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What is #MVRV-Z Score ?
MVRV Z-Score is a bitcoin chart that uses blockchain analysis to identify periods where Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued relative to its 'fair value'.
It uses three metrics:
1. Market Value (black line): The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
2. Realised Value (blue line): Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realised Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
In doing so, it strips out the short term market sentiment that we have within the Market Value metric. It can therefore be seen as a more 'true' long term measure of Bitcoin value which Market Value moves above and below depending on the market sentiment at the time.
3. Z-score (orange line): A standard deviation test that pulls out the extremes in the data between market value and realised value.
How It Can Be Used
The MVRV Z-score has historically been very effective in identifying periods where market value is moving unusually high above realised value. These periods are highlighted by the z-score (orange line) entering the pink box and indicates the top of market cycles. It has been able to pick the market high of each cycle to within two weeks.
It also shows when market value is far below realised value, highlighted by z-score entering the green box. Buying Bitcoin during these periods has historically produced outsized returns.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Using This Tool
MVRV Z-Score bitcoin chart is useful for predicting Bitcoin price at the extremes of market conditions. It is able to forecast where Bitcoin price may need to pull back when MVRV Z-score enters the upper red band, and also when $BTC price may rally after spending time in the lower green band.
Historically it has picked major Bitcoin price highs to within 2 weeks.
#BTC.D UPDATE :
#itcoin Dominance is once again made a lower push, which is good for the altseason. This time, #BTC made a slightly dump with the market, so the move was not that aggressive. Currently, index is retesting the zone, so as soon as #BTC stable down or move up, we can expect strong moving in altcoin real quick. Hodl the positions tightly, if have any bottom one.
Here's the Analysis of #ETHFI :
#ETHFI moving from levels to levels and currently, testing the strong support zone of $4.45 - $4.61 and market looks good for going buys from here. The structure looks bearish so, use lower risk at this point.
What Is the Scaling Problem?
The scaling problem refers to the limitations of a blockchain’s transaction throughput, which ultimately affect the speed and costs of transactions. The scaling problem is tied to how a decentralized network handles blocks of transactions, which depend on factors such as its block size and block time, which is the time it takes to create a new block. This problem became evident after users of Bitcoin, the first blockchain network, experienced delays in transaction settlements and increases in fees whenever usage of the network spikes.
In 2015, the Bitcoin blockchain limited its block size to one megabyte (MB), which was later increased to 2 MB. While the increase in block size slightly alleviated Bitcoin’s scaling problem, many developers cautioned against the types of changes that could potentially make the protocol centralized. This is because every transaction carries data, which means that more transactions also means more data per block, which would ultimately result in requiring miners to have massive disk spaces in order to store a copy of the full Bitcoin blockchain. The Bitcoin community ended up deciding against greatly increasing block size, as it traded decentralization for scalability, which was considered the wrong approach by many.
Therefore, solving the scaling problem has become an uphill task, taking years of time and effort. The scaling problem is exacerbated by the fact that scaling a blockchain network requires proper consensus and coordination between the different parties involved such as the developers, miners and community. However, months of moving back and forth between these groups can still end in disagreements. In such a case, the process may lead to a hard fork where one team activates the upgrade and branches off the main network.
While unscaled blockchains can stay as they are, they will face detrimental consequences like a continuous decrease of transaction speed and increase in costs, as well users leaving for a more scalable network. This has a ripple effect as a lack of users is likely to discourage developers, businesses, miners/stakers from moving forward.
#GOLD UPDATE :
#GOLD broke below the support area and retraced back to the zone as resistance now. Price kinda formed a bear flag and expected to more dump is expected with session open. Daily TF looks bearish to this might play good till support around $2308.
Here's the Analysis of #W :
#W is a recently got listed in Binance project and moving over the major support area of $0.52 - $0.54. The price looks in a huge consoldiation range and moving very correctively. Range trading looks good from here towards the resistance around $0.75 - $0.77.
More than $150M+ Liquidated with the $3,000 dump in #BTC.
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Here's the Analysis of #LPT :
#LPT moving nearby the Major Resistance Area of $21.50 - $22.15 and moving within the uptrend channel pattern. Currently, price testing the channel as support and expected a bounce from here, so you can plan the setup as target $26.00 or $27.20 area.
