Gold prices closed higher last Friday after U.S. and British strikes on Yemen. Over the weekend, the U.S. again launched airstrikes on Yemen - RTRS
This is affecting and will continue to affect the price of gold and other commodities, commodity assets.
UPD:
Britain does not rule out new strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen
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💡Ideas For NZDUSD 🇦🇺🇺🇸
📈 NZDUSD → Consolidation after support breakout
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NZDUSD continues to consolidate in a narrow range as uncertain sentiment is also seen in the dollar index amid a challenging fundamental environment
The DXY has been consolidating below resistance for two and a half weeks, which in standard practice is a strong downside signal as resistance cannot be broken.
NZDUSD pair broke uptrend support earlier and consolidation is forming in the selling zone between 0.6250 and 0.6208. But, it is important for us to wait for the confirmation of the sell signal, which will be the breakout of 0.6208 and the subsequent consolidation of the price below the level, which will open for us the target in the form of support at 0.6086. Moving averages also indicate consolidation, which may be followed by a distribution phase.
Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6366
Support levels: 0.6208, 0.6180, 0.6086
There is a high probability that the currency pair on the background of the subsequent weakening of the dollar index can still break the support and head towards the target indicated by us.
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The "sell the news" scenario for BTC after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs has not yet been worked out. The essence of the scenario is that the market gets leverage for further sales (now a large volume of BTC is poured into the market for sales) and a correction is formed in order to "get rid" of extra passengers before halving. No one knows how long the correction will be formed. Halving in the spring.
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- K33 Research previously stated that they believe there is a 75% chance of a "sell the news" scenario for BTC after spot BTC-ETFs are approved
- JPMorgan and CryptoQuant also stated that they believe ETF approval could be a "sell the news" event, followed by a possible correction in BTC.
- SEC, just before ETF approval, urged against FOMO.
- Matrixport released a review stating that during the halving years, BTC was usually dumped by March
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💡 Ideas For BTCUSD 🪙
📈 BTCUSD → A "sell the news" scenario? What happened?
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BTCUSD tested a new high of 49K amid increased volatility due to positive news for the asset. But, as we can see, what many did not expect was a strong sell-off.
I have been talking about sell-offs from the 48250 level for a while now, since mid-November 2023, the moment BTC entered a new range.
The 48250 area is a strong resistance with a huge pool of liquidity and it is quite logical to see a false breakdown followed by sell-offs.
In addition, strong bullish news related to SEC approval of applications for spot BTC-ETF forms the opposite direction to the expected price movement:
At the moment, the "Sell The News" scenario is developing - this maneuver includes a possible price correction of 10-20-30%.
It is logical that the price cannot grow all the time and the asset pricing includes corrections to maintain adequate liquidity in the market.
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Forex traders shrugged off a hotter-than-expected consumer price figure for December, leading the dollar lower.
The dollar index 💲 retreated early on Friday, continuing its decline from a day earlier when a surprise bump in inflation caught forex traders in a limbo. December’s consumer price index showed price pressures reared up again, landing at 3.4% against a 3.2% consensus
First moves post-news saw the US dollar sprinting fast, gaining around 0.6% to 102.80. By the end of the session, the greenback was back at its opening levels near 102.30. Traders appear to have maintained their firm belief that the Federal Reserve will indeed trim interest rates three times as indicated at the central bank’s final meeting of 2023
Against that backdrop, the dollar was fairly flat to close the day, after the elevated inflation-fueled whipsawing wore off. The EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸 pair went back to grind its way toward the $1.10 threshold, and the #USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 slipped from a one-month high of ¥146.41 to levels around ¥145.40
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → It's a stalemate. The market can grow
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The most interesting thing is that three times in a row the US market received fundamentally bullish news. The DXY has been in the same place for 10 days now and cannot pass through resistance, which speaks volumes about the state of the index and the mood of the market. The market is overheated and in all likelihood the index is preparing for a decline. Gold is not so eager to react to bearish news and at any opportunity the market tries to buy back the fall.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 GBPUSD → A technically weak dollar will strengthen the pair
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GBPUSD continues to form consolidation in the ascending triangle format. Bulls are gaining strength and trying to break through the resistance zone 1.2780 - 1.2800
The currency pair is in a global uptrend and according to a number of prerequisites this direction may continue.
