Nonfarm payrolls for December are expected to land at a soft 170,000 new hires. Any major deviation could rattle the Federal Reserve’s rates projection
• The EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸 pair slipped modestly to the downside early Friday as forex speculators rotated into the US dollar ahead of today’s key data. It’s Jobs Day again and, as usual, markets are anticipating another promising number from the US economy
• This time, analysts have pinned 170,000 as the expected pace of hiring for December. A number too high above that will indicate that the American labor force is not cooling as intended. What’s more, it could sway the Federal Reserve into reconsidering its stance on the upcoming interest rate cuts this year
• In that light, the EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸 was trading near the $1.09 to $1.0920 neighborhood. The US dollar has started the year on an upbeat note denting the euro’s valuation by about 120 pips. Over the past year, the euro was able to chip away at the dollar’s value by about 3% after lots of strenuous effort.
In general, these are all important news, but the most influential on the price is NonFarm Payrolls. rlinda. com Analysts generally consider this index to form their medium-term trading strategy.
But, if the NFP index remains at the same level or around the expected data, it is worth evaluating other news.
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Surprisingly, analysts expect bad NFP data, but based on ADP Nonfarm and Initial Jobless Claims, rlinda . com the data could be bullish.
A higher than expected NFP will strengthen the dollar.
- Unemployment rate is expected without much change, but lower than expected data will strengthen the USD
- ISM PMI is also expected without much change, but higher than expected data will strengthen the USD
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Interestingly enough, with fundamental analysis comes the realization that non-important or interim news is more of a consolidation moment, such as yesterday.
Based on yesterday's data, gold and the forex market could have fallen more than 70-100 pips (we made money on it by the way), rlind. com but after that the price returned to the consolidation phase.
This means that the market continues to gather potential, but within the framework of technical analysis, it does it in a bearish plane.
Yesterday we got all the news bullish for the dollar, the dollar is rlind. com strengthening and is ready to do it further as the target for the index is higher.
This, technically, could have a negative impact on the forex and gold market.
💡Ideas For USDCAD 🇺🇸🇨🇦
📈 USDCAD → NFP may strengthen the currency pair
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#USDCAD is forming a local resistance level at 1.3364 and pre-breakdown consolidation before the news. There is a chance that price could consolidate
On D1 we see the formation of a global sideways range. Hence, (rlinda. com) we are using a range trading strategy in the global perspective. A false break of support forms a signal that price is now heading upwards.
Yesterday, the DXY received fundamentally positive data that could strengthen the price, and also this data (Initial Jobless Claims, ADP NonFarm EC) is a prerequisite that today's Nonfarm Payrolls will also be bullish for the dollar.
In this case, the currency pair may break the nearest resistance at 1.3364 and continue its growth.
Support levels: 1.3315
Resistance levels: 1.3364, 1.3487
There is an empty space up to the target, therefore, (rlinda. com) if the nearest resistance is broken, the price will easily and quickly reach 1.3487
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Yesterday's spill in BTC led to panic selling. Trading volume rose to the highest since March 2022. Funding rates for longs came sharply back to normal (were at a record), reflecting "fear" in the market - Santiment
You know what's interesting?) I've told you this very often by the way.
The market will never let everyone make money. Even against the backdrop of a strong bullish trend, strong fundamentals (BTC-ETF applications may be approved until the 10th), the market maker continues to maintain formally adequate liquidity.
Many traps are forming in the market while the price is in consolidation (several weeks). Even yesterday's short-squeeze confirmed this once again. The market is trying to get rid of unnecessary passengers before further growth
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💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 GBPUSD → News ahead. The pound could fall, but...
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The pound sterling (GBPUSD) declines in the first half to 1.2615, and on Wednesday the currency pair strengthens in anticipation of news in the US market. What should we prepare for?
Today we are in anticipation of strong news: (rlinda. com) ADP NonFarm EC, Initial Jobless Claims, SP PMI. Fundamentally, analysts expect the DXY to strengthen based on the expected data. This will have a corresponding effect on the forex market. The actual data can either meet or break these expectations. But, the Fed has recently said that they are fully prepared to raise interest rates, trying to keep the market in a tight grip. Technically, the GBPUSD may head towards the support of the upside range of 1.2550 - 1.2506. A correction phase is forming after a false breakdown of the resistance. The area of interest is below 1.2615.
