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Lately the market has been kind of rotten.
In general, both Forex, futures and cryptocurrency.
Most likely there is an explanation for this.
The longer the market stands still, the longer and further the distribution will go.
There is a secret, not everyone will tell you about it 🤫
Distribution after consolidation occurs generally between 20% and 40% of the accumulated potential.
This means that the distribution time will be approximately equal to 20-40% of the time of consolidation formation.
Here is an example: the consolidation of a currency pair took place for 124 days and formed 88 bars (range on a high timeframe).
Therefore, the distribution time (it can be the formation of a trend or local movement in one direction or another) is 20-40%, which is from 18 to 35 days.
If you apply this information correctly, it will improve your trading strategy (not for scalping)
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❗️ AHEAD OF THE NEWS - 12:30 GMT!
🇺🇸 US - Core CPI (MoM)
Expectation: 0.3% (previous 0.3%)
🇺🇸 US - CPI (YoY) (Apr)
Expectation: 3.4% (previous 3.4%)
I wanted to make posts with less text to make it more convenient for you, but it's not working out yet. It's hard to summarize the overall situation. Sorry)
There will be another post on the gold situation soon
💡Ideas For GBPJPY 🇬🇧🇯🇵
📈 GBPJPY → Breaking the psychological level. What's next, 215.0?
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GBPJPY is getting ready to break resistance (ATH for 15 years). In the long term, there is upside potential to 215.8. A strong bullish formation is forming on H4-D1
On the monthly timeframe, price is in the 195-215 range. Bulls kept the defense above the support, at the same time a pre-breakdown setup is forming on the chart, the focus of which is on the resistance at 200.6. The psychological level may be broken in the nearest future, which may provoke the market to active growth towards 202-205, further towards 215 (medium-term perspective).
Japanese Central Bank is not doing well, today we expect news in the US: CPI, FOMC and FED meeting, inflation data is expected to be neutral.
Resistance levels: 200.6
Support levels: 199.9
Technically and fundamentally, the currency pair has a strong bullish bias. If the bulls are able to consolidate above 200, this zone will become a strong support in the medium term.
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#GBPJPY 🇬🇧🇯🇵
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#EURCHF - excellent breakout after a small pullback
On the background of a strong fall, the price is testing the support and it would seem that the price should head towards the resistance, but a strong buyer does not allow it and forms a quick retest of 0.9677, which leads to a breakout of the level.
+50 pips ⚡️ at the moment. The market may give more as I am waiting for a decline to 0.9556 (liquidity zone)
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⚠️A small explanation of the false breakdown:
There are two types of false breakdowns:
💠The simple false breakdown (quick movement) which occurs from 5 minutes to 4 hours
💠A complex false breakout, which can occur from one day to several days.
🔸The simple false-break tests the level, gathers the buyers and sellers bids and then reverses.
🔸A complex false-break works harder. On the first day the price may break the level, trade above it and close above it, which confirms the fixing of the price to continue the move, but the next day when all the players have entered the market to continue the move, the big player brings the price back below the level or zone and thus fools all the players who entered correctly.
‼️Most importantly, a correctly identified zone or level will allow you to correctly trade a false breakout
🔺And one more thing: all of the strongest moves occur only after a false-break!
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❗️US Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen and John Hickenlooper) sent a letter to the Fed demanding an interest rate cut
PS: Tomorrow is the Fed meeting (we will discuss the nuances with you a bit later)
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💡 Ideas For INJUSDT 💰
📈 INJUSDT → Interested buyer. Ready to rise to 43.0?
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INJ looks stronger than bitcoin and the crypto market. Against the background of the general decline, the coin is growing and this is a rather strong premise.
The price may return to the range of 29.0 - 43.0
On D1, a pre-breakout setup is forming regarding the 29.2-29.45 area. If the price can consolidate above this area, then further traders will open bullish potential, the target of which could be a rise towards resistance (intra-range movement). The coin looks green in the red market and it means that someone is interested in it (big player). On the overall negative fundamental background there is a risk that the coin will go down, but for now I am looking out for further upside.
*The long scenario will be broken if the price closes below yesterday's opening.
Resistance levels: 33.62, 43.4
Support levels: 29.21, 29.85
The potential is there. It can be realized if the bulls hold the defense above the key support area.
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#INJUSDT 💰
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#GOLD
China's gold investment market remains active, but the retail gold jewelry market has experienced sales pressure for the first time in recent years due to high gold prices.
In the last week of May, total gold trading volume in the PRC fell 22.8% from the previous week - China Daily
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Last week, it was reported that China suspended gold purchases for reserves after 18 months of continuous buying
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🇺🇸 USA - CPI
m/m = +0% (expected +0.1% / earlier +0.3%)
YoY = +3.3% (expected +3.4% / earlier +3.4%)
A few comments:
- The situation is complicated by the fact that there are too many factors influencing the overall situation lately
- news is not released at the same time, but sequentially, so traders can change their positions as the data comes in.
- Another rather interesting situation:
US Senators (Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen and John Hickenlooper) sent a letter to the Fed demanding to lower the interest rate.
