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Bitcoin Cash open interest folds 47% since halving as price slides
Bitcoin Cash Open Interest (OI) and its price have plummeted in the seven days since its halving, erasing a brief stint of extra momentum leading up to the April 4 event.
On April 12, the OI for Bitcoin Cash sat at $378.3 million, down by a massive 47% from its peak of $708.5 million before the BCH halving, as per CoinGlass data.
The decline in OI coincided with a 13% drop in the price of BCH.
The majority of its price decline occurred on April 10, with a steep drop of 7.51% within a three-hour window, after four days of tight fluctuation between $676 and $691, as per CoinMarketCap data.
The behavior is a complete flip on the week after the 2020 halving event, it’s first-ever halving. At the time, Bitcoin Cash saw upward momentum, rising 4.7%, while OI rose 10% to $73.86 million.
Back then, Bitcoin Cash was just under 3 years old. However, there have been debates over Bitcoin Cash’s use cases, mainly its lower transaction processing costs and reduced energy requirements for verifying new blocks.
The Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash communities have been seen clashing again.
On March 18, Blockstream CEO Adam Back asked early Bitcoin adopter Roger Ver in a post on X to rejoin the Bitcoin community after he left for the Bitcoin Cash community a number of years ago.
“Join the f*cking party @rogerkver it's just warming up. you know you want to. you don't have to go it alone, be the prodigal son and return.”
Roger Ver, commonly known as “Bitcoin Jesus,” is a strong advocate for Bitcoin Cash, claiming it aligns more closely with Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision for Bitcoin.
Ver argues that Bitcoin Cash is better positioned to serve as both a store of value and a currency due to its lower transaction fees.
Meanwhile, many investors are taking positions in Bitcoin, eagerly anticipating a rise as the halving approaches next week.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s OI stands at $34.89 billion, which is approximately 15 times higher than it was eight days before the halving in May 2020.
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‘Unsustainable’ deficit, inflation means more demand for Bitcoin: Grayscale
Store of value assets, such as Bitcoin, will continue to be a hot commodity as the United States government continues to overspend and keep interest rates high, according to Grayscale’s managing director of research Zach Pandl.
“We expect persistent inflation and unsustainable budget deficits to contribute to continued demand for store of value assets, like Bitcoin,” Pandl told.
Pandl argued that given the current high inflation, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce interest rates anytime soon. However, upcoming events like the Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 20, as well as rising economic growth and more crypto adoption will fuel Bitcoin’s price.
“The Fed won’t be able to cuts rates for a while with core inflation this high, but booming nominal growth, the Bitcoin halving, and adoption trends like tokenization should create a supportive environment for crypto markets.”
The inflation in March rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.5% year-over-year, versus 0.3% monthly increase and 3.4% year-over-year estimates from the Dow Jones economists survey show.
The outcome left many disappointed, as commentators resonated with Pandl's concerns that persistent high inflation rates will hinder the Fed from lowering interest rates in the near future.
EY chief economist Greg Daco told Yahoo Finance that the higher inflation rates puts more pressure on “policymakers to sustain a higher-for-longer monetary policy stance.”
Pandl, however also says that while an increase in the real interest rate is a “short-term negative for crypto,” there will be continued demand for store-of-value assets over the longer term.
From a macro perspective, the 10-year real interest rate soared by 19% from the previous month to 1.934, up from February’s 1.616, which might be a catalyst for prompting investors to gravitate towards less volatile assets such as bonds and term deposits.
There have been several instances over the years when the 10-year real interest rate experienced a major monthly spike, and Bitcoin’s price significantly dropped in correlation.
The 10-year real interest rate surged by 52.35% from December 2017 to January 2018, rising from 0.573 to 0.873, as per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s price fell sharply during this period, from approximately $12,839 at the end of December 2017 to $9,240 by the end of January 2018, representing a 28% decline.
Following the release of the most recent CPI information, Bitcoin experienced a minor downward shift in its price, mirroring a similar sentiment from investors.
Data shows that the BTC price dropped as much as 2.5% on April 10 to an intra-day low of $67,463 on Coinbase.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s price stands at $70,640, as per CoinMarketCap data.
In an April 11 post on X, Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland identified the formation of an ascending triangle on the Bitcoin price chart, noting that Bitcoin has established a new resistance level above $71,500, reaching $72,329 on April 8.
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Ethereum boosts 8% amid ‘ultra-strong’ social and market activity
Ether accelerated 8% in spot crypto markets on Monday amid an uptick in social sentiment and optimism among derivatives traders.
Ether prices have gained around 8% over the past 24 hours, with the asset hitting an intraday high of $3,722 on April 9, outpacing Bitcoin and most of its closest peers, according to CoinGecko.
It is the highest price ETH has reached since March 16, just over three weeks ago. The asset is now 9% away from its 2024 high of $4,070 and 24% down from its 2021 all-time high of $4,878.
Comparatively, Bitcoin prices have moved 3% over the past day reaching $71,395 at the time of writing.
Ethereum’s momentum may have been spurred by several factors, including “ultra-strong” social and market activity, according to social intelligence firm Lunar Crush.
“Social activity continues to accelerate, joined by both strong price action and market volume,” it noted in a post on X on April 8.
Meanwhile, Ethereum derivatives markets are also hinting at bullish sentiment for the asset for the rest of this month.
There is currently around $600 million in open interest (OI) at the $4,000 strike price and $378 million at strike prices of $3,700 and $5,000, according to crypto futures exchange Deribit.
This shows an upside bias and bullish sentiment for the end-of-the-month options expiry on April 26, when around 900,000 Ethereum contracts expire with a notional value of $3.8 billion.
Not everyone is so bullish, however. Crypto author and educator Vijay Boyapati opined in a post on X on April 8 that the premise of Ethereum spot ETF approvals is driving momentum, but it could be short-lived if they get rejected.
“All the hot money that flowed into ETH because of ETF hopium is going to go back into Bitcoin once the Ethereum ETFs are all rejected…”
On April 9, on-chain analytics firm Santiment observed that “powered by Ethereum’s rise to start the week,” ERC-20 assets have been “well ahead of the markets on average,” the sector has grown by 8.1% in the past week.
Meanwhile, Toncoin (TON) has flipped Cardano to take the tenth spot by market capitalization following an 18.5% daily gain to hit an all-time high of $6.50 on April 9.
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ETH to spike post halving, ETF denial would not ‘be bearish’ — Analysts
Crypto analysts are betting that Ether’s price could see a significant upswing within months after the Bitcoin halving despite being down 11.39% over the past 30 days, based on historical data.
One researcher also thinks that a potential exchange-traded fund (ETF) denial won’t necessarily lower prices.
“If the ETF is denied, it will not be that bearish, as the market is not pricing in it yet, and we still have Bitcoin ETFs as the entrance for traditional funds,” Hashkey Capital head of Research Jupiter Zheng told.
However, Zheng believes if a spot Ether ETF is approved with staking, it will be “really bullish.”
He explained that an approval could trigger a surge in short liquidations, potentially driving up the price further.
The steep decline in Ether’s price this week has led to $39.13 million in long positions being liquidated over the past 24 hours, as per CoinGlass data.
At its current price of $3,293, just a 1.5% drop to $3,250 will see $70.96 million in liquidations.
Although he forecasts that it will not have a large impact on ETH futures open interest, as the market is “not betting hard on it.”
There is currently $12.89 billion in Ether futures open interest (OI). Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approximately 2.5x larger in OI at $31.744 billion.
Meanwhile, popular trader Jelle has observed a trend in Ether’s price chart leading up to the Bitcoin halving on April 20, which he said is reminiscent of the pattern before the previous Bitcoin halving.
