R. Linda Trading

15 декабря 2023 12:32

A solid 0.75% chunk is likely to get trimmed off the current 5.25% to 5.50% Fed benchmark interest rate next year. Euro topped $1.09

• The #EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸 pair leaped higher on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting with a bang. Fed boss Jerome Powell said the central bank will not be hiking its benchmark rate. And more than that, Fed officials are planning a solid 0.75% cut to borrowing costs in 2024

• With that in mind, the European Central Bank decides its rate stance today. So does the Bank of England. Both are set to leave rates unchanged. But what officials say could have a big impact on FX markets. Brace for shifting volatility today as the week of central-bank decisions moves in full swing
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R. Linda Trading

15 декабря 2023 10:15

💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 GBPUSD → The start of a rally? A retest of support
➖ ➖ ➖ ➖ ➖
#GBPUSD on the back of Powell's loyal speech regarding further rate cuts, but which he has now left unchanged, and also on the back of inflation, which is falling much slower than he would like, is strengthening and updating the high to 1.279

On D1 we see how the price reacted to the news that came out on Wednesday. Price tests the MA-200 on Tuesday and Powell accelerates the rally on Wednesday. Pretty aggressive market reaction to virtually unchanged data. (rlinda . com) Oh well. At this point, the price broke the downward resistance, which puts the market in a bullish phase. After consolidation we see the transition to the distribution mode, which may continue after the local retest of the support areas indicated on the chart. Strong bulls have come to the market again, which take advantage of the weakening DXY

The key support area is 1.2715 - 1.2650. A retest of the support may form a false breakdown, and the subsequent consolidation above the level will form a bullish potential. Medium-term targets for further growth are resistance at 1.2784, 1.2888

Support levels: 1.2715, 1.265, 1.2615
Resistance levels: 1.2784, 1.2888

Within the framework of the emerging correction, the price may test the support before further growth. Today there is no strong news that can affect the market, in all likelihood, the bullish influence on the pair will continue.
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#GBPUSD 🇬🇧/🇺🇸
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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 15:03

Bulls are pricing in stubborn inflation numbers while bears are factoring in three or more interest rate cuts for the Bank of England.

The GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸 pair is caught between a rock and a hard place. In the green corner is the bulls’ camp with long bets on the sterling, fueled by speculation that UK inflation will stay elevated in 2024. In the red corner are the bears who think that’s not exactly true. In fact, they foresee three to four interest rate cuts for the Bank of England next year

Inflation in the UK has been slowing to a 4.2% annual rate for October, down from 6.7% in September. Fresh data released today showed that the UK economy contracted in October. Gross domestic product fell 0.3% for September through October, missing the consensus view for a flat rate of growth.
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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 14:03

News coming soon!

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

Previous: 0.1
Expected: -0.1
If the actual data is higher than expected, it is bullish for the USD. And vice versa. Weaker than expected data will weaken the dollar.

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Previous: 220K
Expected 222K
If the actual data is higher than expected - bearish for the USD. And vice versa. Lower than expected data may strengthen the USD.
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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 12:03

Market participants endured the worst single-day performance in nine months, but Bitcoin is still up 150% on the year

• Bitcoin prices #BTCUSD 💰
consolidated near the $41,000 threshold on Wednesday after a cold plunge of 8% took traders by surprise on Monday. The top crypto asset suffered its worst day in nine months after profit taking clipped some of Bitcoin’s recent gains on the back of the highly-coveted spot Bitcoin ETF

• Undeterred prospects for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF continue to steer the token’s price trajectory. Active talks between the US financial watchdog, the SEC, and BlackRock, the asset manager who awaits a decision on its BTC ETF application, are improving the crypto investment climate on Wall Street.
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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 11:14

👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → The market's violent reaction. What to expect next...
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#XAUUSD is once again meeting strong bulls. Powell's speech influenced the price growth and a 2.8% momentum is forming. Let's see what happened and what to expect:

Most important: The rate remained unchanged. Inflation eased 0.1% to 3.1%. In fact, there was no change. Speculators liked Powell's more positive tone, which caused them to react with a rather aggressive infusion of capital into the market. But again, everyone, as well as the Federal Reserve and analysts expect the rate reduction not earlier than March 2024. (rlinda . com) Apparently, there was an internal psychological hunger on the background of long waiting for any hints or actions and as a result, we see the weakening of the DXY and the growth of gold.

