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infinityhedge

02 мая 2025 13:08

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ ERASED ALMOST ALL LOSSES SINCE RECIPROCAL TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT

So what's changed, developments so far:

*April 2: Trump announced reciprocal Tariffs all nations
*April 3: Lutnick said no chance trump will back off tariffs
*April 4: China announced retaliatory tariffs on US and imposed more export controls on rare earths
*April 7: Trump said their is no inflation FED should cut rates
*April 8: Trump on reducing tariffs on israel: maybe not
*April 9: China and the EU agreed to restart talks
*April 9: Trump announced tariff pause for 90 days with 10% Tariffs during this period (China was excluded from pause)
*April 10: China and EU discuss trade in response to U.S. tariffs
*April 10: Trump said Sectoral tariffs still coming, going to put tariffs on pharma companies (not announced yet)
*April 11: Trump exempted many electronics including smartphones, computers, semiconductors from reciprocal tariffs (China was included)
*April 13: Trump said electronics Exclusions are temporary & new more targeted tariffs are coming (sectoral tariffs)
*April 14: Bessent said prioritizing trade deals with the UK, Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan: infinityhedge
*April 15: Bessent said VIX likely peaked
*April 15: US announced it will impose 21% tariffs on Mexico tomatoes starting july 14
*April 15: EU Source said US tariffs to remain as talks make little progress
*April 16: Powell said economic impact of tariffs likely larger than expected; inflationary effects of tariffs may be more persistent; tariffs larger than we expected
*April 16: China pivots from US to Canada for more Oil
*April 17: Trump said powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!: infinityhedge
*April 18: US banned nvidia from exporting H20 chips to China, at $5.5B cost to Nvidia
*April 23: Trump said NO intention of firing powell
*April 23: Trump said US and China are actively talking about a trade deal, Trump said he will not call China's President XI first but XI called him but didn't share exactly when they talked
*April 24: China said China-US are not engaged in any negotiations over tariffs
*April 25: China quietly exempted some US made products ($40B) from Tariffs, strategic move mirrors to that electronic exemption by US
*April 25-28: US keep saying we are talking to China and China was keep saying we are not talking
*April 27: South Korea ruled out tariff deal with US before June 3 election
*April 28: Bessent said India might be one of first trade deals we'll sign
*April 29: US said EU not engaging well on tariff talks
*April 29: Trump walked back some Auto tariffs: 25% tariffs on vehicles will not be subject to other levies like 25% steel & aluminum tariffs & Carmakers will be able to qualify for some relief on imported components for the next two years.
*April 30: China to lift sanctions on EU lawmakers to unlock trade talks
*April 30: China Media said US reached out to China recently for tariff talk but China will not talk unless US do something meaningful first
*May 1: Trump threatened sanctions on anyone who buys Iranian oil (largest buyer is china), a warning after Tehran’s nuclear talks postponed
*May 1: BOJ's Uedo expects tarriffs to remain above 10% baseline and later that day Japanese finance minister said Japan’s US Treasury holdings a card in trade negotiation
*May 2: China said US reached out for talk via various channels, China is assessing the situation and reiterated that US should show sincerity & cancel the unilateral tariff first
*May 2: Japan firmly opposed US trade proposal. Japan to take stance that negotiations on reducing US trade deficit are difficult unless tariffs on autos, steel, aluminium are on negotiating table, US proposal included reluctance to exempt Japan from 10% tariffs & lowering tariffs on autos, steel, aluminium
*May 2: “de minimis” exemption from tariffs will end

*No deal Announced so far 90 days gone & 67 days left for Reciprocal Tariffs pause to end (China excluded from pause)

*Apollo Chief Economist: It normally takes 18 months on average for the US to negotiate a trade deal