“The last Bitcoin halving was ETH’s sign to start running hard,” crypto trader Jelle stated.
The last Bitcoin halving happened on May 11, 2020, which saw Ether’s price sitting around $210. By Aug. 14, just three months later, ETH had surged to $433, marking a 106% price increase, per CoinMarketCap data.
Jelle identified a clear ascending triangle forming on Ether’s price chart since June 2023, seen on a zoomed-out view from May 2020, signaling a potential surge ahead.
Meanwhile, Zheng forecasted that the “ETH season is yet to come.”
However, recent reports suggest that there is less optimism about the approval of spot Ether ETFs following the United States Securities and Exchange Commission investigating the Ethereum Foundation.
On March 20, reported that the SEC issued several subpoenas to companies that have worked with the Ethereum Foundation. Sources familiar with the matter said the commission had launched a campaign to classify ETH as a security in 2022.
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Bitcoin headed for ‘screwy price action’ after 64% surge in first quarter
Bitcoin recorded one of its strongest quarters in the past three years in Q1, but analysts warn this could lead to significant volatility in the lead-up to the Bitcoin halving.
“Be prepared for some screwy price action as we head into the halving,” crypto analyst Phoenix Desmond told his 11,700 X followers in a post on April 3.
Bitcoin experienced a 64% price increase during the first quarter of 2024 — Jan. 1 to March 31 — its third-best quarter over the past three years, as per Kaiko Research data.
At the beginning of the quarter, it stood at $44,172 on Jan. 1, and by the quarter’s end, it had reached $71,255.
However, Desmond argues that the consistent pattern of outperforming price performance in weekly and monthly closings signals unprecedented market conditions.
“Never before have we seen such a strong weekly, monthly, and quarterly close above previous ATH only to retrace so far so fast,” Desmond declared.
In the last two weekly closes, on March 17 and March 31, Bitcoin surged by 6.09%, climbing from $67,234 to $71,333, as per Yahoo Finance data.
The Bitcoin halving is just 16 days away — set to happen on April 20 — and is stirring speculation it could trigger further upward movement in the second quarter of 2024, due to the expected supply shock.
However, investor sentiment regarding the short-term direction of Bitcoin’s price seems to be rather neutral.
Over the past 24 hours, liquidations on both short and long positions remained fairly balanced, at $16.27 million and $16.77 million respectively, as per CoinGlass data.
If Bitcoin’s price rises by just 1.5% to $66,687, approximately $57.08 million will be liquidated.
If it goes the other way, dropping by just 1% to $65,013, $35.14 million will be liquidated.
Popular pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes that Bitcoin may not follow the same trajectory as it did in the previous quarter, and at best, it could see resistance levels close to the all-time highs of the first quarter.
“BTC may consolidate between $60k & $70k for the coming weeks going into the Halving and beyond,” Rekt Capital said in a March 3 post on X.
While the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11 by several of the world’s largest asset management firms has heightened interest and speculation around Bitcoin’s price, some foresee a potential narrative shift.
“Most likely not Bitcoin,” founder of MN trading consultancy Michael van de Poppe told his 710,600 X followers in a post on April 4:
“Pre-Halving Bitcoin interest, Spot ETF launch causing additional liquidity. This is slowing down, back to normal price levels, after which a new narrative is likely going to surge.”
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Ethereum earnings tripled in Q1 2024, reaching $370M
Ethereum, the biggest blockchain network by transaction volume, posted major growth in the first quarter of 2024, seeing positive signs in most income statement metrics.
According to data from Coin98 Analytics, Ethereum tripled its earnings in Q1 2024 on a quarter-over-quarter basis, reaching $369 million. The amount accounted for a 210% increase year-over-year from $119 million in Q1 2023.
Ethereum Q1 2024 fees and revenues increased 79% and 85% quarter-over-quarter, respectively. According to the data, Ethereum racked up $1.2 billion in revenue from transaction fees in Q1 2024, which is 155% more than in the first quarter of last year.
Total Ethereum revenue amounted to $1 billion in Q1 2024, surging 186% from last year’s $385 million.
Ethereum’s success in Q1 2024 came amid the cryptocurrency nearing all-time prices in March, which triggered a massive spike in transaction costson the network.
As Ethereum surged above $3,000 in late February, some users reported paying over $100 in transaction fees at peak times.
As of March 1, the average gas fee for a swap transaction reportedly amounted to around $79, while some users reported that estimated ETH swap fees rose as high as $400 in late February.
Despite Ethereum network users encountering massive fees, Ethereum showed significant growth in network usage in Q1 2024.
According to Coin98, total Ethereum transactions rose in the first quarter of 2024, with total transactions surging 8.4% quarter-over-quarter to hit more than 107 million transactions.
Additionally, the total value locked in the Ethereum decentralized finance ecosystem increased by 86% quarter-over-quarter to $55.9 billion. Tether remained the biggest Ethereum-based, or ERC-20, stablecoin by market capitalization in Q1 2024, adding 14% in market value since the previous quarter. Its biggest rival, USDC, increased ERC-20 market value by 23% quarter-over-quarter.
According to a recent analysis by Matrixport, the first quarter of 2024 was strong for most assets, including those in traditional finance. The Nasdaq returned up to 10%, and Nvidia showed returns of 81%.
Commodities traded strongly, with oil and gold returning 19% and 11% respectively. While United States bonds continued to sell off, Bitcoin and Ethereum returned increases of 57% and 45%, respectively, in the first quarter.
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Base and SOL memecoin market caps plummet 19% and 12% in 24 hours
The total market capitalizations of memecoins on Solana and Coinbase's Ethereum layer-2 Base have witnessed a significant drop in the last 24 hours, plunging 12% and 19% respectively across the two networks.
The memecoin sell-off arrived around the same time as a sharp decline in the price of Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency falling 4.94% in the last 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap data.
One crypto analyst said it’s common for memecoins to plummet when the price of BTC falters, however, another analyst linked the bearish trend to the humor simply running its course.
“I guess it stopped being funny,” crypto analyst and founder of Quantum Economics Mati Greenspan told.
“Pretty fitting that the top came in on April Fool’s day,” he added. “There is too much value on memecoins, it’s gotta end at some point, it can’t keep going forever.”
Solana's memecoin market cap stands at $8.29 billion, marking a 12% decrease within the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
The leading Solana-based meme token by total value — dogwifhat (WIF) — saw a 9% market cap decline on the day, amounting to a loss of $3.9 billion. Notably, WIF still accounts for nearly half of the total memecoin market share on Solana.
Across eight major crypto exchanges, WIF currently touts a total of $484 million in open interest (OI). However, $2.76 million in leveraged positions have been liquidated over the last 24 hours, including $1.89 million in short positions and $872,460 in long positions, per CoinGlass data.
Base's total market cap dropped 19% over 24 hours to $1.47 billion. The native token of a new Layer 3 network dubbed “Degen” (DEGEN) on Base, suffered the most, witnessing a 26.14% drop in market cap to $436.5 million.
The total crypto market cap — the value of all assets across the entire crypto sector — has also taken a 6.14% hit over the past 24 hours, currently standing at $2.45 trillion, per CoinMarketCap data.
Greenspan suggested that while Bitcoin is finding strong support levels, memecoins are seeing fluctuations beyond critical key price points.
“Bitcoin retracement is minuscule at the moment, memecoins are getting slaughtered,” Greenspan added.
Bitcoin dropped 4.94% over the past day to trade at $65,910. Meanwhile, WIF’s price has dropped 10.3% to $3.67.
Greenspan attributes this to the leading correlation that Bitcoin commands over other cryptocurrencies in the wider crypto market.
