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Bitcoin 'whale games' come early as BTC price swoons below $60K
Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 for the first time in seven weeks on June 24 as analysis blamed “whale games” for downside.
Bitcoin whale "spoofing" costs BTC longs big
Data showed new BTC price local lows of $59,809 on Bitstamp hitting after the Wall Street open.
Weakness which began after the weekly close continued through the Asia and Wall Street trading sessions to deliver 5% losses on the day for BTC/USD.
Reacting, trading resource Material Indicators revealed a classic scenario playing out on repeat across exchange order books. Whales, it warned, were shifting liquidity around in order to influence price momentum.
“Near range ask liquidity is paper thin in the Bitcoin order book so it won't take much to push price up from here,” it noted on X (formerly Twitter).
“So far, that's been a challenge because the Whale Games I expected later in the week have already begun.”
An accompanying chart showed liquidity clusters for the BTC/USDT pair on largest global exchange Binance.
Material Indicators referred to upcoming United States macroeconomic data releases, and added that liquidity “spoofing” courtesy of whales was also visible — similar to last week.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed the extent of pain for BTC long positions thanks to the trip below the $60,000 mark.
Long liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing topped $136.5 million, with the crypto total at $265 million.
BTC price retracement "not even average"
Others compared the current pullback versus others since the beginning of the latest Bitcoin bull market at the start of 2023.
For trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker, known as the “Wolf of All Streets,” a ten-month low for Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily timeframes was cause for optimism over a local price bottom.
“RSI is finally touching oversold (has not closed there yet),” he confirmed.
“This is the first time since August, 2023. RSI did not even go oversold when Bitcoin recently hit $56,000.”
RSI observers tend to look for values below 30 for possible dip-buying opportunities with the asset in question “oversold.” Daily RSI measured 26.7 at the time of writing.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile acknowledged the relatively shallow nature of the latest drop compared to others this year and last.
“Across all retraces dating back to the Bear Market Bottom of 2022... The average retrace depth is -22%,” he calculated.
“The average retrace length is 42 days. This current pullback is -16% deep and 35 days long. This current retrace is not even an average one in depth nor length yet.”
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Bitcoin falls below $63K after BTC whale transactions drop 42%
Bitcoin whales slowed their transaction activity in the past two days, just before Bitcoin’s price slipped below $63,000.
On June 23, the total number of Bitcoin whaletransactions (exceeding $100,000) was 9,923 over the previous two days, a 42% decrease from the 17,091 transactions recorded the two days prior, according to data from Santiment.
The change in whale behavior comes amid the price of Bitcoin falling from $64,685 to $63,422 and has since declined further to $62,531 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Meanwhile, whale traders betting on the future price of Bitcoin have also taken a step back, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
“Whale traders on derivatives exchanges are in risk-off mode,” Ki stated in a June 23 X post, a term to describe a bearish change in market sentiment.
Ki pointed to the inter-exchange flow pulse (IFP) turning “red” as the reason behind the decline. The IFP tracks Bitcoin movements between spot and derivative exchanges, reflecting market sentiment.
The IFP turning red indicates an increase in traders withdrawing their Bitcoin from derivatives exchanges, which are platforms used for entering financial contracts based on Bitcoin’s future price.
Crypto index turns from greed to neutral
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures crypto market sentiment, dropped to a “Neutral” score of 51, the lowest it has been in 51 days since Bitcoin fell below the critical $60,000 level to $59,122.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) have also recorded a string of outflows over the past six trading days, according to Farside data. The largest day of outflows over the six days was $226.2 million on June 13.
On the other hand, other analysts are looking at different indicators as signs of optimism for Bitcoin’s price.
“The Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio has reached levels signaling it is time for the market to move,” Glassnode lead analyst James Check, also known as “Checkmatey,” wrote in a June 23 X post.
“All the profits that were going to be taken, have been. Same for losses,” he added, explaining that Bitcoin will need to “find a new price range to stoke the fire of fear, greed, panic, or euphoria.”
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6 months of sideways? Bitcoin price action mimics 2023 lull
Bitcoin has months of consolidation left if early bull market behavior repeats itself.
In his latest market commentary, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital drew fresh comparisons between Bitcoin price action this year and in 2023.
BTC price forms “similar looking range” to 2023
Bitcoin may be firmly rangebound since its latest block subsidy halving in April, but the lack of BTC price upside should not concern bulls, Rekt Capital suggests.
Looking at Bitcoin bull market phases past and present, he showed that as recently as 2023, BTC/USD experienced extended periods of nonvolatile moves.
“Bitcoin tends to form Re-Accumulation Ranges after the Halving,” he summarized on X.
