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▪️About blockchain, cryptocurrency and crypto technologies. ▪️Actual entry and exit points in the cryptocurrency market 🔹Channel: @finsignal 🔹Buy ads: https://telega.io/c/finsignal
❓ Which path will Bitcoin choose in the coming days
The weekly Glassnode review analyzes two likely scenarios of the behavior of the first cryptocurrency: either the coin has already found the bottom at $21,550 and there will be no deeper dive, or it's too early to talk about the day, and BTC may jump to $23,660.
According to researchers, after the collapse of FTX, the phase of long-term accumulation of bitcoin resumed. This happened in 2015-2016 and in 2019. After the November turbulence, most investors started saving, and whale wallets (from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) mostly redistributed coins.
✅ Glassnode also indicates a surge in the registration of new BTC holders. The number of wallets has been growing on the blockchain since the FTX bankruptcy. But analysts believe that the rate of strengthening of network activity is low, and therefore a rapid and large-scale rally should not be expected yet.
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🇧🇷 Brazilians can already pay with the state crypt
The oldest Brazilian bank — Banco de Brazil — recommends clients to pay taxes in the crypt. The new service became possible thanks to the partnership of the financial giant and the blockchain company Bitfy.
In addition to taxes, you can pay other government fees in cryptocurrencies through the bank — through a proprietary application using a QR code. Bitfy welcomes the decision of Banco de Brazil.
"This partnership will provide the practice of using digital assets with national coverage, as well as guarantees of security and reliability from Banco de Brazil," the company stressed.
In April 2021, this Brazilian state bank was the first in the country to provide institutional investors with access to the exchange-traded crypto fund ETF. And in December 2022, President Bolsanaru signed a bill on the phased implementation of the regulatory framework for digital currencies.
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👀 Traders have been selling ether at the most aggressive pace since May 2022
Last Friday, the ether was trading at $ 1,650, but on Saturday it collapsed to $ 1,509. We have witnessed the most aggressive reset since May 2022, CryproQuant analysts say.
✅ Just above $1,500, ether found the bottom and by Monday morning was trading at $1,517. The risk of a new sale remains.
✅ According to CoinGlass, on February 10, ETH positions of more than $26.6 million were liquidated on the futures market. We are talking about the cancellation of the maximum number of positions on the air from January 24.
As a result of a significant drop, the share of unprofitable Ethereum addresses increased to 41% yesterday. 57% of ether holders still remain in profit (according to IntoTheBlock).
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🤔 Institutional Interest in crypto Products has been growing since November 2022
Since the end of last year, products focused on digital currencies have been particularly popular with institutional investors, says Terrence Duffy, CEO of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
According to him, interest in bitcoin futures has sharply increased. Despite the turmoil experienced by the industry last year, large capital continues to enter digital assets. Although analysts after the collapse of FTX predicted the flight of institutions from the cryptosphere.
Duffy emphasizes that investor activity began to grow in November—December. Due to the lack of a regulatory framework for the crypto market in the United States, large capital is forced to switch to instruments related to digital currencies.
✅ According to CoinGlass, on February 13, the open interest in BTC futures is $10.335 billion. At the end of January, it reached $11.55 billion.
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Bloomberg: The crypto world is experiencing ChatGPT mania
Fans of artificial intelligence and crypts are dispersing a new topic: "intelligent tokens" are in incredible demand, soaring into the skies on the wave of hype around ChatGPT.
According to CoinGecko, AI tokens have shown impressive growth over the past week. For example, SingularityDAO and SingularityNET soared by 138% and 126%. On Tuesday, the ARPA token — the underlying asset of the confidential network — jumped by 10% in an hour amid rumors of a collaboration between developers and the Alibaba giant.
ChatGPT bot can do a lot: it writes sonnets in the style of Shakespeare, gives smart comments and forms investment portfolios. IT giant Microsoft has invested billions in OpenAI amid the popularity of AI projects. Google and others are right behind him.
"ChatGPT mania is gaining momentum, but as soon as investors cool off to the bot, AI tokens will go down rapidly," Bloomberg predicts.
