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Why is Bitcoin price down today?
Bitcoin’s price has recently pulled back, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Macroeconomic factors weigh on Bitcoin
As of Sept. 16, Bitcoin’s price fell by 1.80% to around $58,125, down from its recent high of $60,670. This decline appears linked to traders taking profits ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 18-19. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the lending rate by at least a quarter point, driven by lower inflation and signs of a weakening labor market.
Lower rates typically favor riskier assets like Bitcoin, but traders remain cautious as they await both the Fed’s decision and the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike on Sept. 20. A rate hike could disrupt the “yen carry trade,” which might increase selling pressure on Bitcoin, similar to what happened in August.
Exchanges and miners add sell pressure
Bitcoin’s decline is also linked to increased BTC balances on exchanges. As of Sept. 16, over 3.019 million BTC were held by exchanges, signaling potential sell pressure as more traders move their holdings. Additionally, miners’ revenues have hit their lowest point in nearly a year, prompting some to sell more Bitcoin to cover expenses, which could further contribute to the price drop.
BTC price technical correction
Technically, Bitcoin’s price is continuing its correction after testing the upper trendline of a descending triangle. This correction could push Bitcoin’s price down to the $52,500-$53,000 range. However, a return above key moving averages could reverse the decline, possibly driving Bitcoin back toward $65,000, its August resistance level.
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Ether needs to surpass $2,700 for more upside: Analyst
Ether staged a significant recovery following last week’s $510 billion crypto market sell-off.
Ether price rose over 18% during the past week to trade at $2,655 as of 11:08 am UTC, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Despite the recovery, Ether needs to decisively reclaim the $2,700 resistance for more upside momentum, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research Analyst at Nansen.
The analyst told:
“There has already been a dead cross of ETH (50-day below 200-day). ETH needs to hold above $2,700, or the resistance tested yesterday and in January 2024."
A “death cross” is a technical chart pattern that reflects short-term price weakness compared to the long-term average moving price of the underlying asset. A death cross can often signal a favorable opportunity to purchase an asset at a discounted price.
Ether ETFs: Net outflow spree continues
Institutional inflows remain disappointing, despite the historic launch of the first spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which debuted for trading on July 23.
The nine US spot Ether ETFs saw $15.8 million worth of cumulative negative outflows on Aug. 9, according to Farside Investors data.
Since launch, the spot Ether ETFs have recorded $406 million worth of cumulative net outflows, partially contributing to Ether’s lagging price action.
ETF inflows can significantly contribute to a cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. For Bitcoin, ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investment in the cryptocurrency by Feb. 15 as it surpassed the $50,000 mark.
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Ethereum median gas price hits 5-year low
The median price to send a transaction on the Ethereum blockchain has plummeted to a five-year low, with low-priority transactions dropping to around 1 gwei or lower as activity on layer 2 networks continues to climb.
Ethereum’s median gas fees fell to 1.9 gwei on Aug. 10, according to Dune Analytics data. It is the lowest level in data going back to mid-2019 and a nearly 98% drop from its 83.1 gwei year-to-date high in March.
Etherscan gas fee tracking data for Aug. 12 shows that low-priority Ethereum transactions — those sent in around ten minutes — was priced at 1 gwei, or about seven cents.
Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade in March saw nine Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) go live, one of which introduced data blobs, or proto-danksharding, which aimed to decrease the transaction costs for layer-2 blockchains.
The Ethereum ecosystem has pinned its plans to scale on layer-2 blockchains, which can handle a higher number of transactions for cheaper by abstracting it away from the layer 1 (L1) Ethereum blockchain, though it still uses the L1 to verify their transactions took place.
Commenting on the recent plunge in gas fees, Gnosis co-founder Martin Köppelmann posted to X on Aug. 10 that “Ethereum needs to get more L1 activity again.”
Köppelmann outlined his concern that gas fees of at least 23.9 gwei are needed to fund staking rewards — payouts given to those who help validate blockchain transactions.
“Even if it sounds counterintuitive at such low rates, raising the gas limit can be part of a strategy,” he added.
Ethereum’s layer-2 activity has far outstripped the activity on the base blockchain, with L2BEAT datashowing Base had over 109 million transactions in the last 30 days compared to Ethereum’s 33 million.
Base’s peer layer 2’s Artbitrum and Taiko saw an additional 97 million combined transactions over the last 30 days.
With fewer Ether being used in transactions and as a payout to stakers, its supply has skyrocketed, with nearly 13,400 ETH worth $34.1 million added to its supply in the past seven days, per ultra sound money data.
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Bitcoin price must flip $62K to avoid worst ‘death cross’ consequences
Bitcoin can beat its imminent “death cross” if it flips $62,000 to support, the latest analysis says.
In a dedicated X thread on Aug. 9, popular trader Benjamin Cowen used history to suggest how bulls might avoid a fresh Bitcoin price dive.
$62,000 becomes key BTC price resistance hurdle
Recent BTC price action has led BTC/USD to the door of another moving average crossover classically known as a “death cross.”
This involves the downward-sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below its 200-day equivalent. Currently, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs stand at 61,998 and 91,882, respectively, per data.
The death cross gets its name from the assumption that the crossover acts as a prewarning for the downside of the BTC price once it is complete.
As Cowen shows, however, the results are often mixed. The last daily death cross in 2023, in fact, precluded a bout of gains.
“In 2023, BTC started its rally just after the death cross. It then got above its 50D SMA and subsequently held it as support before going higher,” he noted.
By contrast, in 2019, 2021 and 2022, a brief tap higher into the death cross event itself ultimately gave way to the expected result — losses.
“The durability of this move will likely depend on first BTC getting above its 50D SMA ($62k), and then holding it as support like it did in 2023,” Cowen concluded.
He added that should that fail, the downside may return until macroeconomic conditions notably change. Specifically, the United States Federal Reserve should perform a “sufficient pivot” on interest rates to boost crypto and risk assets.
Bitcoin open interest sluggish on BTC price rebound
BTC/USD continued its recovery on the day, reaching $62,775 into the prior daily close before returning to consolidate slightly lower at the time of writing.
Market observers noted a lack of rebound in futures market open interest despite the higher prices, this coming days after a giant flush rarely seen in Bitcoin’s history in terms of scale.
“This Bitcoin bounce has been mostly shorts covering positions in the futures market,” Julio Moreno, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in part of an X response.
