👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → An attempt to break H4-D1 support. Fear?
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GOLD is updating the low. The breakdown of the structure confirms the dominant bearish potential. But, the price is moving reluctantly in anticipation of the news. There could be a retest of resistance (trap) before falling
The dollar is strongly bullish. The US market situation is difficult and regulators have hinted more often about rate hike, inflation is uncontrollably rising and this is a negative scenario for the markets.
The situation in the Middle East is heating up: the Israeli army continues to pull heavy military equipment to the borders of Lebanon. The intensification of the conflict will increase the interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
At the moment, technically, gold is in a selling zone, as the price is breaking the strong support area H4-D1. A retest is possible before the subsequent fall (if the overall fundamental environment does not change dramatically).
Resistance levels: 2326, 2332, 2341
Support levels: 2315, 2306, 2297
Traders are waiting for the US GDP, which will be released tomorrow. Traders expect the DXY to continue its northward course, accordingly, the expensive dollar on gold may have a negative impact...
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#XAUUSD 👑
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#ETH #Ethereum
The Ethereum Foundation has been selling significant amounts of ETH at the peak during every bull market.
In the current cycle, we haven't seen significant ETH sales by the foundation yet - either the price peak is still ahead or they've changed strategy
VanEck has filed an 8-A with the SEC for a spot ETH ETF. The last time they filed such an application was a week before the launch of spot BTC-ETF trading. We should probably expect the launch of spot ETH-ETF trading on July 2
Gary Gensler (SEC):
The approval process for spot Ethereum ETF applications is going smoothly
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#DXY #Dollar
Bond markets are now mortgaging that the Fed Funds rate will stay high for longer than the Fed itself is currently forecasting - BBG
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#USDJPY
Managers' and hedge funds' shorts in the Japanese yen rose to an all-time record. Markets expect further weakening of the yen against the dollar
Japan's central bank again warns of readiness to act in case of strong exchange rate fluctuations
Japan spent a record $62.2 billion on currency interventions to support the yen over the month - BBG
PS: I think that against the backdrop of a strong dollar, the Japanese Central Bank needs to take action much stronger than before, as their current policy format towards the local currency is not bringing any medium to long term positive effects
💡 Ideas For PEPEUSDT 🐸
📈 PEPE → The end of the correction may take us back to an uptrend
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PEPE - the meme coin is showing signs of a possible end to the correction and a return of price to the bullish trend continuation phase
On the local timeframe, the price forms an exit beyond the resistance of the descending channel, characteristic of the correction against the background of the bullish trend. Against the background of bitcoin capitulation and the general mass of altcoins, the meme coin PEPE looks quite cheerful. The price can move into the phase of the 5th wave realization if the bulls can keep the defense above 0.0000114. The next boundary is the range resistance. The breakout of this area will be a green traffic light signal for the buyers, the potential of which could strengthen the price towards ATH
Resistance levels: 0.0000125
Support levels: 0.0000114, 0.00001084
I expect that the bulls will do their job and will soon be able to bring the price to the nearest resistance, where a fierce struggle for further space between buyers and sellers may take place.
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#Ethereum #ETHUSD
ETH-ETF (eight in total) are expected to be launched on July 2. The new investment instruments will complement the already registered bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have been in such high demand that the price of the token reached a record high of more than $73K. Will we see a similar movement in the price of Ethereum?
Ethereum, the second largest coin, is looking to hit Wall Street, which will lower the entry barrier for crypto investing. Despite rising nearly 50% year-over-year, the token is still far from its November 2021 record. Some analysts are excited that the launch of ETFs could fuel a rally in the price of Ether.
Ether ETFs will hold genuine Ethereum and allow ordinary people and professional managers to invest in the coin, increasing its market value in the process. Speculation aside, one thing is for sure - the upcoming ETH ETFs will lower the barrier to entry into the market, potentially expanding the presence of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. as more people take heed of the digital asset class
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Correction after the rally. Bears still dominate
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GOLD has been strengthening since the opening of the session, buyers are trying to hold the defense above 2325 and redeem part of Friday's fall. Fundamental background remains negative
The price consolidation above the strong support at 2326 opens the range for maneuvering and may allow traders to strengthen to 2341 (2354) - the area of interest, the target of such maneuvering may be the liquidity inside the range, formed within Friday's rally by those who tried to catch the departing train. If 2341 will be confirmed and the bears will not let the price go beyond its limits, the market may go into the sell-off phase again.
Investors this week are interested in GDP and PCE, which are released in the second half of the week, the first half of the trading week may be relatively quiet.
