infinityhedge

03 февраля 2025 14:08

The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge | Major Earnings

WEEKLY US SPOT ETF FLOWS:
*BTC: +$559M
*ETH: -$45.5M

US BTC spot ETF Options:
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Nominal): 2.16
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Delta): 4.65

Macro:
*U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will kick in from Tuesday. Trump says he will speak to Mexico and Canada's leaders on Monday and China also sees room to negotiate. (so negotiations will start) (will Trump back down with offers? If yes, on what conditions markets will be watching)
*Tariffs: Market will be watching for any announcements by Trump on tariffs and the broader fallout after Trump’s tariff war. Canada, Mexico vowed to hit back at US levies with tit-for-tat measures, while China vowed “corresponding countermeasures,” without announcing any new tariffs. Tariffs will affect trade worth ~$1.3T, representing ~5% of US GDP. Tariff impacts in Trump's first term suggest this could knock 1.2% off GDP and add ~0.7% to core PCE. JPM & Morgan Stanley said that sustained 25% US tariffs will throw Mexico & Canada into recession.
*China’s Financial Markets will re-open after the lunar new year holiday on 5
*US NFP & Unemployment Rate on 7
*Fed Speakers Whole week

ICYMI Trump:
*Trump: Holding the rates at this point was the right thing to do (surprising news)
*Trump: Pain from tariffs will be worth the price
*Trump: we'll be doing something very substantial on tariffs with European Union. Trump said he will “definitely” place new tariffs on the EU.

Earnings:
*Google, AMD on 4
*MicroStrategy, ARM on 5
*Amazon on 6

Crypto:.
*Bybit CEO said liquidations underreported, estimates $8-10B Total Liquidations in the last 24hrs. (Other exchanges might release more data during week)

Interesting:
What a start to the year for markets ...
This week, Tariffs
Last week, DeepSeek
Two weeks ago, Inauguration
Three weeks ago, LA wildfires

Post will be refreshed w/ new info and Graphics/Articles are in the group⬎

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 22:07

TRUMP SAYS HE WILL IMPOSE TARIFFS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION

TRUMP: WE'LL BE DOING SOMETHING VERY SUBSTANTIAL ON TARIFFS WITH EUROPEAN UNION

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 21:53

TRUMP: WE WILL PUT TARIFFS ON CHIPS AND OIL AND GAS

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 21:51

TRUMP: NOTHING CAN BE DONE BY CHINA, MEXICO AND CANADA RIGHT NOW TO FORESTALL TARIFFS

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 19:22

WHITE HOUSE: REUTERS REPORT ON TARIFF PLAN FALSE

*WHITE HOUSE: FEB. 1 DEADLINE FOR 25% TARIFFS ON MEXICO, CANADA STILL HOLD

*TARIFF DETAILS TO BE RELEASED SATURDAY

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 16:03

OPENAI TO LAUNCH NEW O3-MINI MODEL TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPSEEK: WIRED

infinityhedge

30 января 2025 16:15

GOLD HITS NEW ALL-TIME HIGH

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 21:18

*POWELL: FED'S ROLE WITH CRYPTO IS TO LOOK AT BANKS

*POWELL: BANKS ARE PERFECTLY ABLE TO SERVE CRYPTO CUSTOMERS AS LONG AS THEY MANAGE THE RISKS

*POWELL: FED DOESN'T WANT BANKS TO TERMINATE LEGAL CUSTOMERS

*POWELL: GREATER REGULATION ON CRYPTO WOULD BE HELPFUL

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 21:03

*POWELL: MOST RECENT DATA SUGGEST RESERVES ARE STILL ABUNDANT

*FED'S POWELL: WE INTEND TO REDUCE THE BALANCE SHEET SIZE

Powell gives an update on balance sheet policy that suggests no imminent changes:

*Reserves are still abundant.
*We're closely monitoring conditions.
*I don't have anything to say about particular dates.