Fellow contributor Axel Adler Jr meanwhile flaggedthe area above $62,000 as key resistance, with major support still at this week’s six-month lows beneath $50,000.
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Bitcoin speculators sit on 93% unrealized losses after $365M 'wipeout'
Bitcoin has “purged” market speculators as liquidations reach $365 million, new research says.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” crypto analytics firm Glassnode confirmed a “statistically significant capitulation.”
Bitcoin unrealized losses echo FTX
Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) have come under intense pressure thanks to this week’s BTC price crash.
As reported, at one point, these newcomer entities sold $850 million of BTC at a loss. Now, new findings from Glassnode show the extent to which overleveraged players have been removed from the market.
STH entities are those hodling a given unit of BTC for 155 days or less, while their counterparts, the long-term holders (LTHs), hodl for more than 155 days.
STHs tend to be far more sensitive to market shocks than LTHs, and this week’s trip to $49,500 was no exception.
“Short-Term Holders are currently holding the largest unrealized loss since the FTX implosion, which again highlights a point of serious investor stress imposed by current market conditions,” Glassnode summarized.
Just 7% of STH holdings currently sit in profit, a number that echoes the BTC price dip below $30,000, which began a year ago.
“This is also more than -1 standard deviation below the long-term average for this metric, and suggests a notable degree of financial stress amongst recent buyers,” the research added.
Glassnode likewise confirmed that STHs are “dominating” onchain losses, with just 3% attributable to the LTH cohort.
Various other metrics provided similar insights into the speculator wipeout, with the research characterizing the broader market reaction to the price declines as “one of panic and fear.”
The STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, for instance, recorded lows only surpassed on 70 days in Bitcoin’s history.
“Short-Term Holder SOPR has also reached staggering depths, as new investors locked in a -10% loss on average,” “The Week Onchain” commented.
An "exceptionally eventful month" for Bitcoin
SOPR has not gone unnoticed elsewhere. In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Aug. 7, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant drew similar conclusions, suggesting that current prices could mark a potential buying opportunity.
“We know that the metric last reached the 0.95 level in December 2022, which initiated a bull run,” contributing analyst XBTManager noted.
“During bull trends, the 0.95-0.90 range is usually a good buying level. Currently, the metric is at 0.90.”
Concluding, Glassnode called August an “exceptionally eventful month.”
“Bitcoin recorded its largest drawdown (-32%) from the ATH of the cycle, and precipitated a statistically significant capitulation amongst Short-Term Holders. Futures liquidations fuelled the fire, with over $365m worth of contracts forced closed, and creating a 3 standard deviation reduction in open interest,” it wrote.
“This has led to a meaningful flush out of leverage, and paves the way for on-chain and spot market data to be of key importance for analysts assessing the recovery in the weeks to come.”
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Bitcoin needs ‘low $40,000s’ for best bull market entry — 10x Research
Bitcoiners should wait on the sidelines until the asset’s price falls to the low $40,000 zone to get the best entry price ahead of the next bull run, according to a crypto market analyst.
“To ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s,” 10x Research head of Research Markus Thielen wrote in an Aug. 7 report.
“We would then expect another major rally attempt,” Thielen told.
The last time Bitcoin was within this range was Feb. 6, trading at $42,577, according to CoinMarketCap data.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is valued at $56,848, down 12.89% since July 31.
Thielen isn’t alone. Other analysts also think Bitcoin could fall into the $40,000s in the next few months.
“$40k and $80k equally likely in the next 60 days,” Cane Island Alternative Advisors founder Timothy Peterson wrote in an Aug. 5 X post.
“If Bitcoin breaks this support, $40k is next,” Crypto Rover told his 808,400 X followers.
“I’d love to see Bitcoin drop to $50K, or even $40K. That would be a perfect opportunity to scoop up some more,” Gokhstein Media founder David Gokhstein added.
Thielen is skeptical of hodling being a safe bet
While $60,000 had been a solid support level for Bitcoin since March, it’s now slipped below that threshold for two consecutive days.
With expected near-term volatility, Thielen advises against a buy-and-hold strategy, noting that Bitcoin and Ether currently don’t offer the same high risk-reward ratio seen recently in United States stock markets.
“Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum is exhibiting the steady, high Sharpe ratio uptrends that US stock market investors have enjoyed with minimal effort,” Thielen stated.
However, Thielen still believes Bitcoin’s current price could pose a buying opportunity but suggests putting a stop loss at $54,000, as the “risk remains to the downside.”
“Especially since we have seen three consecutive days of outflows from the ETFs which do not appear to be buying this dip,” he explained.
Thielen pointed out that investors in the United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched on Jan. 11 are now “underwater” since the average price is “around $60,000.”
“Given Bitcoin’s current downtrend, retail investors, who often follow trends, may hesitate to engage in massive buy-the-dip ETF flows,” he added.
Thielen was “astounded” that despite $17 billion pouring into spot Bitcoin ETFs since they launched, Bitcoin dropped below $50,000 on Aug. 5, edging closer to its Jan. 11 launch day price of $46,656.
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Ethereum’s quick rebound positions ETH price for 100% rally
Ethereum’s native token, Ether, is undergoing a sharp bounce after dropping to its eight-month low on Aug. 5. Interestingly, this rebound shows similarities with the one in October 2023 that preceded a 168% price boom.
Has ETH price already bottomed?
As of Aug. 6, the ETH/USD pair showed signs of bullish reversal after rebounding from a support confluence comprising the lower trendline of its prevailing ascending channel pattern and the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave).
Simultaneously, the bounce accompanies a rise in Ether’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) reading from 39.40, just over nine points above the oversold threshold.
Ether technical indicators looked the same in October 2023, which—combined with supportive fundamentals such as the pre-halving rally and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs—helped the price rally toward the ascending channel's upper trendline.
If the fractal plays out as intended, Ether has already bottomed out at its Aug. 5 low of around $2,128 and is now rallying toward the ascending channel’s upper trendline at around $4,560. When measured from the current price levels, this amounts to an over 100% rally by 2024.
Rate cuts may further boost Ethereum’s upside
From a fundamental perspective, the anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts could increase demand for Ether as traders seek higher returns from riskier assets and move away from lower-yielding options like government bonds.
