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Bitcoin whales go on 'unprecedented' $23B July buying spree — New data
Bitcoin whales are “clearly accumulating” as BTC price continues to trade below all-time highs, says onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
In an X post on July 24, CEO Ki Young Ju called the flow of coins to large-volume investors “unprecedented.”
Bitcoin whales add 358,000 BTC in July
Bitcoin’s “permanent holders” are buying in big at current BTC price levels.
Analyzing the 30-day rolling balance change for permanent holder addresses, Ki revealed a wealth transfer arguably unlike anything seen in crypto market history.
“Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase,” he summarized.
“Over the past month, 358K BTC has moved to permanent holder addresses.”
Those purchases, equal to around $23 billion at the time of writing on July 24, beat all others in BTC terms, including the period during which BTC/USD hit its current all-time highs of $73,800 in March.
As reported, Bitcoin’s long-term holders, defined as entities hodling a given amount for 155 days or more, have broadly refused to sell this year, regardless of short-term price trends.
Continuing, Ki referenced the ongoing success of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as vehicles for institutional BTC exposure.
“In July, global spot ETF inflows were 53K BTC,” he noted.
The largest such ETF in the United States topped $500 million in inflows in a single day this week. At the same time, however, analysis warned that such large tallies have tended to precede periods of corrective BTC price behavior.
This week’s launch of spot Ether ETFs further clouded the narrative, with crypto markets seeing a marked comedown on their second day of trading.
Largest players "furiously accumulating"
When it comes to long-term accumulation trends, however, Ki is optimistic.
“Though not all remaining BTC is in custody wallets, whales are clearly accumulating,” he concluded.
“And it's an unprecedented level.”
Others joined him, including popular trader and social media commentator Bitcoin Munger, who uploaded data to X showing the largest whale cohort “furiously accumulating.”
Only the smallest class of BTC hodler, with 1 BTC or less, is doing the opposite, it showed.
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Traders see ETH’s $3.2K pullback as a ‘buy’ while ETFs build steam
Traders suggest that Ether’s price falling to $3,209 has now put it in “buy” territory but warn it may not last once the “tremendous” impact of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) come into effect.
“There are 2 major zones to buy,” pseudonymous crypto trader Sheldon The Sniper told their 490,300 X followers in a July 24 X post. He pointed to $3,300 and below as the current buy zone and added that the $3,097 buy zone has already passed.
Sheldon further predicted that Ether could reach$4,000 “in the next week or two,” reiterating their two suggested entry points as the “ones you ride to the next all-time high breaks.”
Ether is currently trading at $3,209 at the time of publication, down 7.68% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The price has dipped another level below the closely watched $3,500 mark, around which Ether has been fluctuating since March 1, following spot Ether ETF trading debut that saw $107 million in net inflows.
However, future traders were expecting a larger price drop after the debut of Ether ETF trading. The 7.68% decline liquidated $42.53 million in short positions, along with just $2 million in long positions, according to CoinGlass data.
Analysts expect big gains for Ether’s price
Ether is going to experience “tremendous” price action from ETF inflows, similar to what happened with Bitcoin following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, when its price jumped from $40,000 to $70,000 following the launch, Michael van de Pope explained in a July 24 analyst note.
Van de Pope doesn’t rule out Ether doubling its price in the near term, either.
“Probably it’s very likely to suspect that a price rally from $3,500 to $7,000-7,500 is on the cards,” he added, predicting that the aftermath of the ETF launch may lead to short-term volatility.
“One-two weeks for downward momentum before the real surge of Ethereum toward a new all-time high."
Swyftx lead market analyst Pav Hundal recently told Cointelegraph he believes the “nearer-term goal” is for Ether to hit its November 2021 all-time high of $4,890.
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ETH traders should now ‘expect the unexpected’ after ETF launch
Despite barely budging afte spot Ether funds’ debut trading day, the price of ETH could still be set for unprecedented highs this year, according to a crypto market analyst.
“People should expect the unexpected, if the Ethereum community is looking for another reason to put it back in the spotlight, it has all the elements to rally like it has never seen before,” Swyftx lead market analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.
“Everyone is looking for any good news moment,” he added.
He listed off the large amount of Ether currently being staked — meaning it cannot be sold and is tightening supply — along with the recent launch of ETFs as two of the main elements, but also the positive sentiment in the options market.
“It is still more bullish than bearish. The put-call ratio, which is looking at speculators betting for upside, is 0.27, which is very, very bullish,” he pointed out.
Hundal was reluctant to specify an exact price prediction but believes the “nearer-term goal” is for Ether to regain its all-time high, which was set at $4,890 in November 2021.
However, he anticipates that its price “might be choppy” for the next 30 days. At the time of publication, Ether is trading at $3,450, down 1.27% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Spot Ether ETFs debut on Tuesday saw $106.6 million in net inflows, though the price of Ether barely moved, dropping slightly by 0.42% over the past 24 hours.
“No fireworks for the price of Ether, although the first Ether ETFs got off to a good start today,” markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz wrote in an X post.
Investors appear to have seen the ETFs’ launch as a good time to scoop up Ether.
On July 22, a day before the ETFs began trading, permanent holder addresses inflowed 714,000 ETH, valued at $2.4 billion, an all-time high.