In the run-up to Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) on 14-March, there was a noticeable increase in speculative activity. Specifically, capital accumulation has been observed among short-term holders, with the USD wealth held withing coins moved within the last 6 months approaching $240B, near ATHs.
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#BTC made its weekly closing with a Strong bullish body and also a big rejection wick. The good point is price Weekly candle sustaining above the zone. Normally, price right now testing the resistance in LTF H4 and hodling. Looks like price might take a deep retest again back to support areas around nearby $67,000.
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Here's the Analysis of #ADA :
#ADA kept on bouncing from the major support zone of $0.41 - $0.42 and moving within the consolidation range below the Key Resistance Area of $0.54 - $0.55. The range itself huge enough to trade the range, so try to take the opportunity and Buy/Sell only after the breakout.
Accessing the STH Cost Basis for Ethereum as well, which has provided support on several occasions in this uptrend already. Ethereum's STH-MVRV is trading at a very slight premium at the moment, which could suggest that spot prices are very close to the cost basis of recent buyers, who may panic should the market experience downside volatility.
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#BITCOIN WEEKLY TF UPDATE :
#BITCOIN on Weekly TF, gave a shallow closing over the resistance area. Price made a aggressive push to the upside, and hit the daily resistance area. Its getting a rejection and might have a retracement by next week.
What Is Rough Consensus ?
Rough consensus, in its bare essence, refers to a method of decision-making that doesn't necessarily require unanimity. Instead, it allows to strike a balance, offering a decision that the majority agrees with, while not dismissing the views of the minority. In our increasingly connected and participatory world, this approach to decision-making has become even more critical.
Contrasting this with complete consensus, which demands total agreement, rough consensus is more about gauging the general trend of opinions. This subtle yet significant difference makes it a more practical and feasible approach in larger groups or complex systems, like blockchain governance, where achieving total unanimity is almost a Sisyphean task.
Deciphering Rough Consensus in the Blockchain & Cryptocurrency Sphere
In blockchain governance, rough consensus holds a pivotal role. The decentralization principle of blockchain technology necessitates a democratic way to make collective decisions. That's where rough consensus comes into play.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, two of the biggest cryptocurrencies, adopt this method of governance. In these systems, changes are proposed, and participants are allowed to vote by expressing their support or opposition. Unlike majority rule, where a simple 51% can dictate the outcome, rough consensus attempts to reconcile differing views and find a solution that, while not perfect, is acceptable to the majority.
Of course, there are other consensus mechanisms in the world of blockchain, like Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake. But these mechanisms serve a different purpose. They are technical mechanisms used to validate transactions and create new blocks, maintaining the blockchain's integrity and security. In contrast, rough consensus is a socio-political method for decision-making within the blockchain community.
The MVRV Z-Score (with a 90 data point look-back period) for the Day Trader cohort. We can see this metric consistently flips from high to low values as a result of the intraday volatility of price, which then impacts the unrealized profit/loss held by this cohort.
Since we are looking for seller exhaustion signals during a correction, we isolate points when the MVRV Z-Score trades more than -1σ below the mean. These are points of heightened unrealized loss, and points of statistically significant pressure placed upon Day Traders.
#BTC moved a bit lower and broken the trendline too. Now its once again market looks like it gonna go lower towards the support zone nearly $66,000 mark. Overall market looks consolidating so, by next week we can expect something.
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$TWIF is set to launch on #DigiFinex at 10:00 UTC, June 3rd! Listing price will be $0.04, as per DigiFinex's official tweet🔥: https://x.com/digifinex/status/1795777359280525677?s=46
This means we are getting $TWIF at very cheap price currently. Grab it and be a early bird of this massive journey🚀
Tier1 exchange listing is also in pipeline as per their official tweet, which means this will surely skyrocket in the next few days.
PancakeSwap buy link: https://pancakeswap.finance/swap?outputCurrency=0x62760e76DCe6b500349EC5F6119228d047913350
Uniswap buy link: https://app.uniswap.org/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x62760e76DCe6b500349EC5F6119228d047913350
MEXC buy link : https://www.mexc.com/exchange/TWIF_USDT
The Spent Volume in Profit for LTHs, we can see that the cohort of BTC holders who have held for between 6 months and 2 years increased their divestment during the ATH rally. Clearly we can see what's happening on-chain data.