“It has directional correlation, when Bitcoin is up, they go up more, and when Bitcoin is down, they go down more than Bitcoin. This will hold up for a very long time,” Greenspan says.
Charles Edwards, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole shared a similar sentiment, telling that it's typical for memecoins of this nature to experience up to double the impact of Bitcoin's downturns.
“Altcoins like this are high beta on Bitcoin, so if Bitcoin drops 7-10% as it has over the last day or two, expect coins like this to drop at least 1.5 -2x more,” Edwards told, adding that excitement has been driving much of the prices for Solana and Base in recent times:
“There’s just generally been a lot of hype for SOL and Base ecosystems, but I would argue that they have a lot less tangible value than BTC and Ethereum.”
Crypto analyst and Crypto Banter podcast host Ran Neuner said in an April 2 X post that the memecoin market is nearing an oversaturation point.
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Memecoin madness is breaking the Bitcoin halving cycle
Crypto industry analysts are calling the current Bitcoin halving cycle the “weirdest” bull market on record, following a premature Bitcoin all-time high and a massive rush into memecoins.
On April 1, Chainlink community liaison Zach Rynes — aka “ChainLinkGod” — said, “This bull market has been weird” in a post to his 171,000 followers on X.
Historically, bull runs would see liquidity flow into Bitcoin before moving into Ether and other high-capitalization coins and finally moving down the chain.
However, the market “skipped a couple of steps that we have seen with previous cycles,” with flows going from BTC straight to memecoins, which is “a bit unusual,” commented Rynes.
Memecoin total capitalization surged to $70 billion on April 1, primarily driven by pumps in newly launched tokens, such as Solana-based Dogwifhat (WIF), Book of Meme (BOME) and older memecoins such as Pepe and Bonk (BONK).
Coinbase layer-2 network Base has also become a hotbed of memecoin speculation.
The recently launched Base-native token DEGEN is one example, which has skyrocketed an eye-watering 2,800% over the past month. The memecoin is an unofficial token that was distributed to the community on the decentralized social network Farcaster.
Rynes added that market fundamentals are not playing much of a role at the moment:
“There’s some retail money that’s entered, but nowhere near the levels we’ve seen before; we’re in an attention economy based on specific narratives, not real fundamentals.”
The sentiment was echoed by Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano on April 1, who said that after around a decade in crypto, “I can say with full confidence that this is, by far, the weirdest bull market crypto has ever had.”
He added that retail is not here “in any meaningful way” until the entire market goes up together:
“Not these isolated sector-specific pumps that are very obviously pushed by crypto natives and just involve a hot ball of money rotating around.”
Another factor adding to the weirdness of this market cycle is that Bitcoin has reached an all-time high before the halving. In previous cycles, the Bitcoin all-time high arrived the year after the halving.
The asset hit $73,734 on March 14, and the Bitcoin halving is just 18 days away now, due on April 20. Analysts have already predicted that the pre-halving retrace is over.
On April 1, technical analyst Moustache highlighted that BTC had reclaimed a key Fibonacci ratio level seen in previous cycles, but this time it was before the halving.
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Why is Ether (ETH) price up today?
The price of Ethereum’s Ether is up today, rising 3.5% to reach over $3,630 on March 31. ETH price is now up 18.75% from its local low of around $3,050, established over a week ago.
Capital rotation into Ether market
Ether's ongoing rise versus the U.S. dollar coincides with its equally strong gains against Bitcoin.
Notably, the widely-tracked ETH/BTC pair has gained roughly 2.5% on March 31 to reach 0.051 BTC suggesting a possible rotation of capital in the short term.
Additionally, Ether's performance against the broader cryptocurrency market has improved significantly over the last 48 hours, highlighted by a 2.16% increase in the Ethereum Dominance Index (ETH.D) from its low on March 29.
This trend underscores a rising flow of capital into the Ether market from competing altcoins, bolstering ETH's value in terms of the dollar.
Return of Ethereum whales
Ether's latest gains precede a period of accumulation among its richest investors, also known as whales.
According to data resource Glassnode, entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have increased their Ether reserves by approximately 1.15% in March.
Interestingly, this accumulation pattern has often been a precursor to significant price upsides, such as the one ETH/USD is witnessing today.
ETH funding rate hits three-week high
Ether's price gains today occur alongside a sharp rise in its funding rates in the perpetual contracts market.
Notably, as of March 31, the funding rate for Dogecoin perpetual futures contracts was 0.0591% per eight hours, or 1.24% per week, the highest since March 12, indicating that the cost of holding long positions is rising.
At the same time, Ether's open interest, or the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, has stabilized around $14 billion after reaching an all-time high three days ago.
A stabilizing open interest with a rising funding rate indicates traders are borrowing more to finance their long positions, expecting the asset's price to rise and hoping to amplify their returns.
Technicals: ETH price rebound
Ether's price gains have surfaced after testing the lower trendline of what appears to be its rising wedge pattern. The cryptocurrency has received further support from its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $3,485.
A rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that typically resolves after the price breaks below its lower trendline and falls by as much as the wedge's maximum length. So, ETH's price target for April appears around $3,280 if the rising wedge pattern plays out.
Conversely, ETH's price will likely climb to over $4,000 — toward the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement level — by April's end if the price breaks above the wedge's upper trendline.
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U.K. court freezes £6M of Craig Wright’s assets amid Bitcoin creator claim
A United Kingdom court sanctioned the freezing of £6 million ($7.6 million) in Craig Wright’s assets to prevent him from evading court expenses tied to his assertion of being Satoshi Nakamoto, the Bitcoin network’s creator.
The decision was made after Wright transferred some of his assets outside the U.K. after a court verdict debunking his claim to be Nakamoto. According to a U.K. court document, this prompted him to shift shares of his London firm, RCJBR Holding, to a Singaporean entity on March 18. Judge James Mellor wrote in the document,
“Understandably, that gave rise to serious concerns on COPA’s part that Dr Wright was implementing measures to seek to evade the costs and consequences of his loss at trial,”
The judge endorsed the ‘worldwide freezing order’ the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA) requested to address COPA’s total court expenses amounting to $8,471,225 (£6,703,747.91).
COPA was founded in 2020 “to encourage the adoption and advancement of cryptocurrency technologies and to remove patents as a barrier to growth and innovation.” Its 33 members include Coinbase, Block, Meta, MicroStrategy, Kraken, Paradigm, Uniswap and Worldcoin.
Wright, an Australian computer scientist, leveraged claims of being Satoshi Nakamoto to file copyright assertions concerning the Bitcoin network. For instance, he demanded two websites remove the Bitcoin white paper in January 2021.
In April 2021, COPA filed a lawsuit against Wright, contesting his assertions of being Satoshi Nakamoto and thereby possessing copyright to Bitcoin. Following testimonies from early Bitcoin developers like Martti Malmi, the judge concluded on March 14 of this year that the evidence overwhelmingly suggests Wright is not Nakamoto.
In 2023, the Wright sued 13 Bitcoin Core developersand a group of companies, including Blockstream, Coinbase and Block, for copyright violations relating to the Bitcoin white paper, its file format and database rights to the Bitcoin blockchain.
The Bitcoin Legal Defense Fund responded to the lawsuit, highlighting the trend of abusive lawsuits against prominent Bitcoin contributors, deterring development due to the associated time, stress, expenses, and legal risks. Wright filed the United States copyright registration for the Bitcoin white paper and the code within it in 2019.
The Bitcoin white paper is now subject to an MIT open-source license, allowing anyone to reuse and modify the code for any purpose. A court injunction would prevent Wright from further copyright claims on it.
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Cathie Wood’s Bitcoin ETF hits daily inflow record as BTC retests $72K
ARK 21Shares’ spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) managed to notch a record $201.8 million of inflows on Wednesday, almost quintupling its average daily inflows as Bitcoin just fell short of reaching $72,000.