Meanwhile, Hundal says traders might as well “ignore Ethereum’s previous prices” before the Ethereum Merge, as the event gave Ether more robust supply and demand mechanics.
“Ever since deflationary mechanics was introduced, more deflationary elements on the product, a self-governing proof-of-stake, now when the market is busy, less Ethereum is being created,” he explained.
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XRP price hasn’t seen $1 since 2021 — But this could change in Q4
The XRP market is well-positioned for a price surge between now and October, driven by a potential breakout on the charts, whale activity, and the end of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC. In doing so, the XRP/USD pair could finally see values near or above $1, a level it hasn’t attained since 2021.
XRP price nears long-awaited technical breakout
XRP’s weekly chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming since early 2018, characterized by converging trendlines that compress price action.
The cryptocurrency is testing the pattern’s upper trendline resistance, eyeing a successful breakout to pursue a run-up toward the next major resistance level at around $1 in the coming months. Howver, it would need to cross above $0.86—up around 45% from the current prices—which has historically acted as a significant barrier, most notably in January-March 2022 and July 2023.
Other technical indicators support this bullish outlook. For instance, the weekly chart’s relative strength index (RSI) is rebounding from the 50 level, suggesting increasing buying momentum. Moreover, the volume profile indicates rising trading activity, often a precursor to a sustained price movement.
XRP whale accumulation boosts upside prospects
On-chain data from Santiment shows that most XRP whale cohorts have been accumulating the token in recent weeks.
For instance, the XRP supply held by its richest cohort—those holding over 1 billion native tokens (black)—has increased to 41.44% from 40.27% in 2024. That corresponds with a slight dip in the 100 million—1 billion XRP balance cohort (teal).
More recently, other whale cohorts have also picked up momentum in accumulation, namely those holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP tokens (brown).
Accumulation among these high-value cohorts is often a bullish signal. Large investors typically increase their holdings when they anticipate higher prices in the future while leveraging their market influence to facilitate this.
Ripple vs. SEC potential settlement
The long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be nearing its conclusion.
In 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security when sold on digital asset exchanges, marking a partial victory for Ripple. However, XRP is still considered a security when sold to institutional investors, meeting the conditions of the Howey test.
Significantly, a recent meeting between Ripple and the SEC has been rescheduled to July 25, 2024. This meeting is expected to discuss potential settlements.
Analysts believe that a favorable settlement could boost XRP's price. Furthermore, the potential approval of an XRP-spot ETF should further drive market interest and price.
Despite these optimistic signs, some legal experts remain cautious.
Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a settlement, suggesting that the case might continue through the legal process. However, Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse is optimistic that a resolution could be reached before the end of summer 2024.
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Ether price may dip after ETF 'novelty' wears off due to surging supply
Ethereum’s price might decline after the initial buzz surrounding spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) wears off if its supply continues to increase at the current rate, according to an analyst.
“If the supply of ETH keeps increasing by ~60k/month like it has been since April, then by Dec the supply will be back to what it was at the merge,” crypto trader and Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen wrote in a July 19 X post, referring to when the much-anticipated Merge transitioned Ethereum to its current proof-of-stake consensus model in September 2022.
Ethereum, which became deflationary after the Merge, saw its supply drop by approximately 455,000 ETH by April 2024.
However, since then, the supply has increased by around 150,000 ETH. Cowen claims that if it continues to increase at this rate, it might revert to what it was prior to the Merge happening over two years ago.
“If the supply of ETH keeps increasing at 60,000 ETH per month, then we will see the supply revert to what it was back at the merge,” Cowen stated.
“If it follows 2016, then ETH/BTC final capitulation will not start until September 2024, which would be enough time for the novelty of the spot ETF relative to BTC to potentially wear off,” he added.
While he believes that in 1.5 years the price of Ether will "likely be higher" than its current price, there is a “decent chance” that it declines within the next “3-6 months.” At the time of publication, Ether is trading at $3,507, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Meanwhile, just a few days prior, onchain analyst Leon Waidmann pointed out that Ethereum is facing a “supply crisis."
"Exchange balances down to 10.2% while 39.3% of ETH is locked in smart contracts," Waidmann stated in a July 16 X post, claiming that most investors don't realize "how tight" the ETH supply side is.
Five spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) will begin trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on July 23, “pending regulatory effectiveness,” CBOE announced on July 19.
On May 23, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved rule changespermitting the listing of several spot Ether (ETH) ETFs.
The five spot Ether ETFs set to commence trading are the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, VanEck Ethereum ETF, and Franklin Ethereum ETF.
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Bitcoin price gets 'interesting' as triple candle close sees $61.5K return
Bitcoin upped volatility on June 30 as traders prepared for “interesting” BTC price moves.
Bitcoin bids at the ready below $60,000
Data followed BTC/USD as it hit intraday highs of $61,668 on Bitstamp.
The pair recovered from local lows of $59,950 the day prior, these marking a fresh dip below the key $60,000 mark amid a feeling of uncertainty over BTC price support.
Now, bids were appearing under spot price with hours to go until the weekly, monthly and quarterly candle close.
“$500M+ in bids were placed below price (but mostly pulled) and open interest going up,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in a post on X(formerly Twitter) covering order book liquidity shifts.
