What could happen to gold after Powell's speech?
Against the backdrop of improving inflation, as evidenced by the news this week, I still expect Powell to hint at a change from a tight policy to a more accommodative one.
The main question is when will they still announce a rate cut?
The bullish news is not important for the dollar right now, but rather for Powell. Once he decides that the news is strong enough to support lower inflation, then he will start cutting rates, thus the dollar index will start its decline further.
What will happen to gold?
On the back of the initial news wave, gold may test a new high, but a pullback may follow in the long run, as a safer global environment will again cause capital to move out of gold and into other markets: forex, stocks, futures, cryptocurrencies, commodities and so on.
Also: signaling a possible medium-term pullback could be the distribution after the outbreak of war in the middle east.
Top cryptocurrency is buoyed higher by growing enthusiasm over the first US spot Bitcoin ETF. Other tokens are getting a lift too.
#BTCUSD 💰 emerged above the $38,000 price level to start December’s dealmaking. The OG digital currency is riding a 6.5% November gain, preceded by a solid 27% pump in October, aka Uptober. Earlier today, Bitcoin floated at a daily high of $38,211, up for a second straight session.
The price of the token has been reaching higher highs over the past two months, buoyed by excitement over the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund awaiting the US regulators’ greenlight.
In other corners of cryptoland, #ETHUSD 🔹 is on the cusp of breaking through a 19-month high with prices hovering just under the $3,000 watermark. Overall, total worth of the entire digital-asset market is gravitating toward the $1.5tn handle, up nearly double on the year.
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Bloomberg analyst James Seyffarth:
- The next real window for spot BTC-ETF approval is expected to be Jan. 5-10, 2024
- Coinbase CEO: very optimistic about approval of spot BTC-ETFs in 2024
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Consolidation before the news. What could happen?
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#XAUUSD continues to consolidate in the 2050 - 2035 range. Powell speaks again today, earlier the US market got a higher GDP and good Initial Jobless Claims data, how will this affect his speech and how might gold react?
The DXY is testing local levels, ahead of ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices and also at 16:00 and 19:00 GMT Powell will speak. US inflation is declining and there are indicators for that, but the dollar is strengthening, which provokes gold to form a consolidation.
We are now confused by the death cross on D1, but again, since the gold is in a global sideways range, maybe we should not pay so much attention to this signal.
At the moment gold is testing the level of 2048.77 with a false breakdown.
On H1 we see strong consolidation, range boundary tests and false breakdowns. The market will wait for the news and most likely there will be no strong movements before that. The price is gaining liquidity before Powell's speech.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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The dollar index is strengthening. Most likely, on the background of positive GDP and in anticipation of today's news, the price may reach the area of 103.5.
This correction is logical after a strong fall and a new low. The market should gather liquidity before the fall.
As the market is waiting more and more for the Fed policy easing, I expect that from the nearest resistance or after the news the dollar will start to decline again. Watching the areas: 103.5, 103.88.
If the DXY is going to fall, then:
X/USD pairs will rise
USD/X pairs will fall.
👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Price in range, correction may go lower
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#XAUUSD is forming another range of 2050 - 2038. Retest of resistance failed to renew the maximum, thus the market may begin to form a correction to support.
The #DXY has been strengthening since yesterday on the back of positive US GDP data. The expectation was 4.9, the actual data: 5.2, which is positive for the dollar.
But the controversial situation here is that a more positive GDP has a greater impact not on the pricing of the dollar, but on the Fed's stance. Hence, with bullish data, Powell is getting closer to initiating policy easing and rate cuts.
Since gold is in a range and already testing the support at 2038, it seems that the correction phase can be stopped either at this level or test areas lower, for example: 0.382 fibo, 2035, 0.5 fibo or global trend support.
A strong rally ends with a correction and it is hard to say where this correction will stop.
Support levels: 2037.7, 2035, 2030, 2022
Resistance levels: 2050, 2052, 2059
There are important news today, it is worth paying attention to the Initial Jobless Claims, even relatively good news for the dollar (related to inflation) can weaken its price, as the market is waiting for news related to monetary policy.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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A bit about the latest speeches from Fed speakers:
*Speaker #1: the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle
*Speaker #2: current Fed policy is already adequate enough to bring inflation down to the 2% target rate
*Speaker #3: there is no longer a need for a Fed rate hike
*Speaker #4: it is not a fact that the Fed is done raising rates
*Speaker #5: the Fed will raise the rate if needed
*Speaker #1,2,3,4, etc...: we need to keep the Fed Funds rate high for a while. A rate cut is off the table.
---------
❗️ a new tone today: waller said that if inflation comes down consistently, there is no reason to insist that rates stay high
PS: nothing new so far. Waiting to see what GDP shows today.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Correction after a false breakdown. US GDP ahead
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#XAUUSD reaches the previously mentioned 2050 area a bit faster than we expected. The rally is followed by a logical correction. But how long will the correction last?