Preliminary data from Farside Investors revealed that on March 27, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF's daily inflow was a four-fold increase from its daily average of $43.9 million since its launch on Jan. 11.
It also nearly tripled the amount from the previous day when ARK Invest saw inflows of $73.6 million, while there were no recorded inflows on March 25.
Meanwhile, the Valkyrie Bitcoin ETF (BRRR) witnessed $5.1 million in inflows, the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) saw $4.8 million in inflows, the Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) had $4 million in inflows and the VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) noted $1.9 million.
mTree Bitcoin ETF (BTCW) and Fidelity Investments Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) reported $1.5 million in inflows — all single-digit inflows. However, BlackRock data has yet to come in at the time of writing.
It comes as Bitcoin hit $71,670 before falling below the $69,000 support level before closing the day at $69,698. At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s current price is $69,464, as per CoinMarketCap data.
Crypto commentators, meanwhile, have begun to argue that investors are too fixated on Bitcoin’s short-term price fluctuations rather than considering the broader perspective.
In a March 28 post on X, crypto researcher Gumshoe informed his 28,900 followers that investors are opting for a micro perspective, focusing on daily price closures rather than considering the actual influx of funds into Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin ETFs seeing ATH inflows and people are panicking over the daily close of a candle,” he stated.
In a March 27 post on X, chief investment officer of Bitwise Matt Hougan stated that the majority of professional investors are still unable to buy Bitcoin ETFs, especially in the United Kingdom where “the FCA is still broadly aligned against crypto.”
“The truth is, most professional investors still cannot buy bitcoin ETFs. That will change through a series of 100+ individual due diligence processes over the next two years,” he stated.
Popular crypto commentator Bitcoin Munger told his 31,800 followers he believes the next $13 billion of inflows could “add $50K-$70K or more to the price.”
On March 18, as reported that a total of $13.2 billion in new capital has flowed into investment products such as spot Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date.
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Over $6B worth of BTC moved by 5th-richest Bitcoin whale
The fifth-largest Bitcoin holding address — also dubbed “37X” — has moved over $6 billion worth of BTC to three new addresses for the first time since 2019.
The Bitcoin whale transferred nearly its entire balance of 94,500 Bitcoin, worth $6.05 billion, on March 23, leaving only 1.4 BTC in the initial address, according to a March 25 X post by Arkham Intelligence. It wrote:
“$5.03B BTC was sent to bc1q8yj, with addresses bc1q6m5 and bc1q592 receiving $561.46M and $488.40M in BTC respectively. bc1q592 has since sent those funds onwards.”
The transfer occurred during a period of increased institutional interest in Bitcoin, driven by the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which will slash block issuance rewards in half when it occurs in late April.
Despite the Bitcoin price reaching an all-time high before the halving for the first time in history, the incoming supply issuance reduction is still not priced in to the full extent, co-founder of D8X decentralized exchange and former executive director at UBS told.
The over $6 billion BTC transfer occurred two days before Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 psychological price level on March 25 for the first time in 10 days. As investors have resumed accumulating BTC off exchanges, BTC supply on Coinbase reached a nine-year low of 344,856 BTC on March 18.
Bitcoin rose 6.4% in the 24 hours leading up to 9:53 am in UTC to trade at $71,222, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin’s current rally is mainly driven by the anticipation of the halving and the increased institutional inflows from the ten spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, Christopher Cheung, partner at digital asset funds Ten Squared, told in a research note:
“The involvement of traditional financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity in launching BTC products is further legitimizing cryptocurrency as an alternative asset class. This reduces the ‘career risk’ for investors who were previously hesitant to enter the crypto market.”
Bitcoin ETFs have reached a combined total of $58.3 billion in on-chain holdings, which represents 4.17% of the current BTC supply, according to Dune.
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Is Bitcoin’s pre-halving retrace over? 52K BTC accumulated on Sunday alone
Bitcoin’s pre-halving retrace may already be over following one of the largest accumulation days in years, which saw Bitcoin reclaiming the $71,000 price level.
On March 25, blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that Bitcoin just “caught traders off guard” with a rebound as “key stakeholders” had a huge accumulation day over the weekend.
Wallets, which it terms ‘sharks’ and ‘whales’ holding between 10 and 10,000 coins, accumulated 51,959 on March 24 worth around $3.4 billion at the time, the firm revealed. It added that this equates to 0.263% of the entire currently available supply being accumulated in one day.
As the Bitcoin halving approaches, three weeks away on or around April 19, “it would be unsurprising to see these wallets continue to grow, resulting in a positive impact on crypto-wide market caps,” it noted.
Crypto analysts were concerned about a more sizeable pre-halving retrace, assuming that history would rhyme with previous market cycles. However, BTC only fell around 17% from its March 14 all-time high of $73,738, dipping to $61,494 on March 20, according to CoinGecko.
Technical analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ said that if this ends up being the end of the pre-halving retrace, Bitcoin will have almost equaled the 2020 pre-halving retrace.
“Bitcoin pulled back -18% in this cycle whereas BTC retraced just over -19% in 2020,” he noted.
The analyst had previously predicted that this pre-halving retrace “would more likely be on the shallower side than on the deeper side” and could also be much shorter than has otherwise been the case historically.
Reporting on market volatility and last week’s dip on March 25, crypto research firm Kaiko, revealedthat after an analysis of buy and sell orders, “selling intensified following the U.S. market close.”
It concluded that “liquidity in the cryptocurrency market is not only fragmented across exchanges but also across trading pairs.”
BTC was trading up 5.2% on the day at $70,252 at the time of writing after hitting an intraday high of $71,000 in late trading on March 25.
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Binance executive reportedly escapes detention as Nigeria files tax evasion charges
A Binance executive detained by the Nigerian authorities has reportedly escaped detention using a fake passport, according to reports in a local publication citing sources familiar with the matter.
The news comes as other reports claim the Nigerian government has launched criminal proceedings against the exchange for tax evasion. According to local media, the charges were filed at the Federal High Court in Abuja on Monday.
Binance executive Nadeem Anjarwalla and his colleague Tigran Gambaryan have been detained in a guest house for several weeks in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital. However, Anjarwalla reportedly fled detention on Friday, March 22, after he was taken to a nearby mosque for prayers.
Anjarwalla reportedly flew out of Abuja on a Middle East airline. However, it is unclear how he managed to board the international flight, as his British passport, with which he entered Nigeria, remains in the custody of the Nigerian authorities.
According to an immigration official, the Binance executive fled Nigeria on a Kenyan passport, and authorities are now trying to determine how Anjarwalla acquired the passport, as he had no other travel documents while in custody.
According to reports, the men were granted several privileges while in detention, including using cell phones.
Anjarwalla, the regional manager for Binance in Africa, and Gambaryan, a United States citizen who is the head of Binance’s criminal investigations team, were taken into custody upon their arrival in Nigeria on Feb. 26.
The men were detained after a magistrate court in Abuja received a criminal complaint against them.
The court allowed the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to hold the two individuals for 14 days. It further mandated that Binance give the Nigerian government access to data and details of Nigerian traders using its platform.
However, after Binance refused to comply with the court decision, the court extended the detention of the officials for an additional 14 days to prevent the tampering of evidence.
The Nigerian government has taken strict measures against individuals and organizations involved with terrorist financing and money laundering linked to the Binance crypto exchange.
According to government reports, the Binance exchange has been used to launder nearly $21 billion.
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Do Kwon Released From Montenegro Prison With Extradition Verdict Still Underway: Report
Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon was released from prison in Montenegro on Saturday as the Supreme Court deliberates on extradition requests from the U.S. and South Korea, according to a Bloomberg report citing prison officials.
