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The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.28
Today investors will be closely watching the FOMC Interest Rate meeting. The Federal Reserve is not planning to deviate from its strategy, so investors should not expect any significant changes in monetary policy.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.26
No excessive activity is expected in the market today. With a high probability the markets will take a wait-and-see attitude until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, so intraday trading will be the most preferable strategy in the coming days.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.22
On Thursday, the dollar continued to trade against most major currencies near multi-week lows as declining US Treasury yields reduced the dollar's profit margin. The euro traded without significant changes in anticipation of today's publication of the European Central Bank decisions following the scheduled meeting. Most analysts suggest that any positive comments on the EU's economic outlook or hints from the Central Bank of reducing bond purchases could trigger a rise in the European currency.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.20
The dollar fell to a fresh low against major currencies as the euro led the rally amid improving forecasts on the regional vaccination program. The euro support was likely related to the announcement that the European Union has received an additional 100 million COVID-19 vaccine doses from BioNTech and Pfizer. The dollar has already lost momentum as the US bonds yield has declined from its 14-month peak last month, moderating the attractiveness of dollar yields.
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The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.15
On Wednesday, in the absence of important economic data, the dollar index continued to decline, and traders focused on the credit market. German Bonds continued to rise versus US T-Note. The yield spread has reached -189%, showing the best results in the last two weeks. This factor supported the European currency against the US dollar. Also, the sharp rise in oil prices supported commodity currencies.
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The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.12
On Friday, the dollar index continued to remain under pressure amid statements by Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, who reaffirmed their commitment to soft monetary policy. The Minister of Finance indicated that the need to maintain low interest rates would be required in the upcoming years. After that, the head of the Fed announced the possibility of the monetary regulator to use the instruments that would put pressure on inflation without changing monetary policy.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.08
Quiet trading was observed on Wednesday. The dollar index rose slightly mainly due to the decline in commodity currencies and the sterling. The British currency fell sharply amid reports of problems with the AstraZeneca vaccine. Blood clots after its use continue to be reported, jeopardizing the drug's export and vaccination program to countries that depend on it, including the UK. The final PMI data from IHS Markit disappointed traders a little. The service sector index was below preliminary estimates in the UK and Italy. France, Italy, and Spain are still showing negative dynamics in this sector.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.06
On Monday, the dollar index fell sharply amid messages from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the need to adhere to a soft monetary policy in the next few years. In her opinion, the $1.9 trillion bill signed last month to combat the US pandemic will not cause inflationary pressures. Also, the Central Bank of China has decided to cap lending to 2020 levels. It caused a drop in Asian stock indices, a rise in the yen, and additional pressure on the US dollar.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.02
On Thursday, the dollar index fell in light of positive data on the manufacturing sector in Europe. Eurozone PMI rose to 62.5 in March, according to IHS Markit. Preliminary data indicated a rise to 62.4. Later in the American session, a similar index for the US from ISM was published. The US manufacturing sector grew to 64.7, the highest since December 1983. But the market showed little reaction to the data, as there was a decline in trade volumes ahead of the holiday weekend. Markets in the three main financial regions of the US, the Eurozone, and the UK will be partially closed today. So, a decrease in volatility can be observed.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.01
On Wednesday, the dollar index slowed growth and even closed in the red in the light of slightly lower-than-expected ADP data. According to the institute’s research released on Wednesday, the workforce increased by 517,000 in March, and the February figures were revised to 176,000. The median forecast of economists was 550,000. However, it is still a significant hiring rate. Leisure and hospitality accounted for the bulk of the growth, indicating a faster recovery in the labor market. Small and medium-sized businesses showed higher employment growth than large companies in March.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.30
On Monday, the dollar index resumed its growth amid positive expectations for the labor market data. After the announcement of declining initial jobless claims and rising consumer confidence, the median NFP forecast was 643,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 0.2% lower. In this light, the yield of American Treasuries reached 1.74%, and their spread with German and British bonds rose to new record levels, which supported the dollar.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.26
On Thursday, the US GDP data was released. The final result was 0.2% higher and amounted to 4.3%, which allowed the dollar index to continue to grow and renew the highs of March 9. In addition, the decline in the number of initial jobless claims strengthened the position of the US dollar. The exception in the foreign exchange market was the sterling, which rose against the dollar amid the start of trade negotiations between the EU and the UK. The market sees this as the beginning of a warming relationship between the two sides.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.24
As a quick resumption of global economic growth came into question again, market sentiment changed. Germany, France, and Italy have expanded restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic, while other countries are also seeing a sharp increase in the number of infected. The head of the World Health Organization called the recent rise in mortality and morbidity "truly worrying trends." Also, the US National Institute for Infectious Diseases questioned the effectiveness of the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which led to an even more significant fall in stock prices and, as a result, a rise in the dollar across the entire spectrum of the market.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.27
Today, investors expect a positive release of macroeconomic statistics on Consumer Confidence, but there are concerns about the U.S. currency optimism, as the U.S.Treasury plans to redeem $15 billion of bonds today.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.23
Today, investors are waiting for PMI data in the manufacturing sector in the US and Germany. Analysts expect positive news, which is thought unlikely to have a strong impact on the euro or the dollar dynamics since market participants focus on the upcoming Fed meeting.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.21
Yesterday, the dollar strengthened amid declining stock prices in the major US stock exchanges due to new coronavirus outbreaks in India and Canada. The news had a negative impact on the positive sentiment of most market participants and reduced the likelihood of a rapid global economic recovery.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.19
On Monday, the dollar was trading near a one-month low against most other major currencies. The US Treasury yields have also been near their lows for the past five weeks since the US Federal Reserve reaffirmed that any spike in inflation wouldn’t last long.
