Brief overview and determination of FOREX direction
#EURUSD 🇪🇺/🇺🇸 - LONG 📈
A shakeout is forming on Thursday, the price may test the support at 1.07955. At the moment there are chances of growth from the support. Breakout and consolidation below the level will change our plans.
#GBPUSD 🇬🇧/🇺🇸 - LONG 📈
The price is inside the main range and is forming above the level. Most likely we have a chance to see a small growth.
#USDJPY 🇺🇸/🇯🇵 - LONG 📈
Growth continues. Yen successfully fixes above the level
#NZDUSD 🇳🇿/🇺🇸 - LONG 📈
False breakdown of resistance and retest. The priority is the continuation of growth. But before the resistance breakout a correction may be formed
#USDCHF 🇺🇸/🇨🇭 - SHORT 📉
False breakdown and price consolidation below the level. The odds are higher on the downside.
#USDCAD 🇺🇸/🇨🇦 - NEUTRAL
Consolidation continues. The price is standing still.
#XAUUSD 👑 - LONG 📈
The price is going up. An idea was published, where I fully analyzed everything. On Monday there may be a small correction before the growth.
#DXY 💲 (Dollar) - LONG 📈
It looks like a false breakout, but the long shadow of the candle makes me uncomfortable. The index growth is the priority.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → New reasons for the growing interest in gold
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GOLD strengthened last week and closed with +1.2% at 2035.375. Price returns to the flat range that is forming within the uptrend
Let's move a bit away from the local situation and take a look at the global chart. The global uptrend with variable trends indicates a rather huge interest from buyers, which is not subsiding. The pressure on the resistance, which restrains the growth beyond 2100 continues to increase and most likely in the medium term there will be continued attempts to break through 2075 - 2100 and further strengthening towards 2300-2500.
As for the range. The market continues to form a global flat on the background of the Fed's tough policy. Buyers are holding back all attempts to fall, which bears are trying to forge on the background of negative news for gold.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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💡 Ideas For BTCUSD 🪙
📈 BITCOIN → Consolidation after rally characterizes the uptrend ↑
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At the moment the price is in consolidation between 52525 and 50649. Another support retest in the form of a false breakout is formed and the price is consolidating again. There are still no clear reasons for a support breakout. It is necessary to continue watching the price on H1.
Regarding the current situation, I would single out two possible scenarios for buying.
Scenario 1. High chance of realization.
A pullback from the support is formed. Now it is important to wait for resistance retest. Slow price approach to the level and formation of compression or pre-breakout consolidation relative to 52545 will be a strong signal for the breakout.
Scenario 2. As consolidation is forming, the market maker may extend the range from the current range to the support: 48435.
The price should not go below 48K as this level is a strong support area. A breakout of 50649 and 50333 could fororimize an impulse (liquidation) to the lower level, which could be a range support. But a retest or false breakout will form an increase in liquidity, which will give the opportunity to form an impulse with the aim of breaking through the resistance 52545 and realize further growth.
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#BTCUSD 🪙
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💡 Ideas For BTCUSD 🪙
📈 BITCOIN → Consolidation after rally characterizes the uptrend ↑
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BTC updates the high to 53K and goes into consolidation. A flat 52500 - 50500 is formed after a strong rally, which is a strong enough signal of a confident market.
Interest in the asset continues to grow and on the back of distribution, the price updates the December 2021 high after exiting the consolidation in early February. Both technically and fundamentally, the BTC is doing quite confidently. The next milestone, which is very important for the market, is the halving, which is expected in early April. There is a high probability that the price may test strong support zones before the halving, but there are no clear technical signals for this yet.
Resistance levels: 52545
Support levels: 50649 & 50333
While the consolidation stage is forming, the market maker can use any opportunities to accumulate liquidity. It can be a false breakout, shakeouts or liquidation in order to reach deeper levels. The important thing is to wait for the right reaction, which will be a prerequisite for a breakout or false breakdown that will give the opportunity to open a trade at the best price.
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#BTCUSD 🪙
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Trump has stated that he still only likes one currency, the dollar. But also said BTC has gotten a life of its own because of popularity. Says regulation is needed.
Trump has previously been a strong critic of BTC...
PS: it is likely that if Trump takes over as US President, there will be an additional positive impact for BTC :)
The situation is changing dramatically.
Today, both technically and fundamentally gold was ready to go down.
BUT!
The geopolitical situation is changing. Against the background of introduction of new packages of sanctions from the Western countries, Europe and Great Britain towards Russia, former CIS countries and Asian countries, gold as a safe instrument in times of crisis again becomes a haven for investors' money.
Technically, against this background, a false breakdown of 2020 is formed and the price strengthens to 2040
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The market will be overheated again in the near term due to the unstable environment.
