👨💻Big FTX Update
FTX repayments are coming and it’s time to finally make a big update. I know a lot of you are wondering whether you should wait till the official repayments or sell your claim now? When can we expect repayments realistically? How much to expect?What potential problems can we face? Etc.
Let’s discuss below:
▪️When can you expect repayments?
For claims < $50k one time payment: Jan ’25 - March ’25
For claims > $50k multiple payments: Q1-Q4 ’25
FTX bankruptcy plan was approved October 8th -> effective date will be set within 90 days from October 8th -> repayments will be made within 60 days from effective date.
So, realistically as early as January ’25. Worst case scenario - March ’25.
▪️How much can you expect?
For claims < $50k - around 118%* of claim value. One time payment.
For claims > $50k - up to 142%* of claim value. Multiple payments throughout 2025.
*claim value is calculated at the time of the bankruptcy i.e. November 2022.
▪️How will you get your repayment?
Most likely wire (bank) transfer. This might be a serious problem if you don’t have a bank account or don’t want your bank to know about your crypto money. You might need to explain the source of those funds (how/when did you get them etc) and possibly face tax consequences.
Ideally, you want to get repayments in stablecoins (USDC, USDT) to avoid bank questions and taxes. Unfortunately, this is still not decided. Time is running out and they (FTX) need to find a distribution partner asap. Stay tuned and hope for the best. However, if you don’t want to deal with uncertainties and risks - your best bet is to sell your claim for USDC now before the official repayments so you can deploy this money right into the market. Claim prices are the highest they ever been and for some people this may be the perfect option. You can find out how much you can get for your claim here. Let’s discuss whether you should consider selling your claim below.
▪️Should you sell your claim now or wait until official repayments?
Not financial/legal advice, DYOR.
▫️This is really something you should decide yourself. In my opinion, for claims under $50k - probably just wait until official payment. You will get it in 1 time payment. Unless of course you need that money right now and/or have a clear plan on how to use it to frontrun others who will most likely deploy money right back into crypto as soon as they receive it.
▫️For claims above $50k - it’s a tricky situation. You can easily get well over 100% for a large claim now. For 20-30% you are missing (remember official repayments for claims over $50k is up to 142%) you are not sacrificing up to another year of waiting till you get your whole repayment back. Considering crypto might easily pump 20-30%+ in a week, then selling a claim now and getting that liquidity before everyone else might be worth it.
If you decide to sell your claim or wondering how much can you get for it now, I recommend checking out FTX Creditor. I sold my claim (link to post) earlier this year and can absolutely vouch for them. Quick and smooth experience (can sell your claim within 24-48h, paid in USDC directly to your crypto wallet of choice).
Fill in the form to receive a quote on your claim. They are buying claims under $50k till 19th of October (4 days left). Larger claims till November. Use this link to get a better (best) quote:
👉 https://www.ftxcreditor.com/sell_claim?afmc=0007G8G3
🔔Large amounts of crypto seized by chinese police from chinese ponzi scheme "Plus token" in 2019 began moving few hours ago. They have around $2 Billion in ETH that can be potentially transferred.
This doesn't mean they selling it (at least for now) but pay attention if they start deposit into exchanges in the coming days.
https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1821136313640481006
💭Current market thoughts | Black Monday
A lot of bad stuff happening at the same time:
- Middle east war tensions (Israel - Iran)
- Japan's market crash (YEN carry unwind), worst dump since 1987
- Stock market crash around the world: USA, Asia - Taiwan's worst day in 57 years etc.
- USA election, interest rates etc
- Biggest crypto shops and market makers (Jump, Genesis) liquidating hundreds of millions of their assets in ETH, SOL etc
- MtGox and Grayscale supply pressure
Really can't think of a worse scenario than what we have now. And its all happening simultaneously. In moments like this - its important not to lose hope and try not to overtrade / make big mistakes. Obviously, things will get back to normal sooner or later. Market had to deal with some bogeyman from the past, especially MtGox, Grayscale, governments selling (Germany, Usa). Once bad actors are out and supply overhang is absorbed - its going to be a smoother ride upwards. More than a billion $ was liquidated in the last 24h. These type of black swan events are pretty rare. Last ones we had were: FTX collapse November '22, massive nuke in May '21, covid-dump in March '20. Market always recovers after, and those who were brave enough to buy made handsome profits.
