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Bitcoin trader flags key levels as BTC price attacks $64K liquidity
Bitcoin returned above $64,000 on May 7 as the market took liquidity on both sides of the order book.
BTC price aims to grind down nearby sellers
Data showed BTC price action heading higher from the day’s lows of $62,864 on Bitstamp.
Still within a trading range in place since May 3, BTC/USD nonetheless gave speculators little chance to rest, with sharp moves in either direction liquidating positions.
After the daily close, it was bid liquidity being taken around $63,500, with Bitcoin then reversing to attack a larger cloud of liquidity around $1,000 higher, data from monitoring resource CoinGlassconfirms.
Commenting on recent price action, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that the weekend’s CME futures gap had already closed.
“Took some hours after the futures re-open but got there on Monday which is something we tend to see quite often,” he acknowledged in part of commentary on X (formerly Twitter).
Fellow trader Skew meanwhile highlighted several key levels to pay attention to going forward.
“Price currently still chopping around $64K,” part of his latest market update stated on the day.
“Going forward structurally important to trade Monthly open & $61K as market demand. HTF pivot $67K.”
Skew added that the recovery from two-month lows near $58,000 differentiated this bull market from that of 2021 when Bitcoin first attacked that level — all thanks to spot buyer demand.
U.S., Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF narrative flips bullish
On the subject of demand, the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managed a strong day of inflows on May 6.
Data from sources including United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside confirms that all ten spot ETFs — including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) — saw either neutral positive flows. These totaled $217 million.
On May 3, GBTC saw its first day of inflows since its conversion to an ETF.
“As long as inflows stays positive here the supply is getting scooped up so overall quite bullish,” popular commentator WhalePanda wrote in part of an X reaction.
WhalePanda additionally described the inflows to the newly-launched Hong Kong spot ETFs as “very stable volume-wise with consistant $8-9 million.”
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Satoshi-era dormant Bitcoin address wakes up after 10 years
A dormant Bitcoin address dating back to the era when Satoshi Nakamoto was still active has woken up after 10 years. The Bitcoin wallet containing 687 BTC ($43.9 million) transferred its holdings to two different wallets on May 6.
The wallet first transferred 625.43 Bitcoin to an address starting with “bc1qky” and 61.9 BTC to “bc1qdc.” The movement of funds from very old wallets, especially from the Satoshi era, often sparks curiosity among the crypto community.
The term “Satoshi era” relates to the early days after Bitcoin was created when its pseudonymous founder, Nakamoto, was active online in forums. Some Satoshi-era wallets are often speculated to be linked to Satoshi himself.
One such wallet woke from dormancy in August 2023 after almost 14 years and transferred 1,005 BTC mined in 2010. The wallet movement created the most buzz on social media, with speculation that it was Satoshi’s wallet.
However, experts suggest it is more likely associated with early miners or buyers just trying to make a profit.
According to a Fortune report, a total of 1.75 million Bitcoin wallets have remained inactive for over a decade. Many of these wallets contain significant BTC holdings estimated to be bought when the BTC price was trading in double digits and is currently valued in millions.
These dormant wallets contain 1,798,681 Bitcoin worth around $121 billion at today’s price.
Over the past couple of years, numerous Satoshi-era wallets have been activated only to transfer the BTC holdings to a new address. Some of these wallets were also found to have transferred their BTC holdings to crypto exchanges, which suggests they might be looking to take profits after nearly a decade.
In July 2023, a wallet dormant for 11 years transferred $30 million in BTC. In November 2023, three Satoshi-era BTC wallets transferred $230 million in BTC after six years of dormancy.
The three wallets are believed to be connected to the same individual or organization, as they made their last transactions on Nov. 5, 2017.
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South Korea stops short of allowing crypto in updated donation laws
Digital currencies have been excluded from newly amended donation legislation in South Korea which could be a blow to the country's charities and donation drives.
On May 5, local media outlet Kyunghyang Shinmun reported that the Ministry of Public Administration stated that some amendments to South Korea’s “Donations Act” have been filed but restrict the use of crypto assets for donation.
Starting in July, those wishing to donate to charitable organizations or causes will be able to use various new methods such as department store gift vouchers, stocks, and loyalty points from Korean internet giant Naver, but not crypto assets such as Bitcoin
The act on the collection and use of donated goods was first enacted in 2006 when there were fewer types of payment methods and smartphones were not widespread, it noted.
Methods of donation were also expanded from bank transfers and online methods to include automated response systems, postal services, and logistics services.
The Ministry didn’t provide reasoning for excluding digital asset donations despite their popularity in South Korea, however, the legislation is set to permit donations in local government-issued, KRW-pegged stablecoins and blockchain-issued gift vouchers.
More than $2 billion is estimated to have been donated globally using cryptocurrency as of January 2024, according to TheGivingBlock, a market that local charities would not be permitted to take.
Meanwhile, across the pond, it was recently reported that more than half of American charities now accept donations in digital assets.
In late April it was reported that South Korea was aiming to promote its temporary crypto crime investigative unit into an official department to tackle increasing crypto-related crimes and financial fraud.
In related news, Singapore-based crypto exchange Crypto.com is struggling to find inroads into South Korean markets due to regulatory hurdles.
In April reported that South Korean authorities found Anti-Money Laundering (AML)-related problems in the data submitted by the exchange and launched an “emergency on-site inspection” to monitor its activities.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Surges to $63,375, Eyeing $70,000 as Buying Intensifies
On Saturday morning, Bitcoin continued to command attention, with a recent price uptick to $63,375. This week, the foremost digital currency has shown resilience, registering a modest 0.22% rise. Currently positioned above a critical pivot point of $61,650, Bitcoin’s trajectory seems poised for further exploration towards $70,000.
With a trading volume of around $32.77 billion in 24 hours and a market cap of almost $1.25 trillion, ongoing developments influence Bitcoin price predictions.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
On the technical front, the key price levels to watch for Bitcoin include the pivot point, which stands at $61,651. Above this level, the immediate resistance is found at $64,564, followed by further resistance levels at $67,084 and $69,356.
On the downside, the immediate support level is at $59,164. Should Bitcoin move lower, the next support levels to watch are $56,677 and $54,336.
Bitcoin’s recent activity on the 4-hour timeframe illustrates a bullish trend, marked by a crossing above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61,574, which previously acted as resistance.
The formation of a ‘three white soldiers‘ candlestick pattern suggests a strong possibility for continued bullish momentum. However, there is a noted resistance at approximately $63,200, where a downward channel may temporarily restrict upward movement.
Should Bitcoin break above this threshold, it may swiftly approach the next resistance level at $64,564.
A further bullish breakout could potentially propel Bitcoin towards higher resistance levels of $67,084 and even $70,000, following a clear breach of a double-top pattern near $67,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 63, supports this optimistic outlook, indicating a dominant bullish sentiment in the market.
Given these factors, the market condition for Bitcoin remains favorable above the $61,651 pivot point. This level is crucial; maintaining above it suggests potential for higher climbs towards the outlined resistance markers. Conversely, a dip below this pivot could trigger a significant sell-off, targeting initial support at $59,164 and potentially lower levels if bearish pressure intensifies.
Conclusion: Bitcoin is poised for potential further gains if it remains above the pivotal $61,651 mark. Traders should monitor this level closely as staying above it could lead to testing higher resistances at $64,564 and beyond.
However, falling below $61,651 could see Bitcoin retreat towards lower support levels, with the market reassessing its bullish stance. The current technical setup underscores the critical juncture for Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory.
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Bitcoin enters 'a new era' as whales scoop up over 47K BTC during price pullback
Following the post-halving price dip, Bitcoin whales have started accumulating Bitcoin once again. Can whales push Bitcoin’s weekly close above $60,000?
Bitcoin whales, which are large wallets holding at least 100 BTC, have accumulated over 47,000 BTC worth over $2.9 billion at current prices, noted Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, in a May 3 X post:
“Bitcoin whales accumulated 47,000 $BTC in the past 24 hours. We're entering a new era.”