“But we’ve also seen Bitcoin form a similar-looking range in this cycle already as well (blue circle).”
An accompanying chart directly compared the current status quo to a multimonth consolidation phase that spanned the second and third quarters of 2023.
Should such a setup be in place now, Bitcoin would remain in its narrow trading corridor for several more months.
Other analysis meanwhile argued that this week’s BTC price correction was “long overdue” based on previous bull markets.
Here, a chart pitted 2024 against the early innings of the Bitcoin bull market in mid-2016.
Bitcoin hash rate in limbo with price
As reported, the so-called “re-accumulation phase” is being reflected not only in price but also in miner activity.
Since the halving cut miners’ per-block subsidy by 50%, a new “capitulation” has begun, per the popular Hash Ribbons metric.
This compares the 30-day average hashrate to its 60-day equivalent, and when the former drops below the latter, “capitulation” begins. Historically, such periods have signaled suitable buying opportunities, with the last occurring in Q3 of 2023.
“I know it sucks, but BTC is not going to break all time highs until more pain and boredom plays out,” Willy Woo, creator of the onchain statistics platform Woobull, commented about the phenomenon this week.
“On the bright side, miners are capitulating and when that is through, it nearly always ends in a huge rally. Look for compressions in this ribbon. Buy and hodl in these regions.”
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Remilia hacker moves $4.3M to Tornado Cash
The hacker responsible for the $4.3 million Remilia exploit in March has siphoned the stolen crypto assets through the crypto mixer Tornado Cash.
On June 17, blockchain analysis company CertiK reported that 1,209.5 Ether worth about $4.3 million was deposited into Tornado Cash. According to CertiK, the assets were traced back to multiple addresses linked to the Remilia hack on March 16.
Remilia is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) responsible for the Milady Maker non-fungible token (NFT) collection.
Hacker sells NFTs linked to Milady
The crypto assets were deposited to the mixing platform about three months after the Remilia hack.
On March 16, Remilia and Milady founder Krishna Okhandiar, also known as Charlotte Fang, claimed they were hacked. The report came as significant amounts of ETH and NFTs were transferred to a wallet that liquidated the assets after receiving them.
The incident was highlighted by an account called Dumpster DAO on X, which shared a screenshot of the Remilia founder reporting the hack. The X account also shared the address that received the assets from wallets connected to Remilia.
Blockchain data showed the address sold Milady-linked NFTs, including staked NFTx assets, and transferred $1 million in ETH to another address.
Milady memecoin presale
Two days after the hack, a memecoin paying homage to Milady NFTs successfully conducted a presale on the Solana network. On March 18, the meme token Milady Wif Hat (LADYF), which takes inspiration from the dog-themed memecoin Dog Wif Hat (WIF), attracted 91,486 Solana just two hours after the announcement, which was worth $18.7 million at the time.
Since the presale was oversubscribed, the team announced it would return all the additional SOL to the senders. Since then, the asset’s price has depreciated, reaching a new all-time low of $0.00001703 on June 14.
On its website, the memecoin creators clarified that they are not associated with Charlotte Fang and the Milady Maker NFTs. “This token is simply paying homage to a NFT collection we all love and recognize,” they wrote.
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Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade: Key risks identified in Report
As Ethereum prepares for the Pectra upgrade in early 2025, a recent research report published by Liquid Collective and Obol has revealed multiple associated risks.
The report highlights the importance of client, operator and cloud diversity alongside concerns regarding the limited adoption of distributed validator technology (DVT).
Alluvial chief product officer Matt Leisinger, a software development company supporting Liquid Collective, said:
“Our latest report with Obol highlights the growing importance of addressing Ethereum staking’s correlated risks and protocol-level penalties.”
Client and operator risks
Regarding consensus and execution clients, the report warned that “a significant bug in a dominant client” could lead to “substantial slashing penalties and network instability.”
As a fundamental element of Ethereum’s consensus mechanism, staking through a single node operator can expose staked assets to downtime and slashing risks.
On staking, the report warned that “operator diversity is crucial for maintaining network health and avoiding single points of failure.”
Leisinger reinforced this statement in the report, telling:
“Every staker and service provider must rigorously assess correlation, diversity, and risk mitigation to prevent potential risks, even from trusted node operators.”
Cloud diversity concerns
The report also critically discussed the need for a wide geographical spread of validators and cloud providers, citing “recent outages, such as those at Hetzner and AWS.”
It explained that DVT can significantly support this strategy, enhancing “validator resilience by reducing correlated risks.”