I started buying already yesterday (was a bit too early but anyway). Also set some more bids lower before bed and to be honest didn't think we would fill them and fill them so fast. Woke up completely underwater. This sucks but this is not the end of the world. Years of experience taught me to spread bids and never go above x1 of account value (no liquidation price). So, its time to be patient and wait for the recovery now.
I bought mostly SOL, BTC, ETH and some other alts (NEAR, SEI, AVAX etc).
👨💻Germany is finally out of coins to sell.
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany
👨💻Government of Germany has been selling its confiscated BTC for a while already. Initially they had around $3B worth of BTC.
Today was the largest outflow so far, almost $1 billion was sent to exchanges (presumably to sell). They are sending it across several major exchanges such as Kraken, Bitstamp, Coinbase etc. Now, the good news is they only have half left (~50%). Another $1.4B
Given the immense sell pressure we are still holding relatively ok. If today daily candle closes green - that would be a nice sign of absorption.
Once we clear this supply overhang - we can stabilize.
▫️Link to Arkham dashboard where you can check out how much BTC Germany still has:
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany
$SOL
Started adding some $SOL on spot on this retest. Betting on this triangle fuckery pattern.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tSgMyEST/
$ETH
After taking some profits in $3900s, I'm looking to add back (+more) at the levels below.
With impending (inevitable) ETF coming, I see no reason not to add (yes, I am retarded).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LpQZQ6UI/
$ETH
Target (magnet) reached ✅
If you followed - makes sense to shave some partial profit to pay yourself! 🤝
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zbjU879h/
$BTC | [Update]
En route to $69k.
Bullish Chuvashov fork after a range low fakeout (spring) is playing out.
Overall market is bouncing off nicely, I'm still in all my spot positions on altcoins I've been buying/holding before. Some of the positions are quite disappointing but I still think we are in a bull market and we see higher prices this year. Obviously this cycle things are a bit different and its objectively more difficult to move/pump market at this level capitalization. A constant stream of new projects with insanely high FDV launching almost everyday is not helping either. Market is getting really diluted and I think the only solution to this problem is an influx of new money/participants (imo we haven't seen it yet).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Xedfv7s/
👨💻 Important news and updates for this multi-airdrop play
▪️Zerolend ($ZERO) token confirmed - TGE 6th of May (17% of total supply as an airdrop for us).
More info: https://twitter.com/zerolendxyz/status/1784857103435276525
▪️Renzo protocol ($REZ) airdrop claim and listing tomorrow - 30th of April 12:00 UTC (Binance, Kucoin etc). There will be a season 2 of (re)staking so makes sense to keep your deposit.
Claim here: https://claim.renzoprotocol.com/
▪️Linea Surge campaign officially starts tomorrow - 30th of April. Get your “early badge” boost by registering with the invite link below. Everyone has to register with an invite link in order to start earning LXP-L points.
👉https://referrals.linea.build/?refCode=UNaGEnBGPI
👨💻Happy to announce I finally sold my FTX claim.
After some consideration, I've decided I no longer want to keep up with all the tiresome drama and countless updates regarding bankruptcy process. Huge weight off my shoulders.
Why did I do this and should you consider selling it?
+ a bonus gift for you at the end👇
The current rates for claims are pretty high (80-90%+ depending on the size of your claim and few other factors). I simply think the opportunity cost is not worth waiting any longer. We're in the middle of the bull market and I'd rather deploy this capital than watch it slowly being eroded by inflation and missed opportunities. Risk to reward is pretty great here. Considering I almost wrote off this loss a while ago - essentially I'm getting a $1 for $0.10-20 now. Much needed liquidity and less stress to worry about.