If we pay attention to the DXY, we can see that the index does not react to bullish news at all and apparently due to the overheated condition the index is ready to decline. In this case, this maneuver will be favorable for the pound sterling, which can strengthen the pair.
On the chart we see an ascending channel and a pre-failure consolidation in the format of an ascending triangle. The resistance 1.2780 - 1.2800 plays a key role. Breakout of this zone and price consolidation above the level will form a bullish potential, which will confirm the breakout of the level.
Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2615
Resistance levels: 1.2780, 1.2888
I expect a breakout of resistance under the pressure of buyers on the limit resistance zone.
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#GBPUSD 🇬🇧/🇺🇸
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CPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.4% instead of 3.2%
CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% instead of 0.2%
Initial Jobless Claims 202K instead of 210K
Overall this is bullish news for the dollar.
Gold's correction may continue
ETH on yesterday's News related to btc-etf approval react very interestingly.
Earlier I published the idea and signal in the VIP group.
The realization was quite fast and the price has already reached the short-term target of 6%
The reaction of ETH is related to the fact that if BTC-ETF is approved, ETH-ETF will be approved in spring, which increases the interest in this asset
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The #GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸 was not successful in its attempt to cross a recent resistance zone. The UK economy is expected to show growth for November.
• Recent consolidation comes ahead of the keenly-watched GDP data. The UK will publish on Friday its gross domestic product report for November and forex speculators are eyeing growth. Expectations are pinned for a 0.2% growth increase on a monthly basis
• In the longer run, Britain’s pound has made solid progress against the weakening US dollar. Since its low point in early October, the sterling has added a hefty 5.5%, or about 650 pips, against the greenback as the US currency is failing to fight off increased selling pressure prompted by prospects for interest rate cuts.
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First pre-trade prints with spot BTC-ETF from Grayscale
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the start of spot BTC-ETF trading is expected today - a special date:
"January 11 marks exactly 15 years since the launch of the first BTC node ... written by programmer Hal Finney."
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💡 Ideas For APTUSDT 💰
📈 APTUSDT → Potential for further growth
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APT forms support 8.08 and pre-breakdown consolidation, within which it breaks the trend resistance.
After breaking the resistance, the market forms a local high of 11.1 after which it tests the previously broken trend resistance and the support of 8.08. The market is trying to change the trend and it is logical on the growth of the total market capitalization. Technically, the coin has a good enough potential to catch up with other coins in growth.
It is worth paying attention to the zone of 9.220 - 8.08. The bulls are trying to hold this area, increasing their volume. It is worth waiting for the price to consolidate above this area to confirm the bullish potential. The moving averages are supporting the market, and the false break of MA-50 gives a good signal.
Resistance levels: 10.9, 12.67
Support levels: 9.22, 8.08
It is worth considering the potential for buying at the moment. A price consolidation above 9.22 will give a good place to open a trade.
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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, reflecting on Standard Chartered's projections of $50-100 billion in inflows into spot BTC-ETFs in 2024, said that even an inflow of just $15 billion in the first year after launch is a lot, much more than the initial inflows into gold or U.S. government bond ETFs
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Earlier, Fundstrat, expressed the view that BlackRock's approval of the BTC-ETF could lead to the largest ETF launch in history
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• The USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 pair slipped to start Tuesday trading and rebounded off the 200-day moving average. The exchange rate dropped to ¥143.50 before bulls stepped in and scooped up some discounted trades. Nevertheless, the buying momentum was not enough to flip the pair into the green and it is still on track to close its third straight day in decline
• Volatility has recently picked up as traders reassess their positions in the US dollar in the midst of a creeping US labor market. A continued trend of rising employment has the potential to wean the Federal Reserve away from its intention to cut interest rates at least three times this year
• In Japan, headline inflation for Tokyo came in at a modest 2.4% in December, down from 2.6% in the prior month. The concentrated consumer-price print generally carries less weight than the national CPI figure, due in roughly three weeks. Before that, on Thursday, markets will be parsing the US inflation print, expected to land at 3.2% for December
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → The price will continue to rise provided...
