👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Favorable fundamental background. Will we go to 2450?
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GOLD updates high to 2424 amid favorable news. Buyers are returning with the belief that the dollar will continue to fall on the back of the imminent interest rate cuts
CPI indicates significant easing of inflationary pressures in June. Annual inflation fell to 3%, the lowest rate in a year. This report provides evidence to the Fed that inflation is easing, but most likely it is not enough for them and they will need 1-2 reports confirming the fact that inflation is under control and a move into deflation is forming.
Ahead of PPI and traders are focusing on this report as favorable data could reinforce fresh selling in the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a rise in gold prices. But, it is worth considering the unpredictability of the news in your trading.
Resistance levels: 2411, 2416, 2424
Support levels: 2396, 2392, 2385
Technically, a small correction is possible after a false breakdown of resistance, which in general may lead to testing the imbalance zone before the next growth, if the fundamental background after PPI is maintained or intensified....
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#JPY #USDJPY
Immediately after the US inflation report, the Japanese Central Bank intervened in the FX market to support the Yen (not sure yet, but this is most likely what happened)
The purpose of such quiet actions by the CBOJ is to accumulate the overall fundamental energy and its actions to strongly influence the currency without a huge financial investment, as a huge potential part is taken by the fundamentals.
But, I am not yet ready to say that these interventions will lead to proper success either)
*the market is starting to buy back the slight decline of the pair)
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#GBPUSD is reaching its targets just as quickly.
The fundamental background is changing rapidly, as already in the morning the UK received a higher GDP than expected.
The currency pair feels strong support from the buyers.
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❗️ CPI ahead
If the data indicate an indirect weakening of inflation, it will increase the chances of a possible reduction in interest rates and a change in the Fed's hawkish stance.
In this case, the dollar may continue to decline, which is generally favorable for the forex and metals market.
But unpredictable data may shake the market.
In any case, high volatility is expected.
Let's follow the news!
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → 2387 is key resistance, but ahead of CPI...
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GOLD continues to maintain a bullish market structure, gradually pushing up to strong resistance with a breakout target. The US dollar is declining amid dovish US Fed assumptions....
All eyes remain on the US CPI report
Powell's caution on weakening labor market conditions suggested that a September rate cut is likely just around the corner, which once again brought down the US dollar along with US Treasury yields.
Softer US annual CPI data or a surprise decline in monthly inflation could confirm the September Fed rate cut and increase the chances of another rate cut in December. And vice versa...
Technically, buyers are pushing up to 2387. A break of resistance will open the way to 2400-2437. But, there could be a correction before that
Resistance levels: 2387
Support levels: 2378, 2370
Favorable news can strengthen the movement, in which case the resistance breakout is not to be missed. But, unexpected data may shake the market, the dollar may continue its strengthening phase and in this case gold will head towards 2350.
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Posted an idea for gold yesterday, target achieved.
Buyers held the 2350 area and further headed upwards.
As part of the news days when the Fed head speaks, this is a very good move
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#EURUSD remained largely unchanged early Wednesday morning, with traders still digesting Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's speech. Some of his remarks were a positive surprise for the markets, but not for the US Dollar.
Powell told Congress that the U.S. has made progress in fighting stubborn inflation, but Fed officials need "more good data" before moving to lower interest rates. In addition, the central bank chief said the labor force has "cooled considerably," and he warned that high rates could derail the economy and send it into a downward spiral of unemployment. On the other hand, early rate cuts have the potential to reignite inflation.
Overall, the US dollar was the loser yesterday as investors welcomed Powell's comments on rate cuts and rushed into risk assets. One currency pair remained resilient on the way to higher ground. Thursday will see the release of inflation data for June - expect increased volatility and trading opportunities.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → The fight for 2365. Can we get to 2400?
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GOLD is testing 2350, gathering liquidity below this zone. Bulls are actively holding the defense above the key area and the overall picture looks promising.... BUT!
Powell's speech continues today ahead of CPI and PPI. Things are heating up, the slightest hint of an unpredictable outcome could shake the market.
Technically, gold is showing bullish dynamics after the bulls did not let the price go beyond 2350. The price is consolidating above the key level of 2365 and testing the area of interest and liquidity of 2375-2380. A breakout and consolidation of the price above this area may further strengthen the price, as the promising target, at the moment, is 2387 - 23400.
Resistance levelsGOLD → An intermediate bottom of 2350 is forming. What's next?: 2373, 2380
Support levels: 2365, 2355, 2350
A bounce to the downside before further growth is possible, but price consolidation above the key zones could form an interim bottom for the bulls. All emphasis on Powell's comments.....
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Powell:
- Fed has made significant progress in bringing inflation down to target 2%, latest monthly readings show modest further progress
- Fed needs more favorable inflation data to cut rates
- rate hike unlikely to be the next step
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💡 Ideas For USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵
📈 USDJPY → Interventions + CPI. The market doesn't believe it...
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USDJPY is coming under bearish attack. Immediately after the US CPI release, the Japanese Central Bank intervened in the FX market to support the yen.
Fundamentally this was to be expected. Japan's central bank is not trying very hard to preserve its national currency. In order to invest minimal effort, policymakers took advantage of the US CPI report. The CPI + Interventions tandem led to a 2.7% decline in the currency pair. But, traders are starting to buy back some of the decline. Ahead of PPI, the news could both amplify the fall and smear all the efforts of the BoJ.
