The US dollar spills to 102.35, the best weekly performance for the dollar since mid-September 2022. The labor market in America shattered expectations by creating 254K new jobs in September, indicating that the economy is growing even in the current difficult conditions...
Against this backdrop, the Fed can now breathe a sigh of relief and not resort (as it did last time) to a less fanciful 0.25% interest rate cut. Instead, Fed officials may continue cutting rates at a slower pace given that both of their mandates - inflation and employment - are performing well
The prospect of a slower rate-cutting campaign means that interest rates will remain relatively attractive to holders of the dollar and dollar-linked assets (mainly bonds). In this light, the U.S. currency may retain its ability to attract new capital inflows from both locals and foreigners. At the same time, the escalating conflict in the Middle East is pushing forex traders to the seeming safety of the dollar
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💡 Ideas For USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵
📈 Attempting a trend change. Retest 149.0
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USDJPY is testing range resistance in the rally phase caused by Friday's news - strong NFP report. The fundamental backdrop within the short-to-medium term is set...
From the opening of the session a small correction is forming, the aim of which may be a retest of the support or imbalance zone and consolidation of energy before a further breakout. The market structure is locally bullish on the background of the dollar growth. The Japanese authorities are still silent about their actions to strengthen the national currency (either they think about it or don't think about it :) ), so traders are increasing JPY sales in order to buy USD.
The first retest of the resistance at 149.4 failed (bounce). Emphasis on 0.5 fibo or 147.2 support from which the growth may resume...
Resistance levels: 147.38
Support levels: 147.5, 147.2, 146.15
On the chart there are preconditions for the change of the local trend to a bullish one, the fundamental background is favorable for this. If the bulls will keep the defense above the support and continue to test the resistance with a breakdown target, then in the short-term-senior perspective we can catch the forging of the impulse to 152.0.
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Briefly on GOLD #XAUUSD:
The first week, in the last 4, closes bearish and below the close of the previous bar. Either the selling is intensifying (which is more logical) or the buyer has overheated and needs to cool down.
The price closes in the range of 2670 - 2630. There are no reasons for the price to leave the range, but most likely, in the near future, all attempts to go up will be aggressively sold off against the outflows of funds (reasons - the US economy, indicating strengthening).
The dollar continues after a very strong NFP report.
On H1 (XAUUSD), the price is consolidating below the key support line (rising) and below the conglomerate SMA, which generally indicates market weakness (a cross is forming).
There will most likely be an attempt to rise and retest the resistance, but the market may move quite quickly into a phase of testing supports and liquidity zones from below.
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Why was yesterday's report both predictable and unpredictable.....
U.S. job growth in September didn't just accelerate, it reached exorbitant heights. U.S. employers hired 254,000 new employees, exceeding the consensus forecast of 145,000 new jobs and well above the August figure. The monster jobs report took everyone by surprise after months of slowing job growth raised fears of recession and prompted the Fed to step on the gas pedal by cutting interest rates by 50 bps last month.
The good news was quickly picked up by markets, leading to a joyous rally around the world. The S&P 500 index rose 0.7% in the first minutes of the session, while the technology index Nasdaq Composite soared more than 1.1%. The U.S. dollar knocked out its forex rivals, lifting its index to 102.70, marking the fifth straight day of gains....
The solid payrolls report probably softened attitudes in the halls of the Federal Reserve. Central bankers may now be more confident about the economy and may decide to go for the occasional quarter-point interest rate cut when they meet next month. Until then, traders have a bunch of other important reports to read, such as the Consumer Price Index (inflation), which is high on the Fed's to-do list - policymakers have a dual mandate to maximize employment and keep inflation at 2% per year
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❗️ NFP and the unemployment rate ahead!
In 30 minutes!!!
An upside surprise on the key NFP and wage inflation data could strengthen bets on a 0.25% Fed rate cut in November, adding further measures to the US Dollar's recovery at the expense of other assets...
Conversely, a strong disappointment could revive expectations that the Fed will opt for an excessive rate cut at its next meeting, which would collapse the US Dollar across the board. The market will react accordingly
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Ahead of NonFarm Payrolls. What to expect from gold?
