#GOLD continues to rise, the #DOLLAR continues to weaken against major currencies. Markets continue to bet that the Fed will start cutting rates as early as September and will cut rates more aggressively this year than previously expected.
The key event this week is Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 23rd
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Gold is breaking resistance quite sharply and without any problems, this is what I have been preparing you for over the last few days ;)
ATH is updated! Price is heading towards the psychological level!
The reasons are being clarified, most likely - news, as not only gold reacts, but the whole market (Forex, futures, cryptocurrencies) as well.
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A little bit about forex:
The dollar has been buying back a bit since Thursday, which is having an overall effect on the forex. The reason for this is the market's perception of the general situation. Speculators believe that the Fed may step back a bit and not consider aggressive policy easing.
Against this background, the market is forging a slight pullback to Friday, which may determine local pre-breakout levels for the next trading week.
A few key nuances:
- Goolsbee (Fed): some leading indicators are starting to warn about the possibility of recession
- hedge funds are actively shorting the yen again: shorts increased by 30-40% during the week.
- Australia's central bank rate now at 4.35% peak, not expected to fall anytime soon - Australia's central bank governor
💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 Double bottom + false breakdown = reason for growth ↑
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GBPUSD is changing its course to the north. Double bottom, false breakout, return in trend boundaries, support in the form of MA-200 & MA-50 is the reason to change the market mood and give confidence to speculators
An interesting and promising picture is forming on D1. The price on the background of the retest is confidently consolidating above the previously broken resistance of the symmetrical triangle, which held the market within its boundaries for quite a long time. Against this background, hedge funds increased their longs in GBP to the maximum for 6 years
Technically, the focus is on the resistance at 1.2894. The primary retest may provoke a small rebound, but against the background of strong buying and weak dollar, the big buyer is still in the game, this fact may lead to the break of the key resistance and further growth to 1.30 - 1. 32
Resistance levels: 1.2894
Support levels: SMA, 1.2818
If the price is able to consolidate above 1.2894, we should expect further growth. But at the moment there is a high probability of a small correction before further growth.
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There's key news ahead!
❗️ AT 12:30 GMT
It is worth paying attention to the actual data as its strength can shape the medium-term market sentiment...
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Attempting to recover inside a new range
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GOLD declines after the CPI report to the local liquidity zone of 2440, forming a new trading range. But, buyers come back and try to hold the psychological zone of 2450 again
The bullish trend persists, gold is trading within the “Symmetrical Triangle” consolidation pattern
Traders await US retail sales data for fresh signals on Fed policy. Although the annual inflation rate in the US slowed down for the fourth consecutive month to 2.9%, but these CPI figures have raised fears that the US Fed will decide to cut interest rate heavily next month.
A weak US retail sales report could revive recession fears....
Technically, we should focus on the local levels inside the range of 2440 - 2477.
Resistance levels: 2458, 2467, 2477
Support levels: 2440, 2431, 2320
Technically buyers are trying to keep the price from falling, but all the emphasis is on the news, favorable fundamental data can provide strong support for gold, which can use the energy for another retest of 2477, but an unpredictable report can intensify the sell-off and bring the price to 2425.
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🇺🇸 US - Consumer CPI inflation (July)
m/m = +0.2% (expected +0.2%)
y/y = +2.9% (expected +3%)
Core CPI = +3.2% y/y (expected +3.2%)
👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 ATH retest before CPI. What should we expect?
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GOLD is defending the psychological level and support zone at 2450 and testing key resistance at 2477 for a breakout, ahead of 2483. All eyes are on key US CPI inflation data
Traders are still expecting a softer CPI report after a larger than expected decline in PPI data released yesterday. A softer CPI figure may confirm forecasts of an aggressive Fed rate cut, which will intensify the USD sell-off. This situation may trigger a northward movement in gold (strengthening the price)
In addition, the price of gold continues to find support in the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the situation is still heated to the limit.