The chart excludes wallets related to centralized exchanges (CEXs) and mining firms. While the metric includes spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), they are not the reason behind the uptick, according to CryptoQuant’s founder:
“Mostly custodial wallets, including ETFs, but recent spike not ETF-related.”
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have indeed turned negative. The 11 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $871 million of negative net outflows this week, making it the largest week of outflows since launch, according to Dune.
Can BTC price close week above $60k?
Bitcoin’s recent drawdown was just a “downside wick” and a weekly close above the $60,000 mark could confirm the psychological mark as new support, according to popular Bitcoin analyst Rekt Capital. The analyst wrote in a May 3 X post:
“Looks like it was just a downside wick. Weekly Close just like this would confirm this pool of liquidity as secured support.”
Based on historical chart patterns, Bitcoin could remain in the post-halving “danger zone” for another week, according to Rekt Capital:
“Bitcoin still has one week left in the Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (purple). Therefore continued downside below the Re-Accumulation Range Low would not be out of the ordinary by standards of 2016 history.”
The dovish Federal Reserve could also help Bitcoin gain more upside momentum, according to İsa Sertkaya, the CTO of Silent Protocol, who told:
“The overall market sentiment improved due to the Fed showing signs of injecting liquidity into the economy. The U.S. announced that the seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, lower than the expected increase of 243,000 nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.8%.”
Bitcoin traders should keep a close eye on the $60,000 mark. A move below that level would liquidate over $700 million worth of leveraged long positions across all exchanges, according to Coinglass.
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Bitcoin post-halving price consolidation could last 2 months — Bitfinex
According to analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, Bitcoin could experience up to two months of price consolidation following the halving.
The latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha market report notes that Bitcoin could continue to be the price action benchmark for the crypto market in May and the leading indicator for the entire cryptocurrency market cap.
According to the report, the macroeconomic environment is more resilient than in previous years and the likelihood of rate cuts remains low in the short term.
Furthermore, the analysts said that general consumers and businesses are “better prepared and informed” about the state of the underlying economy when compared to previous crypto market cycles:
"Consequently, we believe we could see a 1-2 month consolidation in Bitcoin prices, trading in a range with swings of $10,000 on either side.”
The report adds that any positive impact on Bitcoin’s price following the halving, which has reduced the supply of new BTC to the market, will be seen in later months.
“At this point, the economy is also expected to be performing better, having achieved a soft landing and avoiding a recession, providing further impetus to crypto assets,” the analysts wrote.
Various cryptocurrency traders are offering similar views on Bitcoin’s recent consolidation from its all-time highs over a month ago.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of trading firm MNTrading, suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance may have peaked as traders begin to shift liquidity to altcoins. Crypto trader Matthew Hyland echoed this, highlighting that Bitcoin market dominance is losing major support.
The Bitfinex Alpha report also dived into technical details of Bitcoin’s dropping market dominance. It notes that Bitcoin halvings historically see attention shift toward altcoins which rally and gain market share.
“This shift occurs as Bitcoin’s reduced supply growth rate is seen as a long-term bullish development, which increases investor risk appetite, leading investors to seek potentially higher returns from alternative cryptocurrencies,” the report states.
Ether’s recent market performance has seen it outperform Bitcoin in gains for two consecutive weeks, a metric which last occurred in February 2023. Bitfinex analysts add that a 7.5% increase in the ETH/BTC metric marks ETH’s strongest weekly gain against Bitcoin since the start of the year.
The report also highlights Ether’s long-term role as a proxy for the altcoin market, making it a historical first mover before other altcoins catch up in terms of market trends.
Checkmate, the lead on-chain analyst at blockchain data firm Glassnode, also commented on Bitcoin’s recent consolidation. He explained that a gradual“de-leveraging” across Bitcoin futures has been ongoing since Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs in mid-March.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Passes The $63,000 Mark Once More – Time to Buy?
Bitcoin (BTC) recently eclipsed the $63,000 mark, prompting renewed interest in its future market trajectory. After briefly retracting below $60,000, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, underscoring its persistent volatility.
Observers are now evaluating the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a target of $70,000 in the face of fluctuating market conditions. Influential factors, such as the cryptocurrency halving events and evolving regulatory landscapes, significantly impact investor sentiment.
Additionally, the SEC’s endorsement of multiple Bitcoin ETFs has reinforced confidence in Bitcoin’s investment profile. This environment forms the basis for a nuanced Bitcoin price prediction.
US Bitcoin ETFs’ Mixed Influence on Bitcoin Price: Balancing Outflows and Growth Prospects
Recent activity in US spot Bitcoin ETFs has had mixed impacts on Bitcoin’s price. Notably, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust reported significant outflowsof $31.34 million and $24.66 million, respectively.
In contrast, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF experienced the highest net inflow at $6.84 million. Despite a sharp outflow of over $51.5 million from these ETFs recently, they have amassed nearly $12 billion in net inflows since their approval.
Although transaction volumes peaked on March 5th and have since declined, the sustained inflows and broader investment choices are likely to bolster Bitcoin’s price stability and encourage growth over the long term.
Impact of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Purchases on BTC Price and Investor Confidence
In addition to its existing Bitcoin holdings, MicroStrategy purchased an additional 122 Bitcoins in April for approximately $7.8 million, bringing its total holdings to 214,400 BTC. This move reinforces MicroStrategy’s position in the cryptocurrency market and its belief in the long-term potential of digital assets.
Despite a revenue dip in Q1, the company remains committed to its Bitcoin strategy, with CEO Michael Saylor emphasizing Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation. MicroStrategy’s stock has outperformed both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 since August 2020, demonstrating its strong faith in Bitcoin’s future.
Hence, MicroStrategy’s continued Bitcoin purchases and strong belief in its future potential could positively influence Bitcoin’s price by signaling confidence to other investors and institutions, driving increased demand and price stability.
Hong Kong Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch Boosts BTC Accessibility and Market Stability
The launch of the Hong Kong Spot Bitcoin ETF on April 30th marks a significant development in the region’s financial landscape, enhancing the global cryptocurrency market, particularly in relation to mainland China.
Unlike American counterparts, these Hong Kong ETFs can issue new shares backed directly by cryptocurrencies.
Despite the stringent regulations that limit participation from mainland China, this initiative signifies a growing integration of cryptocurrencies within established financial systems, potentially altering investment strategies in digital assets.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin opened today at $62,826, marking a drop of around 1.50%. Currently trading below its pivot point of $64,379, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $67,084, with further barriers at $68,734 and $70,968.
On the downside, support levels are identified at $61,062, $59,660, and $58,175. Technical indicators, including a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 43 and the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,353, hint at ongoing pressure.
Investors should note that a move above $64,375 could pivot the market sentiment to bullish, while a drop below this threshold may trigger a sharp sell-off.
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Why is Dogecoin price down today?
Dogecoin price is down today as the wider crypto market undergoes a sharp correction.
Notably, on April 27, DOGE's price dropped 4.82% to around $0.15, underperforming the crypto market, whose valuation fell 2.25% on the same day. The memecoin has plunged by 38% when measured from its local top of $0.229, established a month ago.
Declining rate cut prospects hurt Dogecoin demand
Dogecoin's drop today is part of a broader crypto market downtrend that started after the release of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) on April 25.
Notably, the U.S. economy’s growth was 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, against expectations of 2.5%. At the same time, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3% in March.
In response to these underwhelming economic indicators, swap traders have scaled back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024 to just 33 basis points, a significant reduction from the more than six quarter-point cuts expected earlier in the year.
Expectations of sustained high interest rates pushed the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note to 4.739% on April 24, its highest level in five months.
The yield has been hovering around the same level ever since, reducing the appeal of riskier crypto assets. For example, on the day the yield peaked, five spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) experienced outflows totaling $217 million.
Declining Dogecoin open interest and funding rates
Dogecoin open interest (OI) has dropped to $865.63 million on April 27 from its local peak of $2.21 billion from almost a month ago. Meanwhile, the funding rate is now 0.0063% per eight hours.
Together, both the decline in OI and the low funding rate points to a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. This indicates that traders are either taking a cautious approach due to uncertainty about Dogecoin’s future price movements or that the overall interest in trading Dogecoin with high leverage has diminished.