Bond traders believe the US economy is deteriorating so rapidly that the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates aggressively before their next meeting to prevent a recession. Concerns about high inflation have faded, replaced by fears of economic slowdown.
Traders now estimate a 60% chance of an emergency 0.25% rate cut within a week, according to Bloomberg. Moreover, CME data shows increasing probabilities of three rate cuts by 2024.
The scenario is similar to March 2020, when the market sharply rebounded after the Fed’s intervention in response to the COVID-19 market crash.
"The final capitulation indeed as it hit that lowest point as similarly did in 2020 which signaled a bottom," noted market analyst Milkybull Crypto about the broader altcoin market, adding:
"I don't think this time is different."
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Bitcoin dominance hits 58% amid altcoin, stock market bloodbath
Bitcoin dominance — the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the rest of crypto — has notched a new yearly high of 58% amid a crypto and stock market tumble.
Bitcoin's dominance briefly touched 58.1% in the early hours of Aug. 5 amid a sudden sell-off that saw Ether drop as far as 18% in two hours, while BTC fell 10% in the same time frame.
IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told that the drawdown serves as a reminder that Bitcoin and crypto assets more broadly sit very much at the “pointy end” of the risk asset spectrum.
“It's a position wash with some recession and hard-landing fears driving it and some war fears as well given the fact that Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging rockets over the weekend, and the US is ramping up that military presence in the area,” Sycamore said.
Sycamore explained that the wider bloodbath occurring in Asian markets, including a massive 8% daily stumble in Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korean trading halts came back to a wider risk-off move in the global market.
“If you had to point to three markets or areas that did really well at the start of this year, it'd be the tech trade, it'd be Bitcoin and the Japan trade.”
“So I don't think there's any surprise that they're the three trades that have fallen by the largest amount,” he added.
Additionally, Sycamore explained that Ether’s price action had been “copping it” in particular due to the large number of other tokens and ecosystems built on top of the network.
“When altcoins get poleaxed it blows through into [Ether’s] price action as well,” Sycamore said, noting significant unwinding and sell pressure stemming from crypto trading firm Jump Crypto.
The price of Ether is down 30% in the last seven days, while major altcoins including Solana, BNB, and XRP are down 35%, 25%, and 21% respectively in the same time frame, per CoinGecko data.
Looking forward, Sycamore noted the upcoming release Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report as something that could shed light on where the market is headed from here.
“I think that ISM number has the potential to either calm or inflame concern because if all of a sudden we get cracking in the labor market, then it would show us the Fed has missed their window, which would probably lead to further downside for all risk assets, including crypto.”
Sycamore added that if ISM numbers moved into “expansionary territory” then it could be a sign that the market is stronger than expected, putting a solid floor under the price of the risk assets.
“But if all three manufacturing, labor market, and services point the same way, then that's potentially really problematic,” he said.
The last 72 hours have seen as much as $500 billion shaved off crypto’s total market capitalization, the largest three-day sell-off since August 2023.
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Bitcoin traders warn of tough Q3 as Nikkei echoes ‘Black Monday’ 1987
Bitcoin needs to hold $60,000 for a shot at fresh all-time highs as traders voice concerns over BTC price performance.
Bitcoin price steadies as stocks sell off
Data shows Bitcoin bouncing from fresh two-week lows of $62,235 on Aug. 2.
Bitcoin continues to tease a breakdown toward $60,000 as risk assets see a period of flux to start the month.
Stock markets worldwide are in the middle of an extended sell-off, and while crypto has yet to copy the extent of their volatility, concerns over the immediate future remain.
On Aug. 1, Japan made headlines as the Nikkei fell 6% — its biggest single-day drop since the global stock market crash of 1987, known as “Black Monday.”
Traders note that traditionally, the second half of Q3 is a difficult time for Bitcoin. Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass underscores the fact that both August and September have been “red” months in recent years.
In August 2023, BTC price action saw a flash downtrend briefly take the market to $25,000 — lows that have held since.
“Bitcoin closed July in the green, gaining 2.95%,” popular trader Jelle reacted to the data in one of his latest X posts.
“Historically, the market tends to struggle in the remainder of Q3 -- but really starts moving higher once October comes around. Let’s see what we get this time around.”
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, sees the key support test coming in the form of $60,000 — a theory echoing others currently circulating on social media.
“Bitcoin needs to hold above $60-61K and then we're going to be seeing a continuation towards the all-time high,” he predicted.
“Historically, August & September are bad, however, I’m expecting that from mid-August the momentum starts to change. New ATH in September/October.”
BTC price breakout “getting closer”
As reported, other concerns currently focus on the series of lower highs and lower lows being printed by Bitcoin on daily timeframes.
Since hitting $73,800 all-time highs in March, price action has been characterized by sellers maintaining control of the market above the old 2021 record of $69,000.
Jelle, however, is among those unfazed by the months of consolidation and support retests that have come since.
“Bitcoin is still trading inside the channel we've spent the past months inside of, but holding above key supports,” he continued this week alongside an explanatory chart.
“Looks like a breakout is getting closer by the day. Patience, until then.”
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Bitcoin traders flag ‘inflection point’ in key futures market metric as BTC breaks range
The Bitcoin market is at an “inflection point” after a historic Bitcoin 2024 conference that has seen BTC futures open interest break out of range, according to analysts.
“We finally have a breakout of this range,” declared independent analyst Horse, referring to Bitcoin’s futures open interest.
Open interest (OI) refers to the total number of BTC-related derivative contracts currently open on all exchanges.
A rise in this metric suggests that investors are opening new positions in the derivative market. Generally, the total leverage in the market goes up when new contracts crop up, so an increase in OI could lead to higher volatility for the asset.
Independent market analyst Horse shared the following chart showing that Bitcoin’s OI on Coinbase Pro had broken above a level that had held it down since March when BTC price hit new all-time highs.
Bitcoin OI had risen alongside the price as the rally was fueled by a shift in US politics toward pro-crypto narratives.
Horse referred to former US President Donald Trump’s remarks at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville on July 27, saying that the sector was handed every bullish thing on a silver platter.
“It is debatable whether or not they actually come to fruition, but you are now a bit more obligated to be long-term bullish on this asset class either way.”
Horse explained that Bitcoin price was trading higher following Trump’s speech, as long bets in both perpetual and options markets were closed out. “This is very bullish,” he said.
