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The Bitcoin Halving is approaching, and BTC demand has dropped.
Let's look into the reasons for this.
Traders in the perpetual futures market are locking in gains amid increased volatility and geopolitical concerns.
Additionally, there is a noticeable slowdown in Bitcoin acquisition by large holders and ETFs, likely due to market uncertainties and upcoming structural changes from the halving.
However, the recent sell-off has reset traders’ unrealized profits, historically a signal of a potential market bottom in bull cycles.
Market participants seem to be recalibrating their positions, leading to a decrease in immediate demand and price stabilization.
See our weekly crypto report for more.
Weekly Report | @cryptoquant_official
Miners Reduce Selling Pressure Ahead of Halving
“On average over the last month, around 374 BTC were sent daily to spot exchanges, a value well below the 1388 BTC registered in February.” – Link
By caueconomy | @cryptoquant_official
Derivative Uncertainty
“If the price breaks below $60,000, we might witness a decline to $52,000 before a subsequent rise.” – Link
By ShivenMoodley | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin in Accumulation Phase Ahead of Halving
Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges have reached their highest level since January 2023, suggesting a major phase of accumulation. Alongside this, market metrics indicate a recent cool-off following a 10% price drop last week, pointing to potential for upcoming price increases.
CryptoOnchain highlights that the increase in Bitcoin withdrawals might be in preparation for the expected halving on April 20, often linked with anticipatory holding for price gains.
Burak Kesmeci notes a decrease in open interest on derivatives exchanges from $18 billion to $14.2 billion, indicating less leveraged trading and possibly leading to market stabilization.
CoinLupin points out that Bitcoin is now in the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) support zone, offering a potential buying opportunity as short-term holders start to sell, historically preceding price rises.
Live Dashboard | @cryptoquant_official
Pre-Halving Price Fluctuations
“It's essential to recognize that before each halving cycle, there's typically a price collapse, a pattern we've highlighted numerous times in the past.” – Link
By Tarekonchain | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin Price Above STH Whales' Realized Price
“This indicates strong demand for Bitcoin, while also highlighting the greater returns of long-term investment.” – Link
By tugbachain | @cryptoquant_official
Back to December 2020
“It seems there is room for a more significant rise in this cycle as liquidity expands with the increasing greed of STHs and experienced investors gradually realizing their profits.” – Link
By Gustavo Faria | @cryptoquant_official
The market is still hot, could more price correction come to Bitcoin before a new ATH?
“It's a dangerous price region for leveraged traders and if pressured could trigger a deeper correction breaking the current price structure.” – Link
By G a a h | @cryptoquant_official
The peak of a bull market is determined by the influx of new investors
“Even conservatively, we can expect that the market has not yet reached its peak, and since we can now expect additional inflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, we could see a sharp further rise in Bitcoin in 2024.” – Link
By Crypto Dan | @cryptoquant_official
Discover how Layer 2 solutions are making Bitcoin faster and ready for the future.
Dan Held breaks it all down for us. If you're curious about the next big thing in crypto, this one's for you.
You can watch the full episode on YouTube now.
Watch Now | @cryptoquant_official
Analyzing Ethereum's Futures market Sentiment: Is A Renewed Bullish Surge Coming?
“Considering these metrics, the market appears poised for another significant move in the mid-term, with the potential for long positions to be reinstated in the perpetual market. This suggests a favourable outlook for Ethereum's price trajectory” – Link
By ShayanBTC | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin Halving is set to challenge miners, cutting rewards to 3.125 BTC. As revenues hit record highs and competition intensifies, staying profitable demands innovation.
Revenue vs. Hashprice: Miners are seeing daily revenues peak, yet hashprice has fallen 30% since the last halving, decreasing earnings per hash.
Transaction fees have also dropped significantly, adding pressure on profitability as the halving draws near.
The competition is fiercer, with the Bitcoin network's hashrate climbing, showing more miners are in the race for the same rewards.
In response, some miners have increased their BTC sales, with daily sales to OTC desks reaching 1.6K Bitcoin in late March, the highest since August 2023.
As the halving approaches, adapting to reduced revenues and heightened competition is crucial. Miners' success will hinge on their ability to innovate and optimize operations. This period may lead to a mining landscape that favors consolidation and sustainable energy solutions.
⬇️ Explore our dashboard for more insights.
Weekly Crypto Report | @cryptoquant_official
Tracking Bitcoin All Exchanges Netflow 365 SMA can Help us Understand the Trend
“As of now, the 365SMA is around -900, which shows us that the bulls are very strong.” – Link
By burakkesmeci | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin, Digesting Profit Realization Volume
“Currently, Bitcoin has reached the peak of the 2021 bull market and is digesting profit realization volume.” – Link
By Crypto Dan | @cryptoquant_official
Analyzing Bitcoin's Futures Market Sentiment: Is A Renewed Surge On The Horizon?