On D1 we see a counter-trend correction in #DXY. The correction may last until the publication of GDP related news, which is published today at 15:30 GMT. Analysts are expecting the same level of gdp that was released in November.
GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and a key indicator of the health of the economy
Resistance levels: 2038, 2042
Support levels: 2037, 2035, 0.382 fibo, 2033, 0.5 fibo
Expecting a correction. The price may head towards any of the mentioned zones before further growth. It is impossible to determine in advance where the price will stop, it will show only the reaction of the price to one of the levels.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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Brief overview:
Gold is standing still for the most part today.
We are watching a few areas and waiting for quality setups. around the 2010 retracement.
Important levels 2008 and 2007. It is likely that price may test this area. It is important for the market to raise liquidity, because after the bullish impulse in the morning, an imbalance is forming in the market.
The British pound #GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸 consolidated its gains above the $1.26 mark, reaching its highest level since late August as investors digested hawkish statements from Bank of England policymakers.
On Tuesday, Bank of England's Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stated that Britain's monetary policy is likely to require a "restrictive" approach for an extended period to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.
Meanwhile, Chief Economist Huw Pill emphasized last week the necessity for the central bank to remain steadfast in its battle against inflation, asserting that it cannot afford to loosen its tight monetary policy.
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🗣Ahead, at 16:00 GMT is Powell's first speech for today.
Expect. Control your trading before the news, reduce risks
The shifting narrative is now phasing the dollar out of investor sight as markets are eager to get first signs of rate cuts.
The dollar index #DXY 🇺🇸 slipped under 102.50 this week, poised to wrap up its third consecutive week of declines. Shifting interest-rate prospects have turned investors against the buck as markets look elsewhere for bargains. The dollar index has erased roughly 3.5% of its peak 2023 valuation of 107.36 to trade near 103.30 today
But the Federal Reserve has given no indications of a potential rate cut any time soon. With that said, the US central bank is expected to hold the benchmark rate at 5.25% to 5.50% at its Dec. 12 – Dec. 13 meeting. Only then will investors get more insight into the projected rate-movement timeline.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Consolidation before the news. What could happen?
➖ ➖ ➖ ➖ ➖
An actual rate cut is out of the question now, we will only need to hear positive sentiment or hints. If Powell hints more strongly about an imminent change of monetary policy to a more loyal one, the dollar index will resume its bearish trend and gold will head towards the upper global boundary of 2059 - 2067
But, as a force majeure, negative news for gold, the realization of a false breakout and death cross, the price could quite possibly test both trend support, 2022, and the far liquidity zone 2010 - 2020, but it will not change the medium-term and long-term outlook for now. The market could test the global high by the end of the year (perhaps even soon)
Support levels: 2038, 2035, 2022
Resistance levels: 2049, 2059
I am waiting for the publication of news, which will determine the short and medium term scenario for gold. The probability that the price will update the high increases as the Fed's sentiment improves
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#XAUUSD 👑
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💡Ideas For GBPJPY 🇬🇧🇯🇵
📈 GBPJPY → The bullish trend will continue, but...
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#GBPJPY is forming a set-up within the ascending channel, which predicts the continuation of the trend, but for this the price needs to overcome the resistance at 188.28
On D1 we can see that fundamentally and technically the national currency of Great Britain looks much stronger than the Japanese currency, although Tokyo has been trying hard to strengthen the currency lately, which technically works, but only against the background of the weakening of the dollar index.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the price is pushing away from the support of the ascending channel and continues to forge the ascending triangle, a false breakdown of the resistance was formed earlier, but there is no fall, which could change the trend. The price is returning to the resistance, which only confirms the target level: 188.28. A break of this resistance will continue to form an impulse, which will only continue the trend. The moving averages are supporting the trend.
Support levels: 186.8, 0.236 fibo, 0.382 fibo
Resistance levels: 187.13, 187.55 188.28
The market outlook is bullish, at least for the moment. There are no prerequisites for a possible breakout of support, so we stick to the realization of the bullish scenario.
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#GBPJPY 🇬🇧/🇯🇵
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The British pound bounced off the inflection point at $1.2730, forming a double top with a previous peak. PCE data ahead
• The #GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸 pair advanced for a fifth straight day on Wednesday, hitting a three-month high at the $1.27 handle. What’s more, the pair ricocheted off the inflection point at $1.2730, forming what’s called a double top – a pattern in technical analysis which posits a trend reversal may be coming
• So far, the double top spell is holding up as the British pound reversed course and traded at $1.2680 early on Thursday. The UK currency has made solid progress this November, flaunting gains of more than 4.5% for the month. Looking ahead, bulls may want to challenge the imminent resistance at $1.27
• It’s inflation data day in the US with markets anticipating the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. The personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE, is slated for release later today. The print is expected to solidify investors’ conviction that price pressures have eased closer to the US central bank’s 2% target rate
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Today at 13:30 GMT news. It is worth paying attention to the following:
⏺ The Core PCE Index - Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. (A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD)
⏺ Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. (A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD)
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💡 Ideas For TONUSDT 💎
📈 TON → Strong fundamentals open up bullish potential
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#TONUSDT has been demonstrating excellent fundamental data lately. The market is forming accumulation of bullish potential, which may soon move to the realization phase.