Technically, I don't think such actions will lead to anything global. The growth could continue. On W1 the nature of the market does not change, all interventions are gradually bought out and the currency pair will continue to update the highs.
Resistance levels: 159.6, 160.2, 160.5
Support levels: 157.7
It is possible to buy out and test the imbalance zone before the subsequent decline. A favorable background may be the PPI report, but after the market calms down, traders may return to JPY sell-offs, which may lead to the continuation of USDJPY growth.
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#AUDUSD Perfect realization of the general structure.
After consolidation, the price enters the distribution phase and reaches the target quite quickly, as the favorable wind was the CPI report.
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#GOLD
Perfect realization of the scenario)
+ 440 pips!
Has anyone traded from the beginning? Share your results! ;)
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#ZEN allowed to take +43% in a few days
In total, with 10X leverage this is 430%
Good result in a weak bear market)
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US - CPI CONTRIBUTION (June)
m/m = -0.1% (expected +0.1%)
y/y = +3% (expected +3.1%)
core CPI = +3.3% y/y (expected +3.4%)
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US - Initial Jobless Claims = 222k (expected 236k)
#USDJPY traded well in early Thursday trading, but a key economic report threatened to shake things up. Later in the day, US inflation data will be released.
How high can it go from here? A break beyond ¥162 would mark a new multi-decade peak as the yen's valuation has been pushed back to the 1980s. The deeper into the past, the worse it gets - in the 1970s, the Japanese currency was worth more than ¥300 to the US dollar. Amidst all this, the Bank of Japan remains silent and has shown no signs of intervention since the last failed attempt.
That said, today markets are watching the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI. The data will reflect the pace of price growth for June, and analysts are hoping for another tepid reading. Price growth for last month is expected to come in at 3.1%, down from May's 3.3% annualized rate. Expect increased volatility as the report could spring surprises and shake up currency trading.
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💡 Ideas For PEPEUSDT 🐸
📈 PEPE → A condition that will lead to growth. Is the buyer back?
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PEPE - is undergoing a deep correction phase. The price is resting on the strong support and the "discount" zone appears the buyer, holding the market. The focus on the upper boundary of the range...
! For convenience, I will indicate key zones without zeros.
Bulls do not let the price below 0.0761, forming a limit support area, in the neighborhood of which a strong buyer appears, it can be determined by the growth of volumes and the pattern of redemption with the subsequent retest without updating the minimum.
At the moment it is not excluded that the coin can continue falling, but based on the general situation there is a chance that PEPE can move into the recovery phase, but provided that the coin can pass the area of 0.0951-0.0991 with the price fixing above this zone, which will generally define an intermediate bottom for the market.
Resistance levels: 0.0952, 0.0991, 0.1084
Support levels: 0.0886, 0.0761
Technically, the situation is complicated because of bitcoin, which is consolidating in the discount zone, but in general there are bullish prerequisites. If the guide (BTC) goes up, it may favor altcoins.
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#BTCUSD returned to growth early Wednesday, gaining 10% in three days. The markets may have already realized that Mt. Gox's expected payout may not be so dire. The bankrupt exchange has recovered about 140,000 BTC that are waiting to be issued to users.
On Tuesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell gave a lighthearted speech to Congress. He noted that keeping interest rates higher could hurt economic growth. And while Fed officials are interested in lowering rates, they need "more good data," i.e. lower inflation. Lower interest rates are usually favorable for risky assets
According to analysts, bitcoin's rise was likely due to Powell's lukewarm comments about lower rates. Nevertheless, the $60,000 mark is still far from the cryptocurrency's all-time record of over $73,000. Going forward, crypto traders are keeping an eye on the latest inflation data due out on Thursday. Consumer prices in America are projected to continue to decline in June. Economists expect inflation to rise 3.1 percent, down from May's 3.3 percent.
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Matrixport: longs in ETH futures rose to 3.1 million ETH from 2.7 million - traders expect spot ETH-ETF launch to be approved soon
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💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 GBPUSD → The bulls are holding their ground. Target 1.29
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GBPUSD shows bullish outlook ahead of strong news publication. GBPUSD continues to strengthen on the overall fundamental backdrop
The market is reacting weakly to the resistance area as, against the backdrop of a relatively weak dollar buyers are taking initiative towards GBP. Strong news ahead. Powell speaks again today, tomorrow the UK GDP is published, as well as the US CPI. The news can both strengthen the growth and reverse it.
Technically, the currency pair looks quite bullish. The price consolidation above 1.28 will be a good point for the continuation of the rise to 1.29 and 1.30.
But, the structure will be broken when 1.2775 is broken, in this case we can expect a correction to 1.27 - 1.266.
Resistance levels: 1.28, 1.289
Support levels: 1.2775, 1.2708
Fundamentally and technically everything is positive, I continue to consider further strengthening under a number of conditions described above. The potential target is 1.29
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#GOLD
Emphasis on this area 👆
Example 1) If there is a rebound and a return to 2365, then the first scenario can be further considered.
Example 2) If we break the channel support, the price may spill down to 2325.
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📶
At 14:00 GMT the head of FED - Powell is speaking.
There may be high volatility. It is also worth paying attention to his comments.
Inflows into spot BTC-ETFs sharply intensified, investors buy out the 'bottom' - BBG
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