Consumer prices increased less than expected in the past month, giving traders and the Bank of England a reprieve
The #GBPUSD 🇬🇧🇺🇸 pair shifted gears to lower levels on Wednesday after the UK economy flickered signs of cooling. British inflation slowed sharply in November, sliding to 3.9%, down from 4.6% in October and below analysts’ estimates for a 4.4% annual increase
November’s uplifting inflation data intensifies expectations that the (rlinda . com)gbp Bank of England may look to start cutting rates in 2024. Previously, the UK’s central bankers sought to deviate from that path, already adopted by their US counterparts, on the notion that inflation is still a pain to the economy
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Amid BlackRock's frequent year-end meetings with the SEC, the market is once again seeing an increase in optimism about crypto in general. In previous times, the growth of optimism about spot BTC-ETFs led to the growth of the BTC rate - Santiment
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The problem with the situation is that several important reasons have created a generally incomprehensible environment. But for what?
And so: Gold is ready to rise, but there are no fundamental reasons for it now, there are technical ones, which say that the market targets are below 2000. (rlinda . com) The dollar is also weakening for reasons I don't understand.
The second half of December before the holidays drives everyone crazy - ahah. Apparently at the end of the year they decided to get on everyone's nerves. But come on, we know how to behave in such a situation.
1) The Fed last week acted like clowns (sorry, but I can't call them anything else). An executive says good news, other spokesmen refute him. Clowning around but it is pure market manipulation.
Maybe they want to weaken the dollar before the last appreciation, before a further decline in 2024?
2) The market does not react to actual fundamental data, it reacts to rumors.
3) Amidst this morass, the market has gone into consolidation (gold and the dollar stands still)
4) Tomorrow the news is published, but I can't say anything in advance as the environment is inadequate.
PS: Haters, I love watching your reactions 😄
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💡Ideas For EURCAD 🇪🇺🇨🇦
📈 EURCAD → A set of bearish patterns foreshadowing the decline
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#EURCAD is forming a standard bearish setup on the background of the forming downtrend, as the Canadian is getting stronger than the Euro and thus changing the market direction
On D1 we can see that in general the currency pair is in a global range and it is impossible to identify any key trend, so it is acceptable to trade both buying and selling within the range. (rlinda . com) But since we have a set of sell signals forming, we should expect further price decline.
The level of 1.46400 (D1) plays an important role. Consolidation is formed, then the level is broken, after which a pin-bar is formed on the background of the retest, which confirms the interests of the market.
On H1, the price breaks the consolidation support, makes a false break of 1.464 as part of the correction and even on H1 a bearish candlestick pattern is formed with subsequent consolidation of the price below the level, which is an additional confirmation.
Support levels: 1.458, 1.456, 1.4478, 1.4350
Resistance levels: 1.464, 1.4747
I expect a continuation of the decline, a retest of 1.464 is possible, but in general the setup hints at the continuation of the downtrend.
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#EURCAD 🇪🇺🇨🇦
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#ICPUSDT 🪙 Upd:
Classy realization :)
The coin looked quite strong in advance against bitcoin, which was declining in the correction phase.
As a result: +80% 🤩
You can always find the coin that will fly away in a worthwhile market :)
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Is the dollar’s dominance over? Recent trend suggests that bears are now in control after multiple buck-battering reports
• The US dollar index DXY
is struggling to find its feet early Monday after taking a beating last week. Amid the market euphoria that swept Wall Street, the currency king was abandoned with traders hurtling for risk assets. Forsaking the stalwart of FX dealmaking came with a cost
• Investors have little incentive to hold the greenback now. Inflation is falling and interest rates are moving either flat or down, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest comments. The old adage ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ might as well be playing out in the markets at the moment
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💡 Ideas For ETHUSD 🔷
📈 ETH → Conglomerate of bullish patterns. Waiting for growth ↑
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Support levels: 2190, 2131, 1980
Resistance levels: ascending resistance line and 2030
On the background of the retest, a false support breakdown is formed and the market forms a pin-bar candlestick - a strong signal for further growth. In addition, the conglomerate of bullish patterns "ascending triangle" and "flag" also forms the expected bullish potential. In the near future we expect the realization of one of the above scenarios with further growth.
