💡 Ideas For EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸
📈 EURUSD → The 1.100 liquidity area is interesting for the market
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EURUSD is in the phase of a local uptrend. The reason is the decline in the dollar index on the background of weak fundamental policy. The target in this case is the 1.100 liquids area
For two weeks in a row the dollar index is trading with a negative fundamental background, which is quite favorable for the euro. As the price is inside the range and in the phase of growth from the support, in case of distribution of targets for the market the area of interest is the upper boundary - 1.100. But, today the news is published, as this factor brings a drop of unpredictability, we need to understand that the break of the support of the ascending channel will break the structure. And a retest and consolidation of the price above 1.0897 will form the potential for further growth.
Support levels: 1.0897, channel support
Resistance levels: 1.100
I expect that the currency pair can realize a bullish potential, as the area of 1.100 is interesting for the market.
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🇺🇸 U.S. Macrodata:
▪️ Initial jobless claims number
FACT: 217K
PREDICTION: 217K
PREDICTION: 217K
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In general, this is a neutral scenario for the dollar. That is, the previous, negative background is still observed.
The trade balance has also decreased, which does not really improve the situation.
BITCOIN briefly surpassed its previous record, jumping to $69,210. Soon after, there were no buyers and the price fell by almost 7% in a day.
The price soared to ATH of $69,210 on Tuesday, breaking the previous record set in 2021. That excitement was enough to cement a new milestone, as the flagship price retreated throughout the day and ended the session down 6% at $63,300 apiece. As it turned out, there was no one willing to continue trading above the frightening price tag.
The rapid rally was facilitated by profit-hungry investors, who actively participated in trading this year, rejoicing at the recently launched bitcoin investment mechanisms. The price has soared more than 50% since early January, when U.S. regulators gave the go-ahead to launch 11 spot bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds). More than $7.5 billion has been poured into the hot ETFs since launch.
Bitcoin's previous record of $69,000, set in November 2021, was followed by a painful 12-month pullback that wiped out 80% of bitcoin's value and prices collapsed to $15,000. However, now all the "bulls" are back to being geniuses and all the "bears" are calling it a bubble. The cyclical nature of the markets unfolding before our eyes.
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💡 Ideas For MASKUSDT 🪙
📈 MASKUSDT → Pre-breakdown consolidation before growth
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MASKUSDT after the sell-off wave, which was triggered by the BTC correction from ATH, calms down and forms a pre-breakdown consolidation against the range resistance.
The coin forms a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that is a consolidation, but the price exit beyond the boundaries is accompanied by a surge in volume, liquidity and is essentially a distribution of previously accumulated potential.
Most likely, the market is aimed at the breakout of resistance with subsequent growth to the specified targets, for us it is 7.270.
Resistance levels: 5.132, triangle resistance
Support levels: 4.079, 3.090
I expect the continuation of accumulation with a gradual compression to resistance, which may soon lead to a breakout of the upper boundary of consolidation and further growth
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The market has begun to bleed steam after a sharp non-stop run upwards - open interest in blue chips in the likes of #BTC #ETH #SOL is falling sharply, setting the stage for a future resumption of "healthy" growth in crypto. - Santiment data
over the last 24 hours, more than $1 billion worth of positions were liquidated in crypto. 80% of them were longs - Coinglass data
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💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 GBPUSD → Breaking resistance, but news ahead....
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GBPUSD is forging a breakout of correction channel resistance and is apparently preparing for the start of distribution
The dollar index, in anticipation of news, is testing support. Powell's two-day discussions on interest rate, inflation and other nuances begin today. The chance is slim that they will discuss rate cuts as inflation problems are intensifying.
A currency pair before the news or at the time of increasing liquidity can reach the target we mentioned. But the news may negatively affect the GBPUSD price as the regulators may support the dollar index quite strongly.
Consolidation above 1.2685-1.27 could trigger a rise towards 1.2827
Support levels: 1.2685, 1.270
Resistance levels: 1.827
I expect growth to the above target, but on the background of news and increase in liquidity the price may return to the correction range
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The PMI index is released today. The dollar is being squeezed into a narrow range due to the fact that the inflation situation has been deteriorating lately, and the consequences are developing from here.
