market cycles during bear markets and halving events can be described by these investor accumulation patterns, reminding us of a saying in markets
What is Moving Average ?
A Moving Average (MA) is a statistical calculation used in finance and technical analysis to analyze data over a certain time period, smoothing out fluctuations and highlighting trends. It's a common tool in financial analysis, trading, and various fields where time series data is examined. The primary purpose of a moving average is to reduce noise in data and make underlying patterns more apparent.
Here's how a simple moving average (SMA) works:
1. Calculation: A simple moving average is calculated by summing up a set of data points (e.g., prices) over a specific number of periods and then dividing the sum by the number of periods. The formula for a simple moving average is:
SMA = (Sum of Data Points over 'n' periods) / 'n'
#DXY Analysis :
#DXY Moving in the bearish market structure and flipped below resistance zone. Index is been bearish, the reason why market is being pushed higher. With the Monday Market, we can expect some push or fakeout over the market. Best case scenario will be a retest back to the strong Resistance Zone of 104.8 - $105.18.
Here, we observe a nearly flawless inflow score 🟦 across all cohorts, marking a particularly notable example for the year. A discernible pattern emerges, indicating that the market encounters resistance during phases of heightened net outflows 🟥 across most cohorts. Conversely, market upswings coincide with a prevailing trend of balanced inflows 🟦. This phenomenon suggests a strengthening investor confidence and a notable shift in participant behavior.
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#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN in Weekly TF giving a another rejection from the Resistance level and this this it might gonna close bearish. Well, Daily Still looks good enough for bullish momentum but by the next week, we'll have the clear picture out there.
What Is a Decentralized Identifier (#DID) ?
A Decentralized Identifier (DID) is a new type of identifier that is fully under the control of the DID subject, independent from any centralized registry, authority, or intermediary. DIDs are a foundational component of decentralized identity systems, providing a way for entities to create and manage their own identifiers in a secure, private, and interoperable manner.
Key features of DIDs include:
1. Ownership and Control: DIDs are owned and controlled by the entity to which they are assigned. This entity, often an individual or an organization, has the authority to make decisions about the use and sharing of their DID.
2. Decentralization: DIDs are not tied to a central authority or intermediary. They leverage distributed ledger technologies, such as blockchain, to ensure that no single entity has exclusive control over the identifier system.
3. Security and Privacy: DIDs are designed to prioritize security and privacy. They allow entities to have control over their personal information and selectively disclose it to others based on their preferences.
4. Interoperability: DIDs are designed to be interoperable across different systems and platforms. This means that they can be used in various applications and contexts, fostering a more open and inclusive digital identity ecosystem.
5. Cryptographic Authentication: DIDs often use cryptographic methods to authenticate and prove ownership of the identifier. This enhances security and ensures that only the entity with the appropriate private key can control the DID.
DIDs play a crucial role in enabling self-sovereign identity, where individuals have greater control over their own digital identities, reducing reliance on centralized authorities and enhancing user privacy and security. They are a key building block in the development of decentralized identity systems and are gaining attention for their potential to transform how identity is managed in the digital world.
the HODLer Net Position Change (Vaulted Supply) metric has displayed a consistent uptrend in #BTC inflows since June 2021, with a notable surge following the June 2022 sell-off. This metric underscores the growing maturity of the #Bitcoin supply, indicating increased accumulation by investors. The sustained trend reflects a collective inclination to hold onto #BTC, signaling confidence in its long-term value appreciation.
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What Is Decentralized API (dAPI)?
A Decentralized API (dAPI) is an application programming interface (API) that operates on decentralized or blockchain networks. Traditional APIs are typically centralized, with a single entity or organization providing access to their services or data. In contrast, dAPIs are designed to operate in a decentralized and trustless environment, where no single entity has control over the data or services provided.
Key characteristics of decentralized APIs (dAPIs) include:
1. Decentralization: dAPIs are built on decentralized networks, such as blockchain platforms. These networks are often maintained by a distributed network of nodes, rather than a central authority. This ensures that the API's functionality and data are not controlled by a single entity.
2. Trustlessness: dAPIs are designed to be trustless, meaning users can interact with them without needing to trust any single party. The trust is instead placed in the underlying blockchain technology and the consensus mechanisms that secure the network.
3. Security: Decentralized APIs benefit from the security features of blockchain technology, such as cryptographic encryption and immutability. Data stored on the blockchain is highly secure and resistant to tampering.