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#ETHUSD 🔷
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Nearby resistance could influence further declines
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#XAUUSD on Friday, after the words of Williams (Fed) falls under the sell-off and tests the low of 2015.6. At the moment, the market is calm and forming a correction after a false breakdown of support
For the DXY, a relatively bullish fundamental backdrop was restored on Friday. In all likelihood, the correction may be followed by a recovery phase, which could affect gold in terms of further declines. Let me remind you that at the moment the price is in the range of 0.382 fibo - 0.236 fibo.
On the H1 chart, (rlinda . com) the price is forming a false break of the support of the 2020 range and is heading towards resistance to retest this area.
The market still wants to take the price lower as there is an area of imbalance and interest for the market below the 2000 - 1975 area, but amid strong market manipulation by the Fed, the asset is trading slightly higher than it should be.
Support levels: 2020, 2015
Resistance levels: 2030. 2038. 2050
Still, we expect a decline after the resistance retest. The market is recovering fundamental background, within which gold may test lower support levels.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Bears are around. The fall may continue, but....
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#XAUUSD is under selling pressure amid the global bull market. Earlier, the price updated the high to 2150, after which it formed a rather strong conglomerate of bearish patterns.
Based on the fundamental data from last week, there are strong indications that we should expect the #DXY to strengthen from the market opening and in the medium term. Consequently, after a small correction, gold may continue its decline towards the imbalance zones, which are obviously still of interest to the market maker.
The medium-term target may be the support area below 1975. (rlinda . com) The market may test the support of the global price channel before further growth. At the moment, the priority of forces is for the bulls, as there are a number of nuances and patterns that point to this.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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💡 Upd: #BTCUSD 💰
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Bitcoin updates the high to 44600 and forms a correction after a local false break of resistance 44490.
But at the same time, this correction forms a key support area near 40500 and begins to consolidate within a symmetrical channel. This setup, amid a strong bullish trend and positive fundamentals may play a key role in the continuation of growth towards the global target of 49K.
The following two tandems are most important at the moment:
1) 42К level and triangle support. Consolidation of the price below 42000 with the subsequent break of the triangle will form a decline to 40500-40000. But relative to this area may be followed by a false breakdown with subsequent growth
2) 42К level and triangle resistance. At the moment consolidation is forming above 42000. So it is important for us to wait for a retest of the pattern resistance followed by a breakout, which could give a strong bullish impulse
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#BTCUSD 💰
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💡 Ideas For LPTUSDT 🪙
📈 LPTUSDT → Breakout of multi-month trend resistance
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#LPTUSDT is moving into the phase of realizing the accumulated potential. Against the background of stalled BTC, LPT / TetherUS looks confident enough to continue its growth after breaking through resistance
The cryptocurrency market is quite active lately. Overall capitalization, flagship, altcoins are warming up after a prolonged winter. Prices are updating multi-month highs and that is encouraging.
LTP is still under bear market pressure and only today the pair is starting to show prerequisites for a possible trend change and realization at 12.00.
The price is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation against the trend resistance. After retest and false breakdown the price does not fall, a strong support area is formed and on the background of another retest the resistance is broken. (rlinda . com) The tandem set-up plays the role of a reversal set-up and clearly indicates the formation of bullish potential. Moving averages are starting to show a possible market reversal.
Support levels: 6.9, 5.96, 5.35
Resistance levels: 7,56, 9.31, 12.00
Market consolidation above the previously broken trend resistance and the 7.0 area will form a bullish potential that may activate a market rally towards these targets
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Have you seen forex and gold?) Do you know what happened?)
UPD: even crypto, oil and more are falling :)
Japanese yen has added a solid 7% to its valuation against the weakening greenback over the past month
• The #USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 pair fell more than 1% on Thursday to break into a five-month bottom just under ¥141.00. The dollar tumbled for a third day in a row but was salvaged by the 200-day moving average, currently sitting at ¥142.49. A slingshot-like move whipped the dollar back above ¥142.00 early on Friday
• Adding to the technical aspect of the short trade, double-bottom support is lurking from the ¥141.51 mark. The recent selloff in the dollar could be attributed to FX markets pricing in a hefty 75bps rate cut planned for 2024, as per the latest Federal Reserve announcement
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The massive cryptocurrency flexed over the investment bank’s gloomy prediction and crossed 150% year-to-date gains.