Leisinger added:
“For long-term resilience and institutional adoption, it’s critical that staking configurations prioritize node operator and validator diversity.”
The Pectra upgrade
The upcoming Ethereum Pectra upgrade combines the Prague and Electra upgrades, focusing on changes to network execution and consensus layers, respectively.
Petra is expected to go live in the first quarter of 2025 and include the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-7251.
According to the report, “the Pectra upgrade will allow staking providers to consolidate their stake into fewer validators by raising the maximum effective balance to 2,048 ETH.”
The change in the staking limit will reduce the number of validators required and ease pressure on Ethereum’s communication layer.
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Bitcoin whales scoop up $1.4B in 24 hours amid market correction
Bitcoin whales took full advantage of the Bitcoin price slump on June 11, accumulating a combined 20,600 BTC worth $1.38 billion.
According to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, it was the largest inflow day for Bitcoin whales since Feb. 28, when spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were barely six weeks old and BTC approached a new all-time high.
Inflows into Bitcoin whale accounts hovered between 1,300 and 2,200 Bitcoin per day as Bitcoin fell from $71,650 on June 7 to around $69,000. The price plummeted again days later, leading to a massive day with 20,600 Bitcoin flowing into whale accumulation addresses on June 11.
The data hasn’t yet been updated for June 12, which saw Bitcoin’s price briefly spike after better-than-expected United States Consumer Price Index results. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $67,500.
It comes as Bitcoin’s supply on cryptocurrency exchanges fell to 942,000 — its lowest level since Dec. 22, 2021, according to onchain intelligence platform Santiment.
A fall in Bitcoin reserves often indicates a strengthening market where investors anticipate upward price action over the mid to long term.
Bitcoin is still down 8.45% from its all-time high price of $73,737 set on March 13, according to CoinGecko.
Ethereum whales aren’t sleeping either
Ethereum whales have recently bought over 240,000 Ether worth nearly $840 million at current prices, according to industry analyst Ali Martinez, citing Santiment data.
However, unlike Bitcoin, Santiment said the supply of Ether on cryptocurrency exchanges has increased in recent days.
There is currently 17.98 million Ether (worth $63.1 billion) held on cryptocurrency exchanges, according to Santiment data.
Ether is down 8% from $3,815 on June 7 to $3,510 at the time of writing.
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BTC price shoots up $1.5K in seconds as US CPI shows inflation slowing
Bitcoin spiked higher into the June 12 Wall Street open after United States inflation data delivered a surprise drop.
CPI fuels sudden 3% BTC price surge
Data captured a snap BTC price surge to $69,636 on Bitstamp.
Bitcoin gained $1,500 in seconds as the May print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation cooling faster than expected.
Month-on-month CPI was unchanged from last month, while the year-on-year tally was 3.3% — both 0.1% lower than forecast.
“The all items index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending May, a smaller increase than the 3.4-percent increase for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months,” an official press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed.
The result was a boon for risk assets, including crypto, which had suffered in the run-up to CPI in what had become classic behavior for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Now, markets braced for the June meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, due later on the day. Here, the decision on interest rate changes, as well as commentary on the economy by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, would be of key importance to sentiment.
Reacting to the latest events, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro was optimistic. CPI, he suggested, had given Powell the green light to entertain an overall easing of tight financial policy in the form of high rates.
“The stage is set for J Powell to talk easing. Let’s go,” he summarized on X (fomerly Twitter).
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, focused on falling U.S. dollar strength in the wake of the data.
“The Dollar and Treasury Yields are dropping significantly as the markets are expecting rate cuts to be happening,” he noted.
“This could be the massive sign for Altcoins and Bitcoin.”
Future brightens for Bitcoin-friendly policy easing
Bitcoin thus erased the losses which had come courtesy of U.S. employment data the week prior.
Further such figures were due into the end of the week, leaving the door open to further BTC price volatility.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool meanwhile showed shifting market bets on when rate cuts could come, with the September FOMC meeting now at over 70%.
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BTC average change in retail demand falls to 5-month low, could a 75% rally be next?
Average Bitcoin demand among retail investors has dropped to its lowest point in five months to levels last seen in January — which ended in a 75% surge over the following two months.
The average monthly change in demand for Bitcoin (BTC) among retail investors — those with up to $10,000 in transfer volume — has fallen to negative 17% over the last 30 days, according to data shared to X on June 10 by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler.
Adler added that “a similar previous drop to -18%” in January saw Bitcoin increase from $40,000 to $70,000 — when it surged after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the United States, propelling Bitcoin to its mid-March $73,679 all-time high.
“I also noticed that this cohort reacts quickly to any market changes,” Adler said.