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GOLD formed a rally at the end of last week and broke the resistance of the downtrend. The reason is another armed crisis, but in Southwest Asia
On Monday, the market opened the session with price strengthening and retesting 2058. The mood of the market is such that the price growth may continue in the medium term. There is no sense to pay attention to the dollar now, temporarily the correlation in the pair is decreasing and fundamentally gold looks quite a strong asset.
Today the volatility may be lower than the daily average due to the fact that it is a holiday weekend in the USA.
Technically, rlinda. com, as the market is testing the level of 2050, the price consolidation above this area will form a bullish potential, which in the medium term can push the price to 2070, 2100, 2150. It is also worth paying attention to the moving averages.
Support levels: 2050, MA50+MA200, 2039
Resistance levels: 2058, 2064, 2070
The market is testing the support, against which gold can strengthen on the background of favorable fundamental background for the asset
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#XAUUSD 👑
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Why could the metal's price rise continue?
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GOLD closes the trading week above the opening, which is quite a positive sign, as the market has obvious reasons for the rally, which can continue up to 2150
We are living in a time of a 30 year record number of armed conflicts with over 180 clashes. This is all affecting the market, including gold. A recent reason for gold's rally was the military operation against the Houthis in Yemen by the U.S. and the Great Britain for the freedom of the sea route. As part of the rally, the price is overcoming bearish resistance and forming further preconditions for a possible rise.
There is not much fundamentally significant news in the coming week, the world is focused on the war in the Middle East, which is still ongoing and the new armed conflict in Southwest Asia. rlinda. com This is pre-determining the medium-term outlook for gold. Gold on the other hand breaks trend resistance, which temporarily detaches the correlation between the assets, hence the format of technical and fundamental analysis changes a bit.
The coming week may see a retest of local support before a further retest. Now all eyes are focused on the resistance of the global range 2050-2070 and it is likely that in the medium term gold may break this level and start to form a new global range
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#XAUUSD 👑
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all Fed speakers since the beginning of the year have amicably turned on exactly the same record:
1) rates need to be kept at high levels for a certain period of time
2) it's premature to talk about the Fed starting to cut rates in March.
3) more time and data are needed to see if inflation has moved to a sustainable decline
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U.S. could see a new wave of rising inflation - like the 1970s - JPMorgan
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💡 Ideas For BTCUSD 🪙
📈 BTCUSD → A "sell the news" scenario? What happened?
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At the moment the price is testing the nearest strong support 41639 and forms the third retest (false breakdown) of the support. In the TA format, the price can form a rebound, which we see. At the moment we should pay attention to the level of 42850 from which growth or a small rebound may follow and then fall to 40659 - this is a strong level, which is a risk zone and liquidity pool. A false breakdown may be formed before further growth.
Support levels: 42850, 41639, 40659
Resistance levels: 44490, 45500, 47280, 48250
Regarding technical nuances (resistance, false breakout) a correction is forming. The price may test one of the mentioned support and liquidity zones to free the market from unwanted participants. Fundamentally, BTC is strong enough to continue its growth both in the medium and long term.
