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Bitcoin’s recent 13% decline has pushed the price well below the True Market Mean ($77.8k), a key level that often separates bull and bear market conditions. At around $67k, Bitcoin is now trading between the True Market Mean and the Realized Price ($53.9k), reinforcing the current bearish market structure.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($76.4k) has also fallen below the True Market Mean, a pattern last seen in early 2022. This suggests newer investors are buying at lower prices, reflecting weaker market sentiment and increasing pressure on investor confidence.
#US30 UPDATE:
#US30 is struggling to move higher and is moving sideways after hitting new all-time highs. The index has retraced slightly and is expected to drop to the support area around 49,600. Looking at the momentum, if the price sustains above the 50,000 mark, we can expect an all-time high this week.
Implied volatility across all strikes is now sitting near multi-year lows—even below summer 2023 levels 📉🔴. Compression is no longer isolated to short-dated maturities but is visible across the full volatility surface 💪.
The options market is pricing in very little expectation of large directional moves, with subdued positioning and hedging demand now broad-based ⚡️🎯👀.
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE:
#BITCOIN dropped strongly last week and reached the key support area already drawn. Price has already reacted from there, so we have to wait for some sort of reversal to happen. It is likely to have a liquidity sweep lower before anything happens.
#SpotETF flows flipping sharply negative over the last two weeks as #BTC rolled over from low $80Ks 📉🔴. Strong April–May inflow regime now reversing — institutional appetite cooling near local highs 💪.
Loss of sustained #ETF bid removes key structural support — until inflows stabilize, meaningful breakout above current range remains difficult ⚡️🎯👀
Binance Will Delist COS, D, HIGH, MBOX on 2026-06-19
Based on our most recent reviews, we have decided to delist and cease trading on all spot trading pairs for the following token(s) at 2026-06-19 03:00 (UTC):
- Contentos (COS)
- Dar Open Network (D)
- Highstreet (HIGH)
- MOBOX (MBOX)
👉🏻 Learn more here
#STH Net Realized P&L recovered from -0.44% at February lows to briefly positive, before fading back to -0.02% in mid-May — neatly mapping the rally and subsequent consolidation 📉🔴.
Directional improvement is constructive but magnitude falls short of levels needed for sustained expansion beyond #TrueMarketMean. Recovery into positive territory = pre-bull transition. Reversal toward February lows = bear market continuation 💪⚡️🎯👀
#BTC reacted but broke the major support, turning it into a major resistance area, which also saw a retest. Price wiped minor liquidity from the lows and is expected to drip further towards the next major support area around $58,200 - $59,500.
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#GOLD had a clean drop of 3% after the $4500 break and saw a strong rejection from support drawn around $4370–$4380. It is now forming a no-trade zone as an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern develops, so let it complete.
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#BTC is dropping hard as mentioned, now approaching the Major Support Zone around $64,800 - $66,000. There is nothing to do as of now; just hold the short positions as mentioned previously.
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#US30 UPDATE:
#US30 failed to test the support zone and now flipped the resistance again, making new ALL TIME HIGHS. Still looking bullish and strong, taking short-term buys in #NYSE open, targeting the #ATH again.
Here is the analysis of #CHZ:
#CHZ is continuing the Head and Shoulders pattern and has broken the support channel. It is now approaching the strong support area around $0.028–$0.030. Taking buys directly would be risky; instead, take short sells after a break below.
#ETH is going as per the plan and gave another shot down, printing a new lower low. Price is at an intermediate support area; nothing is clean as of now. Another lower is on the way; only hold the short positions.
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#TOTAL UPDATE:
#TOTAL is moving as expected. We have been indicating a bearish market for the past week following the fake-out. Now we can see the impact, as we are currently at a key support area around $2.4T, where a reversal could occur.
30D SMA of #RealizedPnL spiked from February low of 0.4 to 1.8 — sharp shift in spending behavior as price recovered 📈🔴. However rising profit-taking overwhelming demand, capping momentum 💪.
Sustained stabilization above 2.0 over multiple weeks would signal genuine buy-side conviction capable of absorbing distribution pressure ⚡️🎯👀
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. 🚀📈
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#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE:
#BTC experienced a sharp sell-off this week, reaching all the way down to the key support area. The price rejected the zone, and we expect it to hold. However, due to the sharp downward momentum, the chances of a reversal are very low, so stay away from early longs.
#TOTAL UPDATE:
#TOTAL broke through the zone and experienced a sharp outflow of money from the market. The index reached the strong support area and is attempting to hold it. No risk for buying until a reversal confirmation appears on the chart.
#CHZ had a close below as expected and dropped further. Price moved 13.2% in profits, with more expected to come. Play it accordingly with stops and profit taking.
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#BTC sustaining below the key area with nothing bullish for market prices. $60,000 is the ideal and psychological area for a bounce and potential reversal.
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#BTC.D UPDATE:
#BTC.D experienced a sharp drop, a clean downward move. The index is now in the middle of the range and is expected to reach the major support zone at 56.7% - 56.9%. #BTC also drops, so alts hit price harder and are expected to dip until major support. If #BTC remains stable, then taking longs for scalps would be healthy.
Latest data points to a spot-driven pullback — #SpotCVD weakening far more aggressively than #FuturesCVD while Open Interest eased only modestly 📉🔴. Recent downside driven by sustained spot selling rather than aggressive short positioning 💪.
Funding rates staying positive and firming again — leveraged longs still paying to hold exposure into weakness. Elevated long positioning alongside softening spot demand typically resolves through renewed spot buying or a full derivatives reset ⚡️🎯👀
#BTC kept dropping and reached the major support zone as drawn and was predicted earlier. It did not react off from the Major Support Zone; a potential reversal is looking not strong enough until strong confirmation.
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📊 #OrderFlow data suggests the recent #Bitcoin pullback is mainly being driven by #spot selling. #Futures #OpenInterest has only eased slightly and remains elevated, while #SpotCVD has weakened much more than #FuturesCVD, showing sellers are more active in the spot market than shorts in derivatives.
📈 #FundingRates support this view. Despite the price decline, funding has stayed positive and is starting to rise again, meaning leveraged longs are still paying to hold positions through the weakness.
⚖️ Overall, the market remains heavily positioned on the long side while #spot demand continues to soften. This imbalance will likely be resolved by either fresh #Bitcoin buying returning or a larger #derivatives reset to clear excess leverage. 🚀📉
#BTC WEEKLY TF UPDATE:
#BTC had a strong candle close past week irrespective of candle rejection. Price gave the shallow candle close below the support area, and this week's bias is still bearish, so lower lows are on the way. Short-sells can be held with breakeven stops.
#BTC is making lower lows and lower highs on daily timeframes. There is currently no strength, and I expect a test of the lower support area. The price action will determine the next move.
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Price slipping below #TrueMarketMean has flipped the 30D accumulation cohort underwater — cost basis at $78.2K now acting as #Resistance rather than support 📉🔴.
Below spot, 1M–3M holder cost basis at $71.4K represents the most probable near-term #Support — this cohort retaining thin profit margins with growing incentive to protect gains ⚡️🎯👀
#BITCOIN DAILY TF UPDATE:
#BITCOIN has declined for another full week and is nearing a key support level. Price remains weak at this point and could drop further toward the $72,000 area.
#SAGA went very well after the call, moving around 33.5% in profits. The price nearly reached resistance but dropped sharply. The move was sufficient for booking profits, and I hope you took a major partial position with that jump.
Now, short-selling can be very profitable. Act accordingly.