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The U.S. dollar index is proving strong again after posting a powerful two-week gain of 2%. The indicator, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six other currencies, climbed from its 102.60 level in mid-March to end Friday's trading at 104.43.
The dollar is drawing a technical pattern called the Symmetrical Triangle. This is a formation that indicates a gradual decline in price fluctuations before the inevitable breakout of one of the two boundaries to one side or the other. The two higher lows take us to a looming inflection point as the triangle nears its apex.
A quiet week ahead for forex traders with no major news. EURUSD is off to a slow start in trading, floating near $1.0860 after the U.S. currency gave back what it lost over the week on Friday. The USDJPY rose last week, eating up all the short sellers' bets after the Bank of Japan got rid of yield curve controls and raised interest rates for the first time since 2007.
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💡 Ideas For EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸
📈 EURUSD → Resistance pressure on the bearish trend
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EURUSD is testing the support of the range formed inside the bearish trend. There is resistance pressure in the market
Bostic (Fed) stated that he now expects only one interest rate cut this year, thus this comment can be read as a hawkish attitude of the regulator. Bostic is often aggressive in his comments after Powell's speech
The dollar index are in a bullish phase, which has a negative impact on the euro. On H4, the price is bouncing off the support and may test the nearest resistance before further declining on the trend.
Resistance levels: 1.08597, 1.08975
Support levels: 1.07958, 1.07030
Technically, against the background of bearish trend, the resistance may affect the price accordingly, which may lead to a retest of the support with a subsequent breakout and decline.
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U.S. Senator McHenry: Congress determines SEC jurisdiction and budget, Gensler will NOT be able to exercise discretion.
Plans to classify #ETH as "securities" are contrary to CFTC classification and previous SEC actions.
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The SEC is investigating Ethereum, requesting information (documents, financial statements, etc.) from cryptocurrency companies that may be relevant to the Ethereum Foundation.
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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/khYzkjPe-BITCOIN-Test-of-the-risk-zone-When-will-the-price-go-to-75K/
I have some more interesting news from the cryptocurrency market, I'll share it soon 😎
Brad Garlinghouse: SEC will lose the war against Ethereum the same way they lost against Ripple.
The SEC is fighting the crypto industry and suffering major defeats in the courts + disputes with other regulators (like the CFTC) and falling behind international peers.
SEC is campaigning to classify Ethereum as a "security"
The SEC is investigating Ethereum, requesting information (documents, financial statements, etc.) from cryptocurrency companies that may be relevant to the Ethereum Foundation
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💡 Ideas For EURGBP 🇪🇺🇬🇧
📈 EURGBP → Transition of the market to the distribution phase
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EURGBP on the background of stronger decrease of GBP than EUR, connected mainly on the background of economic and geopolitical factors allows the currency pair to break the resistance of consolidation
Globally, the currency pair is in neutral-negative condition, as there is no clear trend, at the same time a wedge and symmetrical triangle are traced on the background of weak downward movement. But, the breakthrough of the upper boundary of consolidation can become the beginning of a local bullish trend. In general, there is a potential for price growth by 1 - 1.5%. On H4, the price breaks the resistance of the long consolidation, which technically puts the market in the distribution state. It is worth paying attention to the resistance at 0.8588. Breakout and consolidation of this boundary will open the price a new way up.
Resistance levels: 0.8533, 0.8621, 0.8699.
Support levels: 0.8533, 0.8500
The market has a potential for further growth. I am waiting for a breakthrough of the above resistance with further growth to the targets on the chart.
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And so, BITCOIN 💰
In general, the market is in the correction phase. Zones that can resume price growth are 69K and 73500. Breakout and consolidation of the price above these zones will form a support area or an intermediate bottom, which will favorably affect the growth.
But the zones that can pull the correction even lower are: 60K
Fundamentally and technically bitcoin is ok. There is an important event ahead - halving. On the background of this event, the price may go down to strong support zones before further growth.
The correction, which is happening now, is a technically important event, as the market needs rest, the market maker needs to balance the situation and collect liquidity before further movement in one direction or another.
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Let's briefly review the situation with #GBPUSD:
A market with strong support zones, below which the price does not fall.
Buyer is holding the price even amid strong growth of the dollar index. The market did not let the price below the risk zones 1.26, 1.20, 1.18, which could change the trend and break the structure.
In general, the market situation in the medium and long term is favorable to the Pound Sterling could strengthen. Especially against the background of the Fed's "dovish mood", this scenario is quite probable.