DOGE price technical pullback
Today's decline in Dogecoin's price seems to be a continuation of a selling trend that began when the price hit a resistance area marked by a descending trendline and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below).
In particular, the descending trendline resistance has capped DOGE's upside attempts multiple times in the past 30 days.
As of April 27, the cryptocurrency was testing its multi-week ascending trendline support for a potential rebound. Doing so will likely send the price toward the descending trendline resistance at around $0.159 by April's end.
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Nvidia shares up 15% in 5 days — Will AI crypto tokens follow?
The share price of Nvidia — one of the biggest producers of graphics processing units (GPUs) — has recovered by 15% this week, leading analysts to speculate whether “bottomed out” artificial intelligence (AI) crypto tokens will follow suit.
“This is absolutely insane,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter declared in an April 27 post on X, while pointing out the major climb seen in Nvidia’s market cap within the past trading week:
“The stock has jumped from a low of $756 to $880+, adding ~$320 BILLION in market cap,” it added.
Even though AI crypto tokens have faced price drops across the board, analysts are hopeful that Nvidia’s strong performance will have a positive effect, as they claim was the case in the previous market cycle.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto Stream explained in an April 26 post on X that his “base assumption” for investing in AI tokens revolves around the performance of Nvidia. Its anticipated Q1 2024 earnings report will be released publicly on May 22.
“Many TradFi investors are probably waiting for this data before making their next move. Don’t forget they felt a lot of FOMO when NVIDIA pumped non-stop,” they explained.
Meanwhile, Pseudonymous crypto trader CryptoGodJohn told their 668,100 X followers on April 27 that it “should be an exciting few weeks leading into the Nvidia earnings.”
“A lot of AI coins looking bottomed out here,” CryptoGodJohn further added.
Render (RNDR) is down 6.89% over the past 24-hours, while Fetch.AI (FET) dipped 6.12%, and SingularityNET (AGIX) has declined 5.47% over the same time period, according to CoinMarketCap data.
NVDA saw a recovery of 15% since the end of trading on April 19, when the stock closed at $762. By the end of the trading week on April 26, the share price had reached $877.
Within the past 24 hours alone, NVDA rose 6.18%, according to Google Finance data.
AI crypto tokens experienced price jumps after Nvidia’s strong performance was released in its fourth quarter 2023 earnings report in February.
On Feb. 26 reported that following Nvidia announcing breakout earnings, AI crypto tokens saw a surge in value. The firm announced revenue and earnings of $22.1 billion and $12.3 billion, respectively, in Q4 2023, representing increases of 265% and 769% compared with Q4 2022.
Just days before, on Feb. 22, it was reported that the total market cap of AI-based tokens swelled by over 9% to $17.8 billion since Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report and has risen from $7 billion earlier in the month.
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Bitcoin bull market may return in $1.4T US liquidity spike — Prediction
Bitcoin could see a “re-acceleration” of its bull market thanks to new United States economic shifts.
That is the latest macro forecast by Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX.
Hayes on crypto bull market: “Forget about the Fed”
Bitcoin and altcoins have little hope in the U.S. Federal Reserve dropping interest rates soon to attract more liquidity into the economy.
As reported, the odds of this happening sooner rather than later are becoming slimmer with each macro data print.
For Hayes, however, the Fed is no longer the U.S. yardstick worth watching — instead, it is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
On April 29, the U.S. Treasury will release the quarterly refunding documentation, which sets out how the government will effectively manage liquidity.
On the radar are two key liquidity sources: the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called Reverse Purchase Agreements (RRPs).
“As expected tax receipts added roughly $200bn to TGA,” Hayes wrote in a post on X on April 26.
“Forget about the May Fed meeting the 2Q24 refunding annc comes out next week.”
Draining either the TGA or money from the pool of RRPs allows for money to reenter the economy — a key stimulus for risk-asset performance, and specifically crypto upside.
Hayes argues that the focus is thus on Yellen as part of a theory, which calls for U.S. dollar printing to only accelerate toward the upcoming presidential election and afterward.
A $1 trillion TGA drain, $400 million in RRPs or a combination of both is on the table, potentially totaling a $1.4 trillion liquidity injection.
“The Fed is irrelevant, Yellen is a bad bitch, you best respect her,” Hayes concluded.
“If any of these three options happen, expect a rally in stonks and most importantly a re-acceleration of the crypto bull market.”
Bitcoin ETFs see "overdue” slowdown
Other players see the knock-on effect of Bitcoin’s mainstream entry becoming a positive feedback loop for price.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain far from their full captive audience — despite marking the most successful ETF debut in history.
Commenting on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest product by assets under management excluding the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas dismissed a recent cooling of inflows as cause for concern.
“While $ IBIT’s daily inflow streak is over at 71 days, it is not done setting records. Here’s a look at ETFs all time by assets after first 72 days on market,” he wrote alongside Bloomberg data.
“The league of own-ness of IBIT, FBTC et al shows how overheated it all was, a breather was overdue tbh.”
He added that “out of all the 10,698 registered funds in the U.S. (incl ETFs, mutual funds, CEFs) $IBIT currently ranks 2nd in YTD flows.”
While overall allocations remain small thus far, Cathie Wood, CEO of one spot Bitcoin ETF provider, ARK Invest, sees the trend gathering speed.
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BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF daily inflow hits $0 for the first time
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has notched its first day of $0 in inflows since Bitcoin ETFs were introduced in the United States in January.
Ever since its launch on Jan. 11, IBIT has consistently attracted investments worth millions of dollars daily — racking up nearly $15.5 billion in just 71 days. The inflow streak ended for BlackRock on April 24 after it recorded $0 of inflows.
Most of the other Bitcoin ETF participants witnessed a dry spell as well. Out of the 11 U.S.-registered Bitcoin ETFs, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) were the only two to record inflows of $5.6 million and $4.2 million, respectively.
Additionally, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) continued to bleed. On April 24, GBTC recorded $130.4 in outflows. As a result, the spot Bitcoin ETFs realized a net outflow of $120.6 million on the day.
While the lack of inflows is a first for IBIT, such isn’t uncommon among other ETF participants. Fidelity's FBTC, for example, has notched three days of $0 inflows in the last two weeks.
To date, the Bitcoin ETF market in the U.S. has accumulated a net $12.3 billion in Bitcoin. However, GBTC outflows have offset some of the inflows notched by the remaining 10 Bitcoin ETFs. As of Jan. 11, outflows from GBTC exceeded $17 billion.
Some of the Bitcoin ETF market participants are also in the process of applying for Ether ETFs in the U.S. However, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently delayed the approval decisions for several of them.
“The Commission finds that it is appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change, as modified by Amendment No. 1,” the agency wrote in its notice on April 23.
The SEC's decision on whether to allow the conversion of Grayscale’s ETH Trust to a spot ETH exchange-traded product on NYSE Arca has been extended by 60 days to June 23.
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Why is XRP price up today?
The price of XRP is up today, rising 2.5% in the last 24 hours and 6.95% week-to-date to reach an intraday high of $0.551 on April 23. One of the key news coinciding with XRP's price rally is Ripple's opposition brief in response to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s penalty demand of $2 billion.
Ripple thumbs down SEC's $2 billion penalty demand
XRP's price rise today coincides with Ripple's latest motion in the ongoing lawsuit against it by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning the illegal sales of XRP tokens to institutions.
On April 22, Ripple filed an opposition brief, seeking to lower the settlement costs to $10 million, a sharp decrease from the SEC's demand of $2 billion.
However, Ripple argued against the SEC's hefty penalty, noting that it had no gains to disgorge after tallying revenues from institutional sales, income taxes it paid, and losses it incurred. Moreover, the company cited the LBRY case, where the SEC demanded milder fines in similar regulatory disputes.
"Ripple’s conduct was not egregious," Ripple's lawyers said in their filing, adding:
"Its Institutional Sales were made to forty-one 'sophisticated individuals and entities' … over eight years. Those entities were fully informed about the transactions into which they were entering and chose to do so in their own financial interests. There is no allegation that Ripple deceived or misled them."
