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TRADERS SEE FED CUTTING RATES ONCE IN 2025, NO EARLIER THAN JUNE — SHIFT FULL PRICING OF NEXT FED RATE CUT TO OCTOBER, AFTER STRONG JOBS DECEMBER JOBS DATA
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U.S. December NFP in 3hr:
Estimates:
Median: 165k
High: 268k
Low: 120k
Previous: 227k
Forecaster:
*BBG: 268K
*UBS: 180k
*BofA: 175K
*BNP: 165k
*JPM: 150k
*GS: 125k
*CITI: 120k
*JP Morgan SPX Play:
>220k: loses 0.5-1%
180k-220k: gains 0.25-0.75%
140k-180k: gains 0.25-0.5%
100k-140k: loses 0.25-0.75%
<100k: loses 0.75-1.5%
*Goldman SPX Play:
>200k: loses atleast 1%
175k-200k: loses 0.5–1%
150k-175k: +/- 0.5%
125k-150k: gains 0–0.5%
100k-125k: gains 0.5-1%
<100k: loses 0-0.5%
*Unemployment Rate Est.: 4.2% (unchanged from Nov.)
The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge
WEEKLY US SPOT ETF FLOWS:
*BTC: +$244M
*ETH: -$38M
US BTC spot ETF Options:
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Nominal): 1.77
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Delta): 3.17
Macro:
*U.S. 10-Year Note Auction & FED Minutes on 8
*U.S. NFP and Unemployment Rate data on 10 (unlikely to alter the Fed view on slower pace of rate cuts)
*CES 2025 will take place in Las Vegas from January 7-10, Jensen will deliver his keynote Monday, January 6 at 6:30 p.m. PT
*Trump to be sentenced in ‘hush money’ trial on Jan. 10, Judge said he does not intend to sentence Trump to jail. Judge signaled in a written decision that he’d sentence the former & future president to what’s known as a conditional discharge, in which a case gets dismissed if a defendant avoids rearrest.
*US Supreme Court to hear arguments on a law that would ban TikTok if it is not sold to an American company on 10
Crypto:
*Bybit will no longer provide withdrawal & custody services to nationals/residents of the French. On Jan 8, 2025, at 8AM UTC, all remaining crypto and/or fiat assets on Bybit will be converted to USDC so, withdrawn before this date.
*Uniswap’s L2 ‘Unichain’ Sepolia will undergo maintenance to enable Permissionless Fault Proofs, ahead of the public mainnet launch in Early 2025. Once the new system’s safety and stability are validated, mainnet will be open for everyone.
*MicroStrategy‘s weekly Bitcoin purchases expected, MicroStrategy stock down 50% from its ATH and down 30% after nasdaq-100 inclusion announcement.[ICYMI: MicroStrategy to Target a Capital Raise of Up to $2B of Preferred Stock to acquire more Bitcoin, this builds upon a previously announced 21/21 plan ($42B)].
*Do Kwon pleaded not guilty to charges of fraud following his extradition to the U.S., A status conference in the case is scheduled for Jan. 8
*USUAL Fee Switch on 7.
*Sonic SVM (first SVM on solana) TGE on 7.
*Token Unlocks: APT ($100M+) on 11
*Event: Consensus Hong Kong 2025 (Feb 18-20). Speakers: Richard Teng, Lily Liu(Solana Foundation), Adam Back, Hong Fang(OKX), Johann Kerbrat(Robinhood Crypto), Coplan(Polymarket), Evgeny(Wintermute), Paul (Pantera Capital), Avery(Aptos), Evan(SUI), Dominic(DFINITY), Ian(Ondo), Shuyao(MegaETH),
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“The consensus on Wall Street is that US economic exceptionalism will continue in 2025. Nonfarm payrolls will add fuel to such talk. We expect December’s headline print to be a blowout, with most sectors showing improved hiring. Some of that may be a continued reversal from October’s weak, hurricane-affected print — something that won’t last. We also expect job openings to stabilize, and jobless claims to remain low.”
Earnings/Charts/Articles ⬎
2025: Outlook | Narratives | Predictions: Aggregated by infinityhedge
A Compilation of Forecasts from a16z, Coinbase, Vaneck, and more
All reports are available in group👇
Microsoft and OpenAI's Definition of AGI Tied to $100 Billion Profit for Microsoft & Early Investors: The Information
*AGI will be achieved only when OpenAI developed systems that have the ability to generate $100 billion in total profits.
AFTER HAWKISH FOMC ⚠️
*S&P 500 CLOSES 3% LOWER
*NASDAQ 100 FALLS 3.6%
*GOLD DOWN 2%
*BTC DOWN 4%
POWELL: SLOWER PACE OF RATE CUTS REFLECTS EXPECTATION OF HIGHER INFLATION
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*US RATE FUTURES PRICE IN MORE THAN 90% CHANCE FED WILL HOLD RATES AT JANUARY MEETING
*US RATE FUTURES PRICE IN JUST TWO RATE CUTS IN 2025 AFTER FED EASES BY 25 BPS
MICROSTRATEGY ACQUIRED 15,350 BITCOINS FOR ABOUT $1.5B IN CASH AT AN AVG. PRICE OF $100,386 PER BITCOIN BETWEEN DECEMBER 9 AND DECEMBER 15, 2024
As of Dec. 15, 2024, MicroStrategy holds 439,000 BTC, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approx. $27.1B and an avg. purchase price of approx. $61,725 per Bitcoin.