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📝 Nansen: AI will become part of the crypto world
Artificial intelligence will successfully complement the projects of the blockchain industry, says Alex Svanevik, CEO of Nansen, who called the ChatGPT phenomenon "breakthrough".
AI needs to be integrated into all developments. This approach, according to the expert, will improve the quality of crypto applications.
Bing search engine is already working with ChatGPT. According to the same scheme, crypto companies can use other bots. Users of blockchain platforms need an effective system for issuing and analyzing data, and AI will perfectly cope with this task.
Artificial intelligence will help reduce the risk of bankruptcy of crypto companies. It will monitor their financial condition and signal the presence of problems.
Speaking about the prospects for 2023, CEO Nansen recalled the risks that even AI is not able to solve — this is an acute shortage of funds and the need to promptly adjust previous business models.
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🧑💻 Arthur Hayes is betting on the growth of bitcoin and altos in the first half of the year-2023
For the next six months, the ex-head of BitMEX predicts the growth of leading cryptocurrencies. The rally will be triggered by the Federal Reserve's revision of monetary policy towards easing.
The regulator may refrain from raising rates if the rate of inflation growth slows down. This period will be an ideal time to invest in the crypt, Hayes stressed. But in the second half of 2023, difficulties can be expected, and then investors will have to choose between the dollar and US Treasury bonds.
At the same time, you need to be prepared for the need to withdraw the lion's share of capital from risky assets at any time — as soon as macroeconomic factors begin to put pressure on the IT sector, Hayes sums up.
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Contrary to the trend: the French crypto company is increasing the number of staff
While some market participants are massively cutting employees, complaining about the drop in income caused by the decline in the value of cryptocurrencies, others are resolutely expanding their staff.
French Flowdesk reports an increase in the number of staff by more than 2 times.
This team has developed an analytical platform for crypto traders.
At the end of last year, 60 people worked at Flowdesk, but soon there will be 140, says team leader Guillem Chaumont. The company plans to hire specialists of various profiles — from lawyers to developers.
Flowdesk is trying to gain a foothold in the Asian market and get a license in Singapore.
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Will Abkhazia become a "digital mini-Switzerland" for Russia?
Infrastructure for cross-border payments in digital currencies can be created in Abkhazia, Vedomosti writes. Alexander Brazhnikov, Vice President of the Russian Association of Crypto Industry and Blockchain (RAKIB), told the publication about this project.
According to him, Abkhazia will launch its own blockchain by the end of this year. It will become the basis for creating a platform for international settlements, stablecoins, NFT and digital financial assets.
The republic can turn into a "digital mini-Switzerland for Russia and its friendly countries," Alexander Brazhnikov noted.
In the meantime, the parties are discussing options for a regulatory framework for the project.
But skeptics doubt the realism of the idea, because Abkhazia is not recognized by many countries. Therefore, IT companies will massively refuse offers to work in such a crypto hub.
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Ether can count on support in the range from 1600 to 1650 dollars
ETH is getting cheaper today in the company with bitcoin. In 24 hours, the leading altcoin retreated by almost 3% to $ 1,631, and its capitalization today is $ 199.67 billion.
The pressure is increasing, but the ether is in a strong support zone, Ali Martinez believes. According to the analyst, this zone is formed in the range from 1600 to 1650 dollars.
Here 1.94 million addresses have purchased about 8 million ETH. It is these investors who are now trying to prevent a more significant drawdown of the altcoin. Martinez hopes that the support will work, and the ether will not fall below $ 1,600.
According to IntoTheBlock, thanks to the successful January, the share of profitable wallets in the Ethereum network has increased to 62%. 35% of ETH investors are now at a loss.
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🇬🇪 Georgia has entered the TOP 10 in terms of the number of new cryptomats
Georgia holds the first place in the rating of bitcoin ATM installation rates among the post-Soviet countries. This is indicated by the data of CoinATMRadar.
Today there are 111 cryptocurrency terminals operating in the republic — in Tbilisi, Rustavi, Batumi, Kutaisi and Zugdidi. In January, Georgia's crypto park was replenished with 3 new cryptomats.
There are a total of 38,353 cryptomats operating in the world.
22 and 11 devices were installed in Australia and the USA in January.