Kwon’s recent ruling mandating his extradition to South Korea is being challenged by Montenegro’s top prosecutor. Last week it emerged the Supreme State Prosecutor’s Office in Montenegro is escalating the case to the Supreme Court for review claiming errors were made.
Do Kwon was arrested in Montenegro in March 2023 after being caught using a fake Costa Rican passport traveling to Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
“We released Do Kwon from prison as his regular prison term for traveling with fake papers ended,” Montenegro prison director Darko Vukcevic told the news outlet. “Since he is a foreign citizen and his documents were withheld, he was taken for an interview to police directorate for foreigners, and they will deal with him further,” said Vukcevic.
Both South Korea and the U.S. had appealed to extradite Kwon, however, Montenegro’s minister of justice gave preference to South Korea. This decision is being challenged by Montenegro’s top prosecutor.
Do Kwon’s Arrest and Terra’s Collapse
Do Kwon is the architect behind the failed crypto project TerraUSD stablecoin, launched in 2022. As a stablecoin designed to be a utility token on the blockchain, Terra USD was pegged algorithmically 1:1 to the U.S. dollar.
The stablecoin lost its pegging, however, resulting in its collapse alongside LUNA, the Terra sister token. The United States and South Korean authorities went after Kwon, who escaped to Singapore to avoid South Korean prosecutors from opening his fraud charges.
Kwon was later apprehended in Montenegro and sentenced to four months imprisonment after he was caught trying to escape using a forged Costa Rican passport.
As it stands, South Korean authorities are escalating efforts to ensure Kwon faces prosecution for his alleged fraud cases and tax evasion.
Kwon, who denied the charges, claimed that the $40 billion implosion of the Terra ecosystem resulted from market forces and doesn’t indicate any criminal action.
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Bitcoin funding rates stay cool while BTC price coils beneath $71K
Bitcoin refused to give up $70,000 support into the April 11 Wall Street open as fresh United States macro data boosted the mood.
Bitcoin stays higher as U.S. PPI inflation drops
Data showed seesawing BTC price action, with bulls holding gains from the day prior.
The March print of the Producer Price Index (PPI) delivered a boost to risk-asset sentiment, coming in below expectations at 0.2% month-on-month.
This served to partially counteract the previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) overshoot, ultimately providing a mixed picture of inflationary forces. Overall, however, markets were expecting to wait longer than previously thought for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
“After yesterday's HOT inflation data, I'm honestly not sure how much today's reports matter. Markets are baking in ‘high for longer,’” Keith Allen, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, wrote in part of a response on X (formerly Twitter).
Alan, as well as others, focused on the upcoming block subsidy halving and current BTC price structures as more important focuses going forward.
“The bullish case for BTC is building around a series of higher lows. The bearish case is centered around the fact that bulls haven't been able to validate and R/S flip at the trend line, $69k or the 21-Day Moving Average,” he explained.
Alan added that $69,000 remained the “most critical” level to watch.
An accompanying video included a chart of BTC/USDT order book liquidity on largest global exchange Binance. This showed sellers in wait near $73,000, along with strengthening bid support near $67,000.
BTC longs "hesistant" near $71,000
Market observers meanwhile drew optimism from the landscape on exchanges, with funding rates staying low despite recent price upside.
“Bitcoin funding rates finally look healthy for the first time since $BTC climbed above $70,000,” Philip Swift, co-founder of statistics platform Look Into Bitcoin, concluded.
“Bitcoin needed this choppy consolidation to clear out the degens trying to go leverage long. Encouraging sign for bulls.”
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested that traders were now “hesitant” to long BTC due to successive rejections near all-time highs.
“$71.5K important to break and hold above. Then those all time highs should be a matter of time,” he summarized.
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With 10 days to the halving, analysts predict $150K Bitcoin top
With only 10 days left until the much-awaited halving, Bitcoin is still trading above the $70,000 psychological level, bolstering bullish long-term price predictions from market analysts.
Following the halving, Bitcoin price could appreciate over 160% to reach a cycle top of above $150,000, according to a research report by Bitfinex analysts shared.
“Using a straightforward regression model, we predict a 160% post-halving price surge in the next 14 months, taking the price to between $150,000 - $169,000.”
Bitcoin fell 2.2% in the 24 hours leading up to 11:50 am UTC to trade at $70,694. The world’s first cryptocurrency is up over 7.5% on the weekly chart, according to CoinMarketCap data.
However, the analysts note that there is more built-up selling pressure than in previous cycles due to Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high before the halving for the first time in crypto history.
While this is a sign of confidence for Bitcoin bulls, it could also introduce significant selling pressure, as 1.87 million BTC, or 9.5% of the circulating supply, was bought above the $60,000 mark. The analysts noted:
“This underscores the active engagement of Short-Term Holders at higher prices, reflecting evolving ownership dynamics amidst market activity and institutional influence through spot ETFs. Increased entity movement suggests a shift in the cycle towards the gradual distribution of dormant supply and profit-taking.”
However, Bitcoin prices could see a sharp decline during the halving period due to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening, which is removing liquidity from markets. Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, wrote in an April 8 blog post:
“That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving [...] It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets.”
Bitcoin ETFs amass 4.28% of circulating BTC supply
The inflows from the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a significant part of Bitcoin’s price rally.
By Feb. 15, the Bitcoin ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investment in the world’s largest cryptocurrency as it surpassed the $50,000 mark, according to CryptoQuant research.
Since their launch, the Bitcoin ETFs have amassed over 841,900 BTC, worth $59.2 billion, which represents 4.28% of the Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
With the accumulation pattern of the past two weeks, the Bitcoin ETFs are set to absorb 2.6% of Bitcoin supply per year, according to Dune.
Bitcoin ETFs amassed over $500 million worth of net inflows last week, with a total of $286 million worth of daily net inflows on April 8, during this week’s first trading day, according to Dune data.
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Bitcoin ‘pretty unlikely’ to revisit $50K price level, says analyst
The frequency of Bitcoin reaching higher support price levels, as well as the “lack of immediate froth” in the derivatives markets, suggests that its price is unlikely to retrace down to $50,000 anytime soon, according to a crypto analyst.
Senior analyst at digital asset fund UTXO Management, Dylan LeClair, explained in an analyst note on April 7 that if Bitcoin rises back into the $70,000–$75,000 price range, it will put significant pressure on short positions.
“As we’ve consolidated, an increasing amount of short liquidations are building from 70-75k,” he stated.
If Bitcoin’s price rises to $70,000, approximately $174.17 million will be liquidated, according to CoinGlass data.
Should it reach the upper boundary of LeClair’s range ($75,000), around $830 million worth of short positions would face liquidation.
This translates to roughly a 7.8% increase from Bitcoin’s current price of $69,344. Likewise, a similar percentage change of 7.5%, but in a downward movement, occurred on March 15, resulting in $525.2 million in liquidations.
LeClair explained although a decline in Bitcoin’s price to $50,000 — a 27% decrease from its current price at the time of writing — could trigger substantial liquidation of long positions, he doesn’t foresee it, considering the recent price shifts and the increasing support levels.
“While there is a large cluster of longs that could be taken out at ~50k, given the structure of higher lows and the lack of immediate froth in the derivatives landscape currently, I find it pretty unlikely we revisit that level,” he stated.
“Not impossible of course,” he warned. Bitcoin’s price last dipped below $50,000 on Feb. 13, hitting $49,725.
Just a day before, on Feb. 12, it reached $50,000, a level not reached since December 2021.
He backed up his claims by citing the recent action by global asset manager BlackRock, which updated its Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) prospectus on April 5, adding five big Wall Street firms as new authorized participants.