*MICROSTRATEGY TO JOIN NASDAQ-100 INDEX BEGINNING DECEMBER 23, 2024
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NATO CHIEF RUTTE: RUSSIA PREPARING FOR LONG-TERM CONFRONTATION WITH UKRAINE AND NATO
NATO CHIEF RUTTE: WE ARE NOT READY FOR WHAT IS COMING IN 4-5 YEARS
MicroStrategy checks all the boxes for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index. There's just one catch: Bloomberg
*Nasdaq could use the small size of MicroStrategy’s operating business as a reason not to add the company to the index.
*The ICB could choose to reclassify MicroStrategy as a financial stock during the next change in March, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart.
*MicroStrategy is now more similar to a commodity or an ETF since it is “essentially a dead company” without its Bitcoin. A large majority of the company is just purely its Bitcoin holdings and the financial machinations around it, so it is a financial company: Michael Lebowitz
*NOTE: Financial companies are ineligible for the Nasdaq 100
ELON MUSK BECOMES FIRST PERSON TO EXCEED $400 BILLION NET WORTH
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FED'S WALLER: I WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CUTS IN 2025 BUT PACE WILL DEPEND ON FURTHER INFLATION PROGRESS
FED'S WALLER: I DON'T EXPECT TARIFFS TO HAVE A SIGINFICANT IMPACT ON INFLATION
FED'S WALLER: LONG TERM YIELDS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN INFLATION PREMIUM, BUT SAYS FED WILL FIX THAT — U.S. DEFICITS MAY ALSO BE DRIVING LONG YIELDS HIGHER
Key quote: “My bottom-line message is that I believe more cuts will be appropriate”
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe, here comes 2025's crazy show. Buckle up little pigs, it's gonna be one hell of a ride
happy new year
The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge | Merry Christmas 🎄⛄️
WEEKLY US SPOT ETF FLOWS:
*BTC: +$449M (record outflow recorded last week)
*ETH: +$63M
US BTC SPOT ETF OPTIONS:
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Nominal): 1.87
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Delta): 2.54
Macro:
*BOJ governor Ueda speech on 25
*Christmas: US & other markets closed on 25
Crypto:
*Microstrategy will join Nasdaq 100 Index on 23
*⚠️ Alert: MetaMask's Tay warned Hyperliquid (decentralized exchange) about North Korean hackers (DPRK) interacting with the platform, possibly testing for weaknesses. (It's Highly irregular acc. to tay, Especially when it’s not for laundering)
Tay:
DPRK doesn't trade. DPRK tests,
Tbh, if I were the dude managing Hyperliquid's four validators (or those fucking ghetto-ass binaries on GH), I would be shitting my pants right now.
*POWELL: FED NOT ALLOWED TO OWN BITCOIN
*POWELL: FED NOT LOOKING FOR CHANGE IN LAW ABOUT WHAT WE CAN OWN
NOTE: POWELL HAS SAID MANY TIME BEFORE THAT THEY ARE NOT ALLOWED TO OWN BITCOIN, THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
*POWELL: WE CAN NOW BE MORE CAUTIOUS IN REDUCING POLICY RATE
POWELL: TODAY WAS A CLOSER CALL BUT THE RIGHT CALL
FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 50 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2025 TO 3.9%
*FED OFFICIALS NOW SEE INFLATION HITTING 2% IN 2027 VS 2026
*FOMC MEDIAN 2025 PCE INFLATION FORECAST RISES TO 2.5% VS 2.1%
The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge
MON/16:
*Ethena’s announcement, likely related to it’s new stablecoin $USDtb, backed by BlackRock's BUIDL, which is expected to go live today
*Avalanche9000 (ETNA upgrade) to go live on mainnet
*Stacks to open Bitcoin Deposits for sBTC Rollout & Incentive Program
TUE/17:
*Cosmos announcement related to The Role of Cosmos, the Hub, and ATOM
*NEAR Protocol ? announcement
WED/18:
*Fed Interest Rate Decision
THU/19:
*BoJ Interest Rate Decision
*BoE Interest Rate Decision
*Putin to deliver his annual press conference
FRI/20:
*Core PCE
*China: Prime Loan Rate interest rate announcement
*ZRO holders will vote on fee switch proposal, Voting ends Dec 27
Earnings/Charts/Articles ⬎
[20MIN AGO] MICHAEL SAYLOR HINTS AT ANOTHER BITCOIN PURCHASE, Tweets "is saylortracker missing a green dot ?"
*PREVIOUS SIMILAR TWEETS LED TO ANNOUNCEMENT OF BITCOIN PURCHASE THE NEXT DAY
CRYPTO EXCHANGE GATE IS NOT HACKED: EXCHANGE
"Deposits, withdrawals, and trading are all currently operating normally - don't believe the rumors": Chief Business Officer of Gate io
Context: a rumor surrounding hack began spreading on social media based on one source, yes just one unverified source.
BlackRock Recommends A 2% Bitcoin Allocation
*Blackrock only recommends a maximum of 2% as appropriate for most investors it does hint that future price gains may be more difficult. “The return characteristics are likely to change significantly once we reach a target state where potentially the portfolio allocation is much more tactical like gold and is used for hedging with a very different set of characteristics,” says Cohen (Chief Investment Officer of ETF at Blackrock)
TIME MAGAZINE TO NAME TRUMP ‘PERSON OF THE YEAR’: POLITICO
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