4. Smart Contracts: Many dAPIs are powered by smart contracts, which are self-executing agreements with the terms of the contract directly written into code. Smart contracts enable automated and secure interactions on the blockchain.
5. Tokenization: Some dAPIs use blockchain tokens or cryptocurrencies as a means of payment for accessing services or data. These tokens are often required to pay for transactions and services on the network.
6. Open and Permissionless: dAPIs are typically open for anyone to use without the need for permission. They provide a level of openness and inclusivity that traditional APIs may lack.
Examples of dAPIs include decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms that provide financial services, decentralized identity systems, and various blockchain-based services like oracles that provide external data to smart contracts. These dAPIs enable developers to create and integrate decentralized applications (dApps) and services that leverage the capabilities of blockchain technology.
While dAPIs offer many advantages in terms of decentralization, security, and trustlessness, they also come with challenges, including scalability, interoperability between different blockchain networks, and the need to ensure data privacy and compliance with regulations. As the blockchain and decentralized technology space continues to evolve, dAPIs are expected to play a significant role in the development of decentralized applications and services.
All About Day Trading
Day trading is a popular trading strategy in the markets where traders aim to profit from short-term price movements within a single trading day. It involves buying and selling financial instruments, such as stocks, currencies, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, within the same trading day, with the goal of capitalizing on price volatility.
Here are some key aspects of day trading:
1. Short-Term Trading: Day traders open and close positions within the same trading day, and they rarely hold positions overnight. This approach is in contrast to swing trading or long-term investing.
2. Capital Requirements: Day traders typically need sufficient capital to trade comfortably, as they aim to take advantage of small price movements. This means having enough funds to cover potential losses and meet margin requirements.
3. Technical Analysis: Day traders often rely on technical analysis to make trading decisions. They use charts, indicators, and patterns to identify potential entry and exit points.
4. Volatility: Day traders seek out assets that exhibit significant price volatility, as these fluctuations provide opportunities for quick profits. Highly liquid assets are also preferred to ensure smooth order execution.
5. Risk Management: Effective risk management is crucial for day traders. This includes setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and using proper position sizing.
6. Trading Strategies: Day traders employ various trading strategies, such as scalping, momentum trading, breakout trading, and mean-reversion trading. Each strategy has its own set of rules and objectives.
7. Market Monitoring: Day traders need to closely monitor the markets during trading hours. They often use real-time news, level II quotes, and trading platforms to make informed decisions.
8. Psychological Discipline: Day trading can be emotionally taxing, as traders face the pressure of making quick decisions and managing the stress of financial risk. Maintaining discipline and emotional control is vital.
9. Regulations: Day trading is subject to regulatory rules, including pattern day trading rules in the United States that require traders to maintain a minimum account balance if they make more than a certain number of day trades in a rolling five-day period.
10. Tax Considerations: Tax implications can be significant for day traders, as short-term capital gains are typically taxed at a higher rate than long-term gains. Traders should be aware of tax laws in their jurisdiction.
11. Education and Practice: Novice day traders are encouraged to undergo education and practice on demo accounts before risking real capital. This helps build skills and gain experience without financial risk.
12. Record-Keeping: Maintaining detailed records of trades is important for assessing performance and tax reporting.
It's important to note that day trading is not suitable for everyone. It requires a solid understanding of the markets, a disciplined approach, access to real-time data, and sufficient capital. Many day traders experience both wins and losses, and it can be financially risky.
Additionally, it's recommended to research and understand the risks and potential rewards before engaging in day trading, and some traders may consider seeking advice or mentorship to improve their trading skills.
Prior cycles have seen ETH drawdown to depths of over -50% on a relative basis during the bear market recovery phase, with the current drawdown reaching -38%. Of particular interest is the duration of this trend, where ETH has depreciated against BTC for over 470-days thus far. This highlights an underlying trend between cycles, where BTC dominance increases over a longer duration in the hangover period after a bear market.
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What is Crypto Winter ?
"Crypto Winter" is a term used to describe a prolonged period of significant decline in the prices of cryptocurrencies, often accompanied by a decrease in trading volumes and overall market activity. It is analogous to the concept of a "bear market" in traditional financial markets. During a Crypto Winter, the prices of many cryptocurrencies experience a substantial drop, leading to a pessimistic sentiment among investors and traders.