Today we expect important news at 13:30 GMT. Analysts expect the data to remain unchanged.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#XAUUSD 👑
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R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 22:16

I'll tell you what. I feel like speculators are mentally insane. 😱

There's news from FED & FOMC. The basic gist:
The Fed left the rate unchanged at 5.5%
Powell gave a strong signal that the Fed has likely already ended the rate hike cycle stating that he believes it is unlikely that the Fed will continue to raise rates and that the start of a rate cut is now on the table.
Powell left the option of further rate hikes if the U.S. economy grows above trend.

So here goes. In fact, the market has been left with the same data. The rate is 5.50%, inflation is in the neighborhood of 3.1%. NOTHING HAS CHANGED 😥

Even in such moments, when everything is clear, you begin to realize that nothing is clear and you feel like a fool. People on empty words and rumors, when before the actual changes in key data is still a few months and everyone understands about it, reacts as abnormal. Apparently there was an internal psychological hunger on the background of long waiting for any hints or actions.

But I have already said many times - this is news. And that is the problem with this nuance as a trading instrument. You do not know beforehand how the market will behave even on predictable things.

-- --
UPD: I'm being written to and told I'm disappointed in this. Thank you for your excitement. No, I am sharing my opinion as we are all interested and many would like to know what happened in the market.

R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 16:34

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R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 12:32

The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.5% at its meeting today. Further Fed signals expected on policy pivot from aggressive rate hikes to plans for what happens next - experts - CNBC
-- -- --
Fed to start cutting rates in June 2024 - experts - CNBC poll
-- -- --
Rising real rates could influence Fed rate decisions - Yellen
-- -- --
Fedwatch: markets are pricing in the first rate cut in May 2024
-- -- --
Goldman now expects the Fed to start cutting rates in 3Q 2024 (vs. 4Q 2024 previously)

PS: even rumors like this suggest that the Fed won't be cutting rates just yet. Inflation is falling, but the general fundamental background is still protecting and supporting the dollar.
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R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 10:57

👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Pending FOMC & FED. Price may fall even lower
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#XAUUSD is in consolidation phase and it is likely to last until 19:00 GMT. The market is waiting for news and no strong movements in one or the other direction should be expected before the time.

The premise is that the dollar will strengthen:
• Friday's NFP continues to be bullish for the DXY
(pattern to break resistance is forming)
• PPI is expected to be bullish
• Overall the data over the past few days will not allow Powell to cut the rate.
• Inflation is still strong to change policy.
Against this backdrop, gold may test one of the local highs: 1990, 1996, 2000 before falling further
Overall, (rlinda . com) from a technical point of view, there is still a huge buying imbalance in the gold market, the market maker can take the price much lower to balance the situation and at the moment the negative fundamental background is contributing to this.

Support levels: 1976,2
Resistance levels: 1984.3, 1990, 1996

The price continues to update the lows and this indicates the mood of the market. The fundamental background for gold is unfavorable and the decline may continue. The situation may change if today's news and its actual data are not extremely opposite to expectations
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#XAUUSD 👑
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R. Linda Trading

12 декабря 2023 17:10

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R. Linda Trading

12 декабря 2023 12:03

Michael Milken, a prominent investor, believes that the Fed will continue to be more hawkish (than markets expect) on monetary policy in order to avoid the mistakes of the 1970s, when the Cenro Bank cut rates too early and inflation got out of control again.
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R. Linda Trading

12 декабря 2023 08:51

💡 Ideas For BNBUSDT 🔸
📈 BNB → Price is showing an interesting bullish outlook
➖ ➖ ➖ ➖ ➖
#BNBUSDT breaks the resistance of bearish trend on the background of improving fundamental situation. For the activation of the bullish phase of the market, a few more conditions must be met.

We can see that TOTAL capitalization, following the BTCUSD growth, is also moving into a bullish trend format. BNB is falling away due to regulatory and governance issues. At the moment, the fundamental environment is improving and the price is starting to show interesting prospects.
The break of the descending wedge resistance is a strong enough signal, the price is testing the MA-50 support and the bulls are confidently consolidating their positions above the moving average. At the moment, the resistance of the current consolidation - 257.8 - is holding back the market from going bullish.
A break of this resistance will be accompanied by a surge in volumes, volatility and the formation of a bullish impulse.