Analysts generally expect negative data for the US dollar, which from a technical point of view may favorably influence the breakout of support at 103.69 and further decline in the price of the dollar.
Based on the overall data conglomeration I also expect the data to be neutral-negative. On the forex market and gold it can be reflected in the format of an upward impulse.
But we should not forget about the unpredictability of the news.
Higher than expected data will be bullish for the dollar
Lower than expected data will be seen as negative for the dollar.
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BTCUSD soared to record highs on Monday, kicking off a widespread cryptocurrency rally. In a day, the value of the original digital asset rose nearly 10%, or about $120 billion, and nearly broke the record of $69,000 per token set in November 2021.
The flagship was just $250 away from its all-time high, hitting a daily peak of $68,750 apiece. On Tuesday, the animal spirits subsided a bit, with bitcoin prices floating just above the $66,000 mark. Over the past 11 trading days, bitcoin has ended 9 sessions in the green.
Bitcoin's upcoming halving - an event of diminishing rewards - could be the factor that pushes BTC's valuation to a record high. Moreover, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency space just surpassed $2.5 trillion for the first time since late 2021, when the market was falling from a record $3 trillion.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Distribution continues. Is the target of 2150 relevant?
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GOLD strengthens to 2120 and forms a new local consolidation within the distribution after coming out of a prolonged consolidation. Should we wait for further growth?
The price has entered an empty range of 2085 - 2150, within which there is no resistance, which suggests that the price can reach ATH - 2145-2150 quite easily and quickly. Consolidation, from which the price recently came out, lasted for 3 months, which allowed the market to accumulate a huge potential. The realization of such potential may take 20-40% of the duration of this consolidation. But, it is not about the distribution, but about the whole upward movement. Gold continues to form a global bullish trend.
Consolidation is forming on H4. Breakout and consolidation of the price above 2020 will form the potential for further growth to the maximum.
Resistance levels: 2120, 2145, 2150
Support levels: 2110, 2100
I expect growth to continue within the realized distribution phase, as the market has not yet reached its target. Local corrections, traps are possible, but the target may be reached in the near future
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#XAUUSD 👑
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While I'm preparing my analysis for today, here's some interesting stuff:
Gold rises on expectations of Fed rate cuts starting 2p 2024 - BBG
earlier media reported that ahead of the election, Biden and Yellen are urging Powell to start cutting rates
some experts believe that the Fed will not be able to cut the rate at all this year due to the renewed rise in inflation
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Bitcoin nearly tested ATH, stopping at $68,700
May form a small consolidation before a spurt :)
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Another news-filled day
The main focus is on Initial Jobless Claims, as well as Powell's speech.
Analysts expect Initial Jobless Claims to be slightly higher than last week. This is a negative scenario for the dollar. And based on overall market conditions, it makes sense.
But, based on political influence, the Initial Jobless Claims index could be lower than expected, which could support the dollar.
Powell's current stance is the same as before: The rate is at its maximum level. The fight against inflation continues. Inflation is still high. A rate cut is possible this year (It's not spring or summer (maybe)).
All in all, this is all predictable. Let's hear what he has to say today....
By the way, get ready. NonFarm Payrolls tomorrow ;)
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Can the market maker end the bull run?
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GOLD continues to test the highs. Price is trading above ATH 2023y. Bull Run may not be permanent, market maker may form a false resistance breakout amid distribution exhaustion.
The exhaustion of the strong rally can be seen on this chart. Price is at its highs after a strong rally. It is not profitable for the market maker to let everyone make money :). At the moment the probability is quite high to see a false breakdown of 2148-2150 followed by a fall. It's not about trend change, but about correction. The global trend is bullish. But, there is strong news today. Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Powell Testifies. And all this before tomorrow's NonFarm Payrolls. Worth paying attention to these things.