XRP bulls cheered Ripple's response, as evidenced by its price rally after the motion.
Capital rotation into XRP markets
XRP's price gains today are part of capital redistribution occurring within the crypto market. For instance, XRP has risen by approximately 25% versus Bitcoin two weeks after falling to its lowest level since January 2021.
XRP has largely lagged behind the market during the 2024 price rally. For instance, as of April 23, its year-to-date (YTD) returns were around -14 %. On the other hand, the crypto market's returns in the same period were +46.70%, led by Bitcoin's 57.30% growth.
As a result, some investors may view XRP's lower prices as an appealing investment opportunity. These investors might anticipate that XRP, currently underperforming, could potentially rebound and align with or even surpass the broader market's performance in the future.
XRP whale count rises
Today, XRP's price increase coincides with a significant buying activity from large investors, often called whales.
For instance, the number of whales holding at least 1 million and 100,000 XRP tokens increased substantially in April. The trend is similar among small investors, or fishes, with the number of entities holding at least 10,000 and 1,000 XRP tokens also rising.
Typically, such accumulations can signal anticipation of favorable developments or price movements as both retail and institutional investors position themselves to benefit from favorable market dynamics.
For instance, according to CoinShares' weekly report, XRP funds were among the only ones to witness capital inflows in the week ending April 19. In contrast, Bitcoin's and Ethereum's weekly net flows were negative, as shown below.
Next XRP price targets
From a technical perspective, XRP's rise today is part of a bounce originating from its multi-year ascending trendline support.
The cryptocurrency has bounced above its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA) at around $0.526. As of April 23, it was eyeing a close above the 50-week EMA (the red wave) at around $0.556 to retest its descending trendline resistance at $0.596.
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BTC price hits $65K as rumor Middle East tensions over boosts Bitcoin
Bitcoin saw flash volatility on April 19 as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East spilled into financial markets.
BTC price whipsaws into halving
Data showed new seven-week BTC price lows of $59,630 hitting after the April 18 daily close.
These accompanied renewed tensions between Iran and Israel — a particularly sensitive topic for Bitcoin this month, which fueled a major drawdown from $70,000.
As reported, the day prior, a modest recovery had been underway, this swiftly undone as markets reacted to the latest developments.
Amid rumors that the situation might not escalate further, BTC/USD staged an equally impressive rebound from the lows, reaching local highs of $65,190.
In ongoing coverage on X (formerly Twitter), popular trader Skew noted that both long and short BTC positions were being burned by the volatility.
“Shorts blown out here & now seeing more interest from longs aka longs opening,” part of his most recent post read.
Skew added that spot demand was currently driving the rebound, which was only around an hour old at the time of writing. Bids filled during the trip below $60,000, he said, were “sizable.”
Sell-side liquidity between $64,000 and $65,000 had been taken in an instant, with no significant blocks left near the spot price beyond a new wall of bids at $61,200.
“Doesn’t look like much but that’s $100M in BTC bids just moved up below price to support the move up,” fellow trader Credible Crypto continuedin part of his own X commentary.
“Good luck getting back in if you sold the bottom because of some news headline.”
Total cross-crypto short liquidations for the past 24 hours stood at $138 million.
Battle for Bitcoin weekly close is on
With so much attention focused on short-term price moves, Bitcoin’s imminent block subsidy halvingreceived surprisingly little consideration.
“Today is the eve of the BTC halving and the market appears to have formed a clearly defined baseline support level around the recent lows,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in part of its latest Asia Morning Color market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers.
With under 15 hours left until the seminal event, anticipation for a potential rally slowly returned to the radar.
“Operation ‘save the weekly’ started early this week,” trader Jelle summarized, referring to the upcoming weekly candle close.
For Crypto Ed, creator of trading platform CryptoTA, downside targets had been hit, leaving the door open for a sustained recovery.
“Okay, let me call the bottom here!” he told X followers.
“IF (big IF) no more big news coming from Middle East, I believe the bottom is in and BTC starting its next leg up and do a nice relief/halving rally!”
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Bitcoin drops as dollar eyes ‘best 5-day run’ in 14 months on expected rate cut hold
The United States dollar is eying its “best 5-day run” since February 2023, while Bitcoin has dropped over that time as interest rates are expected to remain high and the cryptocurrency sees volatility leading up to its April 20 halving.
The dollar’s strengthening is likely driven by expectations of sustained higher interest rates, according to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
“Less than a month ago, markets were anticipating the Fed to start cutting in June. Higher for longer is now the base case,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote in an April 17 X post.
Higher interest rates typically encourage foreign investors to take advantage of greater returns on bonds and term deposits, increasing the demand for the dollar.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) — which tracks the performance of a basket of 10 leading global currencies versus the U.S. dollar — has climbed by approximately 2% over the last 5 trading days, its largest increase in 14 months.
According to the BBDXY, the U.S. dollar index score stands at 106.34, an increase from 105.28 five days prior, which indicates that it has strengthened against the other nine currencies included in the index, including the euro, pound and Japanese yen.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has seen a 9% price decrease over the past five days to $63,936, per CoinMarketCap data.
While not always correlated, Bitcoin and the dollar have shown an inverse relationship over the years.
Reuters reported on April 16 that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the country’s inflation rate — currently 3.5% — is not moving toward the central bank’s 2% goal, meaning it’s “likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”
Meanwhile, trader Justin Spittler warned in an April 16 X post that each time the U.S. dollar has reached “overbought levels,” it has been swiftly followed by a significant correction.
Bitcoin, which is seen as a more volatile asset, usually sees spikes in demand when the dollar weakens.
However, another factor comes into play with the Bitcoin halving scheduled just three days away, slated for April 20 — a process that reduces the amount of BTC that can be mined per block by 50%.
Although this is halving, crypto investors are showing greater confidence in riskier crypto assets compared to the 2020 halving event, according to Bitcoin’s dominance chart.
Three days before the 2020 halving, Bitcoin dominance — a ratio of Bitcoin’s market cap compared to the cumulative market cap of all other cryptocurrencies — stood 15% higher than its current level.
The U.S. dollar was 6% weaker at the time compared to its current strength.
Bitcoin’s dominance is currently 52%, according to CoinStats.
Meanwhile, the five-day rise in the U.S. dollar has also seen the crypto market sentiment tracking Crypto Fear and Greed Index drop by 11 points since April 10.
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Why is the crypto market down today?
The cryptocurrency market is down today, with the total market capitalization falling by 8.7% to $2.17 trillion in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is leading the decline by falling 7.5% in the last 24 hours to reach around $62,160 on April 14. Ether, the second-largest crypto, has dipped 10.6% to trade around $2,900 in the same period.
Israel-Iran conflict spurs risk aversion
The crypto market’s recent 24-hour downturn is part of a broader correction that began on April 12. This period has coincided with escalating tensions between Iran and Israel following Iran’s launch of attack drones and missiles in retaliation for an Israeli strike in Syria.
Risk-on traders exercised extreme caution in the hours before and after the attack, moving capital away from riskier markets like crypto and seeking safety in safer havens like the U.S. dollar.
Consequently, the U.S. dollar, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, has appreciated by 0.79% since April 12.
The crypto market is stabilizing on April 14, taking cues from Iran's confirmation that it had concluded its military operations against Israel. Meanwhile, many analysts are confident that the market’s decline is "normal" and that it will soon resume its uptrend.
Nearly $2.5 billion worth of crypto positions liquidated
Since April 12, the crypto market has witnessed liquidations worth about $2.5 billion, including approximately $964 million worth of liquidations in the last 24 hours alone. Notably, long liquidations have significantly outnumbered short liquidations.
A predominance of long liquidations suggests that the crypto market was overleveraged on the bullish side, primarily due to growing euphoria around Bitcoin ETF inflows and the Bitcoin Halving 2024.
Traders borrowing capital to take larger positions in anticipation of market gains got caught in sudden market downturns prompted by the Iran-Israel conflict, leading to massive long liquidations. That exacerbated the crypto market's downside.