“Doubt we'll get our usual weekend price action as mentioned. Quite a lot of action relatively speaking. End of the quarter usually causes some interesting moves.”
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlassshowed $60,583 as the key downside liquidity level, with a cloud of bids extending toward $59,500.
Liquidity to the upside meanwhile shifted higher as price headed beyond $61,600 on the day.
Despite being down 2.6% week-to-date, meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, was optimistic about price performance.
“A pretty decent weekly candle for Bitcoin is approaching here,” he told X followers.
“I would expect the correction to be relatively over. We didn't get the most obvious deep corrections in previous cycles either.”
An accompanying chart put the bottom for BTC/USD during its trip to $56,500 at the start of May.
Q2 performance overall remained weak, however, with Bitcoin down 13.8%, with June responsible for 8.9% losses.
Trader delays $95,000 BTC price bet
Elsewhere, ongoing sluggish performance cost one Bitcoin bull his near-term BTC price target.
Acknowledging that the outcome was no longer likely, popular trader BitQuant called time on his expectations of BTC/USD imminently hitting $95,000.
“I was wrong predicting Bitcoin's local top at $49K because Bitcoin reached $48,955, not $49K. I was wrong calling a local top at $75K in January because, first, BTC never reached $75K but reversed at $74,680, and second, it only got there in March. I was wrong then, and I’m wrong now predicting BTC at $95K,” he summarized.
BitQuant nonetheless argued that “nothing has changed” fundamentally, and that at some point, Bitcoin would climb to target.
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New South Korea Rule Ensures Customer Refunds in Crypto Exchange Bankruptcies
Crypto investors in South Korea will have more peace of mind starting next month, thanks to new rules that protect users’ balances in case of a crypto exchange bankruptcy.
The Financial Services Commission (FSC) on Tuesday announced that the government approved an enforcement decree aiming to boost confidence in the country’s digital asset market.
The recently passed virtual asset proposals offer more than just safety nets for user balances during exchange failures. They represent a wider effort to regulate the crypto space in South Korea. Effective July 19, these measures will clearly define and categorize virtual assets. They will also establish mechanisms to tackle unfair trading practices.
New South Korea Rules Shield Crypto User Deposits
Under the decree, VASPs (Virtual Asset Service Providers) will be required to hold customer deposits at reputable financial institutions, separate from their own company funds. This move aims to minimize risks associated with exchange insolvency and enhance user trust in the Korean crypto market.
If a VASP faces bankruptcy or closure, the custodian bank will step in. It will have to directly return user deposits to customers after publicly announcing the process through newspapers and websites.
Focus on Offline Storage of User Assets
VASPs will now be required to store at least 80% of their users’ digital assets in cold storage. Cold storage refers to offline, high-security systems that minimize the risk of hacking or loss.
Additionally, the authorities can mandate an even stricter cold storage ratio for a specific VASP if there are concerns about security breaches, fraudulent activity, or potential business closure.
New Korean Law Means Tough Penalties for Fraud
The decree also cracks down on manipulative activities in the crypto market, with serious consequences for those caught cheating. Abusing the system to make money unfairly can now lead to criminal charges and hefty fines. Criminals could face at least a year behind bars, or be fined up to five times the amount of their ill-gotten gains.
This month, a court upheld a 10-year prison sentence for a South Korean crypto fraudster Wi, who exploited hundreds of investors out of $82.6m. Wi’s scheme involved luring victims with the promise of “guaranteed” returns, a tactic that ultimately landed him in hot water.
The new rules also grant VASPs the authority to restrict user deposits and withdrawals under specific circumstances.
Millions Seized in Recent Crackdowns
While South Korea has yet to officially tax crypto profits, the government’s back-and-forth on introducing levies has created uncertainty. Tax authorities, however, remain vigilant, suspecting many are using crypto as a tool to conceal income.
Just this month, a province seized roughly $138,000 worth of cryptocurrency from 31 suspected tax evaders. In March, tax authorities in Hwaseong seized crypto assets valued at more than $768,500.
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Bitcoin taps $62K as 6% BTC price rebound runs into stubborn US dollar
Bitcoin returned to $62,000 on June 25 as markets slowly clawed back lost ground from the weekly open.
BTC price tests 200-day trendline as market bounces
Data showed BTC price strength staging a tentative recovery after the Wall Street open.
Bulls had suffered the day prior, as a trip to seven-week lows of $58,500 sparked a cascade of capitulations.
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading on 4-hour timeframes hit its lowest levels since August 2023 — also the last time that BTC/USD also gave up bull market support lines such as the short-term holder aggregate cost basis.
“Range held where it needed to,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades confirmed in one of his latest updates on X (formerly Twitter).
“Yesterday was the largest net selling day in Bitcoin in over a year. RSI levels also hit levels not seen in a year.”
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put total BTC long liquidations for June 24 at just under $150 million.
“Massive liquidity zone at $65K and all the way up to that point,” Daan Crypto Trades continued.
“I think that would be a good level in the short term to target and see how the market looks by then. Invalidation is losing the range low at ~59K.”
Talk of the psychological — if not physical — impact of the Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings continued to circulate.
"We think there will continue to be selling pressure in the market as markets try to digest what 140,000 BTC means for markets and prices that in," trading firm QCP Capital wrote on the topic in part of its latest update to Telegram channel subscribers.