New members include ABN AMRO Clearing, Citadel Securities, Citigroup Global Markets, Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities
Prominent crypto traders are speculating over Bitcoin’s price ahead of the halving event, which is set for April 20. This event occurs every four years and will cut miner block rewards by 50%, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
As recently reported that Bitcoin’s price has risen around 658% since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020. If historical chart patterns were to repeat, Bitcoin’s price would reach $434,280 per coin by the 2028 halving if it performs similarly to the current cycle.
Crypto trader Rekt Capital believes there’s considerable potential for further upward movement in the short term. He told his 443,000 followers in an April 7 post that the market is approximately one-third through the “bull market” phase.
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Bitcoin taps $67.5K as 2% BTC price gains accompany US jobless claims
Bitcoin rebounded 2% on April 4 as a broad risk-asset rally followed encouraging signals from the United States Federal Reserve.
Data showed local BTC price highs of $67,51 on Bitstamp around the Wall Street open.
Bitcoin joined U.S. stocks indices in heading higher on the day, while gold cooled after setting new all-time highs above $2,300.
The day prior, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a dovish tone on economic policy, suggesting that interest rate cuts — a key boon for risk assets — would come before the end of 2024.
“We have held our policy rate at its current level since last July,” he said during a speech for the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum at the Stanford Graduate School of Business in Stanford, California.
“As shown in the individual projections the FOMC released two weeks ago, my colleagues and I continue to believe that the policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year.”
Powell referred to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the next of which due in May.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Toolnonetheless put the odds of a minimal 0.25% rate cut either at that meeting or the following one in June at 61% at best.
Meanwhile, the latest initial U.S. jobless claims came in slightly above expectations, at 221,000 versus 214,000 expected, providing additional upward impetus for market movement.
Analyzing current Bitcoin market structure, popular trader Pierre noted that the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour timeframes was providing support.
Optimistic as ever, fellow trader Jelle looked to promising signals on the daily chart as grounds to suspect upside continuation next.
Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) crossed back above the key 50 point at the daily close. As Cointelegraph reported, daily RSI had been circling its lowest levels in several months.
“Bitcoin has locked in a hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart!” he told followers on X (formerly Twitter).
“This divergence often shows up during pullbacks, during a strong bullish trend - signalling the next leg higher. Bring on $82,000.”
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Bitcoin is hedge against ‘horrible’ gov’t fiscal policy — Cathie Wood
Bitcoin is rising because it is a “flight to safety” against devaluing fiat currencies, says ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood.
In an interview with CNBC shared online on April 3, Wood described BTC as both a risk-on and risk-off investment.
Wood suggests fiat devaluation driving BTC price
The United States’ new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may have driven the mainstream narrativearound Bitcoin in 2024, but for ARK’s Wood, there is another key factor at play.
While institutions are finally getting some much-needed exposure to BTC, regular citizens are being presented with an even more important opportunity.
“There’s something else going on around the world,” she said.
“There are currency devaluations taking place that people are not talking about.”
Wood referenced the performance of currencies such as the Nigerian naira and Egyptian pound, both of which have lost around half their value against the U.S. dollar in recent months.
In these cases and others, it was deliberate government interventions — not direct market forces — that decimated the exchange rate.
“I think this is a flight to safety, believe it or not, taking place,” Wood continued.
“A hedge against devaluation, a hedge against a loss of purchasing power and wealth.”
The interview also brought up last year’s U.S. regional banking crisis, which fueled BTC price rises, and the Greek financial crisis of 2013.
“I think this is an insurance policy against rogue regimes or against just horrible fiscal and monetary policies,” Wood concluded.
More to Bitcoin than ETFs
As continues to report, Wood has kept up public support of Bitcoin this year as ARK’s ETF product goes head-to-head with the world’s biggest asset managers.
This week, however, the fund saw uncharacteristic net outflows of nearly $90 million.
“I suspect this has to do with quarterly rebalancing flows,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades commented in part of a response on X.
Accompanying data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham revealed preliminary outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust — which ARK’s outflows beat on April 2 — at around $130 million.
In March, Wood predicted a $1 million BTC price tag coming before 2030, chiefly due to a new influx of institutional money. The majority of the target market, she added, was not yet on board.
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Bitcoin traders ignore Silk Road sale as BTC price bounces to $66.5K
Bitcoin returned above $66,000 on April 3 as market observers brushed off Silk Road BTC sales.
BTC price claws back April lost ground
Data tracked a modest BTC price recovery after lows of near $64,500 after the daily close.
These came amid news that the United States government had moved more than 30,000 BTC ($2.1 billion), which it confiscated from the defunct marketplace Silk Road on-chain, subsequently selling 2,000 BTC ($133 million).
While this appeared to agitate an already nervous market, traders were quick to call for calm.
“In every market, we’ve got bullish and bearish narratives,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, wrote in part of a response on X.
“At peak bullish momentum, you'll see a huge impact of every bearish narrative. This time, it's the Silk Road Bitcoin being transferred.”
Van de Poppe added that he was “happy” that more of the BTC supply was now available.
Others stressed the insignificance of the amount sold.
On the buy-side, the latest data from sources, including United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside, puts the total inflows to the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at just over $40 million for April 2.
Combined with the $183 million seen on March 28, the previous Wall Street trading day with a positive net flow, the total easily eclipses the government sell-off.
Bitcoin “needs follow through from buyers”
In his latest market update, meanwhile, popular trader Skew hoped to see spot buyers maintain momentum.
“Nice sweep of the lows & good buyback reaction. Need follow through from buyers now,” he told X followers about BTC/USD on four-hour timeframes.
Even more optimistic was fellow trader Jelle, who stressed that Bitcoin bulls had already cleared the most significant long-term resistance hurdles.
“Corrections are normal; they do happen. You'll see them happening in every market circumstance, independent of whatever narrative,” Van de Poppe continued the day prior.
“In this case, I fancy a correction on Bitcoin as it would imply a healthier and organic market cycle. Dips are for buying in these markets.”
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Bitcoin clings to $65K — More losses ahead for BTC price?
Bitcoin’s price fell over 7.1% during the past day, slipping below the $65,000 mark for the first time since March 24.
The current week, or the 14th week of the year, is historically one of the worst weeks for Bitcoin’s price performance. BTC price fell an average of 8.33% on the 14th week of the year, according to Coinglass data.
Bitcoin price must sustain $65,000
Bitcoin price fell over 6% in the past 24 hours, reaching a daily low of $64,610 at 1:35 pm (UTC), while trading volume for the world’s largest cryptocurrency rose over 75% during the day to $46 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Bitcoin failed its post-breakout retest and the price momentum will continue slowing down as the Bitcoin halving approaches, argues popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital, in an April 2 X post:
“Bitcoin has failed its post-breakout retest. Bitcoin could still technically recover above the old all-time high of ~$69,000 before the new weekly candle close is in.”
Bitcoin’s price needs to be sustained above the $65,600 weekly range low to avoid further losses, added Rekt Capital.
Over $249 million worth of long leveraged positions would be liquidated across all exchanges, if Bitcoin price fell to to the $65,000 mark, according to Coinglass data.
Following the correction, Bitcoin has reset multiple key metrics that previously suggested the price was overheated, including the relative strength index (RSI), which fell to 48 on the daily timeframe, suggesting that Bitcoin is no longer overbought, according to Tradingview.
The RSI is a popular momentum indicator used to measure whether an asset is oversold or overbought based on the magnitude of recent price changes.