Crypto Winters are typically characterized by several factors:
1. Price Decline: The most prominent feature of a Crypto Winter is a sustained and substantial decline in the prices of various cryptocurrencies. This decline can range from several months to over a year.
2. Reduced Market Activity: Trading volumes and liquidity in the crypto markets tend to decrease during a Crypto Winter. Investors become more cautious and may refrain from making new investments.
3. Negative Sentiment: Negative news and events in the crypto space, such as regulatory crackdowns, security breaches, or market manipulations, can contribute to a sense of uncertainty and pessimism among market participants.
4. Impact on Projects: Many cryptocurrency projects, especially those without robust fundamentals or strong use cases, may struggle to secure funding or maintain their operations during a Crypto Winter. Some projects may even face bankruptcy or suspension.
5. Investor Apathy: During a Crypto Winter, some retail investors and traders may lose interest in the market due to the prolonged downtrend. This can result in reduced participation and slower adoption of cryptocurrencies.
6. Industry Consolidation: The challenging market conditions of a Crypto Winter can lead to consolidation in the cryptocurrency industry, with weaker projects failing and stronger ones continuing to develop and innovate.
It's important to note that Crypto Winters are part of the natural market cycle of cryptocurrencies, and they have occurred multiple times since the inception of Bitcoin and other digital assets. While Crypto Winters can be difficult for market participants, they can also provide opportunities for long-term investors to accumulate assets at lower prices before the market enters a new bull cycle.
#TOTAL2 (Altcoin MarketCap) Update :
#TOTAL2 flipped above the major resistance zone and tested as major support too around $675B - $687B. Well, Index might again do a retest back to the, which lead in short-term correction in alts. Additionally, If weekly candle sustains above the zone then we can see some strong rally in the altcoin, which will push the market till nearly about $790B mark.
#DXY Update :
#DXY flipped to the upside, which impacted the alts and market a bit. Well, if the closing found above the 103.75, when we can expected it to reach till strong resistance area of 104.21 - 104.41, which will lead in a healthy correction in the market. More over, its forming a Head and Shoulder Pattern, which is a reversal pattern, so have an eye on it.
Dear members,
6 hours left until the biggest signal we have ever done on MEXC!
- Our target will be 5000%-7000% gains today. We will be using the MEXC exchange.
- We will be using the USDT pairing to buy, make sure you have USDT in your account to buy the coin.
- Hundreds of hundreds of traders will be buying at once, make sure you buy early before outsiders do.
- If you plan to use your whole balance, you can buy using 75% of your balance initially at market price, use the remaining of your balance to place buy orders!
- When you buy the coin and it's time to sell, never sell on the buy supports! Instead sell slowly in parts as the price goes up.
- After buying, we highly suggest to place buy orders below the market price as the price moves up.
Other Moving Averages in the List
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA):
The Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) is a sophisticated technical indicator that seeks to reduce lag and provide a more responsive moving average. It achieves this by applying two exponential moving averages (EMAs) to the price data. The primary goal is to capture price trends more efficiently by smoothing out fluctuations. DEMA is particularly useful for traders looking for early trend signals.
Hull Moving Average (HMA):
The Hull Moving Average (HMA) is a refined moving average that aims to minimize lag while maintaining smoothness. It employs weighted moving averages and a square root of the period to achieve this. The HMA reacts quickly to price changes, making it suitable for traders who want timely signals without sacrificing accuracy.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA):
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is a type of moving average that assigns different weights to data points. Unlike a simple moving average, WMA emphasizes certain points in the calculation. This weighting is achieved by assigning specific weights to each data point. WMA is more responsive to recent changes in the data, offering a nuanced view of trends.
These moving averages play vital roles in technical analysis, providing traders with tools to better understand and interpret price trends in financial markets.
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN still moving in a range building up liquidity over the Highs. Price yesterday swept out the liq. and given a close below it. Well, we already anticipated this in Daily TF. Price continue to do this until a shift in structure kicks in. Let's see it might ready to test the support around $35,500.
Here's the Analysis of #ICX :
#ICX is been flipped below the strong level of $0.244 - $0.250 which will act like strong resistance. Price also break below the Trendline, which giving bearish signs. Currently, you can look for short-selling over the retest, and alternatively, you can wait for a rejection over the zone on daily TF.
What is MACD ?
