⚠️A small explanation of the false breakdown:
There are two types of false breakdowns:
💠The simple false breakdown (quick movement) which occurs from 5 minutes to 4 hours
💠A complex false breakout, which can occur from one day to several days.
🔸The simple false-break tests the level, gathers the buyers and sellers bids and then reverses.
🔸A complex false-break works harder. On the first day the price may break the level, trade above it and close above it, which confirms the fixing of the price to continue the move, but the next day when all the players have entered the market to continue the move, the big player brings the price back below the level or zone and thus fools all the players who entered correctly.
‼️Most importantly, a correctly identified zone or level will allow you to correctly trade a false breakout
🔺And one more thing: all of the strongest moves occur only after a false-break!
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US central bank is expected to hold borrowing costs steady on Wednesday. The higher-for-longer rates play buoyed the greenback.
DXY sprinted to start a packed week with key economic reports and a sizzling earnings season.
The Federal Reserve comes forward on Wednesday to present its view on the trajectory of the economy, and, more importantly, to update its benchmark interest rate. Markets are pricing in a no-hike event with Fed officials maintaining rates at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.50%.
Further down the week, jobs data is on deck for Friday. The nonfarm payrolls report for January is expected to show US employers added a cool 173,000 new hires. A number too high above that figure will complicate the Fed’s outlook with three rate cuts planned for the year ahead.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Resistance breakout in the absence of volumes
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GOLD is breaking through several resistance lines. But there are a few nuances that hint that this breakout may be false
On the two charts from the high timeframe, we see a breakout of resistance. Technically, we should expect further growth. But I am very much confused by the lack of volumes. This fact suggests that traders do not support this movement, which can be formed with manipulative sense before the flow of strong news on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
Technically, the Market Maker may test 2045 and 2048.8 as this zone is also an area of interest. But there is still a high chance of a false breakout with further decline.
Resistance levels: 2039.4, 2045, 2048.8
Support levels: 2035, 2030, 2025, 2020
The situation is tense. The market continues to stand still before strong news. Within the current range, we should expect trading to continue inside its boundaries. However, at the moment, there is still pressure from sellers on the back of a strong dollar
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Musk announced that his company Neuralink has successfully implanted an implant in a human brain
That's cool news 👍
PS: Can you imagine how in a few (perhaps a few decades) years we will be trading without a computer, all we have to do is turn on our brains 😁😁
Let's analyze the situation a little bit, why it was a potential opportunity to sell profitably 🤩:
1) Retest of descending resistance and breakout of the trendline, after which an impulse is formed, but there is no volume during the breakout. Obviously, this is a price manipulation before further strong movement.
2) The market maker forms several traps on the initial breakout and retest on the retracement. BUT! Volumes only appear at the moment of momentum before the second rise to 2035). The price is in the right place, but we don't need growth now, and the market maker doesn't have the liquidity to grow. and fundamentally gold is not ready to grow.
3) The second part of the traps is forming - the false breakdown of 2035. After collecting some liquidity, increasing volumes, forming a trap,
the market-maker forms a false breakout, and the price falls, as it should. But it falls after the second movement after the unnecessary passengers were dropped off the train.
he-he 😎
The original crypto ended the week in the green after post-ETF selling appeared to have bottomed out.
Bitcoin prices BTCUSD recouped some of its recent losses last week after buying optimism added 8% to the token in the past three days. The orange coin hit a bottom of $38,400 just before crypto participants swooped in and scooped up some of the discounted digital goods.
The choppy trading swept across the token space right after US regulators approved the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Now, a pack of eleven ETFs that trade actual Bitcoin are available to US investors, big and small. But the buildup to the launch turned out to be more lucrative to buyers than the event itself.
Early on Monday, prices were sitting near the $42,500 mark, getting ready to test demand after five straight days of gains. Still, despite the highly anticipated ETF launch in early January, Bitcoin is looking to wrap up the volatile month in the red, flashing a modest loss of about 2%.
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TradingView has published a contest:
"Community challenge: Share Your Best Trading Idea!"
I have written a rough, possible scenario for gold for this year.
Do you think the yellow metal has a chance to realize such a scenario?))
Medium to Long-term outlook for gold:
1) Falling until spring, as the Fed will be forming its stance on interest rates until spring. At that time the dollar is either flat or rising.
2) A strong zone for gold at 0.5 fibo (1981) or 0.618 fibo (1933). The market could test these zones by early to mid spring.
3) The Fed starts to cut rates on the back of improving inflation. The dollar is falling, which is favorable for the yellow metal.
4) Geopolitical conflicts continue in the world
5) Gold increases interest from investors and traders
6) A rebound from the mentioned support areas is formed.