A technical correction?
Today's decline in the crypto market is also part of a corrective movement within what appears to be a bull flag pattern.
Since March 13, the market has consistently failed to surpass the upper trendline of the bull flag. Previous attempts to break above this level have led to declines toward the flag’s lower boundary.
As of April 14, the market was testing this lower trendline again, potentially setting the stage for a rebound toward the upper trendline — a jump from $2.15 trillion to over $2.5 trillion by April’s end. Meanwhile, more gains could follow if the market breaks above the flag’s upper trendline.
As a rule of technical analysis, bull flags are bullish continuation patterns that resolve when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the previous uptrend’s height. That puts the crypto market on a path to $3.1 trillion, up around 40% from current levels.
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Bitcoin ‘as strong as ever’ with record high 200-day moving average
Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average is at an all-time high of $50,178, a key technical indicator for predicting long-term Bitcoin price trends suggesting a bullish long-term outlook.
The indicator hit its peak on May 6, according to BuyBitcoinWorldwide. It comes as Bitcoin recovers from a post-halving price dip that saw it drop as low as $56,800 after the network’s block rewards were halved to 3.125 BTC on April 20.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) sums the last 200 days of Bitcoin’s closing price and divides it by 200 to iron out short-term price fluctuations, aiming to show traders and analysts a long-term trend indicator.
When BTC prices are trading above this indicator — as it is now — it typically suggests that the long-term trend is bullish, whereas the opposite is the case when prices drop below the 200-day moving average
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on May 6, Bitcoiner Anthony Pompliano commented on the 200-day moving average crossing $50,000 for the first time.
“Over the long run, Bitcoin continues to trend upward even though on a day-to-day basis that price is volatile.”
“Don’t get lulled to sleep by Bitcoin going sideways. The long-term thesis is as strong as ever,” he added in an X post.
According to analyst Willy Woo’s WooCharts pricemodels, the 200-week moving average, a much longer-term trend indicator, is also at an all-time high of just over $34,000 meaning that the yearly trend outlook is even more bullish.
The price of Bitcoin crossed the 200-week moving average level in mid-October and has been above it ever since. Spot prices are also significantly higher than the realized price (RP) indicator which is around $29,000.
The RP is a measure of the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of BTC in circulation and another long-term trend indicator.
However, the shorter-term 50-day moving average has dipped a little from its peak in mid-April as BTC dropped from its mid-March all-time high.
Pompliano also mentioned that the Grayscale spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) posted its first inflow on May 3.
The fund saw an inflow of $63 million after seeing net outflows of more than $17.5 billion since it was converted from a trust to a spot ETF in mid-January.
The momentum has continued. On April 6 the fund also posted an inflow, albeit a smaller one at $3.9 million, according to preliminary data from Farside Investors.
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FTX addresses transferred $8.3M one day before amended proposal deadline
Two wallets associated with the now-bankrupt FTX exchange and sister trading firm Alameda Research transferred a total of $8.3 million worth of cryptocurrency.
The FTX-associated address transferred 860 Tether Gold (XAUT) worth over $2 million to algorithmic trading firm Wintermute, while an Alameda-related wallet transferred a total of 2,027 Ether worth over $6.3 million, to two unknown addresses, according to a May 6 X post by PeckShield.
While the reason behind the transactions is unknown, they come a day ahead of FTX debtors’ deadline to file an amended version of the “Plan and Disclosure Statement,” slated for May 7.
The amended plan could offer FTX creditors more insights into how they will be compensated for their lost funds. The final deadline for objections is set for June 5.
The collapse of FTX and its over 130 subsidiaries is known as one of the crypto industry’s most notorious black swan events, which led to users losing at least $8.9 billion worth of funds. The collapse gave rise to one of the industry’s longest crypto winters when the Bitcoin price bottomed out at $16,000.
When will FTX creditors be repaid?
While FTX’s amended plan could shed more light on how customers will be made whole, some creditors are expecting negative news.
Popular FTX creditor Sunil, who is part of the largest group of over 1,500 FTX creditors — the FTX Customer Ad-Hoc Committee — has cautioned users to reject the upcoming plan, which will likely benefit the debtors. Sunil wrote in a May 5 X post:
“S&C [Sullivan & Cromwell] likely include clauses to absolve their liability for crimes. S&C puppet John Ray secures a position for himself. Property rights not recognized [for creditors].”
The warning comes nearly three months after top FTX creditors sued bankruptcy firm Sullivan & Cromwell (S&C). The creditors alleged that S&C took an active part in the “FTX Group’s multibillion-dollar fraud,” claiming the firm benefited financially from FTX’s fraud, a court filing on Feb. 16:
“S&C knew of FTX US and FTX Trading Ltd.’s omissions, untruthful and fraudulent conduct, and misappropriation of Class Members’ funds. Despite this knowledge, S&C stood to gain financially from the FTX Group’s misconduct and so agreed, at least impliedly, to assist that unlawful conduct for its own gain.”
To date, FTX creditors have sold over $490 million worth of claims through 507 transactions, according to data from crypto debt broker Claims Market.
The legal proceedings could potentially extend for several years before reaching a conclusion, mirroring the protracted case of the Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange, which experienced a notorious hacking incident in 2014. The users of the hacked exchange are still awaiting compensation.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Surges to $64,265, Eyeing $70,000 Milestone
In today’s crypto market update, Bitcoin (BTC/USD)demonstrates resilience with its current trading price of $64,265. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has seen an increase of 1.20%, accompanied by a trading volume of $18.59 billion.
Maintaining its position as the dominant cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s market capitalization now stands at approximately $1.27 trillion.
Several key technical indicators and patterns observed in recent trading sessions underscore the asset’s stability and upward potential.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin’s technical posture on the 4-hour chart illustrates a promising scenario for bulls. The pivotal point for today’s session is marked at $64,365.
A look at the broader market trends shows bullish Bitcoin price prediction recently as BTC surpassed the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61,999, a move that historically signifies a potential bullish phase.
Moreover, the presence of a ‘three white soldiers’ candlestick pattern suggests robust momentum, typically a precursor to continued price appreciation.
Despite this optimistic formation, a downward channel poses potential resistance around $63,200, which could temporarily hinder upward movement.
However, a decisive break above this channel could catapult Bitcoin towards its immediate resistance at $66,796. Further resistance lies at $69,328 and $71,180, marking critical points where sellers might step in to halt the advance.
Conversely, should Bitcoin falter and descend below its pivot point, it would initially face support at $61,735. Subsequent support levels are positioned at $59,550 and $56,625, crucial zones that could stabilize prices in case of a downturn.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61, suggesting that while Bitcoin is somewhat overbought, there is still room for upward movement before reaching extreme levels typically associated with pullbacks. This aligns with the bullish outlook, as the RSI does not yet indicate an overextended market.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s market position appears strong, with a likelihood of testing higher resistances if it maintains above $64,365.
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Bitcoin will 'propel the next leg up' if key trading pattern confirms — Traders
Bitcoin’s price could see a bullish trend reversal and “propel the next leg up” if the popular trading indicator known as the inverse head and shoulders pattern is confirmed, according to a crypto trader.
"If we don't break straight through $67.5k then something like this forming over the next month would make sense for a bottom pattern reversal,” crypto trader Matthew Hyland explained in a May 4 post on X.
He is referring to the inverse head and shoulders pattern — a bullish indicator which signals the downtrend is easing, and buyers are becoming more dominant in the market.
“It would be a great setup to propel the next leg up,” he declared.
Although it is crucial that Bitcoin holds above its short-term holder price of $59,500 to "maintain its bullish trend," pseudonymous crypto analyst and co-founder of CMCC Crest Willy Woo told his 1.1 million X followers on May 3.
The setup appears when Bitcoin’s price forms three troughs below a so-called neckline resistance, with the middle trough — otherwise known as the head — deeper than the left and right shoulder.
Bitcoin’s price has slightly rebounded from the “head" at $58,614 on May 1, and if the pattern continues as Hyland’s model suggests, it will find support around its second shoulder, at $60,000 — a key support level.