Until the news publication, until 13:15 - 14:45 the market may be in a neutral state.
Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2784
Support levels: 1.2615, 1.2506
Technically, the currency pair may fall after the price fixation below 1.2715. (rlinda. com) But, if the news comes out worse than expected, it may strengthen the pair and the currency pair may start to grow from this level.
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It has always been difficult to trade at the end of a calendar year and the beginning of the next calendar year.
The main reason is low volumes and low liquidity.
The market is manipulated by (rlinda. com) holders of relatively low deposits (compared to the market maker)
Thus we see a technically incomprehensible rise in the dollar and a decline in gold.
At the end of last year we had bad news for the dollar, but the price rose on the back of it. Pure market manipulation.
Hence. At the moment (until the end of the week) I recommend to pay attention (rlinda. com) to the local trend, volumes and crowd mood. And also, if you trade Forex or futures, pay attention to the dollar.
💡 Ideas For KAVAUSDT 💰
📈 KAVAUSDT → A break of resistance will give a 60% increase
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KAVA is overcoming trend resistance, which could give a potential rise of several tens of percent in the mid-term
Against the backdrop of rising BTCUSD, which is overcoming the key 4-week resistance KAVA and the altcoin market shows good potential.
The only nuance is that KAVA is lagging the market and continues to consolidate. (rlinda. com) An important nuance that will stimulate strong growth is a break of 1.140 resistance.
This level is the upper boundary of the 12-measures consolidation. After breaking this resistance, the market will have a potential target of 1.550 and 1.800. But before that we have another resistance - the upper boundary of the wedge. Consolidation of the price above 0.950 will form the potential to buy and hold the trade up to 1.140.
Support levels: 0.950, 0.870, 0.770
Resistance levels: 1.025, 1.140
I expect consolidation of the price above 0.954 and growth to 1.140. (rlinda. com) Further I will wait for the breakthrough of 1.140 and growth to the specified targets.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈GOLD → The bullish potential is back. December trap
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GOLD is starting to catch up with the bullish potential, which was forged at the end of 2023, when we received negative news for $
On D1 we see gold rising on the back of a weakening DXY. The price breaks through the important and historical resistance 2069 - 2070. A retest and consolidation of price above the level is forming. (rlinda. com) A price consolidation this week above this level will confirm the intention of the bull market. In this case, we may see a potential target in the form of: 2085, 2100 and even 2150.
On H1, the price is updating the local support (false breakout) on the background of bullish news for gold. And this is a logical scenario before further growth. I warned you that before the growth, even on good news, the price can go down.
Now it is important for us to see the price consolidation above the mentioned liquidity area.
Support levels: 2075, 2070, 2069
Resistance levels: 2079, 2082, 2088, 2100
I expect growth after the price fixation above (rlinda. com) the mentioned support area.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Well, friends...
Welcome everyone to the new year of 2024 😊
I hope this year brings you many positive, important, money, experiences, enlightening, warm, sunny, love.
Happiness and good luck to everyone in this new year of the dragon! 😊
And we will slowly start to explore new perspectives in this market and share our ideas and experience with you 🥂
#GOLD UPD:
Strange development of the situation after the publication of negative news for the dollar
the market reacts opposite to the logical outcome.
Most likely, the market maker is trying to test the liquidity area, (rlinda. com) located at the bottom, before further growth of the price
Two scenarios are possible.
If the market maker has collected the position he needs, he will try to bring the price to the buying zone, which can be formed above 2069-2075. If the price fixes above this area, the growth phase will begin
BUT! False breakdown of 2069-2075 is possible, (rlinda. com) if the price fixes below this area, the fall will continue to the key area of liquidity 2047 before further growth to 2100.
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#BTCUSD UPD:
Over the past few days, the market has been receiving interesting news about the imminent approval of the first applications for spot BTC-ETFs
This is very cool news, as we have been waiting for this for a long time.
But, the market is waiting for the applications to be approved in early January.
This could create a huge capital inflow.
But on the background of this news we see the price decrease. Apparently, someone decides to buy BTC at more favorable prices before the jump up.
I am waiting for a test of the mentioned support.
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#GBPUSD UPD:
Strange behavior of the forex market on yesterday's news. Instead of the expected growth we see a fall.
That's okay.
Apparently, the market lacks the necessary liquidity and the market is trying to collect it by all available means.