The reaction over the weekend may cool down a bit, but the residual effect in the first half of next week may remain. Unless, of course, new sanctions are imposed or destabilization occurs during these days.
As for #BTCUSD:
Since the price is in consolidation 52500 - 50500, this is a very good sign.
A classic situation: after a strong rise there is a correction of 30-50% from the high.
Bitcoin is not falling after the growth and this indicates a strong technical part.
I would highlight two possible scenarios right now:
1) A rebound from support and a retest of 52500. A pre-breakout consolidation around the upper boundary with a subsequent breakout and a rise to 56K.
2) Consolidation is not enough for the Market Maker and it can make a breakout of support and correction to 48435. This scenario may end with a false breakout of 48435 or 48000 with subsequent growth and return to the range. And then everything is the same as in the first scenario: retest, pre-breakdown consolidation, breakout and growth to 56K
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Gold has been moving reluctantly lately...
We have been waiting for this target for almost a week :)
And here, finally, yesterday we reached it 😎
Beautiful movement after the test of resistance
+200 pips in our pocket ⚡
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Negative fundamental background and support retest
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GOLD as we expected, is declining. False breakdown of 2031, retest of global resistance and negative fundamental background leads to the price losing 0.9% from the local high
There is little news today, the fundamental backdrop for gold persists, as does the outflow of GOLD-ETFs from the market, which is a generally negative scenario. The dollar continues to strengthen, as well as forming a candlestick pattern that confirms the general policy.
Technically, gold is testing 2015 and may form a rebound to 2020-2025, after which the market may wait for a retest of 2015-2016 with the aim of breaking the support and further decline to the mentioned targets. Both technically and fundamentally, the overall picture suggests further price decline.
Resistance levels: 2021.5, 2027
Support levels: 2015, 2010, 2000, 1995
The situation is generally bearish. The fundamental background and TA determine for us the medium-term potential, which is directed towards the realization of the movement to 2000-1990
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#XAUUSD 👑
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US - Initial Jobless Claims = 201k (expected 217k / previously 212k)
Just what I was talking about happened 😎
It's not hard to analyze. When the market is adequate everything makes sense :)
The dollar is supported by the market again
That's the high timeframe picture I was referring to.
I think that from a technical point of view there is no need for unnecessary words. Everything is obvious, simple and clear. Isn't it?)))
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💡 Ideas For AGLDUSDT 💰
📈 AGLDUSDT → Pre-break consolidation. Possible growth of 30-60%
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AGLD is forming quite an interesting set-up that can realize a growth potential of 30-60% in the short-medium term
On the high timeframe we see the formation of resistance at 1.404 and a sufficient number of retests of this area. In general, altcoins are strengthening quite strongly following the flagship, but AGLD is lagging behind, and the market is held back from the transition from neutral to bullish phase by only one level.
A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming around 1.400. Slow approach and gradual squeezing to 1.400 will signal a breakout soon. The price may go straight up without consolidation above the level.
Resistance levels: 1.404
Support levels: 1.286, 1.146
I expect a breakout of the resistance indicated on the chart, followed by the realization of the potential of 30 - 60%. Targets are indicated on the chart
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#AGLDUSDT 💰
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Markets are already starting to speculate whether the next Fed rate move will be upward rather than downward - BBG
former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said that such a scenario cannot be ruled out, given the ambiguous inflation dynamics
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → New reasons for the growing interest in gold
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Let's pay attention to Friday, February 23: Gold receives an unexpected inflow of funds due to the sanctions imposed by the U.S., Canada, the UK and European countries against Russia, the former CIS countries and Asian countries. Against the backdrop of a possible crisis, money is looking for a safe haven and is finding it in gold. Accordingly, the interest to the metal is growing and most likely the price will continue its growth to higher highs.
Expectations for the coming week: Flat is forming on D1, after realizing the potential relative to the range support the market gets a target in the form of flat resistance. Important levels are shown on the screenshots above. Fundamentally, the gold market is still under the pressure of sellers, but at the same time the interest in the metal, against the background of geopolitical crisis is growing, which favorably affects the price. In the medium term it is worth considering to prioritize buying, because technically and fundamentally the situation has shifted a bit, but we should not forget that there are no trend rules inside the flat. Price is moving between levels.
Resistance levels: 2044.6, 2060, 2065.46
Support levels: Fibo: 0.618, 0.5, 0.382
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#XAUUSD 👑
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The $51,500+- level may now become an important support zone - almost 500,000 BTC were bought on it - Glassnode data
Читать полностью…Friends, if you want to support, feel free to follow the link, leave comments and likes 🙂
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/1s1EtzcF-BITCOIN-Consolidation-after-rally-characterizes-the-uptrend/
This applies to the market as a whole.