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#BTC didn't moved a lot and consolidating in Daily TF as candles printing side by side itself. Price tapped into the trendline and trying to rid of it. Price is not clear enough so better wait for the breakout of the range.
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#KEY continue the push after a good consolidation and high of $0.008717, which is 30.2% in profit. Secure more profits here.
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The Long-Term Holders, especially those in the 2 to 3-year cohort, have shown a significant decline. Some coins matured into the 3 to 5-year age band, while others were sold for profit. This divestment, influenced by the approval of ETFs, peaked in February 2024 as the market rallied, just a month before BTC reached its $73k ATH. Historically, Long-Term Holders take profits during strong demand periods.
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#BTC touched $70,000, gone a bit above, swept the liquidity and made a lower break. That's a clean trap move. Right now, price is about to test the trendline and a possible bounce can come. Otherwise, we've a support at $65,000.
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#ENJ forming a small triangle pattern and now trying to break below the uptrend channel pattern. Well, market is somewhere bullish now, so this can turn into the fakeout. Also, there's a resistance line above, which can give the buy opportunity for buys towards the next resistance area.
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💥Exciting news, dear members! In response to Massive demand from our community, we're thrilled to announce that our next 50X-100X Mega Pump Signal will be hosted at MEXC. Get ready to ride the wave of opportunity with us💥
Date: 2-June-2024 Sunday
Time: 4 PM GMT
Pairing: USDT
Exchange: MEXC
Advantage: Free For All
The approval of the ETH ETF marks a significant bullish signal for altcoins. Furthermore, the rejection of BTC dominance from the major resistance zone provides strong bullish momentum for altcoins. Our previous MEXC Mega pump signal #JET (+10600%) was a tremendous success, and this upcoming move has the potential to make history after a considerable time.
Get ready for the biggest event in our group's history! we are targeting 50X-100X gains. This one is set to outshine all our past successes in terms of percentage gain as More than 1Million active participants are ready to take advantage of this Mega event! Our team is continuously scanning all promising coins available in the market and we've got some absolute gems💎 which are absolutely ready to make waves in the market which you had never witnessed till now🚀🚀
Stay tuned for upcoming instructions to ensure all our members are geared up for MEXC. Get prepared for the pump of a lifetime✌️
What Is Ryuk Ransomware?
Ryuk ransomware is a ransomware attack. The Ryuk ransomware variant was originally discovered in August 2018 and since then it has managed to grow in visibility in order to become one of the most known as well as costliest ransomware variants of our time. This is due to the fact that, unlike early variations such as WannaCry, Ryuk is designed to be targeted. The design of this malware means that each of the victims has to receive the individual attention of the cybercriminals operating the malware. Ryuk is used in many targeted campaigns that have highly tailored infection vectors as well as high ransom demands.
Discussing Ryuk even further, the ransomware focuses on quality over quantity when it comes to picking out its victims. A Ryuk infection starts with a targeted attack to infect an intended victim, which follows file encryption as well as an extremely large ransom demand by the Ryuk ransomware.
When we discuss targeted means, these include the use of tailored spear-phishing emails as well as the exploitation of compromised credentials that are used to remotely access systems through a Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP).
A spear phishing email can carry Ryuk directly or be one of the first in a series of infections. Ryuk then uses a combination of encryption algorithms, such as an asymmetric algorithm known as AES-256 as well as an asymmetric algorithm known as RSA 4096. This means that Ryuk essentially encrypts a file with the symmetric algorithm and includes a copy of the symmetric encryption key encrypted with the RSA public key. When the victim pays for the ransom, the Ryuk operator will provide a copy of the corresponding RSA private key, which enables decryption for the symmetric encryption key where it is used on the encrypted files.
#DXY UPDATE :
#DXY moved very correctively to the upside and retested the resistance again. Index formed the resistance now, and expected the drop from here. A Drop will lead in good market movement to the upside. Alternatively, A Daily Candle Closure, will lead the good correction in the market.
Here's the Analysis of #ENJ :
#ENJ moving off from the strong support zone of $0.25 - $0.26 and broke the resistance line too. Price moving through the uptrend channel pattern and expected to tap into the Major Resistance Area of $0.40 - $0.41. You can trade the move till major level.
https://x.com/MEXC_Official/status/1794350736530362470
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