The correction may end at the nearest support area before further growth. The trend is still bullish
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → How will the news affect the price?
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Technically, we have a bullish trend, with strong support and liquidity area forming in the 2075 - 2069 area
• On positive news for XAU the price may test this area and after a false breakdown head upwards.
• But negative news for XAU will break this area and could send the gold price to 2050 - 2047
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Expected 170K vs. the previous 199K
If the data is above 170K, it could strengthen the dollar and weaken forex and gold
If the data is below 170K, it could weaken the dollar and strengthen forex and gold
But, as we noted earlier, news is potentially unpredictable.
If the data comes out better than expected it will prompt some action, rlind. com and if the data comes out worse than expected it will shake the market to huge liquidity and volumes
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Will NFP weaken gold? What should we expect?
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GOLD is consolidating under a strong resistance level. Yesterday the gold market received negative fundamental data, in all likelihood, which will also affect NFP
On the high timeframe we see the formation of a resistance zone formed by several highs and levels. At the moment the focus is on the 2050 level. After a false breakdown and on the news on Thursday, a bearish consolidation is forming under the level to continue the decline. Based on the previous data, we have a high chance of seeing a negative NFP for gold. In that case, the price may head downwards. But, the problem with news is that it is unpredictable, rlinda. com The opposite of the expected NFP can strengthen the gold. Wait for the actual data.
On H1, there is a possible resistance retest before further decline. Moving averages previously formed a trend change signal and now indicate a downtrend.
Support levels: 2038.9, 2031, 2015
Resistance levels: 2049.3, 2058.3
Technically and fundamentally, the price is expected to decline towards the mentioned targets. rlinda. com But if the actual news data will be opposite to the expected ones, the market may behave unpredictably.
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A cluster of inflation data released this week showed the British economy is pulling away from price pressures
• The #GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸pair moved higher for a second consecutive day on Thursday. The exchange rate briefly crossed $1.27 but proceeded to fall back slightly under the threshold. (rlinda. com) Positive economic data from the UK has traders optimistic about the prospects for the local currency
• Grocery price inflation, released Wednesday, eased from 9.1% in November to 6.7% in December. It is the fastest monthly drop since record-keeping began in 2008. A day earlier, food prices came down to the same clip while shop-price inflation was flat in December at 4.3%
• In that context, the Bank of England’s anticipated move to lower interest rates may be further strengthened. It is the consumer-price index report that should matter the most. Slated for release on January 17, the print is expected to show that headline inflation continues to cool, sliding under November’s 3.9% growth.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Correction phase, expect a fall, but news...
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GOLD is declining by 1.3% on Wednesday, the reason may be the fundamental nuances of the Fed, which is still trying to keep the market under control, (rlinda. com) hinting at both lowering the interest rates and raising them, to which the market reacts by strengthening the dollar
Today at 13:15 - 14:45 important news is published, which reflects both the situation with inflation and the position of the FED and FOMC. Fundamentally, analysts expect bullish data, which could technically strengthen the DXY, which in turn will weaken gold. Still, it is worth waiting for actual data that can provide insight into the medium-term outlook.
On the chart we see the formation of a technical correction on the background of a bullish trend. (rlinda. com) The price is testing the resistance of 2050, it is possible that before the news the price may go higher and test 2058, 2065 before falling further. But, if the actual fundamental data is worse than expected, it could strengthen gold towards the current channel resistance.
Support levels: 2042, 2037, 2033, 2030
Resistance levels: 2049.3, 2050, 2058, 2065
The news will give us insight into the medium-term outlook. (@ RLindaTrade) Bullish news for the dollar will weaken gold and the price will continue the local downtrend. Bearish news for the dollar will strengthen gold and may reestablish the bullish trend
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈GOLD → Correction Phase. How long will it last?
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GOLD is weakening on the background of growing DXY. At the moment, fundamental and technical indicators are diverging and the market is trying (rlinda. com) to collect maximum liquidity before further growth
On D1 we see the formation of a false breakdown of resistance 2075. The market is in global consolidation, but locally we have a downtrend forming.
Technically, the price may test the local trend support, while the dollar seeks to test the resistance.
Within the downtrend range, (rlinda. com) gold may bounce from support to resistance. This range formation is likely to continue until the end of the week.