In May, Adler used the same measure to show that demand dropped by 31% over the 17 days before May 24, falling to a negative 14.50%. He pointed to increased interest in GameStop and Ether (ETH), possibly due to the initial approval of spot Ether ETFs.
Analysts have previously suggested the shift in Bitcoin demand is due to several factors, including the inflation-tracking U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).
When the CPI decreases, perceived riskier assets like Bitcoin can become more appealing to investors, as traditional savings and term deposits offer less lucrative returns as interest rates drop.
Head researcher at 10x Research, Markus Thielen, told Cointelegraph in May that the CPI must drop to 3.3% on June 12 — the date when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the data — in order for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs.
Bitcoin dropped below $69,000 on June 11 — the asset’s November 2021 all-time high — a level closely watched by traders. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $67,350, down 3.19% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.
The sudden decline wiped out $52.87 million worth of Bitcoin long positions the past day. Open Interest remained above the closely watched $35 billion mark, per CoinGlass data.
Despite traders’ hopes for Bitcoin to quickly bounce back above $70,000 after dropping below it on June 8, it has yet to do so.
Future traders do not seem to be anticipating its recovery in the near term, despite the CPI results due on June 12, with $2.14 billion in short positions at stake if it does rebound.
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Mt. Gox to Distribute Repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash in July
Mt. Gox, the Japanese Bitcoin exchange that suffered a notorious collapse in 2014, is to begin distributing repayments to its creditors in the form of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash starting in July.
The collapse of Mt. Gox triggered years of legal proceedings and efforts to recover the lost assets. In 2018, approximately 200,000 Bitcoins were recovered, initiating a lengthy rehabilitation process under the oversight of a court-appointed trustee. Creditors have since been awaiting compensation, with multiple delays frustrating the process.
The latest filing shows starting in July 2024, the rehabilitation trustee will commence the repayment process, distributing BTC and BCH to creditors.
This distribution aims to compensate the users who lost their funds during the collapse. The exact details of the repayment plan, including the proportion of assets to be distributed and the timeline for completion, are closely watched by the crypto community.
Mt. Gox Owes Creditors 142,000 BTC
In May, Mt Gox moved billions in Bitcoin which in turn had an impact on the market. It is estimated the exchange owes its creditors 142,000 BTC (worth over $9 billion), which needs to be paid out before 31 October 2024.
It was suggested that creditors might start receiving their Bitcoin in May as noted by K33 Research analysts Anders Helseth and Vetle Lunde in an April 23 market note. The outstanding debt to Mt. Gox’s 127,000 creditors amounts to over $9.4 billion in Bitcoin, $72 million in Bitcoin Cash, and $445.8 million (69 billion Japanese yen).
The initiation of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash repayments by Mt. Gox marks an important milestone in resolving a decade-old financial debacle.
Bitcoin Price Drops Below $62,500
The price of Bitcoin has dipped below $62,500 as the entire crypto market witnessed one of the worst weekly drops of the year.
Bitcoin is trading at its monthly low of near $62,490 amid a six-day streak of outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs and uncertainty over monetary policies. Bitcoin price is down 6% in the last seven days.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction Amid Renewed Interest from Small Investors – Bull Market Returning?
Bitcoin price is currently trading at $64,380, exhibiting a bearish bias below the $64,500 pivot point mark. Data from CryptoQuant indicates a significant link between individual account activity and Bitcoin price movements.
A peak in individual demand was observed shortly after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,738 on March 14, 2024. This increased interest from retail investors suggests they are more inclined to invest during price fluctuations and can potentially stabilize the market during downturns.
Over the past few weeks, the interest from retail on-chain accounts has increased by 7%, which analysts see as a positive indicator for BTC price prediction.
Institutional and Macro Factors; Bitcoin Price Movement
Macro analyst Axel Adler highlights that retail interest in Bitcoin has risen by 7% compared to the local bottom in May. He notes that while predicting a full recovery is premature, the increased interest from retail investors is promising.
Adler suggests that retail dynamics, as observed through CryptoQuant’s data, could significantly influence potential price movements.
He also points out that crypto whales reinvesting their gains will support the market recovery and further stabilize it.
Mining Sector Insights
Seasoned analyst Willy Woo emphasizes the importance of mining dynamics in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Woo predicts the capitulation of inefficient miners, historically seen after halving events, as a critical factor. He notes that miners with cost-ineffective hardware have left the market more slowly than before.
However, Woo suggests that the end of this process, ongoing for over 60 days, will signal the next phase of the Bitcoin rally.