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GOLD is in consolidation with gradually narrowing local extrema. NonFarm Payrolls are ahead and traders are getting nervous about further movement. Up for renewal of highs or a long-awaited correction?
Before NFP, traders resorted to adjusting positions, taking profits on the US dollar rally (reasons: strong employment and PMI data from ISM). The encouraging data weakened bets on an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed. However, the decline in gold prices remains subdued due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The future direction of the gold price will be determined by the upcoming US employment data. Gold could move into a correction if NFP shows an upside surprise, which would impact the USD rally and strengthen bets for a 0.25% Fed rate cut in November. Conversely...
Resistance levels: 2665, 2673, 2685
Support levels: 2653, SMA 200 & 50, 2640
The SMAs are narrowing, which could also be a hint of a possible correction (if there is a crossover). Technically gold is ready for a correction, but fundamentally, unpredictable news may affect further growth. Analysts are inclined to the beginning of correction on the background of strong economic data of the first half of the week
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The dollar has been strengthening for a week against major currencies
Ahead of important news - NonFarm Payrolls. Analysts bet on continued growth of the dollar index...
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And so. The scheme is simple I share content, and from your side support 😉
I look forward to your likes and comments 🙃
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/Xsp2KLIh-GOLD-Price-breaks-support-Panic-and-news/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WIFUSDT/d6LM8xuf-WIFUSDT-A-reversal-set-up-Breakdown-2-100/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/zd8SPbQP-EURUSD-The-triple-top-is-in-the-1-1200-zone-Falling/
#USDJPY gained new momentum on Wednesday after a conversation between Japan's new Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of Japan. Japan is not yet ready for another interest rate hike, Shigeru told a press conference after the meeting, trying to reassure the country that monetary policy will remain soft and accommodative until the economy allows for another rate hike.
“I don't believe we are in an environment that will require us to raise interest rates further,” Ishiba said in his most public statement yet on the fate of interest rates in Japan. Ishiba had previously - shortly before he took the top post - enjoyed a reputation as a hawk who leaned in favor of raising rates. The Bank of Japan's rate-setting meeting is scheduled for October 30-31
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💡 Ideas For #WIFUSDT 💰
📈 A reversal set-up. Breakdown 2.100
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WIF changes the market structure to bearish. Traders are moving into the phase of profit-taking after the rally. The market is not ready to go up yet
The rally stops at the strong resistance zone at 2.639. A local false breakdown is formed relative to the extreme upward movement, indicating that buyers are not ready yet and sellers have come to the market (profit-taking). At the moment the market is testing 2.100 and is ready to break this support. A pullback is possible before breaking down.
BUT, if the buyers now enter this zone and consolidate below 2.100, the prospect of further decline will come very quickly.
Resistance levels: 2.15, 2.2
Support levels: 2.100, 1.96. 1.95
A breakdown and consolidation below 2.100 will activate strong selling amid a general bear market. If the price further enters the flat channel, it may cause a decline to 1.45
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Have you seen Bitcoin #BTC ?
Down from 66500 to 60K. A drop of $6500!
I prepared you for this, so in general the situation was clear to us.
The point is that the price is subject to manipulation on the background of political and geopolitical nuances and buyers do not have much faith in further growth, as the market stands still (within the range) and there were no deep corrections.
We continue to watch. Judging by the current behavior, we can conclude that the fall will continue....
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#DXY got a boost to the upside after global markets were jolted by heightened military tensions. In the Middle East, Iran fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel hours after an Israeli ground operation in Lebanon. One step away from global war...
In this context, the U.S. dollar became a natural draw for risk-seeking traders. The U.S. dollar index jumped about half a percent on Tuesday and remained on a good run on Wednesday, floating near 101.30 and aiming for a three-day winning streak
And the situation does not look rosy. Israel has vowed to respond to Iran's missile attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Islamic Republic will “pay” after firing some 180 rockets at key targets in Israel. As fears of all-out war between the two superpowers grow, market volatility can be sharp, sudden and unexpected.
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Consolidation below the SMA. What was the impact of NFP?
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GOLD is consolidating below previously crossed SMA50 & 200 after Friday's shakeout. A surprising NPF shook up the market. The dollar is rallying while gold is drawing downside resistance...