“Fresh longs here are poor from an r:r basis. It definitely favors shorts or at least hedges if you went off that alone, which would be terribly stupid but worth noting. This is because the invalidation is so close, i.e., hedge 69+, close on a break of the highs.”
Fellow analyst Skew shared similar sentiments, saying that the overall Bitcoin perpetual futures market was “net long.”
Skew added that “constant spot buying” would be required for the price to break to $72,000, which would cover the risks that longs currently carry.
“However, it’s pretty apparent that if spot buying stops for a bit, the direct risk of forced long de-leveraging would be pretty clear (it often ends up as a quick wick into market bid liquidity). The market is at an inflection point.”
As predicted by Skew, Bitcoin’s price has dropped lower, away from the $70,000 mark, to trade at $67,271, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. This has resulted in the liquidation of more than $55.66 million long BTC leveraged positions over the last 24 hours, with $46.74 million liquidated over the last 4 hours alone.
However, with Bitcoin futures OI reaching all-time highs above $39.4 billion, BTC price could soon be on track to break out to new all-time highs, making the ongoing correction could be short-lived.
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‘Feels surreal’ — Bitcoin sticks to $68K as market ignores 200K BTC US election pledge
Bitcoin headed for a crunch weekly close on July 28 after markets shook off United States presidential candidates’ crypto pledges.
BTC price brushes off Trump crypto policy plans
Data showed the Bitcoin price stabilizing after flash volatility around the Bitcoin 2024 conference.
Anticipation of a snap price surge had built far in advance of the event. Two presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., both stated plans to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve of at least 200,000 BTC. However, the impact was muted.
“There’s a 65% chance of a US strategic reserve for Bitcoin and you can still buy it for under $70K,” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, reactedon X, referring to Trump’s election odds.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested that the overall lack of market response could be a question of time.
“Think people are a bit surprised and confused by this timeline,” he wrote in his own X analysis of speeches by Trump and others.
“Feels surreal what we just saw & heard. We basically got what we wanted. This was partially priced in but we saw a big flush of longs before Trump made the statement.”
Daan Crypto Trades added that was “heavily underpricing” the strategic reserve commitments.
“Even if they won’t buy any new coins, just holding their seized coins will rule out a ~$15B supply overhang,” he noted, referencing recent sell-side pressure from state actors.
“This is more than the German Government & Mt. Gox together.”
Bitcoin monthly close in focus
With the conference buzz dying down, Bitcoin traders thus turned their attention to the upcoming weekly and monthly close.
The previous candle finish came in at nearly $68,200, leaving uncertainty over whether the week would ultimately see losses.
Analyzing relative strength index (RSI) data, popular trader MegaWhale Crypto nonetheless hoped for upside continuation.
“BTC weekly RSI has broken upward! This is a great sign, however to validate the breakout the RSI will need to sustain > the diagonal down trending resistance until weekly close and close above,” he summarized on July 27.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, was more conservative. Bitcoin, he said, was still rejecting from key resistance overhead.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed BTC/USD up 7.8% in July, cancelling out the losses seen in June.
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Bitcoin price dip may retest $55K before next leg up
Bitcoin price dipped below a key trendline as analysts eye a potential correction below $55,000 before it can rebound.
BTC price below key post-halving trendline
Bitcoin’s price fell below a key growth trajectory line based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles.
Recovering above this trend line, which is around $63,000, could put Bitcoin back on track to new highs, according to crypto research platform Ecoinometrics. It wrote in an Aug. 12 X post:
“Bitcoin has dipped below its historical post-halving growth trajectory range. If it returns to this range before year-end, we’re looking at a high likelihood of a six-figure value for one BTC.”
Provided that Bitcoin follows the same trajectory seen during previous halving cycles, it could reach over $140,000 during the cycle top in 2025.
Will Bitcoin revisit $55,00 before more upside?
Bitcoin price could still correct below $55,000, based on the upcoming Aug. 14 release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
A higher-than-expected reading could lead to another correction, according to pseudonymous trader Crypto Bullet, who wrote in an Aug. 12 X post:
“What a monster bullish weekly candle! Long wick, green body. Strong recovery. […] While I think it’s possible to test $53-55k one last time if CPI comes in hot on Wednesday, I can’t be bearish here.”
However, Bitcoin miner reserves fell to 1.8 million BTC, which is lower than miner reserves at the beginning of March when Bitcoin hit its all-time high, noted verified CryptoQuant author Binhdangg, in an Aug. 12 X post.
Decreasing miner reserves means less upcoming Bitcoin sell pressure, as miners rely on selling Bitcoin for operations costs.
Yet, Bitcoin needs a confirmation above $60,600 for more upward momentum, according to popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital.
The analyst wrote in an Aug. 10 X post:
“Bitcoin is doing all the right things to confirming $60,600 as support so as to position price for a revisit of $65,000+ over time.”
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Bitcoin price drops below $59K as institutions stop buying stablecoins
Institutional investors have halted their accumulation of stablecoins over the past two days, leading to a drop in Bitcoin’s price below a key psychological level.
During the past 24 hours, Bitcoin price fell 3.9% to trade at $58,930 as of 08:03 a.m. in UTC, falling from a weekly high of $62,510.
The drop below the $60,000 mark was likely caused by institutions stopping their stablecoin buying frenzy, according to onchain analytics platform Lookonchain’s Aug. 12 X post:
“Institutions seem to have temporarily stopped buying, and the price of $BTC dropped 4.5% today! We noticed that institutions stopped receiving $USDT from #TetherTreasury and transferring it to exchanges 2 days ago.”
The lack of institutional stablecoin inflows to crypto exchanges can signal a lack of buying pressure and investor appetite for the underlying asset, as stablecoins are the main on-ramp from the fiat to the crypto world used by investors.
Tether’s previously minted $1.3 billion marked the local bottom
Tether, the issuer of USDT — the world’s largest stablecoin — has minted over $1.3 billion worth of stablecoins from the market bottom on Aug. 5 until Aug. 9.
The $1.3 billion was transferred to some of the most popular centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, including Kraken, Coinbase, OKX and Bullish.
Bitcoin price bottomed at a five-month low of above $49,500 on Aug. 5 and staged an over 21% recovery to above $60,000 by Aug. 9.
Bitcoin price could stage a recovery above the $60,000 psychological resistance once large institutional stablecoin inflows resume.
