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Fastest Breaking Markets Updates Crypto • Finance • Technology • War
NVIDIA CEO HUANG SAYS TO CONTINUE TO COOPERATE WITH CHINA - CCTV
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ETHEREUM FOUNDATION EXPLORING STAKING OPTIONS: VITALIK
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TRUMP MEMECOIN CRASHED 50% AFTER MELANIA TRUMP'S MEMECOIN LAUNCH
*TRUMP'S OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS REPOSTED MELANIA MEMECOIN LAUNCH POST
TRUMP'S WORLD LIBERTY FINANCIAL BOUGHT $20M ETH: ARKHAM DATA
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*TRUMP MEMECOIN SURPASSED SHIBA INU IN MARKET CAP
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DIGITAL CURRENCY GROUP CHARGED BY SEC FOR MISLEADING INVESTORS: FILING
SEC SANCTIONS GENESIS CEO FOR MISLEADING CRYPTO INVESTORS: FILING
POPULAR SHORT SELLER 'HINDENBERG RESEARCH' SHUTS DOWN: LINK
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*TRADERS PRICE IN FED RATE CUT BY JULY VS SEPTEMBER PREVIOUSLY
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*US DEC. CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. CORE CPI RISES 3.2% Y/Y, EST. +3.3%
*US DEC. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.4% M/M, EST. +0.4%
*US DEC. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%
Components of PPI report that matters for PCE (FED's preferred measure of inflation)
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U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD LIKELY TO CROSS 5% THIS YEAR, SAID 24 OF 36 BOND STRATEGISTS: REUTERS POLL
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[1hr ago] CHINA BUILDING NEW MOBILE PIERS FOR POSSIBLE INVASION OF TAIWAN -FT
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FED FUND FUTURES SHOW TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUT BY YEAR-END
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TRUMP TO LAY OUT TRADE VISION BUT WON'T IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS YET - WSJ
*DOLLAR FALLS AFTER WSJ REPORT THAT TRUMP WON’T IMPOSE TARIFFS ON FIRST DAY
Sam Altman: We are not gonna deploy AGI next month, nor have we built it.
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MICHAEL SAYLOR HINTED AT ANOTHER BITCOIN BUY DESPITE BLACKOUT PERIOD REPORTS
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ETHBTC RATIO PLUNGES TO 0.03, LOWEST IN NEARLY 4 YEARS
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Phantom Wallet Raises $150 Million At $3 Billion Valuation: BBG
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James Seyffart (ETF Research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence) on Altcoin ETFs in 2025: Blockworks
*James Seyffart said that SSAs with exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, could satisfy the SEC's concerns about market manipulation, but the SEC has historically leaned on futures markets for approval and also SEC have lawsuits against these exchanges.
*He also said their are no SOL ETF deadlines because the SEC just didn't acknowledge filings so they basically denied them outright. He suggested that a change in SEC leadership, particularly under a potential Trump administration, could expedite the process. However, he cautioned against overly optimistic market expectations, noting that even with a more crypto-friendly SEC chair like Paul Atkins, the approval process could take until 2026. While he believes the approval of altcoin ETFs is a matter of "when, not if," he does not guarantee it will happen in 2025.
*He pointed out that if issuers file much of Solana ETF filings right after Gary Gensler steps down and a new administration takes office, the SEC's acknowledgment of these filings within a couple of weeks could provide a clearer timeline for approval. However, he questioned whether the SEC would prioritize these filings while other divisions still have open cases labeling these assets as securities. SEC might drop lawsuits against exchanges or settle them, which could pave the way for a more favorable regulatory environment. This would depend on the new leadership's willingness to resolve these legal disputes and align the SEC's internal divisions.
*Seyffart also highlighted the irony of SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s past involvement in teaching blockchain and crypto at MIT, contrasting it with his stringent regulatory stance under the Biden administration. He predicted that while a new administration might reduce regulatory headwinds, it won’t be a "free-for-all," as the SEC will still target bad actors and enforce rules.
*On 2025 Outlook: He predicts trump will repeal SAB 121 and US will not sell any more of BTC they currently holds. (He is less optimistic on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, He don't think Reserve helps all that much)
*TRUMP'S SEC TO OVERHAUL CRYPTO POLICY, MAY FREEZE ENFORCEMENT: RTRS
*In the first few days of the new administration, the SEC is expected to begin a review of those court cases and potentially freeze some litigation that does not involve allegations of fraud, said two of the sources. Some of those cases could eventually be withdrawn.