Among the best in terms of launch rates are Canada (+11), Germany (+8), Great Britain (+5), Romania (+3), Slovakia (+3) and France (+3).
✅ Russia ranks 17th with 54 terminals for operations with digital currencies.
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Is the January bitcoin rally the result of speculation, not accumulation?
Curiously, last month, cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges left spot trading platforms far behind in terms of performance, according to CryptoCompare researchers.
✅ The trading volume of instruments focused on cryptocurrencies soared by 76.1% in January and reached $2.04 trillion. This is the maximum since January 2021, when this figure increased by 114%.
In December 2022, the share of the crypto derivatives market in the total turnover in the cryptosphere was 68%, and now it has reached 70.3%.
The first and second places were taken by Binance and ByBit exchanges with trading volumes of $1.26 trillion and $301 billion.
According to CryptoCompare, the rally of bitcoin and ether is most likely the result of speculation with derivatives, and not an accumulation strategy.
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SOPR at its maximum since November 2021: fasten your seat belts?
The WhaleMap team records the rise of the SOPR index: the indicator showing the effectiveness of bitcoin sales has reached the highest level since November 2021. In those days, BTC was trading at $69,000.
When SOPR exceeds 1, most bitcoin sales transactions are profitable. If the index is below 1, sales are mostly at a loss.
✅ Analysts see a bullish signal in the SOPR jump above 1. When the implementation of cryptocurrencies becomes profitable, traders reduce sales and take a wait-and-see attitude.
✅ Small sales volumes will push bitcoin up. This behavior was demonstrated by investors in previous bullish periods, analysts explain.
But when the SOPR is below 1, sales usually become massive, as traders in a panic dump the asset, fearing a further fall in price.
@finsignal
Millions of dollars have already been collected in the crypt to help the victims in Turkey
Public organizations have raised substantial sums in cryptocurrencies for victims of a series of powerful earthquakes in Turkey.
The leader was Ahbap, a non—profit foundation of Turkish musician Haluk Levent, which raised about $2 million in AVAX and BNB live in less than a day. The Paribu platform is also raising funds to eliminate the consequences of the disaster.
Haluk Levent noted that the Turkish Financial Crimes Investigation Council (MASAK) did not block the acceptance of donations to crypto addresses. The regulator does not apply sanctions, despite the ban on operations in the crypt, introduced by the Central Bank in 2021.
The most popular donation tool was altcoin AVAX (55.56% of the total), and its developers — Avalanche Foundation — will allocate $ 1 million. More than 42% of donations came in stablecoins.
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👮♀️ Interpol has reached the metaverse
The International Criminal Police is ready to take control of the activity of users of the Metaverse worlds.
According to Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock, criminal communities are actively moving into the online space, where they use technological advances to implement criminal schemes and cover their tracks.
In October 2022, Interpol opened an office in the metaverse and announced measures to improve the quality of interaction between law enforcement agencies.
Jurgen Stock believes that an effective system of responding to new challenges is needed today.
It's time to modernize the legal framework and introduce a classification of crimes committed in projects using Web3 technologies. Special attention should be paid to countering cyber attacks, combating money laundering and data theft.
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What awaits Cardano in February?
In 2022, ADA lost 82% of its value, but at the beginning of 2023 it soared by 45%, analysts at Santiment note.
Whale activity increased in January and February. Today, on average, about 1,700 transactions in the amount of $100,000 or more are carried out per day. For comparison, in the first days of January, there were no more than 300 such operations per day.
✅ Whales have been buying Cardano since November — after the collapse of FTX. During this time, addresses with a balance of 10,000 to 10 million coins have accumulated 659.53 million ADA for $235.5 million.
But by mid-February, network activity had weakened. In November-December, more than 85,000 addresses participated in transactions every day, and today — 62,000.
According to Santiment, Cardano is unlikely to enter the turbulence phase in the near future. Most likely, trading in a narrow range will continue — if the whales do not enter the arena again.
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🇺🇸 California Consumers Require Licensing of Crypto Exchanges
The California Consumer Federation (CFC) has developed a bill on licensing cryptocurrency exchanges to ensure transparency of the industry and protect investors.