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Today at 12:30 we're interested in Initial Jobless Claims and at 1:45 PM PMI
In general, analysts are expecting a decline in the overall indicators, which may give a negative background for the dollar index.
At the moment, it is quite difficult to determine the factors, as the situation has been generally neutral lately. Inflation is at the same level, around 3.0-3.2%, interest rates are unchanged.
Based on the general situation, we can assume that the news will remain neutral on today's data, or may get slight changes.
But based on Powell's speech yesterday, the economy may react more aggressively. There is a chance to see a drop in Initial Jobless claims and a slight rise in PMI
PS:
Initial Jobless Claims: Higher than expected - negative for the dollar and vice versa.
PMI: Lower than expected - negative for the dollar and vice versa.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → New Horizons. Price opens a new range
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GOLD is getting a good medium-term signal on Powell's words yesterday. Metal is trampling its way into new horizons and probing new highs. Today the market is waiting for Initial Jobless Claims and PMI
M1 timeframe is pointing us to the approximate medium term potential which is capped at $2380-2400, price has entered a new bullish range. Yesterday's news from Powell gives the market the realization that the overall situation is improving and the time when the dollar will start to slacken on the back of rate cuts is getting closer. On the background of the news, investors continue to buy gold even more, as well as central banks of many leading countries of the world, which only favorably influences the price.
Resistance levels: 2212, 2222
Support levels: 2200, 2195, 2175
Technically, the gold may test the support before rising further. The trend is strongly bullish. The liquidity area at 2195 plays an important role at the moment on the background of today's news, which is published at 12:30 GMT
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In any case, whatever the movement is, either you are in the plus and close your targets, or it will be a stoploss. Accordingly, it is a game regarding risks. If you trade competently, you will lose part of the daily risk and no more. But if you are not ready to protect yourself, you will sit in the red numbers in the statistics forever.
A trader should always have risk first. Relative to risk is always building his strategy, stoploss, targets and daily potential.
Markets and especially Forex, as a politically dependent market, always lays a huge unpredictability amid speculation on speeches or comments from regulators or other more important economic factors.
Therefore, you as traders should take this into account and trade according to constructive risks.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Trading within the range between levels
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GOLD is forming a correction after a false breakdown of the resistance of the range. Against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar index, pressure from resistance appears in gold
The market is starting to bet that the Fed will not cut rates this year. At the same time Bostic (Fed) said he now expects only one Fed rate cut this year following Powell's comments about a pledged 0.75% cut in 2024.
Gold on D1 in the 2195, 2148 range. The candlestick setup is bearish and most likely inclined to see the decline continue. The target in this case is the area of 2150-2145. On H1, the market is forming pressure from sellers on the background of strengthening dollar index.
Resistance levels: 2172, 2177
Support levels: 2166, 2156, 2150, 2144
Technically, within the range gold may test the liquidity area 2150-2145 as it is a tidbit for both market maker and traders at the moment
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Kobeissi: The market is starting to bet on the prospect of the Fed not lowering rates this year
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Vanguard doesn't believe the Fed will start cutting rates this year
PS:
Bostic
(
Fed
) said he now expects only one Fed rate cut this year
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A little bit about #GOLD:
- Rally in gold is far from over - CNBC
- Global central banks buying gold at record pace
- WGC forecasts record gold demand this year
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💡 Ideas For BTCUSD 🪙
📈 BITCOIN → Test of the risk zone. When will the price go to 75K?
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The market does not allow the price to get close to the risk zones, indicating that there is strong buying interest and interested smart money. There is a probability that before further growth the market may form a false breakdown of liquidity areas located below. But it should be understood that the market is currently protecting these areas, if the market manages to break the support of the 60K range, it will be the start of a strong correction to 50K
A local bearish trend is forming on H1, but it is still within the 70K - 60K range. Within the current movement the price may test the support of the local trend, as well as the support of the global range - 60K. There is a high probability of a false breakdown, which will cause a change in the local trend and in this case the price will change its target from support to resistance. Targets could be 69K and 74K.
Support: 62598, 61447, 60313, 59313
Resistance: 65466, 68132, 69000
At the moment, it is worth looking at the strategy of trading inside the range on the background of the uptrend. We should expect a retest of the strong support area followed by the formation of a change of local movement.
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#GBPUSD fell on Thursday and early Friday after the Bank of England left UK interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. Following this, the UK central bank said that it plans to start reducing borrowing costs, but it needs more data before cutting the prime rate from a 16-year high.
GBP did not take the news well and early Friday slipped more than 220 pips, or about 2%, to $1.2580, down from $1.2800 a day earlier. On a larger scale, however, the British currency is performing impressively, with its value against the dollar up about 5% since October.