"Existing Mt Gox creditors are probably unhedged given how expensive it is to hold perp positions and option positions for long periods of time."
QCP noted that BTC price had bounced near its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at almost exactly $58,000. The last time BTC/USD traded below that trendline was in October
Bitcoin squares off with U.S. dollar
Fellow trader Skew nonetheless warned of ongoing strength for the U.S. dollar — traditionally a headwind for risk assets and crypto — and suggested that this would continue in the short term.
Applying Elliott Wave theory to the U.S. dollar index (DXY), however, Matthew Dixon, CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, argued that the picture was conversely bearish for dollar bulls.
“A valid 5 waves down for DXY is a very promising sign for BTC & Crypto,” he commented on the 15-minute chart.
“If we now get a three wave retracement, ideally to around the 0.618 Fib then we would expect a further 5 waves down as a minimum, which would give risk assets a further boost.”
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Mt. Gox still has 90,000 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $6 billion
Mt. Gox still has a whopping 90,000 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $6 billion, as investors and speculators weigh the effects the sell-off will have on the Bitcoin market.
Data from Arkham Intelligence indicates the last transaction made from Mt. Gox occurred on July 24, 2024, at 06:50:05 UTC and contained roughly 382 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $25 million, sent to Bitstamp.
Mt. Gox sell-off triggers fear, uncertainty, and doubt
News of the Mt. Gox sell-off has created fear, uncertainty, and doubt among market participants during the last several weeks, with the $8.2 billion question coming down to whether or not the Mt. Gox creditors, who have been waiting over 10 years for reimbursement, will sell their holdings.
According to a recent Reddit poll conducted in the Mt. Gox insolvency subreddit, 56% of the 467 creditors polled do not plan on selling their Bitcoin holdings, while 20%, or 88 individuals, plan to sell their holdings. The remaining respondents indicated they plan on selling a portion of their Bitcoin while choosing to hold the remainder.
The findings of the Reddit poll were further corroborated by data from CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju. The quantitative analyst explained that following the distribution of funds to Kraken users on July 23, 2024 "There has been no significant spike in hourly spot trading volume dominance or BTC outflows on Kraken."
Onchain analyst RunnerXBT echoed a similar sentiment, explaining that only those traders with "paper hands" will sell their Bitcoin reimbursement funds and contribute to selling pressure, while those who understand the value of the scarce decentralized asset will continue to hold their funds.
However, financial analyst Jacob King disagrees with this analysis, arguing that up to 99% of the Mt. Gox creditors will sell their Bitcoin, driving Bitcoin's price into bear market territory due to the massive selling pressure and low organic demand.
Bitcoin's price action
Despite the billions in potential sell pressure coming from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy reimbursements, the price of Bitcoin has been fairly resilient.
Following a bevy of political developments, Bitcoin hit a recent high of around $68,000 and is currently trading at around $65,000 despite the ongoing Mt. Gox reimbursement.
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Ferrari to launch crypto payments in Europe after US success
Ferrari, the Italian luxury sports car producer, is preparing to expand its cryptocurrency payment system to Europe following a successful launch in the United States.
Ferrari will extend its crypto payment feature to its network of European dealers from the end of July 2024, the firm officially announced on July 24.
At the time of the announcement, most of Ferrari's European dealers had already adopted or were in the process of adopting the new payment system that adds to the traditional ones, the firm said, adding:
“By the end of 2024, Ferrari will expand cryptocurrency transactions to other countries in its international dealer network, where cryptocurrencies are legally accepted.”
EU entry follows Ferrari’s US crypto payment rollout
Ferrari's entry into the European market follows the successful launch of the crypto payment system in the US in October 2023.
In order to enable crypto payments in the United States, Ferrari initially partnered with BitPay, a major local crypto payment firm that serves global brands like AMC Theaters, the electronics retailer Newegg and others.
In its latest announcement, Ferrari emphasized that its crypto payment tools do not require dealers to manage cryptocurrencies directly. Instead, customers’ cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will immediately be automatically converted into fiat currencies.
“The providers’ solutions will also allow for the verification of the source of funds and protect transactions from price fluctuations related to exchange rates,” Ferrari noted.
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Ethereum price will be ‘sensitive’ to ETF inflows in the coming days — Kaiko
The price of Ether will likely be “sensitive” to spot ETF inflows in the coming days as investors will remember the lackluster demand for futures products in late 2023, says crypto analytics firm Kaiko.
“The launch of the futures-based ETH ETFs in the US late last year was met with underwhelming demand, all eyes are on the spot ETFs’ launch with high hopes on quick asset accumulation,” said Kaiko’s head of indexes Will Cai in a July 22 market report.
“Although a full demand picture may not emerge for several months, ETH price could be sensitive to inflow numbers of the first days.”
Several spot Ether ETFs received final approval on July 22 and are set to start trading on July 23.
Cai said one of the most obvious impacts on price is expected to come from “potential” outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE).
Much like Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, ETHE is a fund that offers institutional investors exposure to ETH. However, it enforces a six-month lock-up period on its shares.
The conversion of ETHE to a spot ETF will allow traders to buy and sell more easily, meaning that many investors who purchased ETHE shares will likely look to cash out once trading begins on July 23.