It is highly probable that Powell will not react in any way, as he is more concerned with the inflation situation, but still, the very fact of active influence on the policy...
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → CPI and FED. What to expect from the market?
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GOLD is stopping after correction, traders are afraid to make premature decisions as news is ahead. A consolidation below 2315 is forming
False break of support leads the price to retest 2310-2315, after which traders take a breather before the news.
All eyes remain on the upcoming big events, CPI and Fed. Key US CPI data will help shape the Fed's view on interest rates, which will significantly impact the value of the US dollar and gold prices in the near term. The market is expecting neutral (no change) data, which could generally keep the same fundamental backdrop. But, all eyes are on the actual data as the market is still confused by last Friday's higher NFP than expected.
Nevertheless, any initial reaction to the US CPI data may be temporary as gold traders will quickly switch to the FOMC & FED meeting.
Resistance levels: 2315, 2325, 2354
Support levels: 2305, 2291, 2267
Technically and fundamentally, gold is weak at the moment. On the background of high volatility, the price may try to break through 2325 and test the liquidity area of 2335-2345, then move to the decline phase, if the fundamental background is suitable for this. Risks of further decline are quite high, but the coming news can both strengthen this decline and break the market structure.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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#EURUSD is realizing the scenario I published earlier)
The price cannot overcome strong resistance, and the change of fundamental background and mood favorably influences the price fall.
+150 pips ⚡️ and this is not the limit.
A break of support will resume the fall to 1.0606
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If Powell takes their opinion into account and changes his tone at least in his comments, the market may react quite strongly.
And the FOMC and FED meeting is tomorrow, after CPI
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Price range. Test of resistance before the news
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GOLD is testing trend resistance. The struggle continues, but on the background of strong dollar the price can test the minimum or even update it. The news is coming and the market may go flat
GOLD is testing the strong resistance area 2304 as well as the pullback level 2314.7, forming a new key resistance within the correction. The technical and fundamental background for gold is negative, in the mid-term we should expect a fall, but tomorrow we are waiting for news such as: CPI, FOMC and FED meeting, where obviously the overall inflation situation and the US interest rate will be discussed.
If we pay attention to D1, we can see that the dollar continues to grow in an uptrend, at tomorrow's speeches, the regulators may continue to support the dollar, which may have a negative impact on gold, which by then may test the liquidity area 2304-2314-2325 before a further possible fall.
Support levels: 2300, 2291, 2267
Resistance levels: 2304, 2314, 2325
Today the market may trade within the range of 2291 - 2325, the prospective direction can be discussed tomorrow (before the news), but within the intra-day I would expect a retest of resistance and a possible decline to support.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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#btc
Bitcoin is still interesting.
A strong fall followed immediately after the strong news, but this fall was quickly stopped.
The coin stood still for two days and saved up (bought out the actions of sellers). So, someone is very interested in bitcoin now and does not let the price fall low, so we can go higher.
The scenario for now is towards buying. Watch, bitcoin is starting to come back to the level. The 71250-71500 area plays a key role.
A close above the level will trigger a rise.
* the scenario can be broken with a break of 67250
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👑 Performance VIP GOLD
🗣For the last week from:
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Total result: 397 pips! ⚡
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The financial markets are expected to heat up this week with a number of key data releases. Get ready for high volatility.
The U.S. Dollar Index has moved higher to start the new trading week.
May Non-Farm Payrolls data showed that the US economy continues to grow with employers hiring 272,000 people. Moreover, it has further pushed back expectations of a rate cut, with analysts now calling for the first interest rate cut to occur as early as December. That's if rate cuts happen at all this year
At the end of this week, markets have a lot to digest as they try to figure out what the Fed next step toward raising interest rates will be. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index will show the inflation rate for May. Wall Street expects a flat reading with a 3.4% increase, the same as April's reading. On the same day, the Fed will decide on the benchmark interest rate, it is expected to remain at 5.50%. More importantly, Fed Chairman Jay Powell will deliver a speech and markets will be listening to every word from the gentleman who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon”.
PS:
Consequently, an expensive dollar has a negative impact on futures, commodities and Forex.
Gold will fall with a high dollar, as will currencies.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Causes of the fall. Can gold fall even lower? 2265?
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GOLD is making a new low and there are a number of reasons for that. The price after Friday's sell-offs is returning in the bearish trend boundaries, which determines the medium-term prospects for us
On D1, price is still in a global sideways range and support (global liquidity zone) is still untested. So why did gold fall? The market was negatively affected by the strengthening of the dollar, due to the positive NonFarm Payrolls for the US market, which generally forms a medium-term mood for the markets. Traders also moved to the bearish train on the background of news related to the suspension of global gold purchases by the Central Bank of China.
Technically, the continuation of the downtrend on H1 is most likely. On D1, a takeover is forming and Friday's close is practically at the minimum values (The movement, theoretically, is not over yet), but before that the market may test the lower boundary of the consolidation (the nearest resistance).
Resistance levels: 2315, 2325
Support levels: 2291, 2267
I expect local strengthening before the subsequent fall. Traders may try to buy back some of the decline (liquidity gathering) before further testing support with a view to breakout.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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