Now, if you ask me whether you should sell your claim or not - this is something you should carefully think about yourself. Keep in mind that eventually you will be refunded 100% (or close) in $ terms (petition day prices - 11 Nov 2022).
Situation is definitely different for everyone. The decision to sell my claim was a no brainer for me since most of my account consisted of stables ($) at the time of bankruptcy. For me $1 = $1, so I would've only received around 10% extra.
It is believed that the first payments go out later this year (Nov?) and probably be partial. The rest of the payout will take several months more.
I've received a really decent quote by https://twitter.com/ftxcreditor_com and after careful comparison with other brokers decided to sell to them. They offer the best selling experience. Whole process takes 24-48h from the time you upload your application. They pay you live on the call (USDC directly to you). Process itself is pretty easy and intuitive.
Huge thanks to https://twitter.com/LouisOrigny for professionalism and https://twitter.com/sunil_trades for tips! Give them both a follow to stay up to date with FTX.
Extra 0.5% kickback to your claim
🎁As a bonus to my followers, you can get an extra 0.5% to your claim. I will split my 1% reward with you. Use this ref link and DM me after you sell your claim to receive your bonus:
👉https://ftxcreditor.com/sell_claim?afmc=0007G8G3
👨💻Friendly reminder today is the last day to qualify for “early badge” for Linea Surge campaign (it starts tomorrow 17th of April).
▫️Check out this post about (re)staking ETH for airdrops and yield 👉 (click)
▫️In short, idea is to stake ETH (on Linea chain) on Renzo -> restake it on Zerolend.
Use my link to get a bonus 20% points: https://airdrop.zerolend.xyz/#/?invite=fP8AjTrlUP6j
$DAO
Last cycle we printed a lot of money off of Dao Maker IDOs, it was a great tool for someone with a small portfolio to start investing and get access to good deals. If you believe IDOs are something you want to participate in again - chart looks decent TA wise to enter. You can stake your tokens to participate in raised on https://twitter.com/daomaker
https://www.tradingview.com/x/84EO00qU/
$BTC
We have wiped OI of this whole 2 month range. Altcoins OI took even nastier hit.
Excessive leverage was completely cleared out of the system. The path of least resistance is up.
🚨Hong-Kong spot ETF approved ($BTC, $ETH)
https://x.com/TheBlock__/status/1779758153770369226
$BTC
We now have a fresh CME gap to the north. Usually all gaps are filled after.
Also, gaps aside these type of high volatility rapid nukes tend to retrace almost all the way, so keep holding your coins!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q4WTrTaR/
$SOL | Update
Around +30% on spot.
Makes sense to shave some profits if you followed.
Thanks for playing 🤝
💭We are still in a bear market (kind of). Bull has yet to start!
Let me explain 👇
This might be an unpopular opinion but few days ago I tweeted that we can still be in a bear market. The reason why this cycle feels so weird and empty is because ETF was introduced earlier than market was ready and kinda speedran the whole thing and we made a new (albeit small) marginal ATH. This led people turn bullish on everything else as well. On top of that we had a memecoin mania that also played with everyone. This is just my opinion but we made a new ATH way before we suppose to. See, historically BTC only was making new high after the halving (usually up to 6 months or more). This time we made new high before halving and failed to continue despite ETF flows. Majority of altcoins (with exception of few newer memecoins) never entered a bullish phase, some are retesting or even making new lows last week, suggesting we might still be in an accumulation. Weak price action across the board (including BTC) only confirms it.
Therefore, I think Q3 of this year has a nice chance of forming a real bottom and we see an expansion in Q4. We also have some solid fundamentals going into autumn. Lets review some positive signs (+):
▫️FTX might finally repay its victims around $15B by the end of this year (+)
▫️ETH ETF is coming quite soon (+)
▫️US elections, rate cuts, seasonality (+)
▫️German government will soon run out of BTC to sell (+)
Some negative factors:
▫️MtGox repayments. It can really take a while with this one but also it means the impact on the market will be spread out much smoother (-)
▫️Grayscale trust (both ETH and BTC), they still have a lot to sell but hopefully they will be more careful with execution (-)
Overall I think we are quite ok and headed into a bullish season finally. Definitively not the time to give up! Keep your morale up!
https://x.com/edwardmorra_btc/status/1809314690553770348
$ETH
Sticking to my plan. Added back more ETH.