“ETHE’s discount to net asset value closed over the past few weeks, after widening between February and May as hopes of approval waned,” Cai said, adding:
“The narrowing discount suggests traders bought ETHE below par and will redeem these shares at NAV [net asset value] price on conversion to realize profits.”
Some expect ETH ETFs to underwhelm
While spot Bitcoin ETFs significantly impacted price in the months following their launch, there’s less confidence that Ether ETFs will be as popular.
Crypto market maker Wintermute wrote in a July 21 research report that it expects Ethereum ETFs to generate between $3.2 billion and $4 billion of inflows in their first year of trading.
“Our view is the ETFs will likely see lower-than-anticipated demand, closer to $3.2 to $4 billion,” wrote Wintermute.
Meanwhile, the firm predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will generate roughly $32 billion in assets before the end of 2024, putting its estimates of total first-year inflows into the ETH ETFs at around 10% to 12% of spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Wintermute expects the price of ETH to rise no more than 24% by the end of 2024.
Meanwhile, boutique crypto asset firm ASXN provided a more bullish outlook in a July 22 X post, predicting an average monthly inflow of between $800 million and $1.2 billion into ETH ETFs.
ASXN added that it expects the price impact of ETHE outflows to be less dramatic than the market fears due to a tightening and dynamic discount premium to net asset value and the launch of Grayscale’s mini ETH ETF, which they predict will subdue outflow pressure.
“We are open to an upside surprise given the unique dynamics of ETHE trading at par prior to the launch and the introduction of the mini trust,” wrote AXN.
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BlackRock’s IBIT records biggest inflow day since March at $523M
BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has notched its biggest day of inflows in over four months, with over $523 million entering the fund on Monday.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) scooped up 7,759 Bitcoin on July 22 — worth just over $523 million at current prices — according to Hey Apollo data cited by its co-founder in a July 23 postto X.
The July 22 addition brings the total sum of inflows into BlackRock’s fund to 333,000 BTC which equates to $22 billion at current prices.
It marks the seventh-largest day on record for inflows into IBIT in US dolla
IBIT witnessed its largest single day of inflows on March 18, when $849 million worth of BTC was added to the fund.
The second-largest day on record occurred on March 5, when the fund saw $788 million in inflows, per FarSide investor data.
The massive day for BlackRock’s fund came on the same day that a roster of spot Ether ETFs was approved for trading in the US.
Industry analysts expect spot Ether ETFs to generate 10% to 20% of the flows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have been generating following their launch in January.
Meanwhile, several analysts who spoke on July 21 are bullish on Bitcoin in the short to mid-term, citing Biden’s last-minute dropout from the presidential race and Trump’s heightened odds of an election victory as strong upside catalysts for the price of Bitcoin.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen speculated there was a solid chance Republican nominee Donald Trump could make a surprise announcement that he would make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset at the upcoming Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on July 25.
Thielen said this could trigger a “parabolic” move for the price of Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
Bryan Courchesne, the founder of crypto asset management firm DAIM echoed this prediction on July 22, saying there was a good possibility of Trumpenshrining BTC as a strategic reserve asset at the conference.
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Bitcoin trader sees 2 months to all-time high as China cuts key rates
Bitcoin aimed for $68,000 at the July 22 Wall Street open as a Chinese interest rate cut added to bullish crypto catalysts.
China enacts "unexpected" rate cuts
Data showed BTC price moves targeting range highs after a dip below $67,000 earlier in the day.
The upward reversion came amid mixed performances from Asia stocks as China cut several key interest rates in a step that “surprised markets.”
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) confirmed that it would cut the seven-day reverse repo rate by 0.1% to 1.7%, while the one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) followed suit, sources including Reuters reported.
“The cut today is an unexpected move, likely due to the sharp slowdown in growth momentum in the second quarter as well as the call for 'achieving this year's growth target' by the third plenum,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at global financial services firm Macquarie Group, told the publication.
Reacting, markets commentator Holger Zchaepitz noted that it had been almost a year since the last Chinese rate cut.
“Chinese stock market not really enthusiastic,” he wrote in part of a post on X.
Global interest rates heading lower is a key ingredient for risk asset performance, including crypto. As Cointelegraph reported, the United States has yet to follow China and Europe in beginning a rate cut cycle, with markets expecting this to begin in September.
Adopting a more conservative stance, popular crypto and macro commentator TMXC Trades suggested that China’s select cuts would not have the desired effect.
“Coming into 2024, traders were betting on a massive coordinated global easing cycle (after they totally underestimated hikes) that would reverse half or more of all tightening. Here today in mid-July, virtually none of that has come to pass,” it concluded.
Bitcoin traders boost talk of all-time highs
Bitcoin itself meanwhile stood before the last cluster of resistance before all-time highs, this including the $69,000 level in play since late 2021.
“Bitcoin has cancelled out almost the entirety of the -25.6% retrace,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted in his latest X analysis.
“It took two weeks to almost fully cancel out a five week retrace.”
An accompanying chart compared recent BTC price behavior to other retracements over the bull market, calculating the latest as the uptrend’s deepest.
“Any dips to retest $65,000 would not be out of the ordinary but generally such Weekly Closes have preceded upside to $71,500,” another post continued.