As the market matures and Bitcoin’s net hashrate increases, this long-anticipated capitulation is nearing its conclusion, potentially paving the way for a price surge.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading at $64,380, showing a slight decline of 0.01%. The key pivot point is at $64,500, marked by the green line, suggesting a bearish Bitcoin price prediction.
Immediate resistance levels are at $65,000, $65,700, and $66,500. These resistance points suggest potential selling pressure if Bitcoin attempts to rise.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $64,000, with further support at $63,500 and $62,900.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.8, indicating a neutral trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $64,500, adding to the resistance near the pivot point.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $64,000, with further support at $63,500 and $62,900. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.8, indicating a neutral trend.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $64,500, adding to the resistance near the pivot point.
The downward channel is extending bearish sentiment, providing resistance around the $65,000 mark.
This setup suggests that maintaining below the pivot point could trigger a bearish trend in BTC.
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Michael Dell’s Bitcoin post sparks massive BTC purchase speculations
Michael Dell, founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, has generated excitement with a curious message suggesting that his company might explore Bitcoin as a possible investment.
On June 21, Dell tweeted, "Scarcity creates value," a phrase often associated with Bitcoin due to its supply cap of 21 million tokens against rising demand. His tweet quickly drew the attention of Michael Saylor, a prominent advocate for Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset.
Dell's subsequent repost of Saylor’s reply, coupled with an image of Cookie Monster eating Bitcoin, left the market abuzz with anticipation that he may invest in the cryptocurrency in the future, either from his personal investment portfolio or via his company.
Dell's Bitcoin tweet comes after his $2.1 billion cashout
Dell's recent financial moves provide a strong backdrop for this potential investment into Bitcoin.
For instance, Dell Technologies’ stock has appreciated nearly fivefold since its return to the public market in December 2018. In the past 18 months alone, the company’s Class C common stock has surged from $40 to $145 per share, quadrupling Dell’s net worth to around $120 billion, making him the 14th richest person globally.
So far, in 2024, Dell has cashed out $2.1 billion while retaining 58% of the company's ownership. In other words, he has excess capital available to deploy into the Bitcoin market, particularly against the backdrop of rising U.S. debt, which may negatively impact the U.S. dollar's value in the future.
What if Dell Technologies' portfolio goes 1% Bitcoin?
Joe Consorti, an analyst at the Bitcoin Layer— a global macro research firm—argues that Bitcoin can benefit from corporations like Dell Technologies, given their potential to garner excess cash due to the advent of cost-cutting artificial intelligence technologies.
"Outsized returns on their reserves during this AI boom will provide a further buffer for capital allocation during a time when spending and scaling in computer manufacturing haven’t been this rapid or hotly contested in decades," he wrote, adding:
"Dell is sitting on $5.83 billion in cash to make that happen."
For corporates, holding even a small percentage of the balance sheet in Bitcoin—say 1%—could give them a significant edge over competitors.
For example, if Dell Technologies allocates 1% of its $5.83 billion cash reserves to Bitcoin, amounting to $58.3 million, it could potentially see this investment grow to $118.7 million in just one year, based on Bitcoin's historical annualized returns of approximately 103.5% over the past decade.
Historical data suggests that corporations can greatl benefit from Bitcoin investment. For instance, Saylor’s MicroStrategy boasts a staggering profit of approximately $6.33 billion from its strategic BTC acquisitions in recent years.
At the same time, top investors like Warren Buffett have refrained from buying Bitcoin. Hypothetically, Buffett would have boosted his company Berkshire Hathaway's returns from 214% to 240% over five years if he had allocated even 1% of its net portfolio to Bitcoin.
"Bitcoin is the single best asset to position yourself in for outsized risk-adjusted returns over any multi-year timeframe," noted Consorti, adding:
"You're simply not working in the best interest of your shareholders if you ignore this without reason."
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Bitcoin is facing a rare ‘extended level’ of FUD on X — Santiment
Bitcoin has been facing an “extended level of FUD” on social media platform X amid sideways trading at the $65,000 mark, according to data from cryptocurrency intelligence platform Santiment.
“This extended level of FUD is rare, as traders continue to capitulate,” Santiment wrote in a June 20 X post. FUD stands for fear, uncertainty and doubt.
“The crowd is mainly fearful or disinterested toward Bitcoin as prices range between $65K to $66K,” it added.
The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between highs near $67,294 and lows around $64,180 over the last week, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Santiment pointed to its Weighted Sentiment Index— a metric that measures Bitcoin mentions on X and compares the ratio of positive to negative comments — remaining negative since May 23.
At the time of publication, it stands at -0.738, indicating that Bitcoin mentions are predominantly negative on X.
