Current markets predict a 50% chance that the U.S. will fall into a recession by June 25.
Читать полностью…SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (9/18/24):
1. Fed cuts interest rates by 50 bps for the first time since 2020
2. Fed sees 2 more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024
3. One Fed governor dissented for the first time since 2005 in favor of a 25 bps rate cut
4. Fed gained "greater confidence" that inflation is moving to 2%
5. Fed will "carefully assess incoming data" and evolve the outlook
6. Fed sees 100 bps of rate cuts in 2025 and 50 bps of cuts in 2026
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. Forecasts: 63% predict a 0.5% rate cut, 37% predict a 0.25% cut.
Remember:
Trading on such days is very risky. It’s better to reassess our portfolio’s risk profile and prepare a medium-term action plan for various scenarios.
Whatever, Jerome Powell says will be crucial So keep an eye
Falling Spot CVD and price chopping higher at range high means only one thing - range low is coming.
Читать полностью…March, April, July, and August each saw record-breaking BTC trade volumes compared to previous years
Читать полностью…$BTC round-tripped that small bounce with spot bidders. Extremely weak now, see you at 56k soon.
Читать полностью…Key Events Scheduled This Week:
1. August Retail Sales data - Tue
2. August Building Permits data - Wed
3. Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wed
4. Fed Press Conference - Wed
5. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thu
6. August Existing Home Sales data - Thu
Gold just hit another all time high despite:
1. Markets pricing-out a 50 basis point rate cut
2. Markets pricing-out geopolitical risk worries
3. Market volatility dropping to new monthly lows
4. Monthly inflation data coming in above expectations
5. Markets pricing-out possibility of recession in 2024
Gold is trading as if we are in a major crisis while all of the data is saying the exact opposite.
Japanese public company Metaplanet stock performance after adopting the #Bitcoin strategy.
Читать полностью…🇺🇸 Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps:
▫️Jan 3, 2001
- S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days
- Unemployment rose another 2.1%
- Recession
▫️Sep 18, 2007
- S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days
- Unemployment rose another 5.3%
- Recession
spot buyers holding it above support for now. A M30 close above 60k should push it to range high at 61500
Читать полностью…Big Macro print today in some hours. The probability is higher for a 50bps cut but there are differences in opinions among economists where the majority of them agreed on a 25bps cut. Either way any move into 62k, I will short because this will be sell the news event.
The real Up trend starts once the market clears out the leverage longs.
Here are the current betting odds for what Jerome Powell and the Fed will do tomorrow according to Kalshi
Читать полностью…The U.S. election season has a profound impact on financial markets, as investors often adjust their strategies based on expectations of future policies. During election years, market volatility tends to increase, with stocks, bonds, and currencies reacting to campaign rhetoric, policy discussions, and potential outcomes.
Читать полностью…Tether’s market share has skyrocketed by 20% in two years, hitting 75% of the entire stablecoin market, while generating $400 million in revenue over the last 30 days.
Читать полностью…Binance Founder CZ Scheduled for Release on September 29, According to Federal Bureau of Prisons Website
Читать полностью…China Overnight Economic Data:
Unemployment Rate: Miss 🔴
Retail Sales: Miss 🔴
Industrial Production: Miss 🔴
Fixed Asset Investment: Miss 🔴
Companies & institutions have grown their #Bitcoin holdings by 587% over the past four years — River Financial
Читать полностью…Bitcoin ETF Inflow : 2024-09-13
Net Inflow : $263.2M
ETH ETF Inflow : 2024-09-13
Net Inflow : $1.5M