The decline would represent a 5% from its current price of $63,350, as per CoinMarketCap data. Dropping to this level would liquidate $530 million in long positions, according to CoinGlass data.
According to Hyland's model, Bitcoin may rise above the neckline and exceed its current all-time high of $73,800 by June.
On top of this, buyer interest in the crypto market is slowly increasing, according to the Fear and Greed Index.
The index is currently sitting on a "Greed" score of 69, a major recovery from three days ago when it indicated "Fear" with a score of 43.
Meanwhile, some traders expect Bitcoin's price to remain stagnant in the near term, but they don't necessarily view this as negative.
“The longer the Bitcoin consolidation takes, the higher its price will meet the trendline,” addedpseudonymous crypto trader Titan of Crypto.
“Bitcoin’s previous cycle all-time highs tend to slow down price and make Bitcoin stall for some weeks,” pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto Traders told his X followers in a May 4 post.
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BTC price chart seen mirroring US spot Bitcoin ETF launch pattern
Bitcoin recent decline has some similarities to its behavior post-United States ETF launch in January, with one trader suggesting that this could mean an upswing in the “next week or so.”
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) were launched in Hong Kong on April 30, seeing $217 million worth of net inflows since. However, the price of Bitcoin has fallen almost 7% since launch, according to CoinMarketCap data.
WhereAt Social co-founder and crypto trader Quinten Francois suggested the behavior bears similarities to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, which saw the price of Bitcoin fall 14% within 12 days of launch, before rising 7% over the following seven days.
If Bitcoin’s price continues to follow the same trend it could see an upswing in the “next week or so,” according to Francois in a May 1 post on X.
“There is no straight line to the top. Price correction was more than needed,” added pseudonymous crypto trader StockLizard.
However, there are some key differences between the two launches. While Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs have seen $217 million worth of net inflows since launching, U.S. ETFs experienced $794 million in outflows over the same period.
The Hong Kong-based ETFs also accumulated only $12.4 million in trading volume on their first day, a major difference from the $4.6 billion first-day trading volume of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Hong Kong’s ETF launch also comes just after the Bitcoin halving — which often comes with a period of “sideways” price action — along with continued heightened tensions in the Middle East and the United States Federal Reserve extending its period of interest rates within the nation.
However, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argued in an April 30 post on X that this is a high figure considering the size of Hong Kong is approximately “1/168th the size of the U.S.”
Some traders are concerned that inflows from Hong Kong might not be sufficient to offset the large amount of recent outflows from the U.S., potentially preventing a similar breakout pattern.
“Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs are not enough to absorb US ETF selling pressure,” Crypto trading team TOBTC stated in a May 2 post on X.
Meanwhile, other traders believe that the recent price decline is a healthy market correction for Bitcoin’s price.
“The longer theBitcoin consolidation takes the higher its price will meet the trendline,” crypto trader Titan of Crypto stated in a post on X.
“Bitcoin’s most recent correction was much needed for price going forward,” added crypto commentator CryptoCon.
“The thing Bitcoin critics don’t understand is that we simply don’t care if the price drops,” echoedfounder of AirBtc Handre van Heerden.
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Tether nets record $4.52 billion profit in Q1 2024 — majority from Bitcoin and gold
Tether Holdings, the company behind the world’s largest stablecoin, reported a record net profit of $4.52 billion in the first quarter of 2024.
Tether also revealed its net equity for the first time, which stands at $11.37 billion as of March 31. This represents a significant increase from the $7.01 billion worth of equity recorded at the end of December 2023, according to Tether’s attestation report for the first quarter of 2024.
Approximately $1 billion stemmed from operating profits derived from United States treasury holdings, while the remainder of $3.52 billion comprised the market-to-market gains in the firm’s Bitcoin and gold positions.
Tether’s USDT is the world’s largest stablecoin worth over $110 billion according to CoinMarketCapdata. The company issued $12.5 billion worth of USDT in the first quarter of the year.
The report also revealed a $1 billion increase in excess reserves that are maintained as a buffer to support the company’s stablecoin offerings. Tether’s excess reserves stood just below $6.3 billion.
The report further revealed over $104 billion worth of liabilities related to “digital tokens issued,” while the value of Tether’s reserve assets exceeded the value of its liabilities by over $6.2 billion, as of March 31.
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Solana memecoin hits a whopping $328T market cap — but for all the wrong reasons
With just over 1,000 holders, an obscure Solana-based memecoin has apparently become the highest market cap asset in the world at $328 trillion. The catch? It’s a honeypot scam and no one can sell.
The honeypot memecoin launched on April 29, with BONKKILLER tallying around $4.6 million in trading volume over the last 24 hours. More than 90% of the tokens are held by the creator, according to cryptocurrency analytics platform Birdeye.
Unfortunately, many investors who bought the memecoin quickly realized that they can't move any of it after the developer put on “freeze authority” — which allows them to prevent tokens from being transferred.
“[BONKKILLER], a scam and honeypot token, surpasses $100 trillion Market Cap following developer action to freeze token holders' accounts and prevent token sales,” said Solana-focused news platform SolanaFloor in an April 29 X post.
A honeypot is a type of scam that lures investors with high-profit potential but prevents them from selling.
For perspective, $328 trillion is 3.28 times more than the entire global domestic gross product, which sits at $100 trillion, according to Worldometer.
Nonfungible token enthusiast “thirt13n” was among those who pointed out the memecoin isn’t actually backed by that much fiat and the marketcap metric is useless if tokenholders cannot sell.
“Bullshit metrics. if you are unable to sell, its worth $0.”
Despite several platforms notifying investors of the honeypot scam, traders continue to buy BONKKILLER tokens, Birdeye data shows.
The creator has also pulled $1.62 million in funds from victims across 11 transactions, per on-chain data.
BONKKILLER is just the latest example of a memecoin rug pull or honeypot scam tricking gullible users.
An investigation found one in six memecoins on the Ethereum layer two scaling solution Base are scams, or have characteristics as such, and that 91% of the memecoins analysis possessed at least one security vulnerability.
However, they could also reflect a creator’s lack of knowledge about proper security procedures, especially if they’ve launched a token as a joke or to troll the industry.
Blockchain scam prevention tools have been developed to detect potential honeypots by performing smart contract and token analysis in real-time.
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Bitcoin Price Chops Either Side of $64,000 Following Latest US Inflation Report – Here’s What You Need To Know
The Bitcoin (BTC) price chopped either side of the $64,000 level on Friday in the wake of the latest US inflation data report, which showed the Core PCE index rising 0.3% MoM in March, in line with the market’s expectations.
A MoM inflation rate of 0.3% translates to an annualized inflation rate of around 3.6%. That’s well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, pointing to still uncomfortably high inflation in the US.
Economists highlighted that stubbornly high housing and utility inflation could keep MoM price pressures elevated for some time.
That will likely encourage the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Given the strong data reports in recent weeks (manufacturing PMI, jobs, etc.), it’s no surprise to see the DXY and US bond yields near multi-month highs.
The unfavorable macro backdrop, where markets are pricing stickier inflation and a Fed that is more reluctant to cut rates signals a near-term headwind for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has historically performed better in an environment of falling US yields and a falling US dollar.
There is some evidence that the US economy is slowing, however. This week’s flash PMI report showed weakness in economic activity in April. And the latest GDP numbers for Q1 were a disappointment.
Until that weakness translates into lower inflation, the Fed will likely remain cautious about rate cuts, which will remain a headwind for BTC.
Bitcoin Price Analysis – Where Next for BTC?
The Bitcoin price is currently locked near the lower bounds of its multi-week $60,000 to $74,000 range.
BTC has held this range despite recent macro headwinds and slowing ETF flows which clocked in at $217 million on Thursday.
Some have cited strength in stablecoin growth as indicative of still strong inflows into the crypto market.
As per DeFi Llama, the stablecoin market cap is at its highest since June 2022, at $158 billion.
That’s a $34 billion rise since the end of October, and continued growth could keep the Bitcoin price buoyed.
Any weakness in stablecoin growth could be a harbinger of a lower Bitcoin price to come.