7) Price tests 2075, after which the level breaks.
8) The price may test 2150 this year (the area of intersection with the trend line from August 2011).
9) On the background of high interest, fundamental value and strength, global bullish trend and the realization of global accumulation in the form of an ascending triangle, within the upward momentum, the price may test the 2300-2400 area as resistance of a new global range: 2300-2400 (resistance) and 2075 (support).
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Resistance Retest. What is the chance of a short-squeeze?
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GOLD has been testing trend resistance since the opening of the session. At the same time, the dollar index continues to consolidate, but within the upward trend
Regarding the trend resistance XAU we observe a retest, if we pay attention to the volumes, they are absent. What is the probability of a short-squeeze in such a case?
The market may go from local downward movement to a sideways phase, as evidenced by the unclear market environment and global flat trading in the whole forex.
The new range in gold could be: 2035-2020, or 2060-2020.
There is an important resistance ahead - 2035, which may be of interest to the market maker because there is a huge pool of liquidity above it, which can be determined by the volume profile.
Resistance levels: 2035, 2039.4
Support levels: 2020, 2010
At the moment it is worth looking at the resistance at 2035 and 2039.4.
* A false break of the lower one will generate signals for the continuation of the range formation. In this case, the price will head towards the support.
* But a breakthrough and price consolidation above 2039.4 will form a signal for the continuation of growth to 2040-2060.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Brief overview and determination of FOREX direction
#EURUSD 🇪🇺/🇺🇸 - SHORT 📉
Price is squeezing towards support. Against the backdrop of weak market and pre-breakdown consolidation 1.08315 may be broken
#GBPUSD 🇬🇧/🇺🇸 - SHORT 📉
Consolidation continues. Most likely, on the background of the growing dollar, the pair may slip to 1.26329
#USDJPY 🇺🇸/🇯🇵 - LONG 📈
The price has tested the support area. The growth continues. Local resistance at 148.3 may be broken soon
#NZDUSD 🇳🇿/🇺🇸 - SHORT 📉
Retest of resistance confirms the market's intentions to continue falling. Target 0.60486
#USDCHF 🇺🇸/🇨🇭 - LONG 📈
False break of resistance and price consolidation below the level, but, the fall may not happen, most likely the price will stand still
#USDCAD 🇺🇸/🇨🇦 - LONG 📈
Support retest and the market buys back part of the fall. Buyers may continue to test the resistance at 1.3487, breaking through which will start the impulse to 1.3615.
#XAUUSD 👑 - SHORT 📉
The price looks weak and ready to decline on a break of 2015.65 support.
#DXY 💲 (Dollar) - LONG 📈
Fundamentally, the price may rise. Technically, indes is consolidating above the previously broken resistance
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Pressure on XAU price. Consolidation below MA-50
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Technically, on the local timeframe we see the formation of a bearish price channel, earlier the price overcame the 2035-2020 consolidation support, at the moment the market is in the correction phase and retesting the previously broken area.
On D1 the gold is consolidating below the daily MA-50 and essentially opens us a new path for a possible decline, as now the market and whales may be interested in the 2000-1984 area, before a possible further rise. From the opening the market may form another retest of the 2020-2025 resistance area before continuing the local trend
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Everyone have a great time this weekend! 🥂
Tomorrow I will prepare a review of #Forex and #GOLD
Today continue to follow the cryptocurrency, if there will be interesting news or installations, I will definitely share.
By the way, we managed to buy #BTC yesterday at the best price in the VIP before its growth by 5% 🌟
💡 Ideas For BTCUSD 🪙
📈 BITCOIN → Why the 42K level is important to us
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When will the correction end?
At the moment this phase is still active, a break of support 40700 - 41K will form a continuation of the decline, which in the medium term may head towards 48K, then 37K and 34K, where there is a huge pool of liquidity from buyers. The market may be interested in liquidating some passengers before further rally.
But, in the current position, the correction phase may be over as the asset still has high interest. Breakout and consolidation of the price above 42K may confirm the market's intentions that it is ready for further growth in the near future, and Breakout and consolidation of the price above 44.5 - 45K will confirm the end of the correction. In this case the further target will be 48.2K and higher.
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#BTCUSD 🪙
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The number of experts expecting the US dollar to strengthen against other currencies is actively growing - BBG survey
Strong economic growth in the US strengthens expectations that the Fed will postpone rate cuts until later - FT
💡 Ideas For XRPUSDT 🪙
📈 XRPUSDT → A favorable prospect within the uptrend
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XRPUSDT is testing trend support after exiting the triangle. Traders' interest in Ripple continues to grow on the unstable fundamental background
On W1 we see a formed bottom, the bulls do not let the price to this area, continuing to cumulate the potential within the framework of gradually rising prices. An uptrend continues to form on the chart, but globally, Ripple is squeezed under strong trend resistance.