Bitcoin prices #BTCUSD🪙 moved higher early on Tuesday, recouping some of the previous days’ losses. The biggest crypto asset jumped above $43,000, gaining a little over 1% in the early deals today as investors renewed optimism over the outlook for 2024. (rlinda . com) Bitcoin us up more than 150% on the year
JPMorgan, however, is not getting on board. The investment bank issued a fairly dim outlook for the token’s performance next year. “We continue to see a high chance of buy-the-rumor/sell-the-fact effect once the SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETFs early next year,”
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The #USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 has climbed roughly 4% against the greenback this month, fueled by bets on shifting monetary policy by Japan's central bank.
So far in December, the Japanese currency is up roughly 4%. The yen’s gains, however, were quickly threatened this morning after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda took the stage. (rlinda . com) In a press conference, the central banker said there is little chance that officials will “change policy next month.”
The speculation around policy tightening was what steered the yen’s stellar performance. Governor Ueda continued to commend the local economy and vowed to take “additional easing measures if necessary.” The currency pair might go through another bout of volatility later this week when the US reports its GDP data.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Consolidation against an unstable background
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#XAUUSD continues to consolidate. The market is forming a range after the shakeout, manipulation by the frs, unstable fundamental environment. Let's get to the bottom of what's going on
The price is testing strong resistance on D1, but on the local timeframe both gold and DXY are in consolidation. (rlinda . com) Technically, the dollar is showing hints of possible growth, but the important news will be only tomorrow (December 21) and they are expected to be quite unstable. It is difficult to determine the outcome in advance, we will wait for the actual data.
Gold is testing the resistance 2048 - 2050, the third retest on D1, but the price does not reach a few tens of points to the maximum. There can be many reasons for this, and one of the serious ones is building a limit barrier due to strong sellers. But again, the price has not yet tested 2050 (no touch). It may happen before a possible rebound. Now there is also a possibility that the market may try to break 2050 and enter the range of 2050 - 2075. We continue to watch this area.
Resistance levels: 2048 - 2050
Support levels: 2038, 2030, 2020
From the point of view of range trading strategy, we should expect a fall after retesting the range resistance, as there is no actual trend and on the background of neutrality we can both buy and sell, but inside the range.
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#GBPCAD 🇬🇧🇨🇦 Update:
As we can see, a standard strategy within the price channel is forming.
Crosspairs are more calm, as there is no strong influence during fundamental surges as with pairs where dollar is involved.
The price reacts to the channel support and as I expected - strengthens. we are waiting for the resistance retest and further decline.
Analyzing is easy, the main thing is to have your own system, and not to try to guess the future direction of the price from the unknown.
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Consolidation on weak fundamental background
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#XAUUSD remains within consolidation for several days. The market stands still due to the uncertain fundamental environment
The DXY stands in a narrow consolidation, but at the same time forms an ascending triangle, which can be interpreted as bullish consolidation, pushing the price to resistance with the aim of breaking the limit resistance level. (rlinda . com) If the dollar starts to strengthen, which is expected on the background of the pattern, gold will then start to realize the scenario we expect.
Fundamentally, on Friday and Monday, Fed officials made it clear to the market that Powell said nonsense about the rate easing discussion and started to put things in order: a rate cut is possible in March, but it is too early to discuss it now, as inflation is still high and a rate hike is possible.
Hence, this is a negative fundamental backdrop for gold. Gold is now in consolidation and heading towards resistance for a retest before a possible fall.
Support levels: 2023, 2020, 2010
Resistance levels: 2030, 2033.6
There is a high chance that after the resistance is retested, gold will start a downward phase, (rlinda . com) as below the above mentioned zones and below the lows there is an area of interest to the market maker - areas of imbalance formed on the background of the strongest rally a few weeks ago.
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#XAUUSD 👑
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💡 Ideas For ETHUSD 🔷
📈 ETH → Conglomerate of bullish patterns. Waiting for growth ↑
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#ETH is forming a conglomeration of bullish patterns amid a strong uptrend that continues to show chic preconditions for further growth
On W1, the price forms a retest of the resistance of the uptrend range. The price successfully fixes above the strongest support zone 2041 and in fact the bulls define for themselves the lower boundary of the range, beyond which they have no right to let the price go.