ETF pump candle fully retraced. Send it!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/D1Qf1B5x/
$SOL
Triangle fuckery typical for crypto.
Stop out buyers -> trap sellers -> back inside the formation.
Lets see how it plays out, not setting any limit orders yet.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tc009AGF/
$BTC
Looking to bid this bullish level just below $63k. Bulls - rejoice!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RCSWXlAg/
$SOL
From calling for a pullback off of $180 to filling some longs in $125-135 we now have arrived at the first resistance 🤝
Fixing some at least partial profits after a 30% bounce is advisable (but still optional).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sKjIeIEm/
$BTC
This reclaim is important.
We don't want to see it closing back below $58k again.
This correction has really taken too long already. Send it!
I was slowly buying some coins on spot (with money I got from selling my FTX claim) last several days (BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, NEAR, DOGE and other alts), some of the entries are still underwater, so hopefully we see a proper recovery across the board. Will update the charts later.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zVvKwOxb/
👨💻Received some DMs from you guys, most of them are similar so let’s go through most common ones together 👇
1) What affects % that you can sell your FTX account for?
First of all, the most important factor is the size of your account. The bigger your account - the higher % you can sell it for. Roughly speaking, accounts $300k-400k go for 85%, for bigger accounts close to $1M or higher you can get 90% or more. I don’t know much about smaller accounts ($100k or less) but I’d assume it’s below 80%. There are also other minor factors affecting %: whether you successfully withdrew any money from FTX prior to bankruptcy, status of your assets etc.
Administrative and legal expenses of buying $10k, $100k or $1M accounts are the same, so that’s why smaller ones cost less.
2) How fast whole process of selling your FTX claim usually is? Around 24-48h but let me break it down to you step by step:
▪️First, fill out the application form using my link (gives you additional +0.5%, I will share my reward with you):
https://ftxcreditor.com/sell_claim?afmc=0007G8G3
Filling it out shouldn’t be difficult, you already have all the information in your emails from FTX or your account. Last questions in the form are optional (but will speed up the process).
▪️After filling it out, they should get back to you via email with the exact $ amount they ready to buy your account for. If you agree with it - you will have to book a call with them (using Calendly). The call itself will be in Zoom over video (+share screen). Conversation will be in English but you free to invite a translator with you if you need it (or they can provide with a translator - just ask them over the email in advance). Also, before the call you will have to complete a KYC (passport, selfie, proof of residence), pretty standard to what you usually can find on other crypto platforms.
▪️During the call they will first ask you few simple questions and ask to forward them few emails. This will be performed over share screen option in Zoom. At the end of the call they will ask to change password and sign the agreement of transfer document (in docusign). At the same time they will send you USDC to the address you want (can be exchange or metamask or whatever). Call should be done in 30-45 min, I’ve managed to finish in 20.
3) ▫️What happens if I decide to do nothing? If you are not happy with the $ they offer - no need to do anything, just don’t reply to their email.
▫️What happens if I decide not to sell my FTX account? Eventually you will be refunded by the official FTX liquidators. It is estimated that first payouts start in November of this year. Most likely you will get 50%+ as a first payment, with the rest being paid out later (3-12 months or more). You will be refunded 100% (or more but it can and will change many times as it usually the case, follow bankruptcy process closely for updates) in dollar terms at petition prices (11 Nov 2022 prices). If you had crypto - it will be based on prices we had 11 of November. If you had stables (USDT, USDC), then $1=$1.
4) I have small account (around or less than $10k), is it even worth trying to sell it?