The main reason for a possible decline in gold prices is the weakening expectations of a 0.5% Fed interest rate cut in November. A very strong NFP report all but eliminated the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in November. The reading beat market expectations of 140K by a wide margin. Nevertheless, the price of gold managed to resist a corrective decline thanks to the ongoing geopolitical risks associated with the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Traders are now looking forward to the upcoming Fed speech.
Gold is technically in the sideways range of 2685 - 2623. There is no actual direction, so you can trade between buy and sell levels...
Resistance levels: SMA, 2661, 2673
Support levels: 2639, 2631, 2623
Bears are likely to exert maximum strength in the resistance zone, the market may react by declining to the liquidity zones. There is a high enough probability of formation of a false breakout of resistance before further decline
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Brief overview and determination of FOREX direction
#EURUSD 🇪🇺/🇺🇸 - SHORT 📉
A strong support is outlined. A break of 1.0948 will strengthen the downward movement. A strong dollar is bad for the euro.
#GBPUSD 🇬🇧/🇺🇸 - SHORT 📉
Emphasis on the low of Thursday's bar. The retest and break of this zone may trigger the impulse downwards... Also focus on 1.300
#NZDUSD 🇳🇿/🇺🇸 - SHORT 📉
On Monday, the fall to 0.612-0.61 may continue. And after a small rebound or correction, the price may head towards 0.597
#AUDUSD 🇦🇺/🇺🇸 - SHORT 📉
Broke a strong level. Friday's candle closed very well. A break of Friday's low will strengthen the downward movement...
#USDJPY 🇺🇸/🇯🇵 - LONG 📈
Structure breakdown and movement to retest 149.4. Possible rebound before further breakout and growth to 151.9.
#USDCAD 🇺🇸/🇨🇦 - LONG 📈
We expect the continuation of growth to 1.362. There may be a slight correction on Monday
#USDCHF 🇺🇸/🇨🇭 - LONG 📈
After a small correction we should expect a continuation of growth to 0.863 - 0.875
#DXY 💲 (Dollar) - LONG 📈
The dollar continues to rally. Strong NFP report allows to form a short-medium term strategy
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💡 Ideas For #BTCUSD 🪙
📈 The flirtation with MA-200 ended in failure. To 52K?
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BTC failed in its attempt to break the daily MA-200 and 64-65K resistance. A retest of the previously broken range boundary and strong liquidity zone amid a global descending channel is forming. The crowd was in the majority, but...
On W1 the promising direction of the current trend is clearly visible. The price tested the upper boundary of the channel, but the bears pushed us down rather aggressively, making us realize that there is nothing to do in the zone above 65K yet.
One of the reasons for the btc drop we caught earlier: 94% of all BTC holders are now in profit. Dealers noted high activity in buying call options on BTC with a strike of $75000. There were also high sales of puts.
Trick question: How to make money if the crowd is buying?
Resistance levels: 62745, 64955
Support levels: 60K, 59250, 57700
A correction after the impulse is forming and the price may test the imbalance and liquidation zone. Having broken 62342 area earlier, we entered the panic zone, where sellers managed to grab a piece before further failure at 60K. Before the further fall, the price may go after these lucky sellers before the asset goes after the buyers on the background of the general trend. This would be considered a retest after breaking the structure. I do not see any reasons for growth beyond 64-65K at the moment, I am interested in the zone of 60K, 57K, 55K, 52K.
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Hi friends, now watching the markets after yesterday's news..... Yesterday's high volatility spoiled the overall picture a bit, as the market behaved a bit unpredictably (market reaction to the news)
I have some ideas, but I will post them after a while.
Have a great time 🙂
US - NON-FARM PAYROLLS (September) = 254,000 (expected 147,000)
US - Unemployment (September) = 4.1% (expected 4.2%)
👏👏
#EURUSD extended its losses for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday and opened trading lower on Friday. Today the non-farm payrolls report for September will be released. This indicator is usually associated with increased volatility
The dollar gained momentum as traders and investors expected to see a rather weak jobs number - analysts forecast 145,000 jobs in September, which is 3,000 more than in August. If this figure holds true, the US Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in November, following a massive 50 basis point correction in September.