Resistance levels: 2341, 2354
Support levels: 2325, 2315, channel support
I expect the correction to continue to the area of liquidity and interest. A major player may gather the rest of the potential before further movement in one direction or the other. Watch the price reaction to the level of 2341, which may determine either a fall or further growth to 2354.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Bears are engulfing the market. What's next?
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Part #2
Geopolitical tensions are still at a high level, the reason for this: rumors that the Israeli army approved an offensive against Lebanon.
Toward the end of last week, the dollar both looked and continues to look quite strong, on the back of upbeat S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data. The index rose to 51.7 in the June estimate from 51.3 in May, while the services PMI rose to 55.1 from 54.8, showing continued expansion of private sector business activity at a rapid pace.
Traders are awaiting U.S. GDP to be released on Thursday and on Friday the BEA will release PCE price index data for May, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
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💡 Ideas For TONUSDT ✅
📈 TON → Is the coin still bullish? When is $10.00?
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TON still continues to accumulate potential with the purpose of breaking through resistance 7.671 and continuing growth. Bulls are actively defending the zones of interest and continue to hold the positive market structure.
Earlier, on the background of the general market correction the price formed a false breakout, which did not lead to a break of the bullish structure or to a strong fall. From the area of interest (without capturing liquidity) buyers are actively buying the asset and again trying to return to the resistance retest, which will only increase the chance of a breakout. Fundamentally and technically, TON looks very positive at the moment. But this does not mean that sellers are unable to change the nature of the price movement.
Resistance levels: 7.671, 8.288
Support levels: 6.727, 6.202
Technically, there is a high probability of a continuation of the upward trend, but there is also a probability of a support break, which will break the uptrend and change the market imbalance. At this point, while the price is consolidating and continues to shrink to resistance, we should consider a bullish set-up.
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#BTCUSD in the range (boundaries are marked)
As long as the price is inside the range, there is no sense to panic, as the market has been standing in one place since March (energy is accumulated for movement in one direction or another).
A downward movement is forming locally.
It is worth paying attention to the descending resistance and the level of 64895 (65K). A breakdown and consolidation above this area may allow the market to strengthen
But, consolidation below 64K may provoke further decline to the area of interest 60-56K.
Globally, the overall situation can be interpreted as follows: after a strong rally, the market has moved to the consolidation stage with the aim of continuing growth. The accumulation may continue for quite a long time, until some strong signs, which may allow the price to continue growing or start falling to deeper liquidity areas
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#GOLD / #XAUUSD
Interesting situation.)
Unfortunately here is the mistake I fell for.
The liquidation, which I mentioned earlier, is being formed.
But, not from the area of 2340-2350, which I was talking about, but higher - the market-maker was interested in the area of 2365 (liquidity block from the previous consolidation).
Strong growth up to 2365 and stopping. Formation of consolidation and confirmation of limit boundary (resistance is not broken). Next, a major player lets the market go and the price falls, eliminating all buyers.
In this case, the decline may extend to the lower boundary of the consolidation range
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💡Ideas For NZDUSD 🇦🇺🇺🇸
📈 NZDUSD → Traders prepare for bearish rally to 0.60
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NZDUSD is consolidating after breaking the uptrend support. There are no signs on the chart for possible growth, only if the fundamental environment does not change drastically...
Technically, a bearish situation is forming on the senior timeframe within the 0.6219 - 0.6084 range. Traders do not believe that the dollar will start to fall and are forming sell-offs of the New Zealand dollar. A break of 0.6083 could lead to a strong sell-off that could spill the market to 0.60 - 0.587. But as the US GDP will be released tomorrow, the market may continue to move flat until some important measures are taken by the major traders.
Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6215
Support levels: 0.6083, 0.600
I expect a retest of the support against which a small rebound may follow. But, if the situation both technically and fundamentally will not change in the near future, we should expect the formation of a bearish trend.
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#AUDUSD 🇦🇺🇺🇸
Interesting situation on AUDUSD
The currency pair has been in consolidation for a long time. The Aussie is holding inside the channel for quite a long time and confidently, while the dollar is gradually updating local highs.
If this continues, this accumulation in the currency pair may move into the phase of strong distribution.
If the fundamental background is still on the side of the dollar, the currency pair may break the support and fly down.
Technically, the price continues neutral movement within the flat and it is difficult to trade inside this range. I would consider a strategy of breaking through the boundaries. But as long as the market is neutral and there is no interest, consolidation will continue. We are waiting for Thursday...