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $60,000 for more upward momentum: analyst
In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin price needs to reclaim $60,600 for the next leg up, according to popular analyst Rekt Capital, who wrote in an Aug. 10 X post:
“Bitcoin is doing all the right things to confirm $60,600 as support so as to position price for a revisit of $65,000+ over time.”
However, inflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain low. The US Bitcoin ETFs saw over $89 million worth of net negative outflows on Aug. 9, according to Farside Investors data.
ETF inflows can significantly contribute to a cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. For Bitcoin, ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investment in the cryptocurrency by Feb. 15 as it surpassed the $50,000 mark.
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Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator flips bullish as price holds $60K
The Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator, which tracks investor sentiment phases, has flipped to signal bullish conditions, following three days of flashing red as Bitcoin’s price plummeted to levels not seen since February.
“Most Bitcoin on-chain cyclical indicators that were hovering near the borderline have now shifted back to signaling a bull market,” CryptoQuant founder and CEKi Young Ju wrote in an Aug. 9 X post.
“Bitcoin is still in a bull market,” pseudonymous crypto trader PlanB added.
“BTC was discounted for only three days,” Ju claimed. The analysis comes after Bitcoin fell to $49,751 on Aug. 5, which is being called “Crypto Black Monday.” It was its first drop below $50,000 since February.
Bitcoin then traded below the critical key level of $60,000 until Aug. 8, according to CoinMarketCap data.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $60,732.
The Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator hadn’t flashed a bear signal since January 2023, shortly after the FTX collapse.
It wasn’t alone in signaling bearish sentiment, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index also hit an “Extreme Fear” score of 17 on Aug. 6, the lowest since the FTX crash.
Since then, the score has bounced back to a “Neutral” reading of 48.
Some Bitcoin traders believe the quick reversal suggests that the recent price dip might have been a bear trap — when experienced traders sell Bitcoin in a controlled manner to temporarily lower the asset’s price to trap short-sellers.
Analyst split on where to next
While some analysts think Bitcoin's recent downturn mirrors previous trends before bull runs, others are more skeptical.
On Aug. 7, 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen stated that “to ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s.”
In an Aug. 6 report, Cathie Wood's investment firm Ark Invest stated that Bitcoin's most important price supports are at $52,000 and $46,000.
Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt explained that Bitcoin's “decline since halving is now similar to that of the 2015-2017 halving bull market cycle,” suggesting that a bull run may follow.
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Over $350M Ether set for withdrawal in the next 9 hours. Can ETH price remain above $2.2K?
Over $350 million worth of Ether tokens are set to be unlocked in the next nine hours, threatening to lower the ETH price below a critical support level.
A total of 145,380 Ether is set for withdrawal at 8:00 pm UTC, threatening an additional $353 million worth of selling pressure for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, according to Token Unlocks data.
While Ether withdrawals don’t necessarily translate into selling, a significant part of these tokens could still end up being sold on the open market.
While the $350 million unlock is significant in size, similar withdrawals are routine since Ethereum's Merge and Shanghai upgrades, according to Bitfinex Analysts, who told:
“$350M worth of Ether is not a very significant amount in context of the fact that it’s a $300 billion asset and the daily volume on CEXes amounts to $24 billion. We do not think this particular piece of news is significant enough to cause a market collapse or a 10% decline in ETH as mentioned.”
Ether price has been in a downtrend for three consecutive weeks, dipping to an over five-month low below $2,200 this week after the three-day $510 billion crypto sell-off. Losing this psychological support line could introduce more panic selling.
Validators could introduce another $877 million in Ether selling pressure
Ethereum validators are preparing to cash in their tokens and staking rewards, potentially looking to sell.
There is an additional 360,000 Ether pending for withdrawals by over 10,000 validators. This could introduce an additional $877 million worth of selling pressure for Ether.
While the crypto market sell-off that led to Ether’s decline was catalyzed by an array of macroeconomic factors, industry-specific developments also played an important role in the price crash.
The market crash could be directly linked toaggressive selling by Jump Trading, according to QCP Group, one of Singapore’s first digital asset trading groups. QCO Group wrote in an Aug. 5 report:
“The immediate trigger in crypto seems to have been aggressive ETH selling from Jump Trading and Paradigm VC. The move was probably exacerbated by market makers scrambling to cut short gamma as front-end ETH volumes spiked more than 30% to 120%!”
Yet, Jump Trading wasn’t the only one selling Ether. Five of the top market makers have sold a total of 130,000 Ether, worth over $290 million, while Ether’s price crashed from $3,000 to below $2,200.
Is the Ether price bottom in?
The local bottom may be in for Ether price, according to crypto analysts.
ETH fractals also point to a potential price breakout in the near term, according to pseudonymous analyst Crypto Bullet, who wrote in an Aug. 6 X post:
“Ethereum cycle comparison: $ETH 2017-2021 vs #ETH 2021-2024. Looks like we’re exactly where we should be.”
Fractal patterns are used by technical traders to identify key support and resistance levels and potential trend reversals based on historical data.
Other analysts are also expecting a local price bottom, including popular analyst Poseidon, who wrote in an Aug. 7 X post:
“The market will bottom in the green and will offer several chances to buy $ETH over the next 2 months.”
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Bitcoin could fall below $50K if Magnificent 7 stocks stage another $500 billion loss
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have seen a sharp decline, threatening to bring more downward pressure on Bitcoin price.
Magnificent Seven, a moniker for some of the top-performing tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, lost over $650 billion in cumulative market capitalization during regular trading on Aug. 5.
Despite staging a slight recovery since, another potential decline in the top tech stocks could lead to lower Bitcoin prices, according to Akshay Nassa, the founder of Chimp exchange. Nassa told:
“The correlation between stock market performance and cryptocurrency values is well-documented; as major tech stocks falter, investor sentiment generally shifts away from alternative assets, including Bitcoin.”
The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks gained even more importance, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq has entered a significant correction, which could spill over into the crypto space, according to Nassa.
Could Bitcoin dip below $50,000 as tech stocks struggle?
While stocks are generally more resilient to market volatility, another decline in the Magnificent Seven could hurt Bitcoin price, according to Alvin Kan, the COO of Bitget Wallet.
Kan told:
“If the Magnificent 7, including Amazon and Apple, are falling, investors would want some form of insulation from even more risky assets like Bitcoin. This means that the extreme capital flight in the broader financial market can also weigh in on Bitcoin price.”