Rekt Capital reiterated the case for new all-time highs in September “at the latest.”
“Bitcoin is back in the range and provides a lot of strength,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, added on the day.
Van de Poppe flagged $65,000 as an important level to hold as support going forward, with the range lows at around $61,000 as the next line of defense below.
“If that's going to happen this week, then we should be good for continuation toward the ATH,” he predicted.
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Binance Report Shows Downturn in Crypto Market Total Capitalization
A new Binance study has looked into the recent downturn in the total crypto market capitalization and the structural factors plaguing the sector. Although the market has partially recovered from the sharp decline, it’s still 14% below its peak in March.
Why the Crypto Market’s Market Cap Witnessed a Downturn in Recent Months
The Binance report revealed that the crypto market’s total market capitalization in June witnessed a disastrous downturn of 11.4%, which was around the time of Bitcoin selling pressure from German and US governments.
Recall that the German government offloaded 50,000 BTC confiscated from the operator of the Movie2k website. The Bitcoin holdings were sold in batches, starting on June 19 and ended after the government moved the remaining 3,846 Bitcoin on July 12.
Similarly, the United States government’s movement of 3,940 BTC on June 26 and Mt. Gox’s plan to distribute Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash for creditor repayments, which started on July 5, worsened the situation.
Meanwhile, the Binance report highlighted another eye-opening fact about the crypto market’s structural weakness.
The researchers created a framework titled “Capital, People, and Technology (CPT)” to analyze the market forces affecting the crypto market. They argue that this framework indicates a steady but slow decline in capital inflows into the market.
As a result, crypto market firms may face increased competition for limited returns, potentially leading to a situation where one firm’s gain comes at the expense of another. This competition may contribute to market disturbances, including the reduction of stablecoin supply, decreased exchange liquidity and more.
Getting the Crypto Market on the Path of Recovery
Despite the turbulence and downturn that the crypto market and its market cap have faced, there might still be a glimmer of hope.
The Binance report shows that there are certain positive catalysts that could drive the crypto market on a path of recovery, which could see its market cap exceed the peak it achieved back in March.
These catalysts include altering macroeconomic indicators, such as slowly reducing inflation and cutting interest rates so that the crypto market can be revived, thereby driving up its market cap.
The report also talks about the introduction of new capital flows as a positive catalyst that can provide a gradual recovery for the crypto market.
The crypto market could witness new capital flows on July 23 once the supply of stablecoins increases and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) get approved for trading on major exchanges.
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Can ETH price crack $3.5K? Ethereum ETF debut will precede new highs, analysts say
Ether price could be on track to reach a new all-time high as the industry is about to witness the launch of the first spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could occur as soon as next week.
Ether could hit a new all-time high after next week’s ETH ETF launch
Ether price could be on track to a new all-time high after the launch of the first US spot Ether ETFs, according to Matt Hougan, the CIO of Bitwise.
Hougan cited three main reasons for Ether reaching a new all-time high, including ETH’s Inflation Rate, the fact that Ether stakers aren’t selling like Bitcoin (BTC) miners, and that 28% of Ether supply is already out of the market.
In a July 16 blog post, Hougan wrote:
“Ethereum’s inflation rate over the past year is exactly 0%... Significant new demand meets 0% new supply? I like that math. And if activity on Ethereum ticks up, so does the amount of ETH being consumed. That's another lever of organic demand working in investors' favor.”
Other factors also point to an incoming rally, including the number of Ether withdrawals from centralized exchanges, according to crypto analyst Leon Waidmann.
The analyst wrote in a July 19 X post:
“$126M worth of #ETH was withdrawn from exchanges this week, signaling massive accumulation ahead of the ETF launch. Next big $ETH rally incoming.”
$3,500 remains formidable resistance
However, Ether futures suggest little confidence in the chance of Ether breaking above the $4,000 mark in the short term, as the $3,500 mark remains a significant resistance zone.
Ether’s relative strength index (RSI) also suggests that Ether's price needs to cool down before rallying to a new all-time high. On the daily chart, Ether’s RSI rose to 58, which suggests that the asset is not yet overbought, but is trading above its fair value, according to TradingView data.
The RSI is a popular momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is oversold or overbought based on the magnitude of recent price changes.
Ethereum shakeout could happen first
Ether price could first see a sell-the-news event after the initial ETF launch before starting its sustained rally toward new all-time highs.
Hence, the real opportunity to invest in Ether long term could come after the first few weeks of the ETF debut, according to Alvin Kan, COO, Bitget Wallet.
Kan told:
“Similar to how the market reacted when BTC spot ETF got approved, we expect ETH to jump in price for a short time after its own ETF gets the green light. However, there might be followed by some selling pressure for a week or two afterward, as a result of outflows from instruments like Grayscale's ETF.”
Eth price will be able to climb in a more sustained manner after the initial shakeout, added Kan:
“Once this initial shakeout is over, the price of ETH could start to climb steadily each month, depending on the daily inflows into the new ETH spot ETF.”
Other analysts expect the Ether ETF to have wider ramifications on the altcoin market. For instance, popular crypto trader Mikybull expects the ETFs to catalyze the next altcoin bull market cycle.