Support levels: 226, MA50, 203.4
Resistance levels: 257.8

I expect a breakout of the mentioned resistance after the next retest. On the background of favorable conditions it may happen rather quickly. Targets are 336.8, 439.0.
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#BNBUSDT 🔸
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R. Linda Trading

11 декабря 2023 16:35

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11 декабря 2023 14:04

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R. Linda Trading

15 декабря 2023 11:27

👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → The market is warming and bullish potential is forming
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#XAUUSD strengthens and tests the local high but fails to reach the key resistance at 2050. A strong consolidation above the 2030 level and subsequent momentum is forming.

For us at the moment the area of 2034 and 0.382 fibo plays an important role. As the pre-breakout consolidation is formed in relation to the resistance, and after the false breakout of 2040 the price does not fall, but breaks the resistance, it seems that with a positive fundamental background the market may continue its growth.

But before the growth the price may finally test the support. (rlinda . com) As part of the realization, the price may reach the area of 2050 or even 2060. Closing of today's daily session will determine for us the medium-term potential for the next week.

Resistance levels: 2047.5, 2050. 2062
Support levels: 2038, 2030, 2025

It seems that the market is getting ready to test the resistance. A pullback within the range may follow. Price return to resistance will prepare the market for further growth.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#XAUUSD 👑
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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 16:33

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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 14:31

US - Initial Jobless Claims = 202K (expecting 222k / previously 220k)

US - Retail Sales (Nov) = +0.3% mom (expected -0.1% / earlier -0.2%)

R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 13:04

Total inflows into #ETH 🔹 and #BTC 💰 are now accelerating at the same pace as before the rally in 2020 and 2021 - Glassnode data
-- -- --

The next bull cycle for the cryptocurrency market will come from a completely unexpected direction. Spot BTC-ETFs and halving are only small localized events compared to the emergence of really big players in the digital asset market
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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 11:27

👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → The market's violent reaction. What to expect next...
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
In terms of technical analysis, Gold is testing the resistance of the previously created range of 2038. A false breakout is formed, which may lead to a small correction before further growth amid positive fundamental background. (rlinda . com) The price may test 2030, 2025, 2020. But a retest of 2038 and consolidation above the level will contribute to the strengthening of gold.

Support levels: 2030, 2025, 2020
Resistance levels: 2038, 2049

I think that before the news there will be a sideways range and consolidation, (rlinda . com) after the news the price may form a correction before further growth. But everything depends on the news.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#XAUUSD 👑
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R. Linda Trading

14 декабря 2023 10:22

💡 Ideas For ICPUSDT 🪙
📈 ICPUSDT → The development of bullish potential could yield 75%
➖ ➖ ➖ ➖ ➖
#ICPUSDT has finally overcome the resistance of the bearish trend. The coin has a potential for growth. The target could be a 75% rise

On w1 we can see that the coin is still weaker than the cryptocurrency market and is currently showing the prerequisites in which the price can start a rally to catch up with the missed potential. A breakdown of MA-50 W1 and consolidation above forms a bullish leverage that allows for a successful upper channel boundary.
On the daily timeframe, price breaks the 6.00 level. In the future, I will wait for price consolidation above this level to open positions with the aim of further price growth and achieving the targets indicated on the chart.

Support levels: 6.050, 4.988
Resistance levels: 6.788, 7.100, 7.809

I expect the ICPUSDT coin to continue growing after the price fixes above the previously broken level.
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
#ICPUSDT 🪙
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R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 19:20

As for interest rates.
The situation is still tense. We should not expect rates to fall this year.
Powell will still hint that he may raise rates if the situation becomes more difficult.
They are trying to hold on to the controls, which are kind of starting to show the green light.

