Uncertainty over rate cut size: The market’s uncertainty between a 25 or 50 basis point cut could lead to volatility.
• A rate cut of 25 to 75 bps is generally bullish, but:
• 25 bps suggests a soft landing.
• 50 bps raises concerns.
• 75 bps may indicate that economic statistics have not been strong recently.
Volatility is expected in the short term, especially in Q4 before the election, but the outlook is bullish over a longer time frame.
Expecting a rate cut to get us back to the $60-$65K zone max.
$SEI is experiencing more volatility and pressure than $SUI. The $0.2660 level should be key for the lower time frame. If it pushes too hard, I may reduce a small percentage of the current position to maintain liquidity.
Читать полностью…FOMC
The next meeting is expected to provide Americans with an update on the federal funds rate. The Fed has held it steady since July 2023, following a series of rate hikes to temper rising inflation. However, many experts believe the Fed will decide to cut its target rate in the September meeting.
In it a previous meeting, the committee noted that while inflation has eased over the past year, it still remains elevated, and progress toward the committee’s target of 2% has slowed.
Some are predicting similarities between the first rate cut in September 2007 and September 2024. What happened in the year following that?
Читать полностью…$SEI position getting paid $6 from the funding rate (from short sellers) in a day should be a great sign.
Читать полностью…$SOL is still ranging despite the bull market taking over at the moment. If it can get back to the $125-$130 range, it would be good to maintain a higher low.
Читать полностью…Put SL+ on $SEI, so its profit booked. Lets see what is next for public trading after SEI SL+ triggered.
Читать полностью…Get paid $4 today. If this position remains open at this price, in 10 days this position could earn around $40-$60 from the funding rate rebate. $SEI
Shorters are gonna get wiped soon; bet. Need the trigger.
If retail sales data released before the FOMC meeting is weaker than expected, it could push the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, potentially triggering market downturns if investors had anticipated aggressive easing.
Additionally, the influence of election timing on FOMC decisions may introduce political uncertainty, leading investors to fear that the Fed’s policies could be politically motivated, which could also negatively affect market sentiment.
Wiped out 1 week of gains, going from $200 in floating profits to -$600 in floating losses.
The chart looks like it’s resetting back to the low, but on the lower time frame, it’s forming a head and shoulders pattern, which isn’t ideal for long positions, especially those with negative floating positions.
The higher time frame doesn’t show much yet, as we’re still waiting on the FOMC sentiment over the next 2 days. The market dumping before the FOMC should have alerted us to pay attention.
On Friday, we also have the Bank of Japan’s rate decision coming up.
Maintaining a range of $50K - $60K is somewhat neutral. We might have dropped below $50K if there hadn’t been a recent push back to $60K. So, we still have a positive view until there’s a reason not to. $BTC
Volatility may kick in soon..
In September 2007, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2001, marking the beginning of the response to the looming financial crisis. What followed was a series of further rate cuts as the global economy spiraled into the 2008 financial crisis, also known as the Great Recession. The crisis led to massive economic downturns worldwide, including stock market crashes, housing market collapses, and widespread unemployment.
Now, with some drawing parallels between 2007 and 2024, there’s speculation that the 2024 rate cut could signal a response to potential economic challenges ahead, though not necessarily a repeat of the 2008 crisis. Economic conditions, debt levels, and inflation dynamics in 2024 are vastly different, but it’s worth watching how markets react.
A lot of longs got rekt recently, while the funding rate indicates high short sellers paying long buyers. Negative display with bold green. No wonder. We’ll see in 2 days.
Читать полностью…Despite the recent news, the market is still stable at the moment. Indodax hack only in small amounts compare to any top 100 marketcaps.
Читать полностью…The rebound is pretty nice. The expected $BTC range is still holding. $SEI is still down, but slightly better.
$TON is also good looking so far.
See you tomorrow.