The price is trading under the global descending resistance line. The market continues to form an ascending price channel. It is worth paying attention to the ascending triangle and false resistance breakout. The market does not allow a fall after the false breakout. What is not natural for the standard situation is that after the false breakout, the price forms a small pullback and returns to the 2.520 resistance for a retest.
Clearly, Toncoin is now under the watch of a major buyer. The consolidation may soon move into a distribution phase, provided that the resistance is broken and the price consolidates above the red downtrend line. Moving averages are supporting the market.
Resistance levels: 2.500, 2.600
Support levels: 2.329, 2.228
Bulls can keep the price below the support levels. A retest to resistance will increase the chances of its breakout, which is what I am waiting for. A break of 2.500-2.600 will form a bullish impulse.
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#TONUSDT 💎
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Lowering inflation is fueling bets that the Federal Reserve will bring interest rates down from their 22-year peak. Dollar fell.
Gold prices #XAUUSD 👑 pushed higher to start the week, climbing to a six-month high at $2,018 per ounce. Driving the fresh leg up were elevated expectations that the Federal Reserve has wrapped up its aggressive rate hike action as inflation keeps cooling. Adding to the momentum was a languishing US dollar.
On a deeper level, market participants are pricing in a potential reversal of the Fed’s campaign that lifted interest rates to a 22-year high of 5.25% - 5.50%. In that context, the forward-looking valuation of the dollar took a hit with the dollar index #DXY 🇺🇸 floating near a two-week low around 103.30.
Gold, on the other hand, has gained just under 12% since the Israel – Hamas war broke out in early October. Even as the conflict has now reached a simmering point and hostages are being released, the precious metal is witnessing increased demand from institutions, central banks, and retail traders.
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The euro has been making inroads while shifting market sentiment has turned the dollar less appealing to FX traders
• The #EURUSD 🇪🇺/🇺🇸
pair peaked at a four-month high of $1.1017 in early dealmaking on Wednesday. Currency traders are on pace to uphold the exchange rate in the green for a fifth straight session as shifting prospects for the US dollar have phased it out of sight
• More precisely, the dollar is losing momentum over an expected reversal of the sweeping interest-rate campaign by the Federal Reserve. While the narrative a few months ago was “rates should keep rising to stamp out inflation,” the US central bank is now reconsidering its actions
• Investors believe no more rate hikes will be needed as inflation has come down substantially. Will a 3.2% October inflation clip and a tightening labor market be enough to convince Fed officials it’s time to move away from leaning against the economy? Euro bulls seem to believe so.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Correction after a false breakdown. US GDP ahead
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#XAUUSD Gold may test one of these liquidity areas before rising further. The potential and increased interest will continue to forimize the bullish trend, but the price cannot go up all the time.
It is worth paying attention to the liquidity areas: 2037, 2035, 2033, 2029, as well as 0.382 fibo, 0.5 fibo. False breakdown of one of these areas and subsequent price consolidation above the level may end the correction.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 GBPUSD → False breakdown leads to correction before retest
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#GBPUSD reaches the previously mentioned target of 1.2726, a false breakdown of the liquidity area is formed and apparently a correction will be formed before the retest
The #DXY opens with a small counter-trend correction from the opening, which has a corresponding effect on the Forex market. In all probability, the index will test the previously broken resistance: 102.77, 103.06. The outlook is bearish. The pound sterlnigov will form a small correction after a false breakdown of resistance. The nearest support that can be tested before is in the area of 1.2640 - 1.2620
Today the market expects the publication of the US GDP, in November the index rose to 4.9% against 2.1 in the previous period. Analysts expect that the index may remain unchanged at 4.9. This is the broadest indicator of economic activity and the main indicator of the state of the economy, so this fundamental factor will have a medium and long-term impact on the market
Support levels: 1.2640, 1.2620, 1.2560
Resistance levels: 1.2726
I expect correction after a false breakdown. Retest of the support may form another bullish potential before further growth
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#GBPUSD 🇬🇧/🇺🇸
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The post above is my comment yesterday on gold (The comment was in the individual channel)
The market stood still and made a lot of people nervous. But the false breakout put everything in its place :)
And the attached photo is today's result:
The price movement is strictly according to the scenario :)
Things could go from bad to worse for the U.S. dollar if the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates by 175 basis points or more in 2024, with scope for USD/JPY to drop to 130 if it does.
Deutsche Bank economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 bps in June 2024, followed by 125 bps of additional cuts to 3.50-3.75% over the second half of next year, according to a report released on Monday.
The USD index fell to a three-month low of 103.07 on Tuesday, with the dollar on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. USD/JPY was last at 130 in March.
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Exactly 11 years ago, the first halving took place in the #BTC 🪙 network, after which a strong growth occurred
With each halving, such movements become less and less explosive as BTC matures as an asset, experts say.
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