The document has been submitted to the State Assembly for consideration. The law on digital financial assets has been sent to the local parliament by Congressman Timothy Grayson. In addition to licensing the crypto business, it creates conditions for the development of fintech and the introduction of innovations. Special attention is paid to the fight against fraud.
This is the second attempt to adopt a law on licensing the crypto sector. The first attempt is dated 2022, but California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed that bill. If all procedures are now carried out in a regular manner, the law will come into force on January 1, 2025.
The Federation of Consumers believes that the Assembly will consider this document in April.
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Robert Kiyosaki: it's time to buy bitcoin, because "everything will collapse"
The author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" believes that the world economy is about to collapse.
According to the financier's forecast, all key assets, including precious metals and bitcoin, will fall in price.
But this is not a cause for concern, Kiyosaki is sure. You just need to prepare in advance for shocks and buy cryptocurrency at comfortable prices. It's time to get rid of dollars, and the money should be invested in BTC, gold and silver.
The financier says he will buy cryptocurrencies and precious metals.
Kiyosaki has been voicing such forecasts for several years. So, in October, he said that the entire world economy would collapse due to the Fed's hard course. And a little earlier he claimed that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would destroy most digital currencies.
Do you believe in Kiyosaki's predictions? Vote: "Yes" — 👍, "No" — 😢
@finsignal
Will Abkhazia become a "digital mini-Switzerland" for Russia?
Infrastructure for cross-border payments in digital currencies can be created in Abkhazia, Vedomosti writes. Alexander Brazhnikov, Vice President of the Russian Association of Crypto Industry and Blockchain (RAKIB), told the publication about this project.
According to him, Abkhazia will launch its own blockchain by the end of this year. It will become the basis for creating a platform for international settlements, stablecoins, NFT and digital financial assets.
The republic can turn into a "digital mini-Switzerland for Russia and its friendly countries," Alexander Brazhnikov noted.
In the meantime, the parties are discussing options for a regulatory framework for the project.
But skeptics doubt the realism of the idea, because Abkhazia is not recognized by many countries. Therefore, IT companies will massively refuse offers to work in such a crypto hub.
@finsignal
🏃 Tron is in the AI fairway of IT giants
The Tron ecosystem actively supports projects based on artificial intelligence. Justin Sun's team has allocated more than $100 million to developers of AI applications on the Tron network.
Startups that create decentralized AI-based human mind simulation services can count on generous funding. The success benchmark is the ChatGPT bot created by OpenAI.
Tron pays special attention to applications for payments, data management, market analytics and content creation.
According to Justin Sun, artificial intelligence needs to be integrated into smart contracts in order to use the power of the blockchain more efficiently.
Despite the rise of AI tokens, experts remind investors to be careful. At any moment, these assets can collapse as soon as the pumping is replaced by a large-scale sale.
@finsignal
Dependence on the stock market did not allow bitcoin to stay above $23,000
The BTC drawdown at the end of this week is the result of an increased correlation between the first cryptocurrency and the US stock market.
According to Santiment, since the beginning of February, the S&P 500 index has rolled back by 1%, and bitcoin's losses over the same time amounted to 8.7%. BTC has fallen to $21,857 today, and there are risks of a stronger pullback during the American session.
Analysts see the correlation of BTC and US stock indices as a problem for the first cryptocurrency. As long as the dependence on technology sector stocks does not weaken, the rally will not resume. Or you will have to wait for IT companies to return to plus.
According to WhaleMap estimates, the nearest bitcoin support zone has formed at $20,850. Lower whale support zones are at $19,300 and $16,800.
🔍 The capitalization of stablecoins is decreasing. What is the reason?
Despite the aggressive January and the strong growth of bitcoin and altos, the total capitalization of "stable coins" has decreased. But the trading volume of stablecoins soared by 67%, according to the CryptoRank report.
✅ The total supply of "stable coins" has decreased in 30 days and is less than $140 billion. As of February 10 — $137.99 billion.
After a difficult 2022, Tether (USDT) is once again strengthening its position — the undisputed leader among fiat-linked currencies. Its capitalization exceeds $68.18 billion.