Pressure from tech stocks, along with other crypto-specific catalysts, could potentially threaten another dip below the $50,000 mark, explained Kan:
“The ongoing market slump, accounting for a 32.32% drop from the former All-Time High for Bitcoin, has re-ignited the speculations of a further drop to $40,000… However, the price of Bitcoin is not crashing in isolation.”
Other factors influencing Bitcoin and crypto prices include the Bank of Japan’s latest interest rate cut, along with “aggressive” ETH selling from market makers like Jump Trading, Kan added.
The macro Bitcoin bottom is in, according to analyst
The local Bitcoin bottom may be in, according to historical chart patterns on the monthly chart, analyzed by pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital.
The analyst wrote in an Aug. 6 X post:
“We are here (orange circle)”
However, the extent of the current correction will mainly depend on the inflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The US Bitcoin ETFs have recorded three consecutive days of net outflows, with over $148 million worth of cumulative outflows on Aug. 6, according to Farside Investors data.
ETF inflows can significantly contribute to a cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. For Bitcoin, ETFs had accounted for about 75% of new investment in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by Feb. 15 as it surpassed the $50,000 mark.
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BTC price chart shows Bitcoin can match $49.5K lows within days
Bitcoin risks another trip below $50,000 after a giant daily candle wick spooks analysis.
In his latest X coverage, popular trader CrypNuevo warned that recent BTC price volatility may end up in Bitcoin matching six-month lows.
BTC price history shows wicks “filled” in days
Bitcoin has managed to bounce more than $5,000versus its $49,500 bottom seen on Aug. 5.
Consensus is yet to form over where BTC/USD could be headed next, however, and opinions are diverging as the dust continues to settle on a grim day’s losses.
For CrypNuevo, there is cause for concern. Historically, he noted, large wicks generated by volatility tend not to wait long before price returns to “fill” them, matching the lows.
Uploading an explanatory chart, he showed that it is often a matter of days before such a process plays out.
“I’ve marked in this chart all the long wicks applicable to the wick-fill strategy since March to put things into perspective,” part of an accompanying commentary added.
“We don’t know when exactly this new long wick will get filled, but it should get filled sooner or later.”
Another post noted a curious element of the BTC price rebound. The bounce, CrypNuevo acknowledged, had come at a key level.
“We bounced from EXACTLY the 50% level of a previous long wick,” he concluded.
Analysis: “Possibly time” to consider Bitcoin, Ether buys
Other market participants gingerly floated the idea of a bottom having already formed for both Bitcoin and largest altcoin Ether.
Among them was trading firm QCP Capital, which flagged a giant leverage flush as a cathartic event for bulls.
“Yesterday’s risk-off rout flushed out a decent chunk of leverage,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.
“With prices having fallen off a cliff, it is possibly time to start thinking about accumulating BTC and ETH spot.”
QCP was also optimistic on macroeconomic moves going forward. The United States Federal Reserve, it argued, was unlikely to enact an emergency interest rate cut, inducing extra market panic in the process.
“Asset prices are likely to stay volatile and markets remain choppy until clarity on Fed and BoJ policy is provided, with key updates expected from BoJ Deputy Governor [Shinichi] Uchida on Wednesday and the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference from August 22-24,” it stated, referring to upcoming cues from both the Fed and the Bank of Japan.
BTC/USD traded at around $55,000 at the Aug. 6 Wall Street open, per data.
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Bitcoin price downside may last 2 months — Analysis
The current Bitcoin crash could last nearly two more months based on historical price movements, before a new bullish chart pattern could lead to a price breakout, according to analysts.
Bitcoin’s downside deviation could last nearly 2 months: analyst
Bitcoin price is currently experiencing a downside deviation, that could last nearly 2 months, according to popular analyst Rekt Capital.
The analyst wrote in an Aug. 3 X post:
“Bitcoin has returned to the Range Low area, with scope still for additional downside deviation in the near future. And currently, at ~110 days after the Halving, Bitcoin is slowly getting closer to its historical breakout point of 150-160 days after the Halving.”
Bitcoin price briefly crashed below $50,000 on Aug. 5, after the Bank of Japan announced that it was raising its interest rate from 0% to 0.25%.
Japan’s decision had a direct impact on the US stock market and Bitcoin price as well, as traders were borrowing Japanese Yen at low interest rates to buy assets in the US market.
The crypto market experienced a $510 billion loss in total market capitalization, marking the biggest three-day sell-off in over a year.
Bitcoin could break out from a macro bull flag after the downside deviation
Despite the gloomy outlook, an emerging bullish chart pattern is inspiring more optimism among crypto holders.
Bitcoin price could see a breakout due to an emerging bull flag, a bullish chart pattern that is used to spot upcoming rallies, according to popular analyst Satoshi Flipper, who wrote in an Aug. 4 X post:
“The most epic bull flag in $BTC history has been forming for 7 months now, imagine being upset about this.”
Bitcoin also seems to be forming a bull flag on the monthly chart, according to crypto analyst Elja, who wrote in an Aug. 4 X post:
“BTC giant bull flag. The Bitcoin breakout pump will be legendary.”
However, in the shorter term, Bitcoin’s downtrend could potentially extend to the $42,000 mark, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FXPro.
The analyst told:
“At its lowest point, Bitcoin dipped below its 50-week moving average. Without strong buyer support right now, it goes even lower, and it would trigger an even more active sell-off as it did in late 2021 and early 2022. If it doesn’t hold either, it’s worth preparing for a failure toward $42K.”
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Bitcoin crashes below $53K wiping out $600M in leveraged longs
The price of Bitcoin crashed as low as $52,500 on Aug. 5, in a sudden drawdown that saw BTC tumble 10% from $58,350 in less than two hour
Bitcoin has since regained some ground since the ab flash crash and is trading for $54,384 at the time of publication, per TradingView data.
The last time BTC traded below $53,000 was on Feb. 26 earlier this year, as the price rallied following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.
The price of Ether also plummeted, falling 18% from $2,695 to as low as $2,118 within the same time frame. ETH has bounced slightly and is currently trading for $2,358 at the time of publication, per TradingView data.
The sharp downward move has now seen over $740 million in leverage positions wiped out across the crypto market in the last 24 hours, with just over $644 million in leveraged longs being liquidated, per CoinGlass data.