Bitcoin is currently at risk of slipping below its range lows around $60,000, which would open the door to a drop towards support at $53,000.
Bitcoin’s Long-term Bull Thesis Remains
In the long term, however, most people are confident that Bitcoin will enter a bull market.
Last week saw Bitcoin’s fourth quadrennial halving take place. The cut in BTC issuance rate from prior halvings has, without fail, helped propel the price to new all-time highs within a few quarters.
Breaking from its prior historical pattern, Bitcoin hit all-time highs ahead of the halving this time, thanks to ETF demand.
That arguably raises the risk of a post-halving correction. But it shouldn’t damage the long-term outlook.
The long-term trend stays towards increased TradFi adoption and investment into the asset, accelerated now by the availability of ETFs.
Macro, too, will be a major long-term tailwind. Unsustainable borrowing by major economies means global currency debasement is set to continue.
Amid the growing narrative that Bitcoin is “digital gold,” as promoted by Wall Street giants like BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Bitcoin will be a big winner, along with other hard assets.
All the while, Bitcoin will continue to benefit from its technological adoption.
Globally, more and more people understand the utility of decentralized, censorship-resistant, borderless, and permissionless payment technology.
Crypto firms, meanwhile, continue to build out their centralized and decentralized platforms, enhancing Bitcoin’s utility and accessibility to the masses.
Bitcoin is likely to challenge $100,000 sometime in 2024 or 2025.
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Over 30 People Charged In $24M Crypto Fraud Linked to Taiwan’s ACE Exchange
Taiwan prosecutors charged 32 individuals with fraud and money laundering linked to ACE Exchange, the Taipei Times reported Friday.
The Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office indicted key figures involved with the exchange. These include founder David Pan, his business partner Lin Keng-hong, and former chairman Wang Chen-huan.
In a staggering fraud, prosecutors estimate over 1,200 people lost a combined total of NT$800m ($24.56m).
Prosecutors allege that starting in 2019, the suspects convinced investors to buy NFTC tokens, bitnature coins, mochange (a token created by ACE Exchange), and other tokens. They are also accused of creating white papers and other materials to make their scheme appear legitimate.
In addition to promoting the tokens, Pan and Lin allegedly promised to turn ACE Exchange into Asia’s leading ecosystem for crypto trading. However, many investors saw their tokens lose significant value.
These investors, finding they were unable to convert their tokens back to Taiwanese dollars as promised, reportedly filed complaints triggering a judicial investigation.
ACE Exchange didn’t return Cryptonews’ request for comment by press time.
Prosecutors Recommend 20-Year Sentences for Core Figures in Crypto Fraud Case
According to authorities, the suspects engaged in a two-pronged scheme to defraud investors. First, they advertised tokens aggressively across various media channels, while manipulating their exchange prices to create an illusion.
Then, after selling these tokens and other blockchain products for a total exceeding NT$2.2b ($72.54m), prosecutors allege the suspects directed others to conceal the money across various locations, including a real estate purchase in Yilan County.
Prosecutors further alleged that Wang, while implicated in the scheme, received around NT$43m ($1.3m). They claim Wang attempted to manipulate the market by putting NT$26m $791k) back into the exchange to inflate token prices.
Given the severity of the fraud and the number of victims, prosecutors recommended at least 20 years imprisonment for the core suspects, including Pan and Lin. For Wang, prosecutors suggested a minimum sentence of 12 years, considering his position as a director at a known law firm and his alleged involvement in facilitating the scam.
Authorities Bust Alleged $10.7M Crypto Fraud at ACE Exchange
Earlier this month, authorities indicted Pan and six othersfor crypto fraud involving digital assets worth $10.7m.
In this case, investigators revealed that the founder of Ace Exchange established an offshore trading platform that provided a crypto wallet service called “Alfred Wallet.” This service allegedly enticed unsuspecting victims to deposit their funds. However, investors lost access to their funds once they were deposited.
The trading platform claimed that Pan is a former executive who’s involvement in the exchange ended as of 2022.
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Bitcoin short liquidation risk surges as BTC price dips under $64K
Bitcoin traded lower on April 25 after a fresh knee-jerk reaction to geopolitical news cost bulls up to 5%.
BTC price stays sensitive to Middle East
Data showed BTC price action attempting to form support at $64,000 prior to the Wall Street open.
This followed a dip to $63,575 around the previous daily close, resulting from renewed Middle East tensions.
According to the latest figures from monitoring resource CoinGlass, liquidity increased on both sides of the spot price across crypto exchanges on the day.
Notably, a large cloud of asks had appeared, beginning with around $75 million at $64,765 and laddering up to $67,700.
To the downside, there was comparatively modest bid interest focused on $63,500 — the local low.
Bitcoin managed to fill one of two recently-created CME Group futures gaps with its latest downside.
Commenting on the current status quo, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades reiterated the “healthy” state of funding rates as a basis for a slow but steady BTC price recovery going forward.
“Keep it this way as we grind up and we should have a solid base for higher. Don’t want to see longs ape back in on the next best green candle,” he wrote in part of commentary on X alongside CoinGlass data.
In the latest edition of its “New York Color” market updates sent to Telegram channel subscribers on April 24, trading firm QCP Capital revealed shifting crypto sentiment on low-timeframes.
“The market is expecting upside to be capped and for spot price to consolidate in the short term,” it wrote.
Bitcoin ETF flows tread water
Meanwhile, the United States’ spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to net outflows on April 24.
These were driven mostly by outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), data from sources including United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside shows.
In an unusual event, as reported, the largest ETF offering from asset manager BlackRock saw zero inflows.
Spot ETFs are due to begin trading in Hong Kong on April 30, marking another first for Bitcoin institutional adoption.
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Binance founder should be jailed for 36 months, US prosecutors say
As the United States authorities are preparing to give a sentence to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao on April 30, prosecutors have requested jail time for the former CEO.
Binance founder Zhao should serve 36 months in prison after pleading guilty to violating laws against money laundering, U.S. prosecutors said in a court filing on April 23.
“Given the magnitude of Zhao’s willful violation of U.S. law and its consequences, an above-guideline sentence of 36 months is warranted,” the prosecutors wrote in the filing to the U.S. district court for the Western District of Washington.
“That sentence, together with the agreed $50 million fine, is sufficient but not greater than necessary to balance the relevant 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) factors and achieve the goals of sentencing,” the filing added.
Zhao pleaded guilty to violating money launderingrequirements in the U.S. and stepped down from the CEO position at Binance in November 2023. Zhao also subsequently faced a $50-million fine served directly to him, in addition to larger penalties to Binance.
According to online reports, federal sentencing guidelines set a maximum sentence of 18 months in prison for Zhao, who had agreed not to appeal against any stretch up to that length. He has been free in the U.S. on a $175-million bond.
After CZ admitted to violating U.S. money laundering laws, he and Binance agreed to pay the U.S. government $4.3 billion in fines to end the criminal case. In return, Binance was allowed to continue operating while complying with U.S. laws.
Despite stepping down from Binance, CZ remains involved in the cryptocurrency industry. In March, Zhao announced a new educational project devoted to crypto and blockchain, stressing that the initiative will have “no new tokens.”
Named Giggle Academy, the project specifically targets a much younger population, or two- to three-year-olds, according to a CZ post on X on April 18.
On April 24, CZ showcased the logo of his new educational project. “We wanted the Giggle Academy logo to show youth, fun, positive energy, and growth. We also want to show respect to our ‘Binance heritage,’” CZ wrote.
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Bitcoin halving: Why it’s important for BTC scarcity
The fourth-ever Bitcoin halving occurred a few hours ago at the 840,000th block. The halving is considered the most important economic mechanism influencing Bitcoin supply and creating scarcity for the asset.
The Bitcoin network’s fourth halving event, reduced block issuance rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per mined block, effectively slashing Bitcoin’s issuance rate in half.
The halving is a crucial mechanism for Bitcoin’s scarcity and market valuation, according to Karim Chaib, the CEO of crypto platform Dopamine App. Chaib told Cointelegraph:
“Scarcity is a fundamental economic principle that affects the value of an asset. By programmatically ensuring that the supply of Bitcoin increases at a slower rate over time, the halving events underscore Bitcoin's scarcity.”