The trader wrote in a July 19 X post:
“ETH ETFs will be the major catalyst for a massive rally sparking a huge Alts season in this cycle.”
Ether price rallied over 11% during the past week, but ETH is still trading 29% below its old all-time high of $4,890 reached in November 2021.
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Vitalik Buterin says crypto regulations have created ‘anarcho-tyranny’
Ethereum’s outspoken co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, recently expressed his frustration over the current state of cryptocurrency regulation and offered up a surefire solution to the problem.
Responding to a user on Warpcast, a social media platform built on the Farcaster protocol, Buterin described a situation where current regulatory efforts have essentially painted good-faith cryptocurrency developers into a corner:
“The main challenge with crypto regulation (esp in the US) has always been this phenomenon where if you do something useless, or something where you’re asking people to give you money in exchange for vague references to potential returns at best, you are free and clear, but if you try to give your customers a clear story of where returns come from, and promises about what rights they have, then you’re screwed because you’re “a security.” The incentive gradient that this "anarcho-tyranny” creates ends up worse for the space than either plain anarchy or plain tyranny.”
On the anarchy side of things, there appears to be no end to the glut of bad actors, scammers, and baseless hypesters proliferating on social media and sharing platforms.
Buterin previously conjured three recommendations purported to be able to solve the problem of “useless” cryptocurrency products and services.
These recommendations include limiting leverage, requiring audits and transparency, and gating usage with knowledge tests.
While it’s unclear how cryptocurrency knowledge tests could be implemented at a regulatory level or administered at the individual or corporate level, it would likely be a matter of policy to place limits on cryptocurrency project leverage and institute auditing and transparency reporting requirements.
Unfortunately, the cryptocurrency community's sentiment seems to be that the U.S. has both an outsized number of cryptocurrency users and an approach to cryptocurrency regulation that could best be described as nebulous or uneven.
Buterin says that rather than offer the most protections to companies and projects without a long-term vision or plan, he would “much rather see us move to the opposite situation, where issuing a token without giving a clear long-term story for why it will maintain or increase in economic value is the riskier thing.”
However, Buterin also alluded that implementing regulations that serve the cryptocurrency industry is only part of the battle:
"Actually getting to this will require good-faith engagement, both from regulators and from industry.”
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Bitcoin’s price won’t ‘dramatically’ increase from here, says billionaire
Former PayPal CEO Peter Thiel has raised doubts that Bitcoin’s future price can increase “dramatically” from current price levels.
The billionaire — who still owns “some” Bitcoin but not as much as he “should have” — isn’t sure where the next batch of buyers will come from now that Bitcoin has had its “ETF edition.”
“I'm not sure it's going to go up that dramatically from here. We got the ETF edition and I don't know who else buys it,” Thiel, a founder at the Founders Fund told CNBC on June 28.
“It probably still can go up some but it’s going to be a volatile, bumpy ride.”
Thiel previously said he was “underinvested” in Bitcoin back in October, 2021, when the cryptocurrency was rallying towards its previous all-time high of $69,000 set about three weeks later.
However, Thiel’s Founders Fund has a rather impressive history with Bitcoin — having made its first Bitcoin investment in 2014 and profited $1.8 billion shortly before the market collapsed in 2022.
Founders Fund then bought another $100 million in Bitcoin in 2023 when it was trading below $30,000.
Bitcoin isn’t that cypherpunk
Thiel revealed that Bitcoin hasn’t turned out as cypherpunk as he originally envisioned.
“Where I’m less convinced is this question of the ideological founding vision of Bitcoin as a cypherpunk, crypto-anarchist, libertarian, anti-centralized government thing.”
“That’s what I thought was terrific about it,” Thiel recalled when first coming across Bitcoin.
But he now believes Bitcoin “doesn’t really work that way.”
“When people in the FBI tell me that they'd much rather have criminals use Bitcoin than $100 bills it suggests that maybe it's not quite working the way it was supposed to.”
However, Bitcoin was designed to be a public, permissionless and decentralized ledger — and transactions weren’t intended to be completely untraceable like Monero and other privacy-focused networks.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,450, down 1.8% over the last 24 hours.
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Telegram-linked Notcoin eyes 100% price rally after 210M NOT token burn
Telegram-based Notcoin (NOT) is poised for significant growth, with projections of doubling its market capitalization in the coming weeks. This optimistic outlook is supported by strong technical indicators and fundamental factors, namely the ecosystem's recent token burn.
Notcoin burns 210M NOT tokens in a day
On June 25, the Notcoin team announced that it had burnt 210 million NOT tokens worth $3 million in a day, a move that grabbed traders' attention and helped NOT's price rally by up to 16.40% to reach $0.0164.
The Notcoin team revealed plans to distribute $4.2 million worth of NOT tokens to "Gold and Platinum users" of its Explore initiative. This initiative allows any project to contribute NOT to the Explore pool and create campaigns with tasks for users who earn NOT for completion.
Both updates point to two fundamentally bullish scenarios. For instance, token burns permanently remove a portion of a coin's supply from active circulation, a theoretically bullish strategy if the demand for the coins increases simultaneously.
Similarly, users earning NOT for task completion ensures continuous demand for the token as new projects and users join the platform. Both features are central to Notcoin founder Sasha's four-year roadmap for the project.