Against this backdrop, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar may be due to the fact that traders are looking for a safe haven not only to protect themselves from economic fluctuations. Geopolitical tensions are also playing a role
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👑 Ideas For #USDCAD 🇺🇸🇨🇦
📈 Breakout. One step away from distribution...
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USDCAD makes an attempt to break through the resistance of the “wedge” consolidation on the background of a growing dollar, the reasons for which are economic data from the USA. NonFarm Payrolls are ahead!
On the weekly timeframe, the currency pair is bouncing off the support trendline and heading towards resistance, the pattern as a whole resembles an ascending triangle. But still it is a global sideways range. The movements in it are quite difficult and the price is dragging between the local levels. Ahead is the NFP report, which may become an engine for the price, and based on the assumptions from Wednesday and ADP NonFarm we can assume that on this background the growth of the dollar and the currency pair may continue.
Technically, the bulls are trying to hold the defense above the previously broken resistance. The impulse is beginning to form...
Resistance levels: 1.358, 1.364
Support levels: 1.353, 1.347
If the bulls keep the price in the new plane (buying zone), the price may reach the nearest targets quite quickly. If the news will be favorable, then in this case a rally to the distant targets may be formed. Unpredictable data will bring the currency pair back to the range and may bring the price down to 1.347
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#BTC
Bitcoin's trigger zone for selling is 60K
If this area is broken and the price consolidates below, a drop to 58K-55K could be ahead
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Price breaks support. Panic and news...
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GOLD stands still, traders doubt further actions. There are two days of important news ahead, which can provoke panic and profit-taking...
The market reacts weakly to the rather serious actions in the Middle East, the price is in consolidation without updating local extremes. The dollar is strengthening amid decreasing risks of a 0.5% cut in interest rates in November (the most likely scenario is 0.25%). A strong ADP employment report eased concerns about the state of the US labor market, supporting expectations of Friday's NFP. Ahead of the PMI from ISM and Initial Jobless Claims.
Technically, the chart failed to give impetus from support, with the SMA acting as support. After a failed attempt, price came back and broke the conglomerate of support: the rising line, sma and 2650-2654. Can you feel traders getting nervous?)
Resistance levels: 2650, SMA, 2656, 2663
Support levels: 2640, 2623, 2613, 2600
The trigger is 2640. If the buyers do not hold this area, the price may spill to the bottom of the range, as well as reach the imbalance zone. But, there may be high volatility before the news, within which the price may test the resistance before further downward correction.
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One of the reasons for the fall of #BTC and markets:
94% of all BTC holders are now in profit. Dealers note high activity in buying call options on BTC with strike $75000. Strong sales of “puts” are also noted
QUESTION TO THE STUDY: How to make money if there are no sellers and everyone is buying? Of course! You can't! There must always be a struggle in the market, that's what it's all about.
The market will not let everyone make money forever, that's why the asset is not ready to go up yet. There is too much imbalance despite such a strong buyer's desire. For every big buyer there is a bigger seller :)
Also, relevant:
The value of the Fear and Greed Index rolled back to the “ Fear ” zone (42), minus 8 points for the day.
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Ahead, in 15 minutes, is an important report
ADP NonFarm Employment Change.
High volatility is possible....
👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Bulls are trying to hold their defenses above the SMA
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GOLD is forming a sideways range, within which it strengthens to 2673 with subsequent retracement and retest of SMA 200 & 50. Buyers are trying to hold their defenses above this area with the aim of further growth...
The complicated situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, which keeps the gold price from falling amid the rising dollar. Any de-escalation of the conflict (Israel's inaction on Iran's measures) could increase selling pressure...
Nevertheless, the US employment change data from ADP as well as the Fed's speech will be the next important events for the US dollar and the gold price. Any hints of interest rate cuts will be viewed favorably...
Technically, emphasis on 2665 resistance - if the bulls can consolidate above this zone, gold could go for a retest of ATH.
Also - emphasis on 2643. A break of the support will reinforce selling. This could take the price to 2625-2600.
Resistance levels: 2665, 2673, 2685
Support levels: 2643, 2625, 2515
Bullish trend. Gold is not going to update the lows. The bulls are trying to consolidate above the SMA. Signs that the price is ready to grow. BUT, it is possible that unpredictable signs may appear in the market, which may lead to profit-taking and correction.
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