Bitcoin’s price correction can be mainly attributed to newcomers who entered the Bitcoin market in the past two months since the approval of the United States' spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to Andrey Stoychev, the head of Prime Brokerage at Nexo. He told:
For fresh adopters, Bitcoin’s move from $40,000 then to the current $65,000 potentially signifies an over 50% return in as little as 60 days – a sure profit-taking signal in the investment world. It's important to remember that market corrections are part of every market dynamic.
Stoychev expects a short-term correction thanks to new latecomers who want to invest in Bitcoin. He said:
"Bitcoin bull markets have come with returns, as three out of the first four cycles have surpassed previous highs. Looking back at 2020, Bitcoin surged 250% in just four months after breaking a new all-time high, suggesting a potential trajectory toward $231,000 if history repeats itself in this cycle.
Traders should be watching the $64,000 mark, with over $17.21 million worth of Bitcoin futures liquidation leverage on Binance, the world's largest exchange. An additional $9.92 million worth of BTC stands to be liquidated at the $63,500 mark, according to data.
Bitcoin long liquidations reach $109M as holders start selling
Over $152.5 million worth of leveraged Bitcoin positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with $109.11 million worth of long positions, according to Coinglass data.
Bitcoin’s sudden drawdown caused over $165 million of leveraged crypto liquidations in less than two hours, early morning on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the dormant Bitcoin supply has reawakened. Long-term holder (LTH) supply declined by 900,000 BTC since the peak of 14.91 million BTC in December 2023, with Grayscale accounting for a third, or 286,000 BTC, according to an April 2 report by Glassnode. The report noted:
“Conversely, the Short-Term Holder Supply has increased by +1.121M BTC, absorbing the LTH distribution pressure, as well as acquiring an additional 121k BTC from the secondary market via exchanges.”
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Bitcoin 5% flash crash leads to $165M in leveraged crypto liquidations
A sudden 5% drawdown in the price of Bitcoin on Tuesday has seen traders with leveraged exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rack up over $165 million in losses in less than 2 hours.
Bitcoin plunged 5% from $69,450 to as low as $65,970 in less than 30 minutes, in early hours on March 2 UTC, per TradingView data.
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin’s sharp wick down saw more than $165 million in leveraged positions wiped out, with just over $50 million in Bitcoin longs and more than $40 million in Ether longs accounting for the bulk of that figure.
Roughly $6 million in long positions on Dogecoin and $4 million in Solana were liquidated, trailing BTC and ETH.
Around the same time as the drawdown, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted a net outflow of $86 million, breaking a four-day positive inflow streak per FarSide data.
BlackRock’s ETF stood as the best-performing fund with a net inflow of $165.9 million, while Fidelity came in second with $44 million.
However, the inflows were weighed down by Grayscale’s GBTC posting $302 million in outflows, bringing the net daily outflows for all the funds to $85.7 million.
Tether wobbles from its peg
At the same time as the Bitcoin flash crash, the value of the U.S. Dollar-pegged stablecoin Tether also wobbled around 1%, briefly falling from its $1 peg to $0.988, according to datafrom CoinGecko and Google Finance.
It’s unclear if the USDT wobble was an error in the API of certain data trackers or if the value of the currency suffered a sudden loss — however, the brief depeg did not appear on other price trackers.
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Bitcoin price edges toward Q2 at $70K with all-time highs a key focus
Bitcoin returned to $70,000 after the March 29 daily close as traders counted down the final hours of a roaring Q1.
Fed's Powell reinforces "careful" position on rate cuts
Data showed old all-time highs at $69,000 forming tentative BTC price support into the weekend.
Bitcoin gained around $1,000 in the latter part of the day, seemingly aided by comments from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve.
Speaking in an interview at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference in San Francisco, California, Powell appeared cool on both inflation and the economic outlook.
The Fed, he stressed, was not in a hurry to enact Interest rate cuts — a key event for risk assets.
“Growth is strong right now, the labor market is strong right now and inflation has been coming down,” he said.
“We can and we will be careful about this decision — because we can be.”
June is currently markets’ favored bet for the first such cut to take place, with 61% odds of a 0.25% reduction at that month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
March 29, while a Wall Street holiday, also saw the latest print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — known to be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — match expectations at 2.5%.
BTC price analysis reveals key levels
Considering the hurdles for BTC price action next, attention continues to focus on the weekly, monthly and quarterly candle close.
For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, $69,000 was as significant as ever — a close above would mark Bitcoin’s highest-ever such close.
“BTC is going to continue whip-sawing and zig-zagging within this Weekly Range until the Weekly Candle Close,” he predicted on X (formerly Twitter).
“Weekly Candle Close above old All Time Highs of ~$69,000 gets Bitcoin closer to a breakout. Anything else in the meantime is consolidation.”
Others eyed positive on-chain signals, with fellow trader and Kevin Svenson highlighting the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) oscillator on daily timeframes.
A chart uploaded to X described MACD as “positioned for a cross-up,” with such an event coinciding with a potential BTC price breakout beyond all-time highs near $74,000.
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Bitcoin charts suggest the ‘dominance train’ is coming, traders say
A clear ascending triangle is forming on the Bitcoin dominance chart, signaling a potential surge in Bitcoin’s market share, according to several crypto traders. Some, however, argue it’s going to go the other way.
“The BTC dominance train is about to leave the station,” crypto trader and Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen declared to his 810,700 followers in a March 27 X post.
An ascending triangle pattern on a chart develops when the price consolidates between an upward trendline support and a horizontal resistance trendline.
Bitcoin’s dominance — measuring Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization — “is coming back in a big way,” crypto trader “Beanie” on X toldhis 194,800 followers on March 27.
Beanie suggested Bitcoin’s dominance usually grows in bear markets as crypto-native investors flock to it as a safe haven, preferring its stability over more risky and speculative digital assets.
Despite Bitcoin hitting an all-time high this month, Beanie added the current trend mirrors the 2018 bear market.
“This is far different from the 2021 bull market where dominance fell considerably from 70% to 40%. It actually parallels the 2018-2019 bear market,” they said.
Bitcoin held an 85% market dominance in March 2017, but by January 2018, it plummeted to an all-time low of 32.45%.
Bitcoin dominance is currently sitting at 50.1%, according to CoinStats data.
Not every trader agrees with the sentiment. Some hold that Bitcoin’s market share seems to be decreasing in the long term from a macro perspective.
Crypto trader Zero Ika told his 43,500 X followers that Bitcoin’s dominance is actually in a “long-term downtrend.”
“If we take a look at the whole picture considering the logarithmic chart, we can clearly see that BTC D. is in a long-term downtrend.”
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Bitcoin lacks support above $60K, chart shows as BTC price halts gains
Bitcoin swapped gains for consolidation at the March 26 Wall Street open as BTC price action gave bulls “mixed signals.”
Bitcoin downside "path of least resistance"
Data showed upside fading on the day, with BTC/USD dipping up to 3.2%.
Now circling the key $69,000 all-time high from 2021, Bitcoin appeared uncertain where to head next after snap gains over the prior 24 hours.
Market dynamics revealed arguments for both fresh bullish momentum and a continued correction.
Preliminary data from crypto intelligence firm Arkham put outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) at just $120 million — considerably less than average for the past week.
“Yesterday's ETF net flows saw a minor net inflow at +$15.6M. $GBTC saw a net outflow of -$350.1M,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in part of commentary while uploading the numbers to X (formerly Twitter).
“Regardless, price moved up swiftly during all this.”
At the same time, a lack of bid liquidity below spot price kept the odds of a return to lower support levels in play.
“What's clear, is that in terms of liquidity, the path of least resistance is down. That's not speculation,” Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, wrote in part of his latest BTC price analysis on X.
An accompanying video showed the nearest patch of significant bids still centred around $60,000 on the Binance BTC/USDT order book.