*TREASURY YIELDS FALL AFTER CORE CPI RISES LESS THAN ESTIMATED
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U.S. December CPI in 2hr 50min:
BBG ESTIMATES:
*headline: 2.9% Y/Y
*Headline: 0.3% M/M
*CORE CPI: 3.3% Y/Y
*CORE CPI: 0.3% M/M
*hot CPI number could further cement the idea that there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2025 and may even give rise to the possibility of a hike, whereas cool number might help calm market.
*S&P 500 Index is expected to move 1.1% in either direction, That’s the largest implied move ahead of a CPI print since the regional bank turmoil in March 2023.
Note: While the PPI was below expectations on Tuesday, some components from the PPI that feed into the PCE were firm in December, namely a big increase in domestic airfares. Though Looking back at 10 years of history: When headline and core PPI both fall short of expectations---CPI for the same month has come in hot only 21% of the time.
*Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 correlation is at the highest since 2022.
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.4%
*US DEC. CORE PPI UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US DEC. CORE PPI RISES 3.5% Y/Y; EST. +3.8%
LAST ~7 DAYS:
*GOLD +2%
*DXY +2%
*OIL +6%
*US 30Y TREASURY YIELD +3.3%
*US 10Y TREASURY YIELD +4.3%
*SPX DOWN 4%
*BTC DOWN 12%
*NVIDIA DOWN 15%
*COINBASE DOWN 18%
*MICROSTRATEGY DOWN 20%
MICROSTRATEGY ACQUIRED 2,530 BITCOINS FOR ABOUT $243M IN CASH AT AN AVG. PRICE OF $95,972 PER BITCOIN BETWEEN JANUARY 6 AND 12, 2025
As of January 12, 2025 MicroStrategy holds 450k Bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approx. $28.2B and an average purchase price of approximately $62,691 per Bitcoin.
US DOLLAR INDEX CLIMBS ABOVE 110 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2022
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The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge
WEEKLY US SPOT ETF FLOWS:
*BTC: +$307M
*ETH: -$185M
US BTC spot ETF Options:
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Nominal): 1.68
*Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Delta): 2.04
Macro:
*U.S. PPI on 14
*U.S. CPI data on 15
*China GDP (YoY) (Q4) on 17
*TikTok will be banned from operating in the United States unless its owner, ByteDance, sells it by Jan. 19. Creators/Users right to get all their data back from TikTok before a potential ban also expires on 19, so export your data. ⚠️
*Presidential Inauguration Ceremony, Trump will take office and Gensler is set to depart the SEC on Jan. 20
Earnings:
*Fourth-quarter earnings season will officially kick off on 15. S&P 500 Will Likely Report Highest Earnings Growth in 3 Years for Q4 and it threatens to put equities on a shaky footing if the results — or the outlook for the months ahead — fall short. Analysts are calling for 13% EPS growth in 2025 but acc. to BI data those projections would need to nearly double (23%) to justify where the S&P 500 trades (graphic in group). Profit growth is expected to broaden in 2025, with healthcare leading the way along with tech, and much stronger performance seen in industrials, materials and energy compared with 2024, based on the LSEG data (graphic in group). ⚠️
*JPMorgan, Citi & Blackrock earnings on 15
*TSMC, Goldman Sachs, BOA & Morgan Stanley earnings on 16
Crypto:
*Bybit to Temporarily Restrict Services in India, effective Jan 12, 2025, 8AM UTC ⚠️
*MicroStrategy‘s weekly Bitcoin purchase expected
*Derive (formerly Lyra) TGE on 15
*FTX Repayments KYC & other requirements Deadline for Claims < $50k on 20
*Major Token Unlocks: ARB ($60M+) on 16
*Fuel Airdrop Claim window expires on 19 ⚠️
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“Recent FOMC communications indicate several members see the disinflation process as temporarily stalled, or see risks that it could. December’s CPI report is likely to support the view that it has indeed stalled, adding to the case for a careful approach to monetary-policy decisions in coming quarters.”
*Post will be updated with new info and Graphics/Articles are in the group⬎