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:45

*POWELL: WE DO EXPECT TO SEE FURTHER PROGRESS ON INFLATION

*POWELL: RIGHT NOW WE FEEL LIKE WE'RE IN A VERY GOOD PLACE

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:41

*POWELL: SENTENCE ON INFLATION NOT MEANT TO SEND SIGNAL

Powell says removal of "inflation" line is just clean up to shorten sentence, not determination that inflation is rising again

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:34

*POWELL: WE DON'T NEED TO BE IN HURRY TO ADJUST POLICY STANCE

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:03

*TRADERS PRICE IN LESS FED EASING THIS YEAR AFTER FOMC STATEMENT

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:00

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 18:10

Anthropic CEO on DeepSeek: LINK

*DeepSeek produced a model close to the performance of US models 7-10 months older, for a good deal less cost (but not anywhere near the ratios people have suggested.

*DeepSeek-V3 is not a unique breakthrough or something that fundamentally changes the economics of LLM’s; it’s an expected point on an ongoing cost reduction curve. What’s different this time is that the company that was first to demonstrate the expected cost reductions was Chinese. US companies will soon follow suit — and they won’t do this by copying DeepSeek, but because they too are achieving the usual trend in cost reduction.

*It's been reported DeepSeek actually had 50k Hopper generation chips6, which I'd guess is within a factor ~2-3x of what the major US AI companies have. Those 50k Hopper chips cost on the order of ~$1B. Thus, DeepSeek's total spend as a company (as distinct from spend to train an individual model) is not vastly different from US AI labs.

*R1, which is the model that was released last week and which triggered an explosion of public attention (including a ~17% decrease in Nvidia's stock price), is much less interesting from an innovation or engineering perspective than V3.

*Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027. (AGI prediction?👀)

infinityhedge

03 февраля 2025 14:02

MICROSTRATEGY DID NOT BUY ANY BITCOIN FROM JAN. 27 TO FEB. 2: BBG

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 22:02

TRUMP: I'M BRINGING TOMORROW’S TARIFFS DOWN TO 10% ON CANADIAN OIL

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 21:52

TRUMP: WE MAY INCREASE TARIFFS

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 19:23

WHITE HOUSE: CANADA AND MEXICO TARIFF AT 25% AND CHINA AT 10%.

infinityhedge

31 января 2025 17:14

GOOGLE SAYS BRINGING NVIDIA BLACKWELL GPUS TO GOOGLE CLOUD WITH PREVIEW OF A4 VMS

infinityhedge

30 января 2025 20:30

OpenAl in Talks for Huge Investment Round Valuing It Up to $340 Billion: WSJ

*SoftBank in Discussions to Lead Round and Invest $15 Billion to $25 Billion: Sources

*OpenAI was last valued at $157 billion in October, when it raised $6.6 billion

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 22:29

DEEPSEEK INTERNAL DATABASE PUBLICLY EXPOSED ⚠️

*Wiz Research has discovered "DeepLeak" - a publicly accessible ClickHouse database belonging to DeepSeek, exposing highly sensitive information, including secret keys, plain-text chat messages, backend details, and logs.

*Wiz Research team immediately disclosed the issue to DeepSeek, which promptly secured the exposure.

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 21:15

*POWELL, ASKED ABOUT MARCH RATE CUT REPEATS DON'T NEED TO HURRY

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:58

*POWELL: I WOULD SAY WE'RE MEANINGFULLY ABOVE NEUTRAL RATE

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:43

*POWELL: FED VERY MUCH WAITING TO SEE WHAT POLICIES ARE ENACTED

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:37

*POWELL: DON'T HAVE COMMENT ON WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID

*POWELL: I'VE HAD NO CONTACT WITH THE PRESIDENT

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:07

*TRADERS EXPECT THE FED TO WAIT UNTIL JUNE TO CUT RATES, BASED ON SHORT-TERM INTEREST-RATE FUTURES.

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 20:01

*FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO INFLATION MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 19:03

TRUMP OFFICIALS DISCUSS TIGHTENING CURBS ON NVIDIA CHINA SALES

infinityhedge

29 января 2025 16:57

LUTNICK: TETHER DID NO BUSINESS WITH ANYONE WHO WASN’T KYC-APPROPRIATE

LUTNICK: US DOLLAR STABLECOINS SHOULD BE AUDITED