However, positive events for Bitcoin, such as the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on Jan. 10 and the Bitcoin halving on April 20, which saw the indicator spike to positive levels of 4.49 and 2.35, respectively.
Negative sentiment toward Bitcoin on social media has come from all ends of the crypto community, including traders and analysts with significant followings.
“Bitcoin is around 60 days into a ~150-day long sideways slog since the halving,” Glassnode lead analyst James Check, known as “Checkmatey,” wrote in a June 19 X post.
“Months of sideways price action -- the most boring phase of the bull market,” pseudonymous crypto trader Jelle added.
“Bitcoin is pretty boring right now,” pseudonymous crypto trader Trader Cobb added.
Some believe the lengthy consolidation could be making way for a meteoric price surge.
On June 13 reported that Bitcoin was in its longest period of consolidation, at 92 days at the time, with analysts saying the extended steadiness could be setting the asset up for a “massive upside rally.”
“Generally, the longer a consolidation, the larger the expansion afterward,” pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote.
Meanwhile, another crypto market sentiment gauge, the Fear and Greed Index, is showing a Greed reading of 63 at the time of writing, down 11 points over the past seven days.
While this metric also considers social media sentiment, it analyzes other factors such as volatility, market momentum and volume, market dominance and current trends.
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Bitcoin price uptrend ‘intact’ with hodlers 120% in profit — Research
Bitcoin is still “largely profitable” despite months of sideways BTC price action, says new research.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, published on June 18, analytics firm Glassnode dispelled myths over investors’ unrealized losses.
BTC price analysis flags “investor boredom and apathy”
Bitcoin may be trading within a rigid corridor, but the majority of hodlers are not seeing a return on investment evaporate as a result.
Summarizing current BTC price behavior as “establishing equilibrium,” Glassnode pointed to multiple on-chain metrics showing Bitcoin in a period of consolidation — not capitulation.
“Sideways price movement tends to manifest as investor boredom and apathy, which appears to be the dominant response across all Bitcoin markets,” it wrote.
“BTC prices are consolidating within a well-established trade range. Investors remain in a generally favourable position, with over 87% of the circulating supply held in profit, with a cost basis below the spot price.”
Using the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, researchers showed that on aggregate, a given amount of BTC is still up by more than two times, or 120%, versus its purchase price in United States dollar terms. The one-year average value of MVRV is currently 86%.
“The MVRV Ratio remains above its yearly baseline, suggesting that the macro uptrend remains intact,” accompanying commentary added.
Bitcoin speculators refuse to capitulate
The newsletter’s mood contrasts with some of the more panicked reactions to this week’s BTC price drop.
As continues to report, traders are wary of support trendlines disintegrating and multimonth lows reappearing as a result.
Among the most important lines in the sand now on the radar is the aggregate purchase price for Bitcoin’s speculative investor base, the so-called short-term holders (STHs).
The latest data from statistics resource LookIntoBitcoin puts the STH cost basis at $64,000.
Despite seeing unrealized gains fading, STH entities themselves are not preparing for a mass sell-off at current prices, Glassnode states.
“At present, Short-Term Holders are sending around +17.4k BTC/day to exchanges,” it calculated.
“However, this is markedly lower than the peak of +55k BTC/day recorded as the market hit the $73k ATH in March, where speculation levels were becoming excessive.”
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SEC shoots down Ripple’s argument for a lower penalty
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has criticized Ripple Labs’ latest argument for a lower penalty, saying it wouldn’t be enough.
On June 13, Ripple cited the SEC’s settlement with Terraform Labs when it again asked Judge Analisa Torres of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York for a penalty of “no more than $10 million” — far lower than the regulator’s proposed $876.3 million civil penalty.
A day later, the SEC argued in a June 14 letter to Torres that its $4.5 billion settlement with Terraform Labs and its co-founder Do Kwon — inclusive of a $420 million civil penalty — was made as the firm is bankrupt, agreed to return money to investors and fired leaders “in charge at the time of the violations.”
“Ripple is agreeing to none of this relief — in fact, Ripple is agreeing to nothing.”
Ripple’s argument that Terraform’s $420 million civil penalty was around 1.27% of its “$33 billion gross sales” wasn’t an “apples-to-apples comparison,” the SEC said.
The SEC added it measured Terraform’s penalty against “the gross profit of the violative conduct,” which it pinned at over $3.5 billion — a nearly 12% ratio.
The regulator argued Ripple’s civil penalty would be $102.6 million if the same ratio were applied to the $876.3 million of Ripple’s gross profits it asked to disgorge.
“That low of a penalty would not satisfy the purposes of the civil penalty statutes,” the SEC said.