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Powell's speaking at 13:00 GMT. It is likely to be the end of his meeting this week.
Yesterday the market caught strong bullish news for the US dollar, which spooked traders a bit. It is worth considering the Fed chief's words, as he may remind everyone of his political dovish view on the current situation.
In general, if Powell starts sticking to the tone he set on Wednesday, then the market will stroke yesterday's news and start to recover.
Let me remind you what he said on Wednesday:
- a rate cut is likely appropriate later this year, but not guaranteed - it will all depend on incoming dataЧитать полностью…
- huge focus on the labor market - for further rate decisions.
- Fed projections call for a 0.75% rate cut in 2024 and another 0.75% in 2025.
- The Fed is going to start slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction soon
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Retest of liquidity area before further growth
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GOLD corrects after testing $2222. News on Thursday shook the market after Powell's dovish statement on Wednesday, which spurred a false breakdown and a 2.5% fall
Yesterday the market met a bullish wave of news for the US market: Initial Jobless Claims down, PMI up, overall this is a locally positive scenario, but today at 13:30 Powell speaks, who can probably remind some of the things he said on Wednesday.
Technically, gold is forming a retest of the 2166 support, which prepares us for a continuation of the decline that could happen before the news to test the strong liquidity area. But, Powell's speech may refresh traders' memory again. In this case, the market may resume the growth phase again, as the general fundamental background for gold is favorable for further growth.
Resistance levels: 2172, 2183
Support levels: 2166, 2152, 2144
Now on H1-H4 a range is forming and price is heading towards support - a classic trading strategy inside a range is to trade from its boundaries. Pay attention to today's speech of the Fed Head. His words can both cheer you up and shock you ;)
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Fundamentally, #USDJPY is a bit different. Even amid the rate hike by the Japanese Central Bank, traders and investors still do not see a positive scenario for the local currency. Even amid the falling dollar indexx, the Japanese yen is getting cheaper at a much higher rate.
The price is approaching the resistance at 152.0. It is still difficult to talk about breaking through this area after a strong rally, most likely a correction may now follow.
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The Fed has scheduled three rate cuts of up to 75 basis points for 2024, and the same number for 2025. At the March meeting, the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. According to economic forecasts, most Fed officials have outlined three interest rate cuts in 2024, which is in line with previous guidance on this issue.
The US dollar's initial reaction was to move sharply lower as markets digested the heated report. EURUSD jumped about 40 pips before returning to unchanged levels. USDJPY retreated from the 2024 high of ¥151.80 and is floating around ¥151.40.
Recent inflationary pressures have raised concerns that the US economy may not be cooling as anticipated. As such, Fed policymakers have said they need to gather more data before cutting interest rates from a 23-year high.
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💡 Ideas For ETHUSD 🔷
📈 ETHEREUM → Retest 4000. Are we preparing for further growth?
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ETH is testing a strong liquidity area after a false breakdown of the support zone formed on the background of Powell's speech. The 3980-4000 area plays an important role before further rise or correction
A candle with a long enough shadow is forming on W1, indicating active buying interest in the market, which actively restrains the price from falling. The global ATH has not yet been reached, indicating that the upside to an important target is still ahead. The market has the potential for another 30-40%.
At the moment, the cryptocurrency community's eyes are focused on the halving of BTC, which is expected in April and the approval of spot ETH-ETFs, but the SEC continues to reject incoming applications. These are quite important levers that can favorably affect both individual coins and the entire cryptocurrency market.
Resistance levels: 3983.65.
Support levels: ascending lines, 3200, 3064
Technically, from 3983 may be followed by a correction to support to accumulate potential before further growth. A price retest of resistance would indicate the readiness of the coin to break the zone and further rise to the resistance of the range
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As for yesterday's market situation related to Powell's speech and price behavior.
The dollar index lost a lot of ground on the back of Powell's speech:
- We may cut rates at some point this year, but the outlook is uncertain.
- A 0.75 rate cut is projected for 2024. (That's about 3 rate cuts).
- The rate has probably peaked.
- We are prepared to keep the rate high if required!
- Inflation spikes in January and February are seasonal adjustments. Nothing terrible!
Overall, the fact that he hinted at 3 possible rate cuts (0.75 total - three times 0.25) is a good signal of a dovish mood on the part of the Fed.
Also, it's worth realizing I recently talked about the pressure on Powell. Several officials in the US President's office are asking, and quite persistently, for a rate cut. There's an election coming up and the system is trying to prepare. In general, politics plays a huge role in the markets
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