Support levels: 2048, 2030, 2010
Resistance levels: 2058, 2069, 2075
Fundamentally, the dollar has a weak support and should fall. But on the background of low market volumes, the market maker is collecting liquidity. It is likely that the gold may test the far support levels before rising further. Hence, the local bearish correction formation may continue until 2009 in the medium term.
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The Securities and Exchange Commission may notify spot Bitcoin ETF applicants of its decision to approve or reject their filings as soon as today
• The price of Bitcoin 💰surged to a 21-month high, ringing in 2024 on a highly upbeat note. The orange coin jumped 7% on Tuesday to eclipse $45,000, peaking at a daily high of $45,500. A key week is unfolding, and investors are optimistic about what’s coming
• The Securities and Exchange Commission is slated to reveal who will get the greenlight over the first US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. More precisely, the first ETF to hold actual Bitcoin, not futures contracts, may arrive this week if the US regulator grants the go ahead
• Starting today, through January 10, the Bitcoin ETF approval window is pushing demand for crypto assets across the board. Besides Bitcoin, Ethereum 🔹 powered higher by 4% and Solana 🪙 rocketed 13% to $115, riding its recent monster ruj. Broadly, the crypto market is zeroing in on a $1.8 trillion valuation for the first time since early 2022.
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💡Ideas For EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸
📈 EURUSD → Bulls can show good growth
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#EURUSD is testing support in the upside plane. The support at 1.1017 plays a key role
On D1 we see the formation of a retest of 1.1000 level after its break. (rlinda. com)The market may test this area not only by touching it, but also by false breakout before further growth.
The DXY is likely to continue its weakening on the back of weak fundamental background, which will affect the forex market accordingly.
On H4 and H1 it is worth paying attention to the support area: 1.100 level and upward support in order to make further decisions.
Resistance levels: 1.108, 1.1142
Support levels: 1.107, 1.100, 1.0930
The price may test not only the nearest support, (rlinda . com) but also the one below. Everything depends on the price reaction to the mentioned levels. But at the moment we expect growth from 1.1017.
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Happy upcoming holidays to everyone and Happy New Year 2024! 😉
The year 2023 was multifaceted for everyone: instructive, difficult, interesting, and many more characteristic facts.
For some people this year turned their lives upside down, some people got a new chance, some people just started to develop, and some people just lived it as an ordinary year of 365 days. But it is a whole year. For a whole year you have become more experienced and wiser, and this is irreplaceable experience.
If you have lost the festive mood due to various reasons, it is only a reason not to feel it 😏 Sometimes you need to become a child inside and rejoice in small things and look for warm feelings in everything. The most important thing is the inner feeling. Become a child for a few days, feel how you will renew your inner world before a new leap of several hundred days 🤩
In 2024, I wish you to follow your path, which your heart tells you. Do what you like, do what you like, do not stop there, study, learn new things, travel, meet new people, be kinder, love, interact 🫶
Eastern astrology associates the future year 2024 with such a challenging animal as the Dragon 🐲 If you believe Chinese astrologers, in addition to power and strength, this mysterious creature is characterized by emotionality, charisma, the desire to always be in the center of attention and shine.
It turns out that 2024 is our year. Be dragons 😊 in 2024!
#ETHUSD UPD:
There is an interesting development in ethereum.
The market is in the phase of pattern realization (symmetrical triangle).
The price updates the maximum and forms a correction to retest the support.
If the price consolidates above 2300 (which is a strong level and plays a very important role in the future), we will have to watch further growth.
Additional scenario: the price may go lower, for example to 2200, or to 2100 before a further upward spike.
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#EURUSD UPD:
It's the same situation with the Eurodollar.
But the situation here is more interesting. Earlier the price reached the target at 1.1142. A correction is forming
On the background of a strong bull market, the price may form a false breakdown of support before further growth.
Unless, of course, the U.S. market is going to start actively strengthening the dollar. In this case the correction of the pair may be delayed until the decline to lower levels
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#EURUSD 🇪🇺/🇺🇸
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US - Initial Jobless Claims = 218k (expected 210k / earlier 205k)
US - Trade Balance (Nov-prev) = -$90.27 bln (expected -$88.4 / earlier -$89.56 bln)
I'm posting the idea a little later than you'd like.
There was no point in publishing it earlier, as the market is going into a waiting phase before the news, and liquidity is low and most of the market is already resting, as it is a holiday period.