The SEC’s proposed penalties for Ripple total nearly $2 billion, which includes $198.2 million in prejudgment interest, $876.3 million in civil penalty and another $876.3 million in disgorgement.
The pair have been in their court fight since 2020 when the SEC claimed Ripple sold unregistered securities, which Torres agreed it did in a July 2023 ruling — but only when sold to institutional investors.
In May, the SEC objected to Ripple’s bid to seal some of its finances, with the regulator arguing the firm should disclose the revenue it made from XRP sales that Torres ruled were unregistered.
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Bitcoin whale watching is 'useless' for information — Traders
Tracking the wallet movements of Bitcoin whales — a Bitcoin holder with a significant stake compared to smaller investors — will not lead to “true alpha,” according to traders, despite the metric used as a popular way to speculate on market sentiment for some time.
“Don't whale watch kids, it's not useful information,” onchain analysis firm Glassnode lead analyst James Check aka “Checkmatey” wrote in a June 15 X post.
“Not once have I seen true alpha extracted from whale watching. It's good for social media, but is almost never serious nor valuable analysis,” he added.
It is a common belief among crypto traders that Bitcoin whales with substantial Bitcoin holdings are capable of influencing the market through their trading tactics.
While they can have influence, whale’s movements can be interpreted in different ways, so the data never provides a definitive indication.
For example, dormant addresses with large holdings suddenly becoming active could suggest selling, particularly if they go into an exchange deposit address.
Pseudonymous crypto analyst TXMC, host of YouTube channel Alpha Beta Soup, warned "against using "whale" metrics and making declarations about them,” in a June 15 X post.
They explained that when large amounts of Bitcoin are being sold by whales in a short period of time, it doesn't always indicate a sell-off is happening.
“The mechanical stepwise drawdown here speaks to wallet mgmt and you are only seeing part of a larger pie. These are sometimes firms & institutions with multiple wallets and hundreds/ thousands of clients,” they claimed.
“Data around these entities is notoriously noisy, and I can almost guarantee that the big 'whale' wallets you're watching are ETFs, and exchanges,” Check explained in a May 7 post.
“Cheap engagement bait in my honest opinion,” he added.
Social media posts covering whale movements tend to generate significant interest.
A recent post by pseudonymous crypto trader Marty Party discussing Bitcoin whale activity garnered over 205,000 views.
“Bitcoin OG whales have sold over 50,000 BTC in the past 10 days, totaling approximately $3.30 billion,” Marty Party wrote on June 14.
Analysts use the data to point out when whales have different thoughts on market
Analysts who cite Bitcoin whale movements often provide graphics to compare the activity over time.
“While you are scared, whales just bought $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin,” Bitgrow Lab founder Viviek Sen wrote on June 14 along with a graphic extracted from crypto analysis firm CryptoQuant.
However, other analysts still look to whale movements to gauge the market's direction.
On May 15, CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin whaledemand is again in “acceleration mode” following a two-month downtrend.
“Bitcoin demand growth seems to be stabilizing after being in a decelerating trend since March,” it said.
CryptoQuant cited the data to claim that demand would need to accelerate further to sustain this price rally.
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May crypto investments hit $1B driven by Notcoin launch — KuCoin
KuCoin’s research arm published a report highlighting that the crypto space saw over $1 billion in investments in May, a slight decrease compared to the previous month.
On June 13, KuCoin Research said that 156 investments were publicly disclosed in May. In addition, the crypto exchange’s research arm reported that $1.02 billion in investment capital flowed into the space.
This represents a 10.61% increase compared to May 2023. However, the figure shows a 6.4% decrease when compared to April.
Ethereum, EVM blockchains and L2s maintain lead
Regarding investments, Ethereum, Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) chains and layer-2 (L2) network projects maintained their popularity among institutional investors. Despite this, non-EVM chains like Bitcoin, Solana, Fantom and TON were also among the 15 most popular networks among investors in May.
Animoca Brands and OKX Ventures were the most active among investors last month. Animoca Brands engaged in 15 deals, while OKX Ventures invested in 11 projects. Cogitent Ventures, SNZ Holding and DWF Labs were also active in May with 10, 8 and 7 deals, respectively.
High FDV trend leads investors to alternatives
KuCoin Research believes that in May, investors turned to memes and celebrity tokens in response to the issues raised concerning the low float and high fully diluted valuations (FDV) trend in crypto.
KuCoin believes that tokens launching with high valuations and low circulating supplies left investors with “very limited room.” Because of this, they looked for alternatives. KuCoin Research wrote:
“Some market participants have turned their focus towards character meme or celebrity meme tokens, relatively obscure low-market-cap assets, and new narratives.”