Resistance levels: 2148, 2150
Support levels: 2144, 2125, 2110, 2100
There is a possibility that the market maker is waiting for volume to form on long positions above 2145-2150 to turn price around. The correction after the bull run has a very high percentage of probability at the moment
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The Fed chief will deliver a two-day speech to Congress, and markets will analyze his words looking for any hints of interest rate cuts.
The Dollar Index closed in the red on Tuesday, recording its third straight losing day. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is preparing to deliver a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook. The central bank's top officials will face pressure from Congress during the two-day event, and markets will be watching for developments. Powell will appear before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Thursday.
Congressional testimony could either dampen hopes for a rate cut soon or further bolster investor confidence that a rate cut is imminent. Recall: the Fed has already signaled that a March rate cut has been ruled out. The next meetings of politicians will be held on April 30 - May 1, which gives a chance for a rate cut, and then again on June 11-12. If the rate is not cut at any of these meetings, it will be a tough pill to swallow.
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Powell's two-day monetary policy speech begins today.
But at the same time the ADP NFEC is being published. Analysts expect a significant improvement in the reading from 107K to 149K, which is a possible scenario. And that's a bullish scenario for the dollar....
As for the Fed:
All eyes are on what will be said about the interest rate and inflation. There will be semi-annual monetary policy reports. There is a fairly high probability that the rate will remain unchanged, but the Fed chief may hint at either a possible rate hike or postpone a possible rate cut until the fall. Inflation in the US has been on the rise lately, as well as unemployment rate. This is the main reason for the regulators to support the USD indices.
But still, let's see what the reports say.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Will we reach 2150 before the news comes out?
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GOLD strengthens to 2141.8, but, having failed to reach a few points to ATH, forms a correction on the background of increasing sell-offs, which leaves this gestalt open for the market.
Today-tomorrow there will be quite strong news, all the attention is on Fed head Powell. Interest rates, inflation and other things are likely to be discussed. Based on the general situation in the US, there is a possibility that the dollar will be supported further. This could have a negative impact on gold.
Volatility increases on the news. The important zones now are 2150 and 2125. There is a possibility that before the news or because of high volatility there may be a retest of 2150 before further fall, but there is also a possibility after a small correction to break 2125 and fall to 2100-2085.
Resistance levels: 2150, 2130, 2142
Support levels: 2125, 2110, 2100, 2088
I expect that the news may negatively affect the market. But before that the price may form a bullish impulse. Trade carefully as the news will be strong
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Powell begins his 2-day dcp speech to congressmen today. All eyes on what he will say on future rate trajectory and what he will say on inflation - CNBC
This week, Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy reports to a House committee (Wednesday) and a Senate panel (Thursday). The message is not expected to change and Powell is expected to make it clear that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates - BBG
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USDJPY has ranged between ¥150.00 and ¥150.90 over the past few days as currency traders have been slow to act. The exchange rate is above the ¥150.00 intervention level, meaning that Japanese officials could step in and support the yen at any time.
With that in mind, the dollar is expecting volatility on Wednesday when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies on Capitol Hill. Markets expect the chief banker to lay out a timetable for potential interest rate cuts in his speech to Republicans and Democrats.
The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, is floating near a three-month high against the weak yen. In Japan, policymakers are gradually ramping up the pace of talks to move away from ultra loose monetary policy. Analysts expect the first steps to be taken in the second quarter of this year.
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💡 Ideas For KAVAUSDT 💰
📈 KAVAUSDT → Readiness to move into the distribution phase
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KAVA breaks the triangle resistance, which provokes the formation of a strong impulse. But now the price meets the flat resistance at 0.954
On W1, the coin is starting to come to life, but is still very far away from the overall altcoin market. Trading volumes are growing when the resistance is broken, which indicates that the market is ready to realize the accumulated potential.
On D1 we are interested in the level of 0.954. A correction is possible, but we need to wait for a breakthrough and price consolidation above this area, which will be a confirmation of the market's readiness to go higher.
Support levels: 0.865, 0.694
Resistance levels: 0.954
I expect a final exit of the price from the global downtrend and subsequent growth to 1.28 and 1.55.
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