The halving is hard-coded in Bitcoin’s code base, which happens every 210,000 blocks mined, which equates to roughly every four years.
The Bitcoin network witnessed its first halving in 2012 when the Bitcoin’s issuance rate was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per mined block. The last two halvings occurred in 2016 and 2020, significantly slashing Bitcoin’s issuance rate to the current 3.125 BTC.
This hard-coded scarcity makes Bitcoin stand out from traditional store-of-value assets, according to Chaib, who told:
“This programmed scarcity is a key feature that differentiates Bitcoin from traditional assets like gold, which can become less scarce as new means of extraction and production are developed. Bitcoin, by contrast, has a capped supply of 21 million coins, making it fundamentally inflation-proof.”
Is Bitcoin the next gold?
Bitcoin’s economic design and halving mechanism are effective mathematical methods to make Bitcoin a deflationary asset, which makes it the first reliable alternative to gold, according to Jonas Simanavicius, co-founder and CTO at Syntropy. He told:
“Gold has served for thousands of years as the primary store of wealth because it is difficult to increase its supply and it is global... Nothing else came close to having a predictably slow-growing supply—until Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin price rose 122% during the past year, while Gold price rose 19%. During 2024, Bitcoin is up over 51% year-to-date (YTD), while Gold price increased 15% YTD, according to TradingView.
Precious metals and real estate were considered the best store of value assets throughout the years. But the digital age is seeking more liquid assets for faster movements, which will ultimately benefit Bitcoin, said Simanavicius:
“Over time, Bitcoin has not only survived, but its backing power of extensive computation and decentralization has also grown so strong that more people and institutions recognize this security, and the benefits such as immediate transactability, geopolitical decentralization, and ease of carry outweigh those of other asset classes.”
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Have altcoins hit the bottom? Bitcoin price bounces 5% from $59.7K low
Bitcoin tapped $63,000 before the April 18 Wall Street open as modest BTC price strength boosted traders’ mood.
Analysis: BTC price lows may be "tricking" investors
Data showed BTC/USD reaching $63,095 on Bitstamp, up 5.5% versus the prior day’s lows.
At $59,700, these represented Bitcoin’s lowest levels since early March.
While various forecasts saw the need to clear liquidity at $57,000 and even far lower going forward, some saw reason for mild optimism.
Among them was popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who reiterated that BTC/USD was in a “re-accumulation range” with price behavior to match.
“One of the key things to note about Bitcoin's Re-Accumulation Ranges throughout this cycle is this: Downside wicks below the Range Lows tend to occur to trick investors into a fake-breakdown (black circles) before resuming into an uptrend,” he wrote alongside a chart on X (formerly Twitter).
The chart itself showed similar BTC price action at several points beginning at the pit of the 2022 bear market. Each time, price produced a local low before making significant enduring gains.
Eyeing on-chain signals, fellow trader Jelle drew similar conclusions about what lay ahead.
“Bitcoin just tested the 3-day RSI 50 level and the 3d 33EMA, at the same time,” he told X followers, referring to the relative strength index (RSI) and 33-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 3-day timeframes, respectively.
“The last time this happened was at $38,000, earlier this year. Pretty sure the result will be similar: higher prices.”
Altcoins battle brutal downtrend
Continuing, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, predicted that sideways BTC price moves would continue even after the upcoming block subsidy halving.
Altcoins bore the brunt of the latest crypto market correction and could now have seen the worst of their shake-out.
“The period of boredom for Bitcoin, which is eager to consolidate here,” he explained.
“Overall, I'm expecting this won't change for the coming months, but I think we're at the altcoin bottom.”
Van de Poppe gave the areas around $52,000 and $45,000 as potential targets in the event of a deeper correction.
The total altcoin market cap stood at $256.7 billion at the time of writing, up nearly 17% from two-month lows seen on April 13 but still struggling to break a strong downtrend.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Bounces 10% From Recent Bottom – New Rally Starting?
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, recently showcased its resilience by rebounding above $66,270, a significant recovery from a recent low of $62,000. This downturn was initially triggered by the onset of the Iran-Israel conflict, causing substantial liquidations among crypto investors. With that in mind, Bitcoin price predictionseems bearish, ahead of Bitcoin haling event.
Despite this, Bitcoin swiftly recouped its losses, propelled by the anticipation of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving event around April 20—an event historically known to precipitate significant bullish momentum in the market.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies climbed to $2.42 trillion, reflecting a 24-hour increase of 4.76%. Alongside Bitcoin, other major cryptocurrencies like Polkadot and Uniswap witnessed over 10% gains.
Nevertheless, the volatile market saw about $1.5 billion in bullish positions liquidated during the weekend, underscoring the high stakes and unpredictability amidst geopolitical tensions. This instability challenges the notion of cryptocurrencies as stable safe havens during global crises.
Impact of Recent Bitcoin Transfers from Dormant Wallets on BTC Price
Recent transfer of 50 Bitcoins by a long-time cryptocurrency miner, after 14 years of dormancy, has caught the attention of the cryptocurrency community. This significant transaction, now valued at over $3 million, reflects the early days of Bitcoin when each token was worth only a few dollars.
This event is part of a trend where old Bitcoin wallets are becoming active again, hinting at potential market impacts and highlighting the historical significance of Bitcoin’s early years.
Therefore, the recent transfer of 50 Bitcoins from a long-dormant wallet, along with similar movements from old Bitcoin wallets, could impact BTC’s price due to market attention and increased liquidity from these significant transactions.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Today’s analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) reflects a moderate upswing, with its price currently at $65,990, marking a 0.50% increase. The cryptocurrency navigates a complex landscape, with its immediate pivot point set at $66,610.
Surpassing this level could expose Bitcoin to resistance marks at $68,729, followed by $71,532, and potentially reaching up to $73,698. On the downside, crucial supports are positioned at $62,407, $58,829, and further down at $55,754, indicating substantial fallback zones if bearish trends take hold.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 suggests neutral momentum, neither particularly bullish nor bearish. Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $68,566, hovering above the current price, suggesting that Bitcoin needs to surpass this average to regain a stronger bullish outlook.
In summary, Bitcoin’s current technical stance indicates a tentative market with potential for volatility, contingent on breaking key resistance or support levels.
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Bitcoin nose dive as political tensions escalate in the Middle East
Bitcoin price plummeted over 8.4% on April 13 after Iran launched an attack on Israel, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.
The cryptocurrency price dropped from around $67,000 to $61,625, wiping out over $130 million in market capitalization within minutes following the attack.
The sell-off is also affecting other cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Ether was down 9.81% to $2,927, while Solana sank 15.96% to $129. According to CoinMarketCap data, the global crypto market capitalization declined 8.19% to $2.23 trillion.
According to Bloomberg, Iran launched drones toward Israel on Saturday. The move is a retaliation for an attack conducted by Israel days before. Israel attacked a diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranians, including two generals.
Aside from the airstrikes, Iranian authorities have reportedly seized a cargo ship owned by a billionaire Israeli.
United States president Joe Biden warned on April 12 that Iran would launch attacks “sooner than later,” highlighting the United States would help defend Israel:
“We are devoted to the defense of Israel. We will support Israel, we will help defend Israel, and Iran will not succeed.”
The conflict between Iran and Israel significantly escalates tensions in the region, something the U.S. has been reportedly trying to prevent since October’s Israel-Hamas conflict.
U.S. officials have been urging Israel not to escalate tensions in their responses to Iran, a government source told CNN. The officials also expressed frustration with the lack of prior information Israel provided regarding its airstrike in Damascus. Israel only informed a U.S. official when its planes were already en route to Syria, sources said.
“We were not aware that Israel was going to carry out this airstrike in advance,” the official stated. “Minutes before it happened and when Israeli planes were already in the air, Israel reached out to a U.S. official to say they were in the process of conducting a strike in Syria. It did not include any details on who they were targeting or where it would be conducted, and the strike was already underway before word could be passed through the U.S. government.”
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