If you have smaller account (less than 10k) you may be categorized as a Convenience Class claim. Effectively, you're likely to get a final one-off payment in 2024 and your claim will be considered settled, i.e., no further distributions.
Also, would like to add something from my side: if you decide to sell your claim - you should have a clear plan on how you going to use/deploy that money. I have decided for myself that during these 6-7 months (until first payouts in November) I would find a much better use for my money being actively in the market. For instance, buying a basket of BTC and a handful of good alts (ETH, SOL, AVAX, NEAR and others) on spot now can be an actionable idea. Partial could be lent out or staked as a diversification. It all depends on your trading/investing style and appetite for risk.
Think these were the most common questions! Best of luck everyone!
👨💻Couple of updates:
First of all, they have postponed the start of the “The Surge” campaign for now. Officially it starts 22 or 23 of April, so there is still time to get “early badge” multiplier (x1.5 points). And second of all, everyone has to register on Surge campaign in order to collect LXP-L points - later we redeem these for tokens (airdrop).
▫️To register you need an invite code: VUiKbLDB9s
▫️Or use the link: 👉 https://referrals.linea.build/?refCode=VUiKbLDB9s
To sum it up: go and register on Surge (use the invite code above^), stake at least 0.1 ETH (for example on Renzo) + you can use other protocols such as Zerolend on top of that. Farm the points - get airdrop later!
👨💻Solana airdrop list update
It’s time to update this airdrop list I posted in December of last year. Almost all projects either already launched a token or confirmed it.
▫️Kamino: token confirmed ☑️(Allocation: link)
▫️Tensor airdrop completed ✅ (Claim: link)
▫️Parcl airdrop completed ✅ (Claim: link)
The rest of the projects: Marginfi, Drift, Zeta markets already confirmed their token launch as well (coming later this month).
I’ve just claimed my Parcl airdrop (currently trading at around $0.6). Thanks for free money!
Congratulations to everyone who followed me and made some 💸! 🤝
$AXL
Remember we bought AXL as lagging Coinlist play in last December?
It was listed on Binance after that and since then was down only, so a good place to pick it up if you haven’t before. TA + FA align.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QB0yAWPh/
$TON
Almost recovered from the dump. And is number 9 coin on coinmarketcap.
Don't fade TON ecosystem
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gGPdRvdP/
👨💻$ETH (re)staking + Linea + Zerolend airdrop play.
Was thinking where do I park all $ETH I have accumulated so far and came up with this simple and obvious play.
▫️Idea is to stake ETH on Linea chain onto Renzo protocol (ezETH) and then retake that into Zerolend protocol to get even more points (Zerolend points + Renzo points + EigenLayer + Linea points for the airdrops).
Let’s break it down: 👇
▪️ Withdraw your ETH from exchange to your wallet (Metamask, Rabby etc)
-If you using Bybit you can directly withdraw via Linea chain
-If you using Binance you can withdraw via Arbitrum or Optimism and use Rhino https://twitter.com/rhinofi (or any other bridge) to bridge to Linea.
▪️ Restake your ETH (Linea) to ezETH on Renzo protocol (https://twitter.com/RenzoProtocol)
▪️ Stake ezETH on Zerolend to get:
2x $ZERO airdrop points | 2-6x ezPoints | 1-3x EigenLayer points | 1x Linea points
Use my link to get 20% additional bonus to your points:
👉https://airdrop.zerolend.xyz/#/?invite=fP8AjTrlUP6j
▫️With this strategy you will earn Linea “Surge” campaign points. Later it will be redeemed for the airdrop. More details about this campaign can be found here: click.
If you stake before 17 of April you get “Early badge” (bonus for points) so consider doing it as soon as possible. Still some time left.
▫️Who should participate in this campaign?
If you (like me) hold some ETH and don’t know where to put to get some extra yield - this is a great solution. If you plan on holding ETH - why not (re)stake it to get some airdrops? Seems like a no-brainer move to me.
Always double check what you are doing (transfers, bridge, chain etc). If you are not sure - do a test transaction first. DYOR!