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#BTCUSD 🪙
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → It's a stalemate. The market can grow
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GOLD reaches our target, but after a false breakdown of support 2016, the market quickly buys back all the fall. Now the price is heading towards a strong resistance
At the moment the price of gold is heading to the resistance of the ascending channel, from here two scenarios can develop:
1) False breakout may lead to a pullback, within which the price may break through 2031.8. Consolidation below this level will continue the correction phase and within the descending channel the price may head towards 2016
2) False breakout will form a small correction to 2030-2031. But, the fundamental background will play its role and the price will start forging resistance retests for a breakout. Breakout of downside resistance and 2038.9 level is a signal and price consolidation above these areas will be confirmation
Support levels: 2031.8, 2025
Resistance levels: MA-200, 2038.9
I think that the chance is higher towards the resistance breakout than towards further decline. We follow the price reaction beyond the mentioned zone and wait for confirmation of one or another scenario to open trades
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#XAUUSD 👑
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🔶 CRYPTO VIP CHANNEL
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📶The result of the CRYPTO VIP CHANNEL
🎖Jun19-Jun25 +1550%🟢
🎖Jun26-Jul02 +1280%🟢
🎖Jul03-Jul09 +870%🟢
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🎖Jul17-Jul23 +1670%🟢
🎖Jul24-Aug13 +750%🟢
🎖Sep04-Sep09 +470%🟢
🎖Sep11-Oct01 +1320%🟢
🎖Oct02-Oct08 +1010%🟢
🎖Oct09-Oct22 +1280%🟢
🎖Oct23-Oct29 +3440%🟢
🎖Oct30-Nov05 +2780%🟢
🎖Oct30-Nov05 +2780%🟢
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🇺🇸 News ahead! 15:30 GMT
- CPI (YoY) Expected 3.2% instead of 3.1%
- CPI (MoM) Expected 0.2% instead of 0.1%.
- Initial Jobless Claims Expected 210K Instead of 202K
PS:
CPI higher than expected is bullish news for the dollar
IJC Below 210K - bullish news for the dollar
This is just to mention that yesterday the SEC approved all applications for the spot BTC-ETF
The market is already preparing for trading
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → How might today's news affect gold?
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GOLD is trading in a range, as evidenced not only by trading between levels, but also between moving averages. The reason for this is the controversial fundamental environment
The market is reacting weakly to bullish news for the dollar because fundamentally it is already overheated. Speculators react very strongly to negative news than positive news and in the current environment this is worth considering.
Important news is being published today. In general, analysts are expecting bullish CPI data and bearish Initial Jobless Claims data. Bad data for the $ will push gold up, to the point where the price could change its local trend. But good news for the $ may continue to form an actual range for gold 2015 - 2050.
It is worth paying attention to the strong resistance on the dollar 102.6, technically, the index is ready to go down and very strongly (This should have a positive impact on the price of gold), but I wonder what will show today the funamental market.
Support levels: 2030, 2020, 2015
Resistance levels: 2039, 2049
On the news, the price may test strong zones. At the moment, there is no clear understanding of the strength of the news we will receive, but according to a number of assumptions we have a chance to strengthen the price of gold
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Price wars rage between asset managers just one day before the deadline for the SEC’s decision over the first spot Bitcoin ETF
• Bitcoin prices gained around 9% to start the week, crossing the $47,000 threshold for the first time since March 2022. Elevated bidding swept the crypto market thanks to excitement over the first spot Bitcoin exchange traded fund in the US. With just a day left before the approval window runs out, a fee war has taken place
• BlackRock, Grayscale, and ARK, the top three asset managers with pending Bitcoin ETF applications, unveiled their pricing structure. The ETF issuers are fighting for potential inflows even as the SEC has remained tight-lipped over the first-in-line ETF application, the one filed by ARK, with deadline looming Wednesday
• BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said in a filing it will charge clients 0.2% of the net asset value of the ETF for the first year or until reaching $5 billion. ARK Invest proposed to waive fees for the first six months or until it gets to $1 billion. And Grayscale said it will be asking for a 1.5% fee
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Bounce to 2050, or consolidation 2030-2040
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GOLD is trading within a descending channel, from support the price is heading towards resistance, while the dollar continues to consolidate in anticipation of tomorrow's news
Gold price after another false breakdown of support and retest of the liquidity zone forimizes the rally and tests 2040. Most likely the target for the market is embedded higher, around 2048-2050
Pay attention to the dollar. The price is in consolidation for 6 days near the level of 102.6. Important news is published tomorrow, the market is probably waiting for bad news for the dollar, as the bears are forming a strong resistance zone.
Gold may enter the risk zone (resistance area) before the news, but if the price does not pass the 2040 area, the price will form a consolidation until tomorrow waiting for the fundamentals.
Support levels: 2030, 2023
Resistance levels: 2039, 2049
The price is strengthening towards the resistance, the target for the market is the area of 2050. (rlinda. com) But if the price does not pass through 2040, the market will start to form consolidation 2040-2030
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