Notably, traders looking to gain leveraged exposure to Ether were the hardest hit, with over $256 million in ETH longs cleaned up, while $231 million in BTC longs were forcibly closed.
There has been a significant increase in the open interest for ETH over the last few months, with traders flocking to gain exposure to the asset in the lead-up to and aftermath of the approval of spot Ether ETFs in the US.
The sharp downturn in crypto asset prices came amid a sharp sell-off in the Japanese stock market, the Nikkei 225, which is currently down 7.1% in early trading hours.
On Aug. 2 Japanese bank stocks notched their worst day of performance since 2008, buffeted by a decision from the country's central bank to hike interest rates.
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Ethereum price clings 'crucial area,' drop below $2.8K looming
Ether is holding tight to a critical support level and is at a tipping point that could lead to a decline below $2,800 if it fails to hold, according to crypto traders.
“Ethereum is holding onto the crucial area of support,” MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe wrote in an Aug. 3 X post. Van de Poppe further explained that if it fails to maintain the level, it may impact Ether around a further 4%, and push Bitcoin — which is trading at $60,717 — further down into an uncertain range for traders.
“If this is lost, Bitcoin is likely going to test $60K and Ethereum will test <$2,800 as the final big correction,” Van de Poppe claimed.
Other traders also suggested that Ether’s price might drop below $2,800 before any recovery begins.
“The only other level which seems price could go before a full blown reversal would be around $2.7k,” pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto Wealth wrote.
“At this point, the price should sweep the 2800 lows and test the weekly demand, $2500-$2700,” pseudonymous crypto trader Poseidon added.
Ether is currently trading at $2,885 at the time of publication, down 11.09% since July 28, according to CoinMarketCap data.
A slight decline to $2,800 will wipe out $259.46 million in long positions, according to CoinGlass data.
Given Ether's current volatile range, van de Poppe pointed out that there's also potential for a rebound in the near term.
“If that doesn't happen and we rotate back up from here, it's party time,” he stated.
This comes after a week of spot Ethereum ETFs oscillating between inflows and outflows. The overall net amount from July 29 to Aug. 2 was outflows totaling $169.4 million, according to Farside data.
On Aug. 1, Katalin Tischhauser, head of investment research at Sygnum Bank told Cointelegraph that spot Ether exchange-traded funds could amass as much as $10 billion in assets under management within their first year of trading.
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Bitcoin ignores 100% Fed rate cut odds as BTC price taps 2-week lows
Bitcoin stayed lower at the Aug. 1 Wall Street open as crypto shrugged off fresh central bank interest rate cuts.
Dovish Fed offers no respite to Bitcoin bulls
Data showed BTC price lacking momentum after dropping 2.4% the day prior.
Downside persisted despite the United States Federal Reserve adopting a dovish tone at the latest meeting to decide on interest rate changes.
In a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to leave rates unchanged, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that a cut could come at the next meeting in September.
“We have stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” he said in a prepared statement.
“The second-quarter’s inflation readings have added to our confidence, and more good data would further strengthen that confidence. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”
Markets, which had already priced in 100% odds of a September cut, saw this ultimately being 0.25%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
While US equities reacted well to the event, crypto showed little interest in following suit, with BTC/USD hitting local lows of $63,400 — its lowest since July 19.
“The mental illness continues. Historically, liquidity sweeps fail if they've been endlessly frontrun,” popular trader Crypto Chase summarized to X followers on the day.
“I don't have a strong read here, but I think anywhere from mid 61's to 59 is possible. Bids simply depend on how aggressive/confident you are. Accept below 59 is a bad look.”
Fellow trader CrypNuevo meanwhile saw the potential for a short squeeze from near current levels.
Noting that the bulk of liquidation levels lay above, not below spot, he predicted that such an event could come before the weekend.
Crypto markets "on edge"
Zooming out, trading firm QCP Capital said that inflows into the newly-launched US spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could provide a short-term narrative for crypto market sentiment.
“Unfortunately, the rally in equities was not felt in crypto. Crypto experienced a broad sell-off overnight and into this morning,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.
“The market remains on edge as traders pay close attention to daily ETH ETF outflows and further supply pressures from Mt Gox and US government.”
QCP saw ongoing posturing by US Presidential candidates playing a key role for crypto going forward, with markets “potentially rangebound until the next catalyst.”
“Longer-term, discussions among US Presidential candidates and Senators regarding a sovereign Bitcoin reserve, and the potential for other nations to follow suit, could fundamentally alter the cryptocurrency landscape,” it continued.
“The establishment of a U.S. or sovereign ‘put’ on BTC prices may have significant implications, potentially making accumulation on dips a strategic investment approach.”
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XRP déjà vu: Is another 60,000% price surge on the horizon?
The XRP market is showing patterns that mirror the conditions preceding its monumental 60,000% price rally in 2018.
XRP’s monthly volatility drops to record-low
The Bollinger Band Width (BBW) on XRP’s monthly chart hit a new low in July, reflecting years of the XRP/USD trading pair moving within a narrower trading range.
From a technical perspective, these periods of low volatility can often precede major price movements. In other words, when the bands are narrow, it suggests that a breakout—either upward or downward—may be imminent as the market transitions back to higher volatility.
For instance, XRP’s BBW was the narrowest during the 2016-2017 session, accompanying a flatlining price action inside the $0.0050-0.0090 range. That was followed by a 66,000% price breakout, with the XRP monthly volatility, as indicated by the BBW readings, rising from 66.50 to as high as 982.22.
This time, XRP’s consolidation has lasted twice as long as during 2016-2017, while monthly volatility has been even lower. As a result, some analysts, including Tony Severino, anticipate a major price breakout in the XRP market.
Can XRP repeat its 60,000% rally?
On the monthly timeframe, XRP’s current valuation of about $0.62 is close to the middle Bollinger Band. This positioning near the middle band typically reflects balanced market forces, with neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum.
XRP's monthly relative strength index (RSI) reading of around 53 reflects the same neutral sentiment in the market.
Nonetheless, XRP/USD is trading above the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting that the market is slightly tilted toward the bulls. Coupling it with the similarity in the Bollinger Bandwidth contraction of the 2016-2017 session, the indicator raises the possibility of another substantial price movement.