Technically, the price continues to head towards 2477-2483. Retests of resistance for a breakout of the level continue.
Resistance levels: 2477, 2483, 2500
Support levels: 2458, 2450
On high news volatility, the price may form a quick breakout and rally or long-squeeze before rising further. BUT, unpredictable news may break the market structure, in which case the price may head beyond 2450.
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US Dollar continues to weaken against major currencies
Today is an important report on inflation in the United States. So far, everything is going according to the Fed's plan. Markets are actively plotting the beginning of the Fed rate cut in September.
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#GOLD
On Sunday I emphasized 2431: price fixation above this level can lead to growth and reaching 2477.
And on Monday I published a more informative idea, which quickly realized itself :)
A small risk, a few hours and 350 pips in your pocket ⚡️
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💡 Ideas For #BTCUSD 🪙
📈 WHALES accumulate, BULLS aim for 70K ↑
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BTC has been consolidating since March, for half a year. Sooner or later the asset will move into the distribution phase. After the shakeout, the price returns to the channel and enters the consolidation phase, holding above 0.5 fibo
The shakeout spurred by panic over bad data in the US market a few weeks ago is redeemed. False breakout leads to a rise to 62K, which defines the local range, forming a strong resistance and the beginning of a local correction. Within the correction, the price is testing 0.5 Fibo and the bulls are actively holding the price above this area, indicating that they are not ready to let the price go beyond this area yet.
So, the focus is on the consolidation of 62K - 56K.
How long will the price trade in this range? As long as it wants, until MM gathers the necessary potential
But, after support retest, false breakdown and liquidity capture, MM has another target - liquidity above 68K - 69K, therefore, we have a high probability to catch strengthening to the channel resistance (69K - 70K)
Support levels: 0.5 Fibo (56K), 53500
Resistance levels: 59700, 62500, 70K
A break of the local resistance may give an impulse to 62350. Next, we need to watch the price reaction at 62500. If the price will not pullback, but will start consolidating and squeezing, then we should wait for the breakout and growth to 70K
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On August 23, J. Powell will deliver a speech at the economic symposium of the heads of the world's Central Banks in Jackson Hole.
Perhaps, the head of the Fed will give a signal regarding the further trajectory of the MPC and will voice the economic prospects of the USA, taking into account the new macro data.
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#USDJPY
A false breakout is forming.
This is a good Friday prerequisite for the next trading week!
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Retest triangle resistance. Next, 2500 or 2400?
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GOLD is strengthening after retesting support at 2440 and false breakdown, heading towards ATH. Buyers are keeping the market from falling, forcing the price to bounce off the local range support
It is worth emphasizing the strong bullish trend and continued retests of triangle resistance, which only increases the chance of a breakout and upside.
The gold price has been strengthening since the evening session, despite strong US data (for Thursday) being the latest boost to dollar buying, especially after an inflation report earlier this week that cast doubt on the possibility of an aggressive Fed interest rate cut in September.
Special emphasis on looming geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continues to support sentiment around the hedge asset
Resistance levels: 2464, 2477
Support levels: 2458, 2450, 2440
Emphasis on both the boundaries of the above range and internal levels. If the bulls hold 2458, their further target will be the resistance 2464, the breakdown of which will lead gold to ATH. And in this case the market will start testing 2477 for a breakthrough and growth.
If the bulls show weakness, the market may make another attempt to retest the support before further growth.
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Chart 1: Global CBs continue to actively buy physical gold - purchase volumes over the last 2 years are well above the average of the last 14 years - WGC data
Chart 2: Gold / Nasdaq 100 ratio . The last time this ratio started to grow strongly was at the peak of the dotcom bubble - Crescat
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US - Initial Jobless Claims = 227k (expected 236k)
US - NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) = -4.7 (expected -5.9)
US - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) = -7 (expected +5.4)
US - Retail Sales (July) = +1% mom (expected +0.4%)
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#GBPUSD
The pound strengthened slightly on Thursday after data showed the economy grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024, in line with forecasts and building on a 0.7% recovery in the first quarter of the year, following a shallow downturn in the second half of 2023.