✅ The share of the other leading stablecoins (USDC and BUSD) decreased markedly over the month — to $41.57 billion and $16.18 billion, respectively.
The reduction in the capitalization of stablecoins is a direct result of the redistribution of capital in favor of bitcoin and altos and the subsequent weakening of the activity of traders.
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🌡 Traders are wary of Bitcoin falling below $22K
Following the results of the January rally, bitcoin failed to reach the $ 25,000 milestone, and in February, the first cryptocurrency began to lose ground, and today it retreated below the psychological mark of $ 22,000.
During Asian trading, BTC fell to $21,888, and traders reacted with alarm to the pullback. The index of "crypto Fear and greed" (Crypto Fear & Greed Index) fell to 48. This is the minimum value since January 13.
Nevertheless, the indicator remains in the "neutral zone", therefore, it is too early to talk about panic. Diving into the "fear zone" is possible when bitcoin falls below $21,000.
✅ Note that yesterday Crypto Fear & Greed Index was in the "greed zone". But the mood of investors was spoiled by the insistence of the SEC in the fight against staking, and Asia supported the bearish trend in the morning and capital began to leave the crypto world.
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🤔 Ether can count on support in the range from $1,600 to $1,650
ETH is getting cheaper today in the company with bitcoin. In 24 hours, the leading altcoin retreated by almost 3% to $ 1,631, and its capitalization today is $199.67 billion.
The pressure is increasing, but the ether is in the zone of strong support, Ali Martinez believes. According to the analyst's estimates, this zone is formed in the range from $ 1,600 to $ 1,650.
Here 1.94 million addresses have purchased about 8 million ETH. It is these investors who are now trying to prevent a more significant drawdown of the altcoin. Martinez hopes that the support will work, and the ether will not sink below $ 1,600.
According to IntoTheBlock, thanks to the successful January, the share of profitable wallets in the Ethereum network has increased to 62%. 35% of ETH investors are now at a loss.
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The Cardano network hosted the largest whale swim since May
In early January, Cardano (ADA) was trading at $0.308, and a month later it reached $0.396 — the highest since November 2022. Analysts at Santiment associate the ADA rally with another whale swim. It has become the largest since May last year.
Since the end of December, Cardano's capitalization has increased by 53% to $13.724 billion.
The number of transactions in the amount of $100,000 or more has reached a maximum in nine months. Purchases were made by addresses with a balance of 1 million to 100 million ADA. At the beginning of 2023, 36 more wallets with such a volume of cryptocurrency appeared on the network. Now the number of whale addresses on the blockchain has reached 2,844.
✅ It is necessary to be prepared for the fact that large Cardano holders can start resetting at any time. Sales will start as soon as ADA reaches a local peak.
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Bitcoin may adjust up to 70% due to the recession in the US
Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market have grown strongly since the beginning of 2023, adding more than 40%. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at a price of $22,789 with a market capitalization of $439 billion.
However, Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said cryptocurrencies could face the first real recession, which could lead to lower asset prices and increased volatility.
It was during the last financial crash in 2008 that bitcoin was born. Although the very premise of bitcoin's existence is to serve as an alternative to the fiat system, it still remains an asset class with high volatility.
Since bitcoin is likely to experience its first major financial recession this year, the question is how many more losses are to come before a new growth cycle begins.
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‼️ On February 8, #Binance will suspend bank transfers in US dollars for "a couple of weeks"
In fact, bank withdrawals in #USD are used by only 0.1% of active monthly users of the exchange.
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What to expect from the broadcast in February
After a breakout January, ETH was stuck at $1,646. The first days of February brought the largest altcoin a course correction. There is a possibility that the last month of winter will not be the most successful for the coin.
Ether could not withstand the pressure around $1,680, where a strong resistance zone was formed.
The chances of a breakthrough will appear only if altcoin manages to avoid a significant drop in the coming days and ETH can consolidate and approach the psychological mark of $ 1,680, and then hold positions at this level.
✅ The nearest strong support zone is at $1,500. If it does not work, the ether may fall to $1,352.
✅ According to TradingView, the relative strength index (RSI) indicates an overbought asset, which means a high probability of an early reset of the cryptocurrency.
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