Interestingly, XRP’s giant symmetrical triangle might be hinting at the same, indicating upside continuation if it forms after a strong price rally.
The breakout target of a symmetrical triangle is obtained by measured the maximum distance between its upper and lower trendlines and adding it to the breakout point. Applying the same to XRP's monthly chart brings its upside target to $14.75, up about 2,200% from the current price levels.
From a fundamental perspective, the narratives that may accompany XRP's upside moves include potential crypto-friendly regulations in the United States if Donald Trump is reelected and the conclusion of the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit.
Nonetheless, an XRP breakout scenario may take months to play out, likely after its triangle’s upper and lower trendlines converge in August 2025. In the meantime, any decisive breakdown below the lower trendline risks invalidating the long-term bullish scenario.
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Bitcoin pushes toward $70K — just 6% needed for new all-time high
Bitcoin closed in on the $70,000 mark on July 29, posting a seven-week high and falling short of its all-time high by around 6%.
Bitcoin prices tapped $69,775 during Asia trading hours on July 29, according to TradingView.
This brought the asset to within 5.7% of its all-time high of $73,757, which occurred four and a half months ago on March 14.
It is the highest Bitcoin has traded since June 13, when it hit $70,000 but found resistance and retreated.
Analyst “Titan of Crypto” told his 86,000 X followers on July 27 that Bitcoin at $110,000 “is programmed” as the asset is “breaking out from the handle” of a cup and handle chart pattern.
Recent Bitcoin positive sentiment has been driven by two United States presidential candidates and a prominent Republican Party senator at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, which ran from July 25–27.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Senator Cynthia Lummis spoke about establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the US, while former President Donald Trump said the government wouldn’t sell anymore if he got elected. Should this come to pass, it could apply a lot of buying pressure and a potential supply shock to BTC markets.
Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose just 0.1% in June, increasing confidence in an interest rate cut in September as inflation comes under control.
There will also be a Federal Reserve meeting on July 31, during which another rate decision is expected.
However, the market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged. CME Group predicts odds of 95.9% that rates will remain at 5.25% to 5.5%.
Signals are strengthening for a rate cut in September, with the odds at 85.8% for a cut to 5.0% to 5.25%, which would be the first reduction since March 2020.
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Bitcoin hits 16-month high 'positive sentiment' as price sits near $68K
Bitcoin’s recent price rebound has shifted traders' sentiment to levels not seen in 16 months, according to data tracking positive and negative social media comments about Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin's +20% 3-week price rally has left traders feeling a whole lot more bullish than they were at the beginning of the month,” Santiment wrote in a July 27 X post, as Bitcoin currently trades at $67,708, up 6.22% since July 25, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Santiment explained that its Weighted Sentiment Index — a metric that measures Bitcoin mentions on X and compares the ratio of positive to negative comments — is at a “16-month high positive sentiment.”
“The ratio of positive vs. negative comments toward BTC has launched to its highest level since March 2023 as an all-time high is back on radars,” it added.
Sentiment spikes with anticipation building ahead of Trump's Bitcoin 2024 speech
The spike in positive sentiment comes as anticipation has been building over the past few weeks for former US President Donald Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville on July 27, where he declared his goal to make the US the “Crypto capital of the world.”
He predicted that "one day" Bitcoin would overtake gold, gushing that "Bitcoin is not just a marvel of technology, as you know it's a miracle of cooperation and human achievement."
Immediately following his speech, pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill for a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," proposing that the US government buy 5% of the world’s Bitcoin supply and hold it for at least 20 years.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index showed a “Greed” score of 71, up 24 points since June 28.
Index quickly rebounds from flashing red
Meanwhile, it was only a month ago that the Weighted Sentiment Index was showing a surge in negative comments about Bitcoin while its price was 4% lower, trading around $65,000 on June 21.
“This extended level of FUD is rare, as traders continue to capitulate,” Santiment wrote in a June 20 X post.
“The crowd is mainly fearful or disinterested toward Bitcoin as prices range between $65K to $66K,” it added.
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President Trump: "Bitcoin can possibly overtake the market cap of gold. What do you think will happen when people figure that out?"
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ETH ETFs launched in ‘weak market’ and could pressure Bitcoin: Analyst
A Bitcoin analyst thinks spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may have launched too early and could pose a risk to Bitcoin’s price if no new capital comes into the market.
“It would have been better to only have the BTC ETF in 2024,” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards told. He argues that the new Ether ETF will only distract investors who have been invested in Bitcoin.
“Current BTC ETF holders at the institutional level likely think they should diversify a little and buy the ETF ETF. Without new flows into the whole market, this creates sell pressure on Bitcoin,” Edwards argued.
Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched on Jan. 11, approximately $17.53 billion has flowed into the 11 products, according to Farside data.
Since Ether ETFs launched on July 23, Bitcoin’s dominance has remained fairly stable, up 0.07% over the past 24 hours, according to TradingView data.
While spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $78 million on July 23 — the debut trading day of spot Ether ETFs — the following two days have seen inflows of $44.5 million and $31.1 million respectively.
Still, Edwards believes that “launching an ETH ETF into a somewhat weak market, or definitely not a strong one,” means there is uncertainty about capital allocation.
He also foresees “no strong catalysts in the near term for large price appreciation.”
At the time of publication, Ether’s price has dropped 9.2% since spot Ether ETFs launched on July 23, trading at $3,178, as per CoinMarketCap data.
Ether’s value has declined slightly more against Bitcoin, having declined by 10.4% across the past seven days.
Future traders do not anticipate a sudden recovery either, with $1.32 billion in short positions at risk if the price rebounds to $3,500, according to CoinGlass.
However, other crypto analysts agree with Edwards that this “could look very different in a few weeks.”
“As with Bitcoin, the start of trading of spot ETH ETFs seems to have been a sell-the-news event,” CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote in a July 25 X post. Also similar to Bitcoin, analysts blame the Grayscale Ethereum Trust for the price decline.
“Once this massive amount of outflow stagnates or goes sub $100 million, the markets are reversing up,” MN Trading founder Michael van de Pope added.
“Ethereum is following the exact same trajectory as Bitcoin after the ETF was approved,” crypto commentator Croissant told their 116,600 X followers.
“The hype looks like it was priced in. One last sweep of the range lows prior to sending to price discovery is still the game plan from here,” crypto trader Kaleo added.
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