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The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.14
On Tuesday, the dollar index continued to decline amid strong economic performance in Europe. The ZEW Index stays consistently above 70, while investor expectations continue to rise. In this light, the yield spread between the American T-Note and German Bonds rose to -192%, which supported the bulls in the euro against the dollar. Also, February manufacturing figures unexpectedly rose to 1.3%, while economists' forecast was 0.5%. This factor helped to stop sterling's steep dive.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.13
On Monday, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve released data on the change in assets on their balance sheets. The European Central Bank's index fell by €10.91 billion over the past week, while the Federal Reserve increased the figure by $19.89 billion. Thus, the Fed prints money more actively than the ECB, which negatively affects the dollar. The commodity market remains in demand for metals and energy, which will have a negative impact on the value of the dollar since raw materials are quoted in the US currency. Investors are waiting for the rapid growth of the global economy in the summer and are playing out this trend in advance by purchasing exchange commodities.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.09
On Thursday, the dollar index declined in light of Jerome Powell’s comments and labor market data. The head of the Fed says that the monetary regulator has tools to combat high inflation, and they will be applied if necessary. This statement underlined the central bank's commitment to keeping interest rates low. Labor market data showed volatility. Recent jobless claims rose to 744K, while the forecast was 680K.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.07
On Tuesday, the yield on 2-year US bonds continued to fall, and the dollar index declined after the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen’s statements. The European currency accelerated growth on the back of positive data from Sentix. According to the company's research, the index of investors' expectations for the economic recovery in the Eurozone reached a record level of 34.8. The current situation index jumped to levels last seen before the pandemic. The British currency came under pressure after Boris Johnson's messages about a delay in air travel resumption due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.05
Important data on the US labor market was released on Friday. NFP numbers came out very high at 916,000, well above the median of 660K. The change in the unemployment rate was in line with the forecast of 6.0 %. In this light, the US dollar rose slightly. Low volatility is due to lower trading volumes ahead of the holiday weekend. Today the market will assess the state of the service sector in the United States, and the volatility in the foreign exchange market may gradually increase.
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The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.31
On Tuesday, the dollar index rose the most in the past five trading days, as optimism about the US labor market increased. The NFP forecast rose even more to 680,000 after the publication of CBI data. Consumer confidence in the US has reached an annual high in March. According to a Tuesday’s report, the Conference Board Index rose to 109.7, compared to 90.4 in February. It was the sharpest monthly gain in nearly 18 years and beat the most optimistic forecasts in the economists’ survey. In this light, American Treasuries have grown above 1.73%, and the dollar continues to grow.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.29
On Friday, the dollar index fell slightly amid a slowdown in inflation. The price index for the Fed surprised the market a little. The core PCE price index declined by 0.1% to 1.4% on an annualized basis, which slightly eased worries over an imminent monetary tightening. However, other indicators are positive, allowing the dollar to remain bullish. Consumer sentiment indices continue to rise, indicating a recovery in the labor market.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.25
The main Wednesday event was the release of PMI data from IHS Markit. According to preliminary data, Germany’s production rose at a record pace in March, which led to the European economy’s recovery. Purchasing managers' indices from the two largest Eurozone economies – Germany and France – surpassed economists' estimates as orders soared and confidence that quarantine measures would eventually end boosted hiring. In Germany, the survey results are "hinting at the prospect of a better-than-expected economic performance in the first quarter," said Phil Smith, an IHS Markit economist.
The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.23
On Monday, in the absence of important macroeconomic news, the market stayed calm. The dollar index closed the gap formed at the opening of this week’s trading. The market is still ignoring new measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Germany. According to chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan, all stores will be closed for five days from April 1, except for grocery stores, which will open on April 3. People will be asked to stay at home, private meetings will be limited to one household and a maximum of five people, and public meetings will be prohibited.