The Notcoin project is currently focusing on its Notcoin app, which features campaigns that allow users to earn Notcoin by engaging with new Telegram games. The aim is to establish the app as a central hub for launching other ecosystem projects, driving demand for Notcoin, and incorporating token burns.
Notcoin technical analysis: a 100% price rally potential
Price chart technicals suggest that NOT's ongoing price rally is part of a broader rebound after the token tested the lower trendline of its prevailing falling wedge pattern.
Falling wedges are considered bullish reversal patterns, characterized by two converging, downward-sloping trendlines. As a rule, they will resolve after the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and the lower trendline.
Applying the same technical principles to NOT's bullish scenario, the upside target for July is between $0.023 and $0.0031, up 45-100% from the current price levels, depending on the breakout point.
Conversely, the bearish scenario is that a break below the wedge’s lower trendline risks invalidating the bullish reversal setup altogether and may take NOT price toward $0.011, a support level from May 31 to June 1.
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Today's daily combo looks like this. Go ahead and collect your coins
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Bitcoin exchange balances 'overrated?' 140K BTC Mt. Gox payout sparks debate
Bitcoin analysis now doubts the relevance of exchanges’ BTC balances as 140,000 Mt. Gox coins line up for release.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter on June 24, popular commentator Matthew Hyland described decreasing exchange supply as “overrated.”
Bitcoin exchange balances at six-year lows
Crypto exchanges’ aggregate BTC balances are at multi-year lows. Traditionally, this is considered proof of demand taking off, but not everyone is so sure.
For Hyland, the correlation between supply fluctuations and BTC price performances leaves a lot to be desired.
“The supply aspect IMO is overrated,” he summarized alongside a chart comparing exchange availability to BTC/USD.
“BTC on exchanges dropped during the entire bear market yet, BTC price continued down with it. Long term it matters but within multi-years it has shown it does not.”
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which tracks the balances of 31 major trading platforms, puts the total number of coins currently available for purchase at 2,317,495 BTC as of June 24.
This is an increase of approximately 18,000 BTC over the past ten days, marking the latest multi-year aggregate balance low. The last time that exchanges had a similarly small amount of BTC available was in March 2018.
Mow: Mt. Gox sale will have "minimal impact"
The picture may soon change — but consensus is lacking over for the better or worse.
As reported, the bankruptcy proceedings of defunct exchange Mt. Gox, which involve 140,000 BTC worth nearly $9 billion, are due to draw to an end in July.
This will involve sending those funds to users who originally lost them, and opinions are split as to whether this will result in a mass distribution event.
“It can’t be positive that’s for sure,” popular trader Bob Loukas wrote during an X discussion this week.
Some believe that the Mt. Gox announcement played a part in BTC/USD hitting its lowest levels in nearly two months this week, but this topic is also contested.
“There isn't a massive ‘dump’ from Germany or Gox,” Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption firm JAN3, responded, referencing recent movements of confiscated BTC owned by the German government.
“Right now this Bitcoin dip is purely sentiment and fear driven, not from selling of large holdings. Even when Gox coins come to market, if there are sales, they will likely be via OTC and will have minimal impact on price.”
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Bitcoin ‘cascading long squeeze’ to blame for slump to $60K
A “cascading long squeeze” of Bitcoin could explain the asset’s recent drop to 53-day lows as miners continue to sell, according to a Bitcoin analyst.
“Speculators kept adding to new long positions, just adding more fuel for more liquidations in a cascading long squeeze,” pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo wrote in a June 24 X post.
A long squeeze happens when a large number of long-position investors (those betting on a rise in Bitcoin’s price) start selling their holdings as the price falls to cut their losses. This causes the price to drop even more, leading to a cascading effect on other long-position holders.
The opposite is referred to as a short squeeze. This term became well-known when retail traders pumped up the price of GameStop stocks in January 2021, forcing large short investors to buy back the stock at a higher price to limit their losses and thus pushing the stock price up to meteoric heights.
According to CoinGlass data, a dip below $60,000, similar to June 24 when Bitcoin fell below $59,000, would wipe $1.16 billion in long positions. However, a similar 3.73% upward swing would erase $2.18 billion in short positions, showing that traders are currently more confident in the price going downward.
“Worth a breakdown of what’s happening given the fear in the market,” Woo added.
It comes as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index — which measures market sentiment for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market — tanked to its lowest score in nearly 18 months.
Post-halving miners capitulation continues
Woo also pointed out the ongoing “post-halving miners capitulation” event, which is a theory that miners will turn off their hardware and sell their coins if Bitcoin falls below a certain price and mining becomes unprofitable.
“Superimposed on this liquidation squeeze, we have a post-halving miners capitulation,” said Woo, explaining that miners selling Bitcoin could pay for needed upgrades while the weakest miners are closing shop and being liquidated.”
On June 25, Bitcoin’s price is trading slightly above the crucial $60,000 level, at $61,320 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.
On June 24, Bitcoin saw its biggest daily decline in over three months, dropping 6.26% to $58,890, according to pseudonymous crypto commentator Bitcoin Archive.
“The biggest daily discount in price for 97 days,” they wrote on June 24.
Jan3 CEO Samson Mow believes the “Bitcoin dip is purely sentiment and fear driven, not from selling off large holdings.”
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