The researchers pointed out that Notcoin (NOT) was one of the tokens that benefited from this shift in May. KuCoin said that Notcoin’s launch with all tokens from the beginning contributed to its growth last month.
On June 3, NOT became the fifth most-traded crypto, beating the trading volume of popular stablecoin USD Coin. The token's price reached a new all-time high of $0.02896 on June 2, pushing its market capitalization above $2 billion.
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Bitcoin 92-day consolidation is setting up a ‘massive’ rally — Traders
Bitcoin has been in its longest period of consolidation now for 92 days and counting, and analysts believe the extended steadiness could be setting the asset up for a “massive upside rally.”
“Generally, the longer a consolidation, the larger the expansion afterward,” pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in a June 11 X post.
“Out of all consolidations, the current one is the longest,” Mags told their 79,500 X followers on a June 9 post.
“Once price breaks out of this consolidation range, we are going to witness a massive upside rally,” they added, noting that there were shorter periods of consolidation in previous cycles that still led to new all-time highs.
In a previous cycle after the 2020 Bitcoin halving, there was a 21-day consolidation period before Bitcoin broke out, eventually breaching an all-time high at the time of $69,000 in November 2021.
“We’re still in a large consolidation range for higher. Take a deep breath,” Roman wrote in a June 12 X post.
Bitcoin data from this year shows BTC has been in a consolidation phase since it hit its all-time high of $73,679 on March 13, or 92 days ago.
Consolidation periods refer to times when Bitcoin’s trading volume and volatility are lower than usual. Since reaching all-time highs, Bitcoin has traded within a tight 26% range, briefly dropping to its lowest point of $58,253 on May 2.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,413, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Previous forecasts by crypto analysts suggest that the consolidation period could extend until at least September or even October.
On May 16, reported that Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, stock and crypto market seasonality, along with Bitcoin onchain data, suggest that Bitcoin’s price could consolidate for four to five months.
Likening BTC’s price action to gold, which formed a “massive cup and handle” pattern over the last 13 years, with the “cup” lasting four years, Edwards noted how Bitcoin appears to show the same chart pattern.
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Bitcoin vs. Buffett: BTC holders' 104% CAGR dwarfs 'steady growth' portfolio
Comparing Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) with the returns achieved by Warren Buffett's portfolio—with its top holdings being Apple, Bank of America, American Express, Coca-Cola, and Chevron Corp—shows starkly different risk-reward profiles and performance over varying timeframes.
Warren Buffett Portfolio: less risk, same gains as stocks
For instance, according to the data resource Lazy Portfolio ETF, Warren Buffett’s portfolio has obtained a 10.03% CAGR with a 13.67% standard deviation in the last 30 years. In comparison, United States company stock portfolios have more or less offered similar returns but with a higher standard deviation.
In other words, the Oracle of Omaha’s portfolio has returned impressive results despite being less volatile or risky than U.S. stock portfolios. His investment philosophy emphasizes long-term value investing, prudent risk management, and a preference for fundamentally strong companies.
Bitcoin beats Buffett's risk-averse portfolio
By comparison, Bitcoin’s performance has been nothing short of extraordinary. Since its trading debut in 2011, Bitcoin has delivered a staggering average annual return of around 104%. This figure easily beats the returns of Warren Buffett and U.S. stock portfolios every year, on average, over the past 13 years.
Bitcoin's CAGR is also much higher than its safe-haven rival, gold, which has returned an average of 6% annually in the same period. This shows that while U.S. stock portfolios have achieved a comparable CAGR to the Warren Buffett portfolio, its higher volatility might make it unsuitable for risk-averse investors.
Gold, with its modest 6% average annual return over the past decade, offers relative stability and acts as a hedge against economic downturns.
Many traders and investors regard Bitcoin as "digital gold," viewing it as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
This perception has enhanced its appeal as an asset over the years. Notably, several U.S. companies, such as MicroStrategy and Tesla, have added Bitcoin to their reserves, followed by the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) that have further solidified its status among institutional investors.
That said, Bitcoin remains highly volatile, with its price subject to extreme fluctuations, when compared to the stable returns of Warren Buffett's portfolio. In recent years, however, Bitcoin has exhibited lower volatility than many S&P 500 stocks, including Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia.
The Warren Buffett Portfolio represents a more conservative, long-term strategy with consistent returns and manageable risk, even though it has exposure to a pro-crypto neobank, Nu Holdings.
In contrast, Bitcoin has provided much higher returns, albeit with significant volatility and several big downturns over the past 13 years.
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