The area of 2300 is important for us in the medium term. This level shields us from a new range with the width of 55% of the price movement.
I've seen two scenarios on the 4H timeframe. (rlinda . com) But first we should pay attention to such nuances as: bullish trend (strong), ascending triangle, the breakout of which continues to influence the price formation, as well as the bullish pattern "flag", which can be interpreted as: correction on the bullish trend before the continuation of growth
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#ETHUSD 🔷
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The Fed is causing the market to become irrationally optimistic about a possible rate cut, warns former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair
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Fed officials debunk talk of Fed rate cut in early 2024 : Williams says it is premature to discuss starting a rate cut in March 2024. Bostic says he expects Fed to start cutting rate in 3Q 2024 - BBG
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💡Ideas For GBPCAD 🇬🇧🇨🇦
📈 GBPCAD → Trend change and break of range support
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#GBPCAD is forming a trend change. The price is breaking the key support area and most likely the fall may continue within the channel
The Canadian is strengthening a bit stronger than the pound sterling, which is losing ground on the background of fundamental politics.
On the chart we see the formation of a fresh descending channel, but the range of 1.793 - 1.697 is more key for us. The price breaks the support of the range and forms a false breakdown in the correction phase. Consolidation of the price below the level will form a bearish potential can send the price to the mentioned target. (rlinda . com) The market may be interested in the lower boundary of the channel as a target.
In the long term we consider price strengthening from the trend support and classical trading of the price inside the bearish trend. It is also worth paying attention to the moving averages.
Resistance levels: 1.6977, 1.700
Support levels: 1.694, 1.6855
I expect a decline, a retest of the trend support (here is our target), which may be followed by a rebound before a further decline.
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#GBPCAD 🇬🇧🇨🇦
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👑 Ideas For XAUUSD / GOLD
📈 GOLD → Bears are around. The fall may continue, but....
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Last trading week, the market rattled everyone's nerves. And the reason for that was the incompetence of the Fed as a structure that has a huge influence on the market. The paradox of the Fed this week was that Fed Chairman Jeremy Powell gave a strong pattern on Tuesday that they are discussing rate cuts and are ready to do so in the future. (rlinda . com)As a consequence, an aggressive reaction is forming in the market in the form of a bullish momentum of 3%.
And on Friday, one of the Fed's representatives, Williams, said that they are not even going to consider this issue anytime soon. He also added that the Fed is seriously ready to raise rates if necessary. the market reacts with strong sell-offs of $300 or 1.5%.
The price is testing one of the strong support areas and from the technical analysis point of view, there is a chance to see a rebound and a retest of the local resistance before a further decline.
In the coming week it is worth paying attention to the following news, the data on which can also determine the medium-term outlook for the market:
• GDP QoQ, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia FED MI
• Core DGO, CORE PCE
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#XAUUSD 👑
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💡 Upd: #ETHUSD 🔷
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Ethereum continues to form an uptrend both on the high timeframe and on the low timeframe.
At the moment, the current setup on the market is an uptrending channel.
ETH is in the phase of testing trend support. After a false breakdown, a small rebound and retest of the support is formed.
In the zone of 2188 - 2128 there is a liquidity zone, (rlinda . com) which the market can test in the format of a false breakdown before further growth.
I have highlighted two possible scenarios on the chart:
1) Retest of the mentioned support area before further growth
2) Retest of the triangle resistance with the subsequent breakout of its upper boundary and formation of a bullish impulse.
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#ETHUSD 🔷
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And actually here is the reason for the fall of gold (rise of the dollar):
On the low timeframe, a sharp drop.
The fall came after William (Fed) words 🤡: briefly, he said about how they are not and have not considered lowering rates. (ha-ha). He then clarified again the complexity of inflation and they are willing to raise rates.
In the channel, I talked about how the market reaction to Powell's words is marasmus and pure market manipulation by the Fed. And Williams' words only confirm this.
It feels like the Fed and all of its members don't see or communicate with each other. The head says one thing and the reps say something else entirely. 🤡
I recently said that 1-2 days after Powell's words, the market may stabilize.
Once it stabilizes, we will be able to see the medium term outlook quite clearly.
Japan's high inflation is holding up much more strongly than other major economies, putting Japan's central bank in a quandary - FT
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Markets expect the Japanese central bank to begin its policy of no negative rates in early 2024
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