Ahead:
FOMC Economic Projections
FOMC Statement
Fed Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Press Conference
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R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 14:05

Up ahead is the Producer Price Index (PPI). Just be careful during trading. There could be a spike in volatility. This news will not affect much as they carry more mediocre news for today. The important news will be at 19:00 GMT

But the general picture and the situation is clear, I have described all my thoughts in the idea on EURUSD and XAUUSD
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R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 12:04

Historically, the Fed has taken a pause at the peak of the rate before beginning a down cycle. The timing of the pause has varied. Perhaps the markets are too optimistic about a rate cut starting soon - RTRS

Fed enters the latest phase of the fight against inflation and with little "pain" so far - BBG
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R. Linda Trading

13 декабря 2023 09:45

💡Ideas For EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸
📈 EURUSD → FED & FOMC Expectations. Will the situation change?
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#EURUSD is forming consolidation in the phase of waiting for news related to inflation and US monetary policy. Based on the expected news and past data, there are a few nuances

The DXY is leading an interesting life on 4H tf. The index is gaining a bullish stance, we can tell by the long shadows and the price pushing towards a strong resistance area that may be broken. PPI is ahead (analysts expect positive data for $), Friday's NFP is also positive (this leverage is still in place) for DXY. And also ahead of Fed IRD - it's too early to talk about a rate cut, inflation is falling, but there is not enough potential to change Powell's views yet.
Technically, on the background of the news, I expect a retest of the mentioned resistance area of EURUSD (1.083 - 1.081) with a subsequent fall, as the dollar is supported by strong fundamentals and expectations, (rlinda . com) in which case the forex will continue its downward correction

Support levels: 1.0756
Resistance levels: 1.083-1.081, 1.0800

The SMAs are showing the beginning of a change in sentiment as the fundamental backdrop is weakening for the euro. Based on the expected news, the dollar could rise, which would weaken the currency pair. But again, the main nuance of news is its unpredictability!
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#EURUSD 🇪🇺/🇺🇸
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R. Linda Trading

12 декабря 2023 14:04

🗣Big news coming soon. What to watch out for:

The core consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the prices of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price changes from the consumer's perspective. It is the primary way to measure changes in consumer buying trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be a positive for the dollar.
While a lower than expected reading should be a negative for the dollar.

Analysts expect bullish data, namely 0.3%, relative to 0.2% last period.
But regarding the expected data: if the actual data is higher, bullish volatility will increase - the dollar will start to rise.
Accordingly, if the actual data is weak, the reaction will be the opposite.
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R. Linda Trading

12 декабря 2023 10:09

👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Waiting for the CPI. Will the situation change much?
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#XAUUSD continues to fall despite the expectations of many. The price is testing the 1984 area and updated the low to 1975.89. What can happen today?

The DXY is in a local trend phase, but at the same time it is consolidating in anticipation of today's CPI and further news this week. The main gaze is directed towards FED interest rate decision, FOMC statement, Initial jobless claims.
Against the backdrop of Friday's NFP we can say that things are still not very stable and the representatives of the US economic system may still consider a tougher outlook. In this case the dollar index will continue its growth and gold will go down.
Technically, the metal is in the red zone, updating lows and testing resistances from below. The chances that the market will change the trend are not so great. Analysts expect bullish CPI, which will strengthen the dollar. Gold may fall further after a shakeout, within which it may test nearby resistances.

Support levels: 1980, 1975, 1965
Resistance levels: 1984, 1890, 1994

I expect a shakeout on the background of the news, after which the decline may continue with a high probability. ( rlinda . com ) The potential is on the side of the bears, their strength prevails at the moment.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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11 декабря 2023 18:36

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11 декабря 2023 15:09

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R. Linda Trading

11 декабря 2023 12:44

The trajectory of US hiring ticked up in November, slightly breaking away from expectations and possibly complicating the priced-in rate cuts next year

• The EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸 pair slipped under the $1.08 handle on Friday and remains under pressure on Monday. The exchange rate got knocked by dollar strength after the latest jobs data indicated a modestly disobeying labor market, putting the anticipated interest rate cuts for next year at risk of getting derailed

• America’s employers tapped 199,000 new hires to join the workers’ ranks in November. The figure was about 10% higher than the 180,000 expected by Wall Street. Still, there wasn’t much of a reaction in the dollar, other than a lightweight leg up across the board

• The EURUSD hit a one-month low of $1.0735, diving under the key long-term trend gauge, the 200-day moving average. The pair is now at the crosshairs again, sitting at the 100-day moving average. The dollar index DXY
turned up, topping the 104.00 watermark, and closing a week of gains following a three-week losing streak.
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