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (#MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that helps traders and analysts identify potential buy and sell signals in an asset's price chart.
1. MACD Line (Blue Line): This is the difference between the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 12-period EMA. The MACD line is more responsive to short-term price changes.
2. Signal Line (Orange Line): This is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line. It's used to generate trading signals.
3. Histogram: The histogram is the vertical bars that represent the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. It provides a visual representation of the MACD's divergence from the signal line.
XRP gave a flip below the strong support zone and kinda retesting now. Price also respecting the downtrend channel pattern and might continues to follow it. Daily gave closing and also forming some rejections, so better wait for the rejection of the resistance zone to go shorts.
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#FON/USDT Around 300k USDT in volume and peak of 16x. The amount of volume generated was more than enough to push this coin up over 5,000%. Unfortunately, we ran into an “iceberg” coin, which means this particular coin had an large number of regenerating sell orders, preventing us from executing a mega pump. Good thing is that our whales absorbed most of the selling pressure and our members able to able to sell their coin at massive profit during 2nd minute candle.
Overall, we can safely say that this signal was a huge success and that the upcoming one will be a long lasting pump and we will make sure to reach again +10000% gains on MEXC. We are receiving many messages of appreciation and we are glad many of you managed to turn a massive profit on this signal! Stay tuned for our next signal announcement!
Here's the Analysis of #XRP :
#XRP is been on bouncing between the strong support zone of $0.61 - $0.62 and Strong Resistance Zone of $0.68 - $0.69. Price also formed the channel/ bear flag formation, which will lead the next directional move. Incase of break and close below of the Support then you go for shorts over a retracement.
Here's the Analysis #NEO :
#NEO is been rejected strongly from the major resistance zone of $14.70 - $15.50 and made a consolidation below it. Price build a structural support zone and might gonna push into the strong support area of $11.40 - $11.55. Until then wait for the price to reach either end and Watch Daily TF to build up a support to trade the range.
Here's the Analysis of #ETC :
#ETC is been made a good rally with the alts-season and nearly sell-off from the major resistance zone of $22.29 - $23.29. Well, price kinda still maintaining the bullish market structure and might tap-in once again before moving down. so, wait for the support to from in 4H TF before executing buys here.
What is Daedalus Wallet ?
Daedalus Wallet is a cryptocurrency wallet designed specifically for the Cardano blockchain. Cardano is a blockchain platform that aims to provide a secure and scalable infrastructure for the development of decentralized applications (dApps) and smart contracts. Daedalus Wallet is the official wallet for storing and managing ADA, the native cryptocurrency of the Cardano network.
Key features of the Daedalus Wallet include:
1. Security: Daedalus is designed with a focus on security, implementing advanced cryptographic techniques to protect users' private keys and funds.
2. Full Node: Daedalus operates as a full node, meaning it downloads and validates the entire Cardano blockchain. This enhances security and decentralization but requires significant disk space and processing power.
3. User Interface: The wallet provides a user-friendly interface for users to send, receive, and manage their ADA holdings. It also includes features for delegation and staking.
4. Staking: Cardano uses a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm, and Daedalus allows users to participate in staking by delegating their ADA to stake pools. Staking allows users to earn additional ADA as a reward for supporting the network.
5. Decentralization: Daedalus contributes to the overall decentralization of the Cardano network by providing users with the ability to run their own full node.
It's important to note that the information provided here is based on my knowledge as of January 2022, and there may have been updates or changes to Daedalus Wallet or the Cardano ecosystem since then.
#TOTAL2 (Altcoin MarketCap) Update :
#TOTAL2 gave a strong breakout over the consolidation by which we have seen strong impact over the market. Index flipped above the strong Resistance zone of $608B - $616B. It made a retest of the zone and might continue up also, another thing can be it can turn into a fakeout for a potential reversal in the market.
The Long-Term Holders (LTHs) remain unfazed by the recent market rally, as their total holdings have reached a new all-time high at 14.899 million BTC. This steady increase in holdings indicates that a significant amount of supply has crossed the 155-day holding threshold without being spent.
Around 29.6% of LTH supply is currently held at a loss, which is historically high considering the strong market uptrend seen since the 2022 lows. This situation is reminiscent of the late 2015 and early 2019 periods, as well as the March 2020 bottom.
This suggests that the LTH cohort may be more resolute and less inclined to sell compared to previous market cycles.