“Such a development can be interpreted as positive in the long term, as it alleviates the pressure for further liquidations and fosters conditions conducive to a sustainable uptrend.” – Link
By Shayan_7 | @cryptoquant_official
Now that BTC halving is approaching, how will miners react?
“Some experts have warned that there could be significant downward pressure on the market by miners immediately after the halving. However, looking at the steady increase in outflow during 2023, it appears that miners have been covering operating costs by selling quantities from time to time.” – Link
By Yonsei_dent | @cryptoquant_official
Learn how Bitcoin miners are preparing for reduced rewards following the halving.
Dive into their strategies to remain profitable.
Join us and special guest, Bob Burnett, founder & CEO of Barefoot Mining for essential insights into Bitcoin mining!
Register Now | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin Inflows to Accumulation Addresses
“Bitcoin inflows to the Accumulation Addresses hit a new all-time high of 27.7k BTC yesterday.” – Link
By IT Tech | @cryptoquant_official
Why Should You Be Cautious? feat. MVRV
“The market is still at an MVRV level of 2.23, which is more than double the average on-chain purchase price. If a similar pattern to the past occurs, a correction of around -20% is possible.” – Link
By CoinLupin | @cryptoquant_official
Why is there still a high probability of more price correction in Bitcoin?
“The Bitcoin price has risen by more than 300% since the last time the market was discounted, and in all the brief 20% corrections along the way there hasn't been a premium period like now.” – Link
By G a a h | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin recently dropped from $71k to $65k.
If the correction persists, keep an eye on key metrics like traders' unrealized profit margins and the realized price.
These have signaled weakness since late March.
Live Dashboard | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin's Surge in Demand Takes Center Stage
As we approach the next Bitcoin halving, it's clear the market dynamics are evolving. Traditionally, halvings have signaled potential price increases as the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation is halved. However, the impact of these events may be lessening as these new issuances become a smaller fraction of the total available Bitcoin.
Key Observations
• Diminishing Impact: The influence of halvings on Bitcoin's price is reducing over time as the effect of new Bitcoin issuance decreases in significance compared to activities by long-term holders.
• Whale Activity: Demand from large Bitcoin holders (whales) has surged, recording an 11% increase month-over-month – the highest ever.
• Permanent Holders: The acquisition of Bitcoin by permanent holders is now outpacing the rate of new Bitcoin being mined, indicating a robust demand-driven market.
Forward Outlook
The shift in dynamics suggests that demand factors, driven by both whales and long-term holders, are becoming increasingly pivotal compared to traditional supply cuts. See our real-time dashboard for all the demand trends.
Live Dashboard | @cryptoquant_official
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Start Creating Cohorts | @cryptoquant_official
Analysis of Bitcoin Price, Volatility and Coinbase Premium Index since Bitcoin Spot ETF's Approval
“Since January 10, 2024, CPI has been the most significant factor driving Bitcoin's price increase.” – Link
By burakkesmeci | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin demand growth seems to be a major driver of higher prices post-halving.
In past cycles, Bitcoin demand growth from large holders/whales (violet area) has spiked, fueling the price rally.
Currently, demand growth is around the highest ever (11% MoM).
Live Dashboard | @cryptoquant_official
Why is the Bitcoin price recovering?
“Additionally, we can see huge BTC inflows to the accumulation addresses, and their reserves hit an all-time high.” – Link
By IT Tech | @cryptoquant_official
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Set Alerts | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin Correction Analysis: Assessing Short-Term Investor Sentiment Amid Market Volatility
“It means that selling pressure is weakening. Weak hands have sold off, and the market is waiting to see what happens next.” – Link
By IT Tech | @cryptoquant_official
With increasing US institutional interest in Bitcoin, the futures market is indicating potential volatility ahead.
Could this lead to a buying opportunity? Here are the insights from our analysts ⬇️
Maartun points out the rising Coinbase Premium as a clear sign that US institutions are actively buying Bitcoin. This premium, which shows the price difference between Coinbase and global exchanges, signals strong institutional engagement, particularly with the rise in U.S. bitcoin ETF inflows.
burakkesmeci observed a significant movement of Bitcoin off exchanges, totaling nearly 18,828 BTC. This likely indicates that institutions are moving their holdings to private wallets, suggesting a possible supply shock on the horizon.
Crypto Sunmoon highlights the unprecedented duration of positive bitcoin futures funding rates, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. This kind of optimism has historically preceded price corrections, suggesting a potential buying opportunity might follow.
Our dashboard provides insights into institutional Bitcoin buying trends, including Coinbase inflows, whale activity, and trading dominance.
Institutional Dashboard | @cryptoquant_official
BTC Selloff: Insights From CDD
“A sudden upswing in CDD could signify heightened activity among long-term holders, potentially in response to shifting market dynamics or alterations in investor sentiment.” – Link
By OnChained | @cryptoquant_official