Going forward, Alan said that the upcoming weekly and monthly candle closes would be significant.
“With last week's close at $68.9k and last month's close at $61.1k we could (and should) see one or both of those levels challenged relative to the candle close/open on Sunday,” he added.
BTC price seen copying 2020 breakout
Continuing, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital stressed the importance of flipping $69,000 to definitive support next.
This, he explained in his latest YouTube video, would provide the foundation for price discovery, keeping BTC/USD within historical norms.
Flipping $20,000 over a two-week period in 2020, for instance, was what allowed Bitcoin to explore new all-time highs on and off for the subsequent eleven months.
As before, Rekt Capital focused his assessment on BTC price patterns around block subsidy halving events.
With the next due in mid-April, Bitcoin should be in the midst of its “pre-halving retracement” phase, with a “post-halving reaccumulation phase” to follow.
“First of all, we’ve satisfied the ‘pre-halving rally’ — we’ve seen a fantastic take us to new all-time highs. This pre-halving retrace of 18% has occurred, could be over, but of course, this pre-halving retrace exists to enable a sideways range — a reaccumulation structure that sees us just consolidate for a long time,” he said.
“Could it be the same case going forward right now? That’s something that I’m watching for.”
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South Korean police catch $4.1M crypto scam duo
South Korean police have caught a pair of fraudsters who stole $4.1 million (5.5 billion won) from a senior citizen with the promise of profitable crypto investments.
The Haeundae Police Station in Busan, South Korea, detained two individuals — in their 20s and 30s, respectively — for deceiving a senior citizen and stealing 5.5 billion spread across multiple transactions.
According to a local report, the victim was promised high returns on cryptocurrency investments between September 2022 and December 2022.
The scammers guaranteed 70% profits in a monthly investment of 1 billion won. The police quoted the fraudsters saying:
“It’s a boom period for coin (cryptocurrency). If you invest 1 billion won, I will call it 1.7 billion won a month later.”
The victim sent 5.5 billion won in total over six different transactions to the scammers, who then forged balance certificates to show as proof of investments.
During the scam, the victim was shown fake balance sheets of crypto investments and real estate contracts.
South Korean police said the fake balance sheet showed 20 billion won worth of cryptocurrencies, even though none of the victim’s 5.5 billion won funds made it to the crypto trading account.
While the police have detained the fraudsters in a timely manner, information about the recovery of funds has yet to be made public.
South Korea’s most infamous crypto entrepreneur, Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, was reportedly released from prison in Montenegro on March 23 amid extradition requests from the United States and South Korea.
Kwon is currently facing legal charges for the 2022 crash of the TerraUSD and LUNA (LUNA) ecosystems. Prison director Darko Vukcevic reportedly said by phone:
“We released Do Kwon from prison as his regular prison term for traveling with fake papers ended. Since he is a foreign citizen and his documents were withheld, he was taken for an interview to the police directorate for foreigners, and they will deal with him further.”
The decision to release Kwon reportedly came from the Council of the Supreme Court, which is set to review a decision that could grant or deny extradition to his native South Korea.
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BTC price battles for key $69K as Bitcoin nears short liquidation zone
Bitcoin broke above the key $69,000 at the March 25 Wall Street open as a BTC rebound gathered steam.
Bitcoin starts "TradFi" week with resistance rematch
Data tracked swift gains for BTC/USD, which reached $69,463 on Bitstamp.
Up nearly 3% on the day, Bitcoin wasted no time making up for the previous week’s losses.
The top of the previous cycle bull market, $69,000 nonetheless continued to act as a psychologically important line in the sand.
“Structurally price needs to close a HH above $69K with bullish momentum,” popular trader Skew wrote in part of his latest market update on X (formerly Twitter).
Skew noted that significant buy liquidity was situated only at $60,000, while major resistance was in place above current all-time highs near $74,000.
“$74K will be a significant price area imo, both in terms of supply & psychological,” adding that “smaller spot bids” were now moving closer toward spot price.
Adopting a conservative perspective, meanwhile, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, warned that a lack of nearby bid liquidity could easily sour the current BTC price recovery.
“Last month Bitcoin closed ~$61.1k and if bulls can close above that level this month it would be an unprecedented 7th consecutive green M close for #BTCUSDT,” he told X subscribers.
“I'm certainly not saying that it can't happen because it absolutely can, but I'm banking, err betting, on the fact that price will at least retest support before the M close.”
Alan referred to the monthly close as a potential area of volatility, arguing that a retracement could still come despite his “fairly bullish” longer-term bias.
“With less than a week to go for the Monthly close and less than a month to go for the Halving, I'm watching to see if bids start moving up to push price to a green M close or if they continue to thin out in the range,” he wrote.
“If the latter happens, I'm focused on that concentration of bid liquidity in the $58k - $60k range which correlates perfectly with the 50-Day MA and would represent a 20% correction from the new ATH.”
BTC liquidation risk mounts
Liquidation data reinforced the stakes for those on the wrong side of the Bitcoin trade.
According to monitoring resource CoinGlass, $50 million of BTC shorts was liquidated in the 24 hours to the time of writing.
A break above $70,600, meanwhile, would tap $500 million in short leverage.
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Bitcoin price clear for new record high as GBTC outflows drop to $170M
Bitcoin could already be seeing “momentum turning” as institutional BTC outflows recede.
The latest data from sources, including United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside shows the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) losing just $170 million on March 22.
BTC price consolidating before all-time high retest?
The United States Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been at the center of attention for arguably the wrong reasons this week.
Inflows have declined significantly versus the start of March, while GBTC outflows hit record highs, producing five consecutive days of net reductions in assets under management (GBTC).
The timing appears not to be random — as Cointelegraph reported, bankrupt crypto lender Genesis is rumored to have been selling its GBTC position throughout the week.
Should this now have concluded, downward pressure on ETF trends could ease.
“Net flows out of the Bitcoin ETFs dropped to -$51.6mil yesterday, helped by a big slowdown in GBTC selling,” investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne noted on X (formerly Twitter) about the flows data.
“Momentum turning?”
The pivot point theory is also shared by statistician Willy Woo, creator of on-chain data resource Woobull.
In a recent X post, Woo revealed a new model comparing ETF inflows with BTC price action. While he did not give specific information on which data is used for the metric, he suggested that the most intense phase of offloading might be over.
“According to this new model I've been playing with, the worse of the sell down in this first phase of the consolidation may be over,” he commented.
“I'm kinda expecting consolidation to run right into the halvening, thus more choppiness through April.”
Pseudonymous commentator WhalePanda agreed on the outlook.
In his own assessment of the week’s flows, he remained optimistic on near-term BTC price action, suggesting that tailwinds for a return to price discovery could be in place by next week.
“Now we'll most likely have a sideways weekend and potentially consolidate a bit more next week before the path up to new ATH,” he wrote.
“Lots of people shaken out, lots of people waiting for lower. With current emission schedule at $64k we need $57.6 million of inflows per day to scoop up the daily mined coins. In less than a month with halving that total is $28.8 million.”
GBTC is Bitcoin's "biggest headwind"
Others were more critical of GBTC, which now retains barely half of the AUM it had when it converted to an ETF in January.
“The whole ecosystem is going to be much healthier when GBTC has zero AUM,” crypto author and educator Vijay Boyapati argued on March 23.
“It was the product at the center of the 2022 market collapse and it's the product whose net outflows are the biggest headwind to Bitcoin now.”
As a whole, the spot Bitcoin products represent the most successful ETF launch in history. Since they began trading, cumulative flows have reached $12.15 billion.
Earlier, Cathie Wood, CEO of one of the ETF providers, ARK Invest, said that the bulk of institutional exposure is still to come.
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