There may be a shift of capital from risky (sanctions assets) to safe assets (hedging).
Safe assets are gold and for some it is already becoming bitcoin.
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EURUSD is a perfect maneuver. The target was reached after a few days.
When I published the idea, a lot of people told me it was a mistake. And that I should sell. Ha-Ha 😆
+ 100 pips in our pocket ⚡️
The EURUSD pair had a quiet start to Friday's trading. The exchange rate rose to $1.0830 and sought to complete the eighth consecutive day of growth. There are no important data today and the session promises to bring more technical and less fundamental movements.
Speaking of technical analysis, current market prices are hitting the 200-day moving average, a long-term indicator used to determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish. Simply put, a price below the line means a bearish trend and a price above the line means a bullish trend.
That said, the US dollar has been unable to hold on to its short-term gains caused by the latest Fed meeting minutes. According to the minutes, rates are likely to remain at 23-year highs of 5.50-5.25% at least until the Fed's late April meeting, ahead of the upcoming March meeting.
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💡 Ideas For EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸
📈 EURUSD → Favorable background for the currency pair decline
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EURUSD confirms the boundaries of the range 1.0887 - 1.0724 and is inside the flat. Touching resistance and the news on Thursday define medium-term targets for the currency pair
Yesterday the market received a portion of positive fundamental data for $, based on which the regulators continue to support the dollar index, which forms a candlestick pattern that portends further growth, which may negatively affect the euro.
The price forms touching 1.0887 and subsequent decline to 1.0830. At the moment consolidation is forming below this level, which can accumulate the potential for further decline to the area of 1.0724.
Resistance levels: 1.0830, 1.0887
Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0724
I expect a fall on the basis of TA and FA. Consolidation below 1.0830 forms the potential for further decline to 1.0780 and even to 1.0724.
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#EURUSD 🇪🇺/🇺🇸
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U.S. heading toward stagflation, which would be terrible news for stocks - JPMorgan
JPMorgan warns that today's economic situation could move toward the stagflation of the 1970s era, characterized by high inflation and low growth.
JPMorgan has previously expressed the view that the U.S. could see a new wave of rising inflation - as in the 1970s
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Today is quite a busy day for news. Yesterday, during the FOMC meeting it was said: The Fed representatives expressed caution about starting to cut rates too soon. - This once again confirms the fact that inflation remains high, rates will not be cut before the summer and in general this is a scenario for the strengthening of the dollar index.
Today we should pay attention to:
13:30 GMT - Initial Jobless Claims
14:45 GMT - SP500 PMI
20:15 GMT - FOMC Member Harker Speaks
21:30 GMT - Fed's Balance Sheet
22:00 GMT - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Focus on Initial Jobless Claims:
This is the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the last week. This is the earliest US economic data.
Analysts expect the data to remain roughly flat, with a slight +3K increase.
But, the previous two periods the data was lower than expected, which was positive for the overall situation. It is highly probable that this time we may see data below the expected 217K. If this happens, the dollar will continue to rise, which may have a positive impact on the market.
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Retest of a previously broken level. Panic zone
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GOLD is testing local levels in the correction phase and heading towards descending triangle resistance. There are several strong levels crossing in the area of 2035-2037. What to expect from the price?
The price is in the correction phase testing the symmetrical triangle resistance as well as the previously broken ascending support line. Technically, gold is in a stalemate situation, as well as in the selling zone. The crossing area of strong levels is at 2035-2040.
Most likely, before a possible further fall, the price may test 2035-2040 with a false breakout. But, there is news ahead and we should not forget about their nature of unpredictability.
Resistance levels: 2035, 2037, 2040
Support levels: 2030, 2020, 2016
Fundamentally, gold is weaker against the dollar. Technically, we have no trend, only flat. There is news ahead and on the background of the news, I expect that the price may continue to fall after the correction phase. Targets remain the same
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Note the left half of the image. That's an OANDA broker.
I have encountered such maneuvers from this broker several times.
And it's not normal ❗❗
In the example, we have a gold chart.
On February 19, a huge candle is drawn with ATR = 170 pips 🤬 , when on average at all other brokers (I checked about 15-20 other companies), a candle on H1 forms ATR = 30-50 pips. (3-4 times less)
Can you imagine what kind of market liquidation OANDA clients had 😱? Simply because of the drawn shadow of the candlestick.
There can be many reasons for such a maneuver, but when it happens only at one broker, then the problem is clearly there.
⚠️Always analyze the brokers you choose. Take it seriously as you are trusting them with your money.
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If anything I recommend:
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