On D1, price is testing support and one of the key liquidity areas. There is a chance that price could still test 0.493 in a false breakout format before further upside, but even at current price positions, the market has good potential for further upside to 0.7325.
Support levels: 0.493, 0.420, trend support
Resistance levels: 0.585, 0.648, 0.7325
Since the price movement is limited by a number of reasons both fundamentally and technically by the range boundaries, it is highly likely that the XRP movement will continue from support to resistance
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#XRPUSDT 🪙
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That's what I mean 👆
It is a strange behavior for the market when there is no volume when resistance is broken.
In all likelihood, this could be a normal speculative move.
Thus, the chance for a false breakout increases as the market maker is only testing the area within the targets he is pursuing.
Quite an interesting environment and worth watching for price behavior relative to the levels and zones I described above in the idea.
💡Ideas For GBPJPY 🇬🇧🇯🇵
📈 GBPJPY → False breakdown and obvious bearish pressure
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GBPJPY is forming a false break of the resistance at 188.3 and is forming a consolidation, within which it can be seen that the market is under pressure from sellers
On D1 we see the formation of the global range 188.3 - 179.9. The price is forging a retest of the resistance of the range in the format of a false breakdown. After that consolidation will be formed. So far it is difficult to call it a pre-breakdown consolidation, because on local timeframes the price movement is preparing for a price drop. Local highs are gradually decreasing and the probability of breaking through the base of consolidation - 187.38 level is increasing. In this case there is a probability of starting correction to 185.9, 184.3. Globally the market has no trend, because the price is in sideways movement, and locally it is still bullish, but when breaking through the base of 187.38, the market phase may change.
Resistance levels: 188.3, 190
Support levels: 187.37
Indices of GBP, JPY currencies are standing still, GBP looks more optimistic, but on the background of geopolitics it gives prerequisites for correction, which can negatively affect the currency pair.
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#GBPJPY 🇬🇧🇯🇵
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Pressure on XAU price. Consolidation below MA-50
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GOLD continues to forge a bearish correction amid a localized decline in interest due to a strengthening dollar index
On D1 we can observe the sawing of 2025 level on the background of strong struggle, buyers have formed quite a huge pool of liquidity below 2025-2020. But on the background of market pressure the price still enters the range 2025 - 1984. And we can see it on the background of confirmation in the form of price consolidation below the resistance.
There is a lot of strong news in the coming week, starting from the FOMC, FEC speech, which will obviously discuss the further situation with inflation and interest rate, and NonFarm Payrolls on Friday. This period is expected to be quite volatile, but only in its second half.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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The price of #XRP 💰 has seen a marked increase today, rising 3.2% in the last 24 hours to reach $0.531. Although the price of XRP has fallen 15.85% over the past 30 days, the recent rise suggests a reversal of fortunes. Simultaneously, the 24-hour trading volume of XRP rose 12.06% to reach $902,311,943.
One of the key factors behind this surge is the positive changes in the XRP ecosystem. Today, Santiment, a leading analytics platform, reported that the XRP Ledger has reached a significant milestone. It was noted that the XRP Ledger now boasts 5.02 million individual wallets holding more than zero XRP coins, the highest number in more than 10 years of public trading.
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💡 Ideas For BTCUSD 🪙
📈 BITCOIN → Why the 42K level is important to us
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BTCUSD is not reacting to the negative news about Grayscale transfers to exchanges, and and the recovering interest allows the market to redeem the correction a bit.
The correction phase is not over, as the price has not yet left the boundaries that can confirm the end of this phase.
The market is recovering from a false break of the 40181 range support. Long-squeeze eliminated the buyers' orders in the support zone and within the range the price is testing one of the important 42K levels.
At the same time:
• BTC for the second few days did not react to the negative news about Grayscale transfers to exchanges
• Flagship absorbed the news that the US government intends to sell the coin for $130 million
Interest in bitcoin is high, but there is quite an important event ahead for the market. Halving is expected in early April and statistically the market is shedding ahead of a possible rally. Whales have an interest to get in on more favorable positions, but at the same time the positive fundamental and technical background attracts investors even at current price levels.
Price positioning relative to the 42000 level will determine the future outlook for the market.
The consolidation of BTC above 42K may form the potential for strengthening the price to the range boundary - 44500, and the consolidation of the price below 42K will continue the decline to retest the support.
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#BTCUSD 🪙
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