The Bank of England cut rates earlier this month from a 16-year high and market prices are now reflecting two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, although with the probability of another rate cut at the Bank of England's September meeting just under 40%, traders expect the Bank to proceed cautiously.
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💡 Ideas For NOTUSDT 💰
📈 Pullback after a false breakdown. When is it going up?
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NOT on the background of the rally ( together with TON ) strengthens and updates the maximum 0.0129, thus forming a retest of the wedge resistance. The attempt is unsuccessful, the reaction is a pullback to the liquidity zone.
Fundamentally interesting project in the medium and long term can still show good growth, but for this developers need to try. The prospects of Notcoin will depend on the innovations developed by the project, its marketing strategy and the state of the overall cryptocurrency market.
Technically, a false breakdown of the wedge resistance is forming amid bitcoin's decline. The price may test the liquidity area of 0.0105 and then a retest of the resistance may follow. I do not exclude the fact that the support may be broken without any corresponding reaction, in this case we will wait for a retest of trend support.
Resistance levels: 0.1294
Support levels: 0.01053, 0.00912
Accordingly, any breakout and consolidation of the price above the wedge resistance will be a strong signal for further rally. As long as the price has not left the range, it is worth considering trading inside this pattern.
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#Tether printed 1 billion USDT yesterday, and earlier last week Tether and Circle issued about $2.8 billion, indicating that some institutional investors are putting fresh capital into the crypto market - 10xresearch.
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❗️ Ahead of CPI and Core CPI at 12:30 GMT!
The annualized U.S. consumer price index rose 2.9% in July, up from the 3% recorded in June. Annual core CPI inflation for the same period would fall to 3.2% from June's 3.3%.
For the month, the CPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July, while the core CPI is likely to rise slightly to 0.2%.
A softer-than-expected CPI reading for the year could confirm forecasts of an aggressive and large-scale Fed rate cut, which would add further strength to the US dollar's downtrend. The gold price, in turn, could reach new record highs.
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💡 Ideas For USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵
📈 Consolidating before the news...
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USDJPY has been in consolidation for a long time, correlating with the dollar. Traders are waiting for key news and are not ready to act early.
The currency pair is in the downward phase, which is a consequence of the strengthening of the Japanese yen on the background of the dollar's decline. The Central Bank of Japan actively considered the issue of raising rates, but postponed this step for later because of destabilized markets.
Today is an important report on inflation in the USA. So far, everything is going according to the Fed's plan. Markets are actively plotting the start of a Fed rate cut in September.
Technically, the bearish trend may continue, there is a huge pool of liquidity above 147.9, which may be liquidated before further decline.
Resistance levels: 147.9, 150.2, 150.86
Support levels: 146.29, 144.04
Technically and fundamentally we have prerequisites leading to a possible decline. We should wait for news to take some actions....
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📶The result of the CRYPTO VIP CHANNEL
🔹For November +343%🟢
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🔹For January +46%🟢
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🔹For April +499%🟢
🔹For May +508%🟢
🔹For Jun +85%🟢
🔹For Jul +63%🟢
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#ETH is testing the key resistance.
The market cooled down a bit after high volatility on the background of panic and moved into the phase of consolidation.
The price is rebounding and heading towards the support, but further on we need to watch the price reaction.
At the moment the market is neutral-bearish, but globally it is bullish.
Accordingly, the bulls continue to hold 2000-2500.
For me, the resistance at 2717 plays an important role. Breaking and consolidation of the price above this area will activate buying....
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#USDCAD is not going to go up yet. Bears held the price, having forged another density of limit orders in the zone of 1.3745 - 1.3755.
Accordingly, the scenario in the idea is still valid.
The upcoming news may push the price...
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