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Trading inside the range. 2340 zone of interest
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GOLD is not preparing to leave the local ascending channel (the nature of the channel is corrective-consolidation), as traders do not seek premature action before the news
The U.S. market is facing another problem: slowing economic growth and rising inflation is leading to recession, no matter how much the authorities deny it. Accordingly, the phase of active currency support may continue and this may have a negative impact on the metal price. Today CB Consumer Confidence - the indicator can give some idea about the mood on the market, but in general traders are waiting for the US GDP, which will be published on Thursday. Neutral data is expected, but there is a high probability that the actual data will be different from the expected...
Resistance levels: 2341, 2354
Support levels: 2326, 2315, 2305
The general mood is neutral, the big players are not in a hurry to act and are consolidating. Technically, gold may strengthen to 2340 (area of interest and liquidity) within the range. The bulls may stop the micro rally and turn the price to the support, if the market maker is not enough, the price may strengthen to 2354 before coming back down
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#DXY #DOLLAR
US Dollar Index. High volatility is expected during the week, which is likely to provide trading opportunities for forex speculators
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or PCE, will be released on Friday. This index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge because it does not include more volatile items such as food and energy. That said, the May PCE index will show whether price pressures have eased from April's 2.8% reading. If so, it will increase the likelihood of lower interest rates this year.
In this context, the US dollar is in an uptrend this year, despite rate cut forecasts circulating since the last quarter of 2023
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💡Ideas For GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸
📈 GBPUSD → The rallies in GBP continue. Falling to 1.26?
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
GBPUSD on Friday updates the local low and confirms the bearish nature of the market. Since the opening session traders have been trying to buy back some of the decline and are heading towards the liquidity zone, from which bears may intensify selling
Traders increased selling in GBP to a 16-month high amid expectations that the Central Bank of England will start cutting interest rates sooner than the US Fed. Investors are expecting the GDP of both countries (UK and US) on Wednesday and Thursday. This will help to form a medium-term strategy.
Technically, price is heading towards the 1.270 zone of interest (psychological area), which previously played the underlying consolidation support. A retest and capture of the liquids could change the imbalance in the market, which could lead to an intensified sell-off from the said area
Resistance levels: 1.27, 1.275
Support levels: 1.26, 1.257
The dollar index looks stronger than the pound sterling, which continues to weaken due to fundamental reasons. The Feds are not yet ready to take premature action, which generally determines a negative fundamental background for the currency pair.
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#GBPUSD 🇬🇧/🇺🇸
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Bears are engulfing the market. What's next?
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Part #1
GOLD is hit by a strong wave of selling on optimistic fundamental data in the US market. A takeover is forming on the chart, which clearly makes traders panic.
Technically, buyers who showed interest in the metal, which started the strengthening phase from the middle of the month got under liquidation. The sellers are not ready to let the price go beyond 2350-2360 and staged a bearish rally, energized by the fundamental background, which sharply strengthened towards the already bullish dollar
Resistance levels: 2325, 2332, 2340, 2355
Support levels: 2315, 2305, 2290
Overall, traders may try to buy back some of Friday's decline from local bullish channel support and test the resistance and liquidity area of 2332-2340. But a number of technical and fundamental patterns point to a negative backdrop, and this could generally signal a continuation of the decline after a small correction. Active selling may intensify with a downward breakout of 2316-2320 level
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#ETHUSD is also still in consolidation (a pattern is forming, within which the market is gathering potential)
ETH has quite a high potential, traders and investors are waiting for the SEC to allow issuers to trade. Companies have now finished filing updated S-1 filings for admission to trading. Consequently, traders are in no hurry to take premature action in the waiting phase. The market is saving up.
I think that the positive outcome of this event can form a positive influence on the price of the asset. But, if we remember, bitcoin went down in this case and formed a shake-down before further growth.... This scenario may happen again with ETH.
PS: SEC is considering the situation that ETH-ETF will be available for trading this summer...
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#USDJPY rose for a sixth straight session on Thursday after renewed dollar strength pushed the exchange rate to levels near ¥159.00. In April, Japanese officials couldn't hold back any longer and decided to step in, allocating up to $60 billion in an attempt to protect the yen from dollar dominance.
The same scenario could play out now. The Japanese currency is collapsing again, and its supporters are not too sure that now is the right time to intervene. The longer we wait, the more complicated the situation could become. If an intervention does happen, it probably won't be announced in advance. And if it does happen, but it is not aggressive enough to fend off dollar bulls, the situation could get even worse.
Last week, the Bank of Japan had a chance to boost the value of the yen if it decided to raise interest rates, but it didn't. The central bank kept rates at 0-0.1% and remained silent on whether it was going to raise borrowing costs anytime soon. The lack of information on this front